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New U.S. President, New Bitcoin All-Time High

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A historic moment: the world’s first presidential race to have a unanimous recognition of the crypto industry. After years of regulatory headwinds and restrictions that isolated crypto service providers from traditional finance, the sector may finally see a path to more legitimacy under new leadership. This election could usher in an era of thoughtful regulation that allows cryptoassets to integrate with and enhance the existing financial system. The shift in attitudes represents a dramatic turnaround from previous administrations' skepticism and adversarial approach. Where crypto firms once faced severe limitations on their operations, there is now hope for a regulatory framework that fosters innovation while addressing valid consumer protection concerns. This potential sea change could allow crypto to emerge from the shadows and realize its transformative potential in the global economy.

A historic moment: the world’s first presidential race to have a unanimous recognition of the crypto industry. After years of regulatory headwinds and restrictions that isolated crypto service providers from traditional finance, the sector may finally see a path to more legitimacy under new leadership. This election could usher in an era of thoughtful regulation that allows cryptoassets to integrate with and enhance the existing financial system. The shift in attitudes represents a dramatic turnaround from previous administrations’ skepticism and adversarial approach. Where crypto firms once faced severe limitations on their operations, there is now hope for a regulatory framework that fosters innovation while addressing valid consumer protection concerns. This potential sea change could allow crypto to emerge from the shadows and realize its transformative potential in the global economy.

As the 2024 U.S. presidential election concludes, Republican candidate Donald Trump has been declared the winner in a decisive victory. Here’s how the race and its ripple effects on the crypto market are shaping up:

• The election has been called in Donald Trump’s favor, with a projected final electoral tally of 312 – 226, marking a sweeping victory for the Republican candidate.

• With a commanding 5M vote lead, Donald Trump is projected to win the popular vote by a margin of 1.5%—marking the first time a Republican has done so since George W. Bush’s victory in 2004.

• Key swing states—including Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina—have officially been called in Trump’s favor, solidifying the Republican’s clear path to victory. Three key states remain uncalled, including Arizona, Michigan, and Nevada, but the red wave shows no signs of slowing as they are set for a clean sweep.

• Crypto markets are responding swiftly to Trump’s anticipated victory and his well-documented pro-crypto stance:

o Bitcoin (BTC) surged to a new all-time high, reaching just shy of $76K in the early European hours.

o Dogecoin (DOGE) also rallied by 26%, driven by Elon Musk’s vocal support for both the asset and the Republican candidate.

o The SEC has actively pursued a regulation-by-enforcement approach in recent years, targeting specific projects with direct actions, including issuing Wells Notices to Uniswap (UNI) and Immutable (IMX). Both assets saw substantial gains on election night, with UNI rising 28% and IMX up 10%. This broad market reaction reflects optimism about the anticipated regulatory easing under the new administration, a trend we’ll explore in greater detail later in the report.

Looking back at election cycles

Bitcoin has demonstrated its nature as a non-partisan macroeconomic asset, with its performance during previous election cycles reinforcing this perspective. Excluding the current cycle, Bitcoin has only experienced three election cycles since its inception. Its political neutrality is evident in its robust performance across both Republican and Democratic administrations during these periods

Figure 1: Bitcoin Monthly Performance in U.S. Presidential Election Years

Source: 21Shares, Yahoo Finance

However, in this electron cycle, crypto has taken center stage, driven by its increasing mainstream acceptance and potential to revolutionize the U.S. economy. The focus has shifted to crypto’s capacity to innovate the financial system, address its inefficiencies, and potentially bolster the dollar’s global position through embracing US dollar-denominated stablecoins. Stablecoins are emerging as a crucial instrument for generating net new demand for U.S. Treasury securities, offering a potential remedy to the government’s mounting debt challenge that has recently reached $35T.

This evolving narrative can be observed with Bitcoin’s performance moving in tandem with Trump’s increasing likelihood of winning the presidency. Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi showed Trump with a lead of over 20% ahead of Vice President Harris, as illustrated in Figure 2. This is where we saw Bitcoin’s price showing a strong correlation with Trump’s election odds on both Polymarket and Kalshi, with correlations of 0.83 and 0.89, respectively.

Figure 2: Bitcoin Price Performance vs. Presidential Candidate Odds

Source: 21Shares, Yahoo Finance

What does it mean for crypto under the Trump Administration?

With Trump now declared the winner, the crypto industry stands to benefit from a favorable outlook. His administration’s pro-crypto stance, along with a maturing regulatory environment for established assets like Bitcoin, points to a bright future for the sector. Under this new leadership, the deficit and inflation may continue to rise, strengthening the structural case for store-of-value assets like gold and Bitcoin and prompting an ongoing shift away from the dollar.

In this view, Trump outlined a clear strategy for treating the crypto industry. However, it’s crucial to approach such campaign promises with a degree of skepticism. Political candidates often present ambitious visions that may not fully materialize once in office, either due to changing circumstances or the complexities of governance. Their enacted policies frequently diverge from, or even contradict their initial campaign rhetoric. That said, here’s a breakdown of what he said so far:

Stablecoins and DeFi flourish:

• Trump’s lending platform, World Liberty Financial, has announced plans to launch its own stablecoin, a move that could bolster the credibility of this new financial instrument and drive further adoption.

• Consequently, DeFi stands to gain greater legitimacy, as Trump’s lending application is built on Aave—the largest lending protocol in crypto—effectively serving as a stamp of approval for the $90B sector.

• Yield-bearing stablecoins are likely to continue unlocking new utilities that traditional money market funds (MMFs) and other cash-like instruments can’t provide.

o Rather than investing in an MMF, investors can opt for stablecoins to earn yield while staying flexible and actively trading and engaging within decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystems. Unlike MMFs, which require a full trading cycle for settlement, stablecoins offer instant liquidity, enabling users to seamlessly trade or deploy their assets as needed.

More institutional interest and new demand for Bitcoin:

• Under Trump’s presidency, increased government deficits and spending are likely to drive inflationary pressures higher, reinforcing Bitcoin’s store-of-value narrative. This environment would encourage investors to shift toward appreciating assets like equities and Bitcoin over the dollar.

o Trump’s policies would likely emphasize tax reductions and incentives for businesses, aiming to drive short-term market growth.

o His administration may also implement protectionist tariffs, aiming to support domestic industries but potentially impacting international trade relations. Tariffs however could result in higher prices for the end consumers as they are effectively a tax on imported goods that end up trickling down to the consumer.
o Tax cuts and tariffs could expand the deficit, heightening inflation risks and potentially leading to interest rate hikes to manage inflationary pressures.

• Trump’s administration would refrain from selling any Bitcoin currently held by the U.S. government, underscoring their confidence in its powerful store-of-value properties.

• Trump plans to bolster the domestic mining industry, aiming to position the U.S. as the global hub for Bitcoin. While this focus could raise concerns about centralization in the long term, it solidifies the industry’s foundation in the near term.

A favorable tax environment for crypto:

• There would be no capital gains taxes or elevated rates applied to Bitcoin and mining-related activities, creating a highly favorable tax environment for the crypto sector.

A clearer regulatory landscape:

• A push for deregulation would foster a favorable environment for crypto growth, potentially creating thousands of jobs domestically. This approach could also entice companies that previously left the U.S. to reconsider relocating back, strengthening the nation’s position in the global crypto market.

• Replace Gary Gensler at the SEC with a more pro-crypto advocate, bringing a supportive voice to the agency’s approach to regulating cryptoassets.

• Rescind impractical DeFi regulations that require intermediaries, such as decentralized exchanges (DEXs) and wallet providers, to collect user information—promoting a more privacy-focused and innovation-friendly environment.

• Set the stage for approving new ETFs in the U.S., opening up more avenues for retail and institutional investment via regulated financial products.

The global impact of Trump’s presidency:

• Trump’s push for crypto adoption could create a ripple effect, encouraging other countries to accelerate their own exploration of digital assets and integrate them into local financial markets.

• This influence could lead more nations to adopt favorable regulatory frameworks, potentially unleashing a wave of liquidity into the crypto market. With greater governmental endorsement, both institutional and retail investors would gain confidence, driving further growth in the sector.

What happens next?

Yes, the presidential election significantly influences the U.S. regulatory landscape, though it is not as hands-on or impactful as elections within Congress. The past four years have been turbulent for crypto companies, which have faced a regulation-by-enforcement approach amid legal uncertainty, as well as government agencies discouraging banks from providing services to crypto companies via what’s known as Operation ChokePoint 2.0. The presence of more crypto-friendly voices across regulatory bodies from both sides of the political aisle would expedite the establishment of clearer guidelines for this asset class.

House of Representatives (68.61% crypto-friendly):

• Tom Emmer Jr. (R) – 341 statements

• Warren Davidson (R) – 284 statements

• Mike Flood (R) – 66 statements

• French Hill (R) – 80 statements

• Josh Gottheimer (D) – 39 statements

• Ritchie Torres (D) – 30 statements

• Don Beyer Jr. (D) – 27 statements

• Jake Auchincloss (D) – 16 statements

Senate (60% crypto-friendly):

• Ted Cruz (R) – 57 statements

• Bernie Morino (R) – 23 statements

• Kirsten Gillibrand (D) – 18 statements

For years, the distinction has been blurry between the SEC’s jurisdiction over crypto and that of the Commodities and Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Pending a Senate vote, the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (FIT21) would provide the CFTC with new jurisdiction over digital commodities and clarify the SEC’s jurisdiction over digital assets offered as part of an investment contract. Additionally, the bill would establish a process to permit the secondary market trading of digital commodities if they were initially offered as part of an investment contract. With USD-pegged stablecoins now the 16th largest holder of U.S. debt, regulations like the Lummis-Gillibrand Act could also be pushed to the finish line, as it expands stablecoin adoption, reinforcing dollar demand.

We may also expect a price recovery within the longer tail of cryptoassets, especially those flagged with a Wells notice from the SEC.

• Immutable, the leading gaming platform, was the latest to receive a Wells notice for trading activities related to the sale of its native token IMX back in 2021. IMX rallied by 10% during election night as Trump looked increasingly favored to win.

• Uniswap Labs, the creator of the largest decentralized exchange (DEX) received a Wells notice in April, for allegedly running as an unregistered securities broker and unregistered exchange. UNI rallied by 28% during the closing periods of the election.

Staking providers have also been flagged in a Wells notice sent to Consensys in June, for allegedly offering and selling unregistered securities, namely through its MetaMask Staking Service.

To recap, there has been a growing trend among DeFi protocols to implement revenue-sharing mechanisms for their token holders over the past several months. This movement is gaining momentum, as evidenced by Uniswap’s evolution into Unichain and Aave’s proposed activation of its fee switch. These developments mark the initial stages of a broader shift toward aligning protocol success with token holder benefits. To revisit our previous discussion, please review our summary for a comprehensive overview of our outlook.

With more crypto-friendly voices in Congress, supported by a crypto-friendly presidency, we believe the industry is set to finally meet the regulatory clarity that has been brewing for the past few years.

To bring it back all in, we believe that Trump’s presidency will bode well for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. This will be supported by a more favorable regulatory environment, which should drive innovation and more investors into the space. His presidency will also exhibit a clearer understanding of crypto’s value proposition and its impact on the US economy. This would come in the form of broader acceptance of stablecoins and allow companies beyond banks to issue this new form of private money that would create new net demand for US debt while helping to strengthen the dollar’s position in the world. Finally, we expect DeFi, with tokenization at the forefront, to become more widely integrated to help address some of the current financial system’s shortcomings. This would address issues like slow settlement, exuberant fees, lack of transparency, democratizing access to financial markets, and accelerating financial inclusion.

What’s happening this week?

Research Newsletter

Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com

Disclaimer

The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.

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21Shares noterar ny ETN på Xetra som ger exponering mot Solana inklusive staking

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En ny krypto-ETN som ger exponering mot Solana inklusive staking, utgiven av 21Shares har sedan i torsdags kunnat handlas på Xetra och Börse Frankfurt sedan i torsdags.

En ny krypto-ETN som ger exponering mot Solana inklusive staking, utgiven av 21Shares har sedan i torsdags kunnat handlas på Xetra och Börse Frankfurt sedan i torsdags.

21Shares Solana Core Staking ETP erbjuder investerare enkel och kostnadseffektiv tillgång till prestanda för kryptovalutan Solana i kombination med en insatspremie, som återinvesteras i ETP för att förbättra prestandan.

Genom att satsa (så kallad staking) kan kryptoinnehavare ta emot belöningar. Detta görs genom att låsa in sina mynt i plånböcker som används för att validera nätverkstransaktioner på blockkedjan. Investerare kan använda den här metoden inte bara för att delta i prestanda för kryptovalutan, utan också för att dra nytta av respektive insatsavkastning. Produkten backas upp fysiskt av kryptovalutan.

Denna börshandlade produkt handlas även som CSOL på SIX Swiss Exchange, där den noterades i början av februari 2025.

Handla 2SCS ETP

21Shares Solana Core Staking ETP (2SCS) är en europeisk börshandlad produkt. Denna ETP handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och SIX Swiss Exchange.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETP genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, SAVR och Avanza.

NamnKort-
namn
ISINAvgiftKrypto-
valuta
21Shares Solana Core Staking ETP2SCSCH13850843840,35 %Solana

Produktutbudet inom Deutsche Börses ETF & ETP-segment omfattar för närvarande totalt 2 359 ETFer, 197 ETCer och 250 ETNer. Med detta urval och en genomsnittlig månatlig handelsvolym på mer än €19 miljarder är Xetra den ledande handelsplatsen för ETFer och ETPer i Europa.

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Börshandlade fonder som investerar i e-handelsbolag

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Långt före Corona-krisen åtnjöt e-handelsbolag en ökande popularitet över hela världen. Många människor gör redan det mesta av sina inköp elektroniskt. En växande andel företag erbjuder produkter och tjänster online, ibland till och med exklusivt. ETFer på e-handel försöker dra nytta av denna utveckling. Fokus för de tillgängliga ETFerna varierar och är inriktat på till exempel tillväxtmarknader eller e-handelslogistik.

Långt före Corona-krisen åtnjöt e-handelsbolag en ökande popularitet över hela världen. Många människor gör redan det mesta av sina inköp elektroniskt. En växande andel företag erbjuder produkter och tjänster online, ibland till och med exklusivt. ETFer på e-handel försöker dra nytta av denna utveckling. Fokus för de tillgängliga ETFerna varierar och är inriktat på till exempel tillväxtmarknader eller e-handelslogistik.

I den här investeringsguiden hittar du alla ETFer som gör att du kan investera i e-handel. För närvarande finns det 4 index med 4 ETFer tillgängliga för investeringar. Den årliga förvaltningskostnaden varierar mellan 0,49 och 0,86 procent.

En jämförelse av ETFer som investerar i e-handelsbolag

När man väljer en e-handels-ETF bör man överväga flera andra faktorer utöver metodiken för det underliggande indexet och prestanda för en ETF. För bättre jämförelse hittar du en lista över alla e-handels-ETFe’er med detaljer om namn, kortnamn, kostnad, utdelningsolicy, hemvist och replikeringsmetod. För ytterligare information om respektive ETF, klicka på kortnamnet i tabellen nedan.

Namn
ISIN
KortnamnAvgift %Utdelnings-
policy
HemvistReplikerings-
metod
L&G Ecommerce Logistics UCITS ETF
IE00BF0M6N54
ETLH0.49%AckumulerandeIrlandFysisk replikering
HANetf EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce UCITS ETF
IE00BFYN8Y92
EMQQ0.86%AckumulerandeIrlandFysisk replikering
HANetf INQQ India Internet & Ecommerce ESG-S UCITS ETF
IE000WYTQSF9
IMQQ0.86%AckumulerandeIrlandFysisk replikering
Global X E-commerce UCITS ETF USD Accumulating
IE00BMH5XY61
E61Z0.50%AckumulerandeIrlandFysisk replikering

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BS27 ETF köper amerikanska företagsobligationer med förfall 2027

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Invesco BulletShares 2027 USD Corporate Bond UCITS ETF Dist (BS27 ETF) med ISIN IE000BMDG046, försöker spåra Bloomberg 2027 Maturity USD Corporate Bond Screened index. Bloomberg 2027 Maturity USD Corporate Bond Screened-index spårar företagsobligationer denominerade i amerikanska dollar. Indexet speglar inte ett konstant löptidsintervall (som är fallet med de flesta andra obligationsindex). Istället ingår endast obligationer som förfaller under det angivna året (här: 2027) i indexet. Indexet består av ESG (environmental, social and governance) screenade företagsobligationer. Betyg: Investment Grade. Löptid: december 2027 (Denna ETF kommer att stängas efteråt).

Invesco BulletShares 2027 USD Corporate Bond UCITS ETF Dist (BS27 ETF) med ISIN IE000BMDG046, försöker spåra Bloomberg 2027 Maturity USD Corporate Bond Screened index. Bloomberg 2027 Maturity USD Corporate Bond Screened-index spårar företagsobligationer denominerade i amerikanska dollar. Indexet speglar inte ett konstant löptidsintervall (som är fallet med de flesta andra obligationsindex). Istället ingår endast obligationer som förfaller under det angivna året (här: 2027) i indexet. Indexet består av ESG (environmental, social and governance) screenade företagsobligationer. Betyg: Investment Grade. Löptid: december 2027 (Denna ETF kommer att stängas efteråt).

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,10 % p.a. Invesco BulletShares 2027 USD Corporate Bond UCITS ETF Dist är den billigaste ETF som följer Bloomberg 2027 Maturity USD Corporate Bond Screened index. ETFen replikerar resultatet för det underliggande indexet genom samplingsteknik (köper ett urval av de mest relevanta indexbeståndsdelarna). Ränteintäkterna (kuponger) i ETFen delas ut till investerarna (kvartalsvis).

Invesco BulletShares 2027 USD Corporate Bond UCITS ETF Dist är en mycket liten ETF med 1 miljon euro tillgångar under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 21 maj 2024 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Produktbeskrivning

Invesco BulletShares 2027 USD Corporate Bond UCITS ETF Dist syftar till att tillhandahålla den totala avkastningen för Bloomberg 2027 Maturity USD Corporate Bond Screened Index (”Referensindexet”), minus avgifternas inverkan. Fonden har en fast löptid och kommer att upphöra på Förfallodagen. Fonden delar ut intäkter på kvartalsbasis.

Referensindexet är utformat för att återspegla utvecklingen för USD-denominerade, investeringsklassade, fast ränta, skattepliktiga skuldförbindelser utgivna av företagsemittenter. Den är marknadsvärdevägd med ett tak på 4,5 % för enskilda företagsemittenter. För att vara kvalificerade för inkludering måste företagsvärdepapper ha minst 300 miljoner USD i nominellt utestående belopp och en effektiv löptid på eller mellan 1 januari 2027 och 31 december 2027.

Värdepapper är uteslutna om emittenter: 1) är inblandade i kontroversiella vapen, handeldvapen, militära kontrakt, oljesand, termiskt kol eller tobak; 2) inte har en kontroversnivå enligt definitionen av Sustainalytics eller har en Sustainalytics-kontroversnivå högre än 4; 3) anses inte följa principerna i FN:s Global Compact; eller 4) kommer från tillväxtmarknader.

Portföljförvaltarna strävar efter att uppnå fondens mål genom att tillämpa en urvalsstrategi, som inkluderar användning av kvantitativ analys, för att välja en andel av värdepapperen från referensindexet som representerar hela indexets egenskaper, med hjälp av faktorer som index- vägd genomsnittlig löptid, branschsektorer och kreditkvalitet. När en företagsobligation som innehas av fonden når förfall, kommer kontanterna som fonden tar emot att användas för att investera i kortfristiga USD-denominerade skulder utgivna av det amerikanska finansdepartementet.

ETFen förvaltas passivt.

En investering i denna fond är ett förvärv av andelar i en passivt förvaltad indexföljande fond snarare än i de underliggande tillgångarna som ägs av fonden.

Förfallodag: den andra onsdagen i december 2027 eller annan dag som bestäms av styrelseledamöterna och meddelas aktieägarna.

Handla BS27 ETF

Invesco BulletShares 2027 USD Corporate Bond UCITS ETF Dist (BS27 ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och London Stock Exchange.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, SAVR och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
Borsa ItalianaEURBS27
London Stock ExchangeGBXBX27
London Stock ExchangeUSDBS27
SIX Swiss ExchangeCHFBS27
XETRAEURBS27

Största innehav

NamnCUSIPISINKupongräntaVikt %
Amazon.com Inc 3.15% 22/08/27023135BC9US023135BC963,1501,36%
Verizon Communications Inc 4.125% 16/03/2792343VDY7US92343VDY744,1250,98%
Citigroup Inc 4.45% 29/09/27172967KA8US172967KA874,4500,97%
Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The 3.85% 26/01/2738141GWB6US38141GWB663,8500,97%
Microsoft Corp 3.3% 06/02/27594918BY9US594918BY933,3000,96%
Toronto-Dominion Bank/The 4.108% 08/06/2789115A2C5US89115A2C544,1080,96%
T-Mobile USA Inc 3.75% 15/04/2787264ABD6US87264ABD633,7500,96%
Warnermedia Holdings Inc 3.755% 15/03/2755903VBA0US55903VBA083,7550,95%
Toyota Motor Credit Corp 3.05% 22/03/2789236TJZ9US89236TJZ933,0500,95%
Apple Inc 2.9% 12/09/27037833DB3US037833DB332,9000,94%

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