Oil prices fall as OPEC has no positive surprise up its sleeve. OPEC and its non-OPEC partners have agreed to freeze production at current levels for another nine months. Current production levels are approximately 1.8mn barrels per day lower than they were in October 2016, if the output figures are to be believed. The market has been led to believe that this would be the likely outcome from the meeting after the major players had already announced that a nine-month extension was palatable. With the market conditioned to expect surprises emerging from the “smoke and mirrors” format of OPEC meetings, the result of the current meeting has been an anti-climax.
The Saudi-Arabian led cartel has sought to bolster prices after the price collapse that emerged when its 2014 experiment failed and crippled many OPEC member economies. Saudi Arabia wants to sell part of its state oil company to boost its financial coffers, which is the chief reason why it wants oil prices to trade above US$50/bbl. Other members have followed and sacrificed production as higher prices have helped turn revenues around. However, revenues are unlikely to reach levels these countries are accustomed to.
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Oil continues to trade in a tight range with the upper bound at US$55/bbl. As we argued in “OPEC’s choices: double down or do nothing”, a deeper cut would be need to shock the market to drive prices higher. With US, Canadian and Brazilian production continuing to grow and global demand remaining soft, global oil inventories will remain elevated. OPEC’s target of bringing down the level of OECD oil inventories to its 5-year average will continuingly be undermined by the growth in US shale oil.
Driven by the price war that OPEC initiated in 2014, US shale oil players are leaner than they have ever been and can make profit at considerably lower prices than in 2014.
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At current prices we expect US production to grow. Rigs are considerably more efficient than they used to be. The US is close to producing record amounts of oil with almost half the number of rigs as there were at the peak in 2014. Persistent and nimble US producers are likely to continue to undermine the efforts of OPEC. In the absence of a deeper cut, we expect prices to continue to grind lower, possibly below US$50/bbl.
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We expect OPEC compliance to its agreement to fade as has historically been the pattern. With Saudi Arabia having the most to lose from a collapse in the deal, we expect other members to free-ride on its efforts to keep a lid a production. As other members question what will happen after the Saudi Aramco IPO, we doubt the notion of ‘solidarity’ is as strong as being portrayed in front of the press. Although Russia, the largest non-OPEC member in the deal, claims to have been cutting more than is needed, it contradicts the data in the OPEC monthly reports.[1] As compliance comes under greater scrutiny, prices are likely to weaken. We continue to believe that oil will range trade between US$40-55/bbl.
[1] In OPEC’s November report, Russia was producing 10.59mb/d in October and in OPEC’s May report, Russia was producing 10.39mb/d in April. That only amounts to a 200k b/d cut, compared to the 300k b/d Russia signed up to for each month.
Nitesh Shah, Research Analyst at ETF Securities
Niteshis a Commodities Strategist at ETF Securities. Nitesh has 13 years of experience as an economist and strategist, covering a wide range of markets and asset classes. Prior to joining ETF Securities, Nitesh was an economist covering the European structured finance markets at Moody’s Investors Service and was a member of Moody’s global macroeconomics team. Before that he was an economist at the Pension Protection Fund and an equity strategist at Decision Economics. He started his career at HSBC Investment Bank. Nitesh holds a Bachelor of Science in Economics from the London School of Economics and a Master of Arts in International Economics and Finance from Brandeis University (USA).
Alla säger att Bitcoin var den bäst presterande tillgången under det senaste decenniet … och det var det.
Men här är något som de flesta inte berättar för dig:
Glöm aldrig bort historien
Den bästa tillgången under ett decennium är nästan aldrig den bästa under nästa.
Låt oss titta på de senaste 7 decennierna
1960-talet? Amerikanska aktier var hjältarna, ledda av tillväxtföretagen ”Nifty Fifty”. Men på 1970-talet slog inflationen till hårt och samma aktier sjönk med nästan 50 %.
1970-talet? Guldpriset steg kraftigt med över 1 400 % … och föll sedan med 50 % på 80-talet.
1980-talet? Japans aktiemarknad exploderade … sedan kraschade den och gick in i årtionden av stagnation.
1990-talet? Teknikaktier (Nasdaq) steg… och kollapsade sedan i dotcom-kraschen.
2000-talet? Tillväxtmarknader och råvaror dök upp … men underpresterade sedan under 2010-talet.
2010-talet? Bitcoin och Big Tech blev paraboliska … nu står de inför reglering, volatilitet och långsammare vinster.
Vad är lärdomen?
Att jaga det som var hett leder oftast till besvikelse.
De största avkastningarna kommer ofta från platser som ingen uppmärksammar.
Så innan du listar det senaste decenniets vinnare, fråga dig själv:
Vart ska pucken ta vägen härnäst, inte dit den redan har varit?
Amundi S&P 500 Equal Weight UCITSETFAcc (EQSP ETF) med ISIN LU2991918421, syftar till att följa S&P 500® Equal Weight-indexet. S&P 500® Equal Weight (EWI)-indexet följer amerikanska large caps, större företag och är likaviktade med en fast vikt på 0,20 %.
Den börshandlade fondens totala kostnadskvot (TER) uppgår till 0,12 % per år. Amundi S&P 500 Equal Weight UCITSETFAcc är den billigaste ETFen som följer S&P 500® Equal Weight-indexet. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets utveckling syntetiskt med en swap. Utdelningarna i ETFen ackumuleras och återinvesteras.
Amundi S&P 500 Equal Weight UCITSETFAcc är en liten ETF med 86 miljoner euro i förvaltningstillgångar. Den börshandlade fonden lanserades den 18 mars 2025 och har sitt säte i Luxemburg.
Investeringsmål
Amundi S&P 500 Equal Weight UCITSETFAccsträvar efter att så nära som möjligt, oavsett om trenden är stigande eller fallande, replikera resultatet för S&P 500 Equal Weight NTR Index (indexet), och att minimera spårningsfelet mellan delfondens substansvärde och indexets resultat. Delfonden strävar efter att uppnå en spårningsfelnivå för delfonden och dess index som normalt inte överstiger 1 %.
Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel Nordnet, SAVR, DEGIRO och Avanza.
As April winds down, markets remain on edge, with escalating tariffs and renewed trade tensions keeping volatility in focus. In this summary of our full-length newsletter, we spotlight gold and gold equities, both of which have surged to record levels. We also take a step back from the day-to-day noise in crypto to explore the broader shifts in the regulatory landscape in our latest Whitepaper and present Celestia in detail. Finally, we assess how Moat indexes have held up and evolved amid the turbulence.
Gold & Gold mining equities tend to shine during stress periods
Source: VanEck, World Gold Council.
Gold has attracted renewed interest from investors amid concerns about inflation, currency volatility, and overall market uncertainty. Gold mining companies have recently reported improved profit margins and cash generation, with some initiating share buybacks and maintaining relatively strong balance sheets. Despite these developments, many continue to trade below their historical valuation averages.
While historical trends indicate that gold and gold mining equities have outperformed during certain periods of market stress, these patterns may not repeat under different economic conditions. Performance can be influenced by a range of factors including interest rates, central bank policy, geopolitical developments, and investor sentiment.
⚖️ Whitepaper Highlights: How New Crypto Regulations May Shape the Future
Cryptocurrencies are entering a new era. With the re-election of Donald Trump and the implementation of the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation, digital assets are moving into a landscape defined not just by innovation, but also by regulatory clarity.
MiCA’s structured and transparent approach aims to promote legitimacy, safeguard investors, and enhance trust in digital asset markets across Europe. It could also serve as a blueprint for other jurisdictions looking to regulate crypto effectively.
Most blockchains, like Ethereum or Bitcoin, are monolithic which means they perform all major functions (consensus, data availability, and execution) on a single layer. This design ensures security but according to new modular networks, limits scalability and flexibility.
The modular blockchain thesis, which Celestia is leading, proposes separation of layers and respective responsibilities in the network.
Note: This article in not accessible to our UK readers.
🌊 Riding the Gold Wave
Chasing the Vein: Fund Flows into Gold Miners
Source: Mining.com. Data as of 21 March 2025. Note: Data covers 493 funds with combined assets under management of $62 billion.
U.S. equity markets experienced significant declines during the month of March. Meanwhile, spot gold price recorded new all-time highs, surpassing the $3,000 per ounce mark on 14 March and closing at a record price of $3123.57 on March 31, a 9.30% ($265.73) monthly gain. As of 31 March, gold prices have risen by 93.61% over the past five years (1). Investors should keep in mind that past performance is not representative of future results.
The gold miners, as represented by the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDMNTR), outperformed significantly, up 15.51% during March (2). This gain reflects both their operational leverage to rising gold prices and market perceptions of relative value. However, gold miners can also be subject to heightened volatility, operational risks, and sensitivity to commodity price swings.
While gold and gold equities may serve as diversifiers in a portfolio due to their historically low correlations with many asset classes, investors should remain mindful of the inherent risks, including price volatility, currency movements, and shifts in investor sentiment that can lead to rapid reversals in performance.
Market turbulence in March weighed on stocks. The Moat Index was not immune to the market turmoil, as it declined along with the broad U.S. equity market ending the month lower. However, the Moat Index showed resilience relative to the S&P 500—thanks in part to defensive sector resilience and underweight exposure to mega-caps.
At the same time, the SMID Moat Index lagged small and mid-caps in March. Smaller U.S. stocks were also impacted by global trade tensions and economic growth concerns with the broad small- and mid-cap benchmarks falling during the month. However, year-to-date, the SMID Moat Index remains ahead of the broader small- and mid-cap markets.
(1) Source: World Gold Council, ICE Data Services, FactSet Research Systems Inc.
(2) Source: Financial Times.
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