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OPEC Affirms Production Ceiling of 30mbd
ETF Securities Commodity ETP Weekly OPEC Affirms Production Ceiling of 30mbd
Long natural gas ETPs see highest inflows since December 2014.
Oil market glut drives US$37.2mn out of long oil ETPs.
We are hosting a webinar at 2pm today to cover Friday’s OPEC meeting featuring Amrita Sen, a renowned oil analyst from Energy Aspects
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Agricultural commodities were the outperformers this week, with weather remaining a catalyst. In the case of coffee, the potential for crop damage during the Brazilian winter sparked fears of lower harvest. Wheat also posted a better than 7% gain for the week, as hard winter wheat quality dipped and the threat of rainfall potentially delaying harvests. With an El Niño expected to last most of this year, weather is likely to continue to be a source of volatility in agricultural markets this year. The OPEC cartel maintained the status quo as widely expected. A better-than-expected jobs report out on Friday in the US could place upward pressure on the US dollar and weigh on commodities this week.
Long natural gas ETPs see highest inflows since December 2014. Bargain hunters drove US$19.2mn into long natural gas ETPs as the price of US natural gas fell a further 3% last week (-7% in the past month). Gas in storage rose more than expected, driving its price lower. The US summer is a seasonal high demand period, driven by the need to power air conditioning. ETC investors appear to view the recent weakness in prices as an aberration and look for demand to strengthen during the course of the summer.
Oil market glut drives US$37.2mn out of long oil ETPs. A further US$3.8mn went into short oil ETPs, underscoring bearish sentiment. Investors widely anticipating the OPEC’s affirmation of its production ceiling of 30 million barrels per day, withdrew holdings of long oil. Managed money positions in ICE Brent crude futures have dropped by over 35% to the lowest level seen since early April. OPEC focused on the rising demand for oil as a supporting factor for its decision. In reality OPEC produces more than 31 million barrels per day, but the group claimed it will adhere to the ceiling more closely in the future, which was seen by some as a bullish signal. Nonetheless, we are skeptical. We believe that the market remains overly optimistic about the pace of supply tightening by non-OPEC producers and we could see a pull-back in price before supply does actually tighten later this year, potentially opening attractive entry points for investors. US stocks remain significantly elevated compared to longer term averages, despite rig counts falling by 60%. We acknowledge US commercial crude stocks are moving in the right direction after falling for the fifth consecutive week, but with the threat of Iran, Iraq and Syria ramping up production, the global glut could be extended.
The OPEC cartel promises to study the impact of falling investment on supply by its next meeting. It is currently concerned about the deferral of investment on oil production stability. OPEC has urged non-OPEC countries to also cooperate more in driving oil market stability. However, many markets including the shale industry in the US, do not have a forum for cooperation. These industries have many small firms operating independently. So it is doubtful that the cooperation the cartel is seeking will materialise. A possible outcome, as Saudi uses up more of its spare capacity, is that the more nimble US shale industry becomes the balancing agent in global oil supply when demand rises.
Key events to watch this week. A host of Chinese data ranging from inflation to exports to credit will give the market a sense for how the world’s largest consumer of commodities’ economy is faring. The USDA WASDE report will garner particular attention after the volatility in agricultural prices in recent weeks.
Video Presentation
Nitesh Shah, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.
Important Information
This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.
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IncomeShares passed three milestones in August. Assets under management climbed to almost $66 million, cumulative fund flows topped $72 million, and turnover across London and Xetra listings reached over $27 million. Palantir paid the highest annualised distribution yield at 57.11%. The sections below break the numbers down in more detail.
Cumulative fund flows
Fund flows track how much money investors put into or take out of IncomeShares ETPs (exchange-traded products). Positive flows mean more money coming in than going out – a sign of demand for the products.
Flows have risen every month this year. In January, they stood at $13.7 million. By the end of August, they reached $72.4 million. That’s over $8 million of new money added in August alone – the biggest increase since May.
Trading turnover
Turnover is the total dollar value of IncomeShares ETPs bought and sold on the exchanges. Higher turnover means more activity and liquidity for investors.
Turnover reached $27.3 million in August – the highest on record and more than double January’s $13.0 million. London listings (USD and GBP combined) made up $14.2 million, with Xetra listings close behind at $13.1 million. Both exchanges have seen steady increases through 2025, showing rising interest in income options strategies across the board.
Note: Figures use IDC FX rates as of the August month-end to convert GBP and EUR into USD. We apply the same August rates to all prior months to compare turnover on a like-for-like basis.
Assets under management (AUM)
AUM is the total value of assets held across all IncomeShares ETPs. It grows when new investors buy in, or when the underlying assets rise in value.
AUM grew from $13.8 million in January to $65.8 million at the end of August. It was also $8 million more than in July. Steady inflows and consistent income distributions are helping the product range build scale.
Distribution yields
Distribution yields represent the annualised income paid to investors as a percentage of the current NAV (net asset value), based on the latest month’s yield. IncomeShares ETPs aim to generate this income from selling options. Yields change each month depending on strategy performance and market volatility.
Annualised August yields (ranked highest to lowest):
• Palantir Options ETP (PLTY): 57.11%
• Nasdaq 100 Options ETP (QQQY): 46.44%
• Coinbase Options ETP (COIY): 43.60%
• AMD Options ETP (AMDY): 41.43%
• Tesla Options ETP (TSLI): 40.97%
• Broadcom Options ETP (AVGY): 40.96%
• MicroStrategy Options ETP (MSTY): 37.61%
• Alibaba Options ETP (BABY): 35.90%
• S&P 500 Options ETP (SPYY): 32.95%
• NVIDIA Options ETP (NVDI): 28.42%
• Alphabet Options ETP (GOOI): 18.15%
• Magnificent 7 Options ETP (MAGO): 16.87%
• Apple Options ETP (AAPPY): 15.55%
• 20+ Year Treasury Options ETP (TLTY): 12.38%
• Amazon Options ETP (AMZI): 12.00%
• Silver+ Yield Options ETP (SLVY): 11.56%
• Meta Options ETP (METY): 11.32%
• Gold+ Yield Options ETP (GLDI): 6.74%
• Microsoft Options ETP (MSFY): 6.54%
Our Palantir ETP topped the list with an annualised yield of 57.11% for August, up from 30.57% in July. The stock was volatile in August, trading between $142 and $190. That wider range increased option premiums, which boosted the ETP’s yield. The ETP sells put options on Palantir stock and holds shares – the strategy used for all our single stock ETPs and the Magnificent 7 product.
The Nasdaq 100 ETP paid an annualised yield of 46.44% in August, up slightly from 44.52% in July. At the other end, Gold+ and Microsoft stayed below 7%, reflecting relatively calmer conditions in their underlying assets.
The table below shows the annalised distribution yields for all IncomeShares ETPs so far this year. Note that the bottom eight ETPs launched in late June, so they only have yields for July and August.
Key takeaways
• Fund flows climbed to $72.4 million, with August adding more than $8 million.
• Turnover hit a record $27.3 million, split almost evenly between London and Xetra.
• Palantir topped the yield table at 57%, with Nasdaq 100 and Coinbase also paying above 40%.
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