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OFAC Compliant Ethereum, Tether Strengthening Reserve Backing, and More!
Markets have struggled over the past week on the back of inflation pressures sandwiched by the burgeoning war in Europe and the COVID-zero measures in China, adding flame to the fires of both crises of energy and supply. Returns on Bitcoin and Ethereum have been persevering, increasing by almost 3% and 4% respectively over the past week. The biggest headline was the $114M exploit on Solana’s Mango Market that dragged its total value locked (TVL) down by over 20%, as shown in Figure 1; the attacker later revealed himself, claiming that he is part of a group of investors that benefited from the “highly profitable trading strategy” and that their actions were legal open market actions. Aside from that, the biggest losers within major crypto categories were Cardano and Optimism, whose TVLs declined by -8%. Ethereum’s largest decentralized exchange increased by 7% and its TVL declined by almost 9%. Uniswap Labs’ $165M Series B round raised last week is expected to improve user experience and in turn boost performance.
Figure 1: TVL and price development of major crypto sectors
Source: 21Shares, Coingecko, DeFi Llama
Key takeaways:
• America’s oldest bank begins accepting crypto holdings
• More than 50% of Ethereum’s newly produced blocks are now OFAC-compliant
• Tether fully eliminates its commercial paper exposure backing its reserves
• Uniswap prepares to launch NFTs
Spot and Derivatives Markets
Figure 2:
Source: Bitcoin Magazine Pro
BTC-denominated open interest reached an ATH relative to the asset’s market cap, which could signal a breakout move to either side. However, as Bitcoin’s funding rate has been range-bounding near the neutral territory since June, it’s becoming difficult to gauge market sentiment as this tight range signifies that a roughly growing equal number of longs and shorts are being placed. Bitcoin’s dampening volatility has caused the asset to undergo moderate swings between the 18K-20.5K levels. That said, with BTC’s volatility at an ATL that hasn’t been seen since 2020, a hot CPI print in November could bring about a tense move for the asset
On-chain Indicators
Figure 3:
Source: Glassnode, Blockware Solutions
As shown in Figure 3, the total supply in the hands of long-term Bitcoin holders has reached a new all-time high of over 13.5M Bitcoins. This reiterates the conviction that the value of Bitcoin lies in its long-term investment, given that long-term holders are the winners of Bitcoin’s rally.
Next Week’s Calendar
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Research Newsletter
Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com
Disclaimer
The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.
• Global crypto asset adoption rates are significantly higher than previously estimated.
• The data generally suggest that both the US and Europe may be at the cusp of mass retail adoption – a situation often referred to as “Hyperbitcoinization” in the context of Bitcoin.
• Chances are that the growth of adoption will surprise to the upside due to the fact that we are most likely at the inflection point from ”Early Adopters” to ”Early Majority”.
Trump recently made a public statement implying that 50 million Americans already held ”crypto”. The most recent surveys among US consumers seem to support this number.
It is no surprise that cryptoassets have become a major topic during the US presidential election as the parties have become increasingly aware that cryptoasset users could play a significant role at the ballot.
Both Trump and Robert Kennedy Jr. are scheduled to deliver a pro-Bitcoin speech at the upcoming Bitcoin conference in Nashville over the weekend.
It seems as if cryptoasset users are not a small minority anymore that can be ignored.
Here are some recent US bitcoin and crypto adoption surveys for comparison (% of total population in brackets):
• Security.org: 93 mn (28%)
• Unchained: 86 mn (26%)
• Statista: 53.6 mn (16%)
• Morning Consult: 44.2 mn (13%)
• Finder: 38.4 mn (11%)
In general, cryptoasset adoption has been on the rise globally.
A recent global survey among institutional investors conducted by Fidelity even implies that 51% of surveyed institutional investors have already invested into cryptoassets such as Bitcoin.
Another recent consumer survey by Statista implies that approximately every 5th person (21%) worldwide has already invested into cryptoassets.
However, it’s important to highlight that among the top 10 regions with the highest adoption rates, 8 regions are developing countries.
So, cryptoasset adoption rates are even significantly higher among developing countries than in developed countries that often suffer from chronically high inflation rates and weak domestic currencies.
That being said, the data generally suggest that both the US and Europe may be at the cusp of mass retail adoption – a situation often referred to as “Hyperbitcoinization” in the context of Bitcoin.
The reason is that technological adoption in general tends to accelerate at the threshold from the so-called “early adopters” to the “early majority” which is around 16% adoption rate based on the model of technological adoption famously put forth by Rogers (1962).
Global adoption rates are already at 21% while adoption rates in the US and Europe are at around 16% and 14%, respectively. So, there is a strong case for an acceleration of adoption rates in these regions and globally over the coming years.
Recent political developments in the US also imply that Bitcoin and cryptoassets are gradually becoming mainstream.
Trump has recently endorsed domestic Bitcoin mining in the US and both Democrats and Republicans have started accepting crypto payments for campaign financing.
The big success of the spot Bitcoin ETFs this year and the fact that additional types of spot crypto ETFs are being launched marks a significant shift in sentiment among US regulators in this regard.
In short, chances are that the growth of adoption will surprise to the upside due to the fact that we are most-likely at the inflection point from ”Early Adopters” to ”Early Majority”.
Bottom Line
• Global crypto asset adoption rates are significantly higher than previously estimated.
• The data generally suggest that both the US and Europe may be at the cusp of mass retail adoption – a situation often referred to as “Hyperbitcoinization” in the context of Bitcoin.
• Chances are that the growth of adoption will surprise to the upside due to the fact that we are most likely at the inflection point from ”Early Adopters” to ”Early Majority”.
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