ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis – Nickel and aluminium ETPs saw inflows as trade-war punishment on industrial metals reprieve
Highlight
Long nickel and aluminium ETPs saw the highest inflows since February 2018 as prices begin to recover.
Gold ETPs receive first inflows in six weeks
Turkish woes pressure the Euro
Long nickel and aluminium ETPs saw the highest inflows since February 2018 as prices begin to recover
Nickel prices rallied 2.5% while aluminium rallied 4.2% last week as the market appears to be shifting focus to the supply disruptions that US protectionism is likely to cause. Long nickel ETPs received US$31.2mn while long aluminium ETPs received US$6.5mn. As we pointed out in Trade wars: price optimism ahead for metals?, the market appears to be wavering between protectionism being positive and protectionism being negative for prices. In the first bout of tariff announcements in February 2018, prices trended down. Then between April and June prices rallied as the supply disruptions came into focus.
As the Trump administration rattled its protectionist sabres more intensely, the market had been concerned about the damage to global growth, with prices declining for most of June and July. The reopening of several mines in the Philippines in June (following their closure in February 2017 for environmental violations) added further headwinds to the metals’ performance. But as of last week the market shifted focus back to supply disruptions despite the intensity of Trump’s threats of trade wars revving up a gear. Copper only managed to gain 0.1% as the strike at Escondida (the world’s largest copper mine) was averted at the last minute as the Chilean government began to act as a mediator between the Union and BHP Billiton. However, if an agreement on the wage contract is not agreed by the 14th August 2018, a strike could be back on the cards.
Long gold ETPs received the first inflow in six weeks, amounting to US$26mn
Although gold prices remained lacklustre, some investors are now coming to believe that the price decline has been overdone. We certainly hold that view. Although the US Dollar is strengthening, US Treasury yields have not risen as much as we had expected back in June and US inflation is running at a 6-year high. Overly-subdued investor sentiment for the metal (both in futures and ETP markets) accounts for the poor price performance. If that is now turning a corner, we could see gold prices play catch-up. Our estimated base case is for gold to reach US$1307 by June 2019, up 8% from today’s levels (see Gold outlook). Economic disarray in Turkey, with a sharp Lira depreciation (which had knock-on contagion to the Euro last week), could send investors looking for haven assets. Gold has traditionally played the role of a safe haven asset in many investors portfolios.
Second week of short USD, long EUR ETP inflows likely to lead to disappointment
Last week there were US$5.9mn inflows into Short USD, long EUR ETPs. The prior week there were US$5.6mn of inflows. In the past week the Euro depreciated close to 2% against the US Dollar as investors feared contagion into the European banking system from exposure to Turkish loans.
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Amundi MSCI World Minimum Volatility Screened Factor UCITSETFUCITSETFAcc (WMMV ETF) med ISIN IE0001DKJVC2, försöker spåra MSCI World Minimum Volatility Select ESG Low Carbon Target-index. MSCI World Minimum Volatility ESG Reduced Carbon Target-index spårar aktier från utvecklade länder över hela världen som är valda enligt låg volatilitet och ESG-kriterier (miljö, social och företagsstyrning). Indexet har som mål att minska utsläppen av växthusgaser och ett förbättrat ESG-poäng jämfört med jämförelseindex. Jämförelseindex är MSCI World-index.
Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,25 % p.a. Amundi MSCI World Minimum Volatility Screened Factor UCITSETFUCITSETFAcc är den enda ETF som följer MSCI World Minimum Volatility Select ESG Low Carbon Target-index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom fullständig replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i ETF:n ackumuleras och återinvesteras.
Denna ETF lanserades den 30 oktober 2024 och har sin hemvist i Irland.
Investeringsmål
Amundi MSCI World Minimum Volatility Screened Factor UCITSETFAcc försöker replikera, så nära som möjligt, oavsett om trenden är stigande eller fallande, resultatet för MSCI World Minimum Volatility Select ESG Low Carbon Target Index (”Indexet”). Delfondens mål är att uppnå en tracking error-nivå för delfonden och dess index som normalt inte kommer att överstiga 1 %.
Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRO, Nordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.
· UBS Asset Management lanserar EUR och USD Treasury Yield Plus UCITS ETFer
· ETFerna syftar till att öka avkastningen samtidigt som riskegenskaperna hos deras referensindex bibehålls
· En egenutvecklad regelbaserad modell används för att bredda investeringsuniversumet för att förbättra tillgången till en större uppsättning möjligheter
UBS Asset Management (UBS AM) tillkännager idag lanseringen av två nya ETF:er som syftar till att leverera förbättrad avkastning, samtidigt som riskprofilen för deras underliggande statsobligationsindex bevaras. UBS EUR Treasury Yield Plus UCITSETF och UBS USD Treasury Yield Plus UCITSETF syftar till att överträffa sina respektive Bloomberg Treasury-index genom att rikta in sig på högre optionsjusterad spread (OAS), samtidigt som de bibehåller en strikt anpassning till duration, kreditkvalitet och landsexponering1.
Portföljkonstruktion
· Universumsdefinition: Varje ETF börjar med sitt respektive Bloomberg Treasury Index (EUR eller USD) och utökar uppsättningen möjligheter till att inkludera högkvalitativa statsobligationer, överstatliga obligationer och agentobligationer (SSA), vilka kan erbjuda en högre avkastning än statsobligationer. · Optimering: SSA-obligationerna väljs ut med hjälp av en egenutvecklad regelbaserad modell som maximerar OAS samtidigt som strikta begränsningar för rating, land, sektor, duration och kurvrisk följs.
· Dynamisk allokering: Portföljförvaltaren kan använda sitt eget omdöme för att ytterligare förbättra portföljens avkastning och/eller riskprofil.
André Mueller, chef för kundtäckning, UBS AM, sa: ”De snabbt ökande tillgångarna i förbättrade ränte-ETF:er signalerar en växande investerarefterfrågan på fonder som går utöver traditionella passiva riktmärken. UBS AM har långvarig expertis inom regelbaserade strategier, så jag är glad att vi för första gången kan erbjuda denna möjlighet till ett bredare spektrum av kunder genom det bekväma, transparenta och effektiva ETF-omslaget.”
Fonden är registrerad för försäljning i Österrike, Danmark, Finland, Frankrike, Tyskland, Irland, Italien, Liechtenstein, Luxemburg, Nederländerna, Norge, Spanien, Sverige, Schweiz och Storbritannien.