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Nickel – Electrification may boost demand

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7 år sedan

den

20 februari, 2018

Redaktionen

ETF Securities Commodities Research: Nickel – Electrification may boost demand

Highlights

Nickel demand continues to outstrip supply.
China’s shift to quality rather quantity may help nickel demand.
Mine closures in Philippines constrain supply.
Electrification of vehicles likely to continue to increase demand for nickel in battery usage.

Industrial metals as a group have staged a recovery since 2016, following five consecutive years of decline between 2011 and 2015. Although zinc is the only metal to have recovered its losses (in nominal, not real terms) since 2011, the Bloomberg Commodity index has rallied 65% since it hit a trough at the beginning of 2016. Nickel is the furthest away from 2011 prices, despite having risen 77% from its 2016 lows (source: Bloomberg). We believe that there is further potential for price gains amid structural changes in demand and supply.

Supply deficit

Mine supply has been unable to keep up with demand in recent years as miners cut back on investment during the period of weak prices. According to the UN International Nickel Study Group, primary nickel production will fall short of primary nickel usage by 148,000 tonnes (8.7% of demand) in 2018, marking the third consecutive year of a supply deficit in the metal.

Steel production forecast to grow

According to the International Stainless Steel Forum, steel production in 2017 grew by approximately 5% and is forecast to grow by around the same rate in 2018. Steel production accounts for the lion’s share of nickel consumption (67%).

China’s focus on environment

Nickel Pig Iron (NPI), a low-grade ferronickel primarily produced in China (for domestic usage), has experienced strong growth in recent decades as China’s urbanisation and construction boom has boosted demand for the metal. However, NPI production fell in 2016 and 2017 and China’s focus on better environmental outcomes could reduce its reliance on NPI in favour of higher quality nickel products. That shift will tighten the supply of higher grades of nickel ore. China’s demand for global nickel is likely to rise.

Philippine mine suspension still under review

When Philippine interim environment minister, Regina Lopez, failed to secure a permanent position, her decision to shutter 23 of the country’s 41 mines was widely thought to be reversed. The mines were closed due to environmental violations (see Metal supply to tighten as environmental concerns enforced). However, nine months on from her dismissal, the mines have not reopened. The Philippine government has not quite capitulated to miner lobbying power. Although it now allows open pit mining (which was banned by Lopez), it has appointed a team of 25 experts to assess mine closures with a report expected in Q1 2018. The Philippines was the largest nickel ore producer in 2016. Given the strength of evidence that there were environmental violations in the first review that led to the initial ban, we expect that a significant portion of mine supply will remain constrained after this second review.

Electrification of vehicles

Demand for electric vehicles is expected to grow substantially from a relatively low base. In 2016, the stock of electric vehicles was around 2 million (0.2% of total stock). The IEA forecast that by 2020 there will be between 9 and 20 million electric vehicles and by 2025 there will be 40-70 million vehicles. This growth in electric vehicles usage presents a structural change to the automobile market.

Notes: The RTS incorporates technology improvements in energy efficiency and modal choices that support the achievement of policies that have been announced or are under consideration. The 2DS is consistent with a 50% probability of limiting the expected global average temperature increase to 2°C. The B2DS falls within the Paris Agreement range of ambition, corresponding to an average increase in the global temperature by 1.75°C.

Electric vehicles – whether pure plugin or plugin-hybrid – rely on batteries. Currently the lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery is the most widely used technology for batteries. There are a number of different varieties of Li-ion batteries.

For cars, the nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) cathode is the most popular. The European Commission’s Joint Research Centre forecasts that NMC cathodes will grow more than other forms. By 2025, they expect NMC demand to rise from 40k tonnes in 2015 to 192k tonnes (a rise from 29% share to 48% share of the overall cathode active materials market for batteries).

Notes: Lithium Cobalt Oxide (LCO), Lithium Nickel Manganese Cobalt Oxide (NMC), Lithium Nickel Cobalt Aluminium Oxide (NCA), Lithium Manganese Oxide (LMO) and Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP). With the exception of LCO, all these materials are currently used in automotive Li-ion battery cells.

Up until recently, the NMC cathode would use equal parts of nickel, manganese and cobalt, but the market is changing to a 8:1:1 ratio of the three metals (in favour of nickel). The reason for the transition is largely due to the relative scarcity of cobalt and potential supply disruptions to the metal. 60% of the world’s cobalt is mined out of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The country accounts for close to 50% of world known reserves of the metal. The DRC was embroiled in a civil war between 1998 and 2003, with an estimated death toll of 3.9 million (Source: International Rescue Committee). The current President’s mandate ran out in 2016 and his ability to cling onto power is fading. The risk of a serious political disruption is rising. The security of mineral resources from the DRC is weak and the association with human rights violations is becoming unpalatable for those sourcing the metal.

The structural shift toward greater electrical car usage combined with higher weighting of nickel in the Li-ion battery NMC cathodes looks likely to provide a boost for nickel demand in the coming decade.

For more information contact:

Catarina Donat Marques
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 20 7448 4386
E catarina.donatmarques@etfsecurities.com

Liknande ämnen:ETF Securities Lithium Nickel

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SPFT ETF är en global satsning på teknikföretag

Publicerad

13 timmar sedan

den

18 april, 2025

Redaktionen

SPDR MSCI World Technology UCITS ETF (SPFT ETF) med ISIN IE00BYTRRD19, strävar efter att spåra MSCI World Information Technology-index. MSCI World Information Technology-index spårar informationsteknologisektorn på de utvecklade marknaderna över hela världen (GICS-sektorklassificering).

ETFENs TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,30 % p.a. SPDR MSCI World Technology UCITS ETF är den billigaste ETF som följer MSCI World Information Technology index. ETF:n replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom fullständig replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i ETFEn ackumuleras och återinvesteras i ETFEn.

SPDR MSCI World Technology UCITS ETF är en stor ETF med tillgångar på 709 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 29 april 2016 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Fondens mål

Fondens investeringsmål är att följa resultatet för företag inom tekniksektorn, över utvecklade marknader globalt.

Indexbeskrivning

MSCI World Information Technology 35/20 Capped Index mäter utvecklingen för globala aktier som klassificeras som fallande inom tekniksektorn, enligt Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS).

Handla SPFT ETF

SPDR MSCI World Technology UCITS ETF (SPFT ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och London Stock Exchange.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRO, Nordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

Börs	Valuta	Kortnamn
gettex	EUR	SS47
Bolsa Mexicana de Valores	MXN	WTECN
Borsa Italiana	EUR	WTEC
Euronext Amsterdam	EUR	WTCH
London Stock Exchange	USD	WTEC
London Stock Exchange	GBP	TECW
SIX Swiss Exchange	USD	WTEC
XETRA	EUR	SPFT

Största innehav

Värdepapper	Vikt %
Apple Inc.	18,34%
Microsoft Corporation	18,34%
NVIDIA Corporation	18,09%
Broadcom Inc.	4,29%
ASML Holding NV	2,39%
Advanced Micro Devices Inc.	1,50%
Adobe Inc.	1,44%
Salesforce Inc.	1,44%
Oracle Corporation	1,33%
QUALCOMM Incorporated	1,28%

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Dogecoin in a portfolio: A small 1% allocation has a loud bark!

Publicerad

14 timmar sedan

den

18 april, 2025

Redaktionen

Dogecoin has outperformed other major cryptoassets over the past decade, while also exhibiting a low correlation to crypto and traditional assets. This creates a compelling argument for a portfolio allocation. We tested a Bitcoin-enhanced growth portfolio, which is a traditional 60/40 infused with 3% Bitcoin, and we introduced a modest 1% DOGE allocation. Since most prospective investors likely already hold Bitcoin, this offers a lens into how the two assets can complement each other.

Despite the small portfolio allocation, every approach delivered stronger returns. The benchmark returned 7.25% annually, while DOGE-enhanced portfolios reached as high as 8.95%. Sharpe ratios improved in almost all tests, indicating better risk-adjusted returns. Volatility did slightly tick up, but drawdowns remained largely contained. Even with no rebalancing, the max drawdown only deepened by a few percentage points, underscoring that even a 1% DOGE allocation adds meaningful punch without destabilizing the broader portfolio.

Rebalancing remains essential to capturing upside effectively. Without it, returns can plateau while risk quietly compounds. Monthly or weekly rebalancing offered the best balance, maximizing returns while keeping volatility and drawdowns in check, especially during periods of broader market stress, as we’ve recently seen. Given Dogecoin’s momentum-driven nature, a more strategic approach linked to broader crypto market cycles may offer even greater optimization beyond routine rebalancing.

With the right structure, a 1% allocation to Dogecoin isn’t reckless—it’s rewarding.

Bear Case

Despite strong fundamentals and a rich cultural legacy, Dogecoin’s recent rally, fueled by post-election memecoin mania, may have front-run its true cycle potential. As attention shifts to newer narratives, DOGE risks being seen as ’yesterday’s play,’ potentially underperforming even in a rising market. Still, that wouldn’t signal a flaw in its model, just a pause in a fast-rotating cycle.

Assuming a continued 10% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) from its 2021 peak of $0.73, DOGE would be projected to land around $0.38 by 2025—still more than 2x from today’s levels but modest relative to past cycles. More notably, this would mark the first time Dogecoin fails to reach a new all-time high in a full market cycle.

Neutral Case

Dogecoin may not dominate headlines like it did at its peak, but it still holds cultural relevance and widespread recognition. In a scenario where the total crypto market cap peaks at $5 trillion this cycle and DOGE maintains a solid, albeit slightly reduced, market share of 3% instead of its previous 4%, this would result in a market capitalization of approximately $150 billion for DOGE.

At that valuation, DOGE would trade near $1 per coin, a ~5.5x gain from current levels around $0.185. This neutral case assumes Dogecoin retains its stature as the leading memecoin, despite increased competition, with stable adoption and renewed retail interest, but without the same euphoria of the last cycle.

Bull Case

If we take DOGE’s bottom price of $0.007 just before the last bull run began and fast-forward two years to the bottom of the current cycle at $0.0585, that move reflects a CAGR of 189%. If DOGE were to mirror this explosive growth, DOGE would reach approximately $1.42.

In this scenario, Dogecoin benefits from renewed memecoin mania, increasing real-world adoption, and stronger interest fueled by regulatory clarity and potential integration with major platforms like Elon Musk’s X. A full return of retail enthusiasm and broad cultural momentum could reestablish DOGE as the breakout asset of the cycle, potentially even doubling its all-time high.

Research Newsletter

Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com

Disclaimer

The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.

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VBTC ETN spårar priset på kryptovalutan Bitcoin

Publicerad

15 timmar sedan

den

18 april, 2025

Redaktionen

VanEck Bitcoin ETN (VBTC ETN) med ISIN DE000A28M8D0, spårar värdet på kryptovalutan Bitcoin. Den börshandlade produktens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 1,00 % p.a. Denna ETN replikerar resultatet av det underliggande indexet med en skuldförbindelse med säkerheter som backas upp av fysiska innehav av kryptovalutan.

VanEck Bitcoin ETN är en stor ETN med 568 miljoner euro tillgångar under förvaltning. Denna ETN lanserades den 19 november 2020 och har sin hemvist i Liechtenstein.

Produktbeskrivning

Kombinera spänningen med bitcoin med enkelheten och säkerheten hos traditionell finans. Bitcoin är den äldsta kryptovalutan, med det största börsvärdet. Det ses ofta som digitalt guld, ett digitalt värdelager i en tid av osäkerhet. VanEck Bitcoin ETN är en fullständigt säkerställd börshandlad sedel som investerar i bitcoin.

100 % uppbackad av bitcoin (BTC)
Förvaras hos en reglerad kryptodepå, med kryptoförsäkring (upp till ett begränsat belopp)
Kan handlas som en ETF på reglerade börser (om än inom ett annat segment)

Huvudriskfaktorer

Volatilitetsrisk: Handelspriserna för många digitala tillgångar har upplevt extrem volatilitet under de senaste perioderna och kan mycket väl fortsätta att göra det. Digitala tillgångar har bara introducerats under det senaste decenniet och klarhet i regelverket är fortfarande svårfångad i många jurisdiktioner.

Valutarisk, teknikrisk, juridiska och regulatoriska risker. Du kan förlora pengar genom att investera i fonderna. Värdet på investeringarna kan gå upp eller ner och investeraren kanske inte får tillbaka det investerade beloppet.

Underliggande index

MarketVector Bitcoin VWAP Close Index (MVBTCV Index).

Handla VBTC ETN

VanEck Bitcoin ETN (VBTC ETN) är en europeisk börshandlad kryptovaluta. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och Euronext Amsterdam.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETP genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel Nordnet, SAVR, DEGIRO och Avanza.