Markets were relatively quiet during the holidays as Bitcoin’s weekly volatility hovers near all-time lows. As of Monday’s close, Bitcoin and Ethereum traded up 2.88% and 5.12%, respectively. In addition, the biggest movers of last week were Solana (-15.65% in TVL) among the alternative Layer 1s, Optimism (6.98%) among the major Layer 2s, and Lido (9.17%) among the most prominent DeFi players.

Figure 1: Weekly TVL and Price Performance of Major Crypto Categories

Source: CoinGecko, data as of December 26 (close price).

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin’s weekly volatility is at near all-time lows.

• Visa is proposing to launch automatic recurring payments on top of StarkNet.

• CME Group and CF Benchmark launch DeFi reference rates for Aave, Synthetix, and Curve.

• Solana’s popular NFT projects, DeGods and Y00ts, will leave the blockchain and migrate to Ethereum and Polygon, respectively.

Spot and Derivatives Markets

Figure 2: BTC Funding Rates

Source: lookintobitcoin

If we look at the derivatives market, BTC funding rates have been consistently positive since December 16, indicating that many investors are positioned to the upside after the market downturn caused by the FTX debacle last month.

On-chain Indicators

Figure 3: Weekly BTC Volatility

Source: BitMEX, TradingView

The BitMEX Weekly Historical Bitcoin Volatility Index is at near all-time lows. There are only two other instances where we saw similar levels of volatility in the last five years, yielding opposite outcomes. The most recent precedent is July 2020, which marked the beginning of last cycle’s bull run. The other precedent is October 2018, before Bitcoin experienced a 50% drawdown from $6,000 to $3,000. In both cases, we saw a steep rise in volatility, a pattern we could observe in the coming weeks.

Next Week’s Calendar

Read our full report here

The cryptoassets market is performing better ahead of the Merge slated to take place on September 15, you can track its progress here and read more about its implications in our primer. Bitcoin is up by almost 12% over the past week, its TVL has also risen by 13%. Whereas Ethereum jumped by nearly 11%. As shown in the figure below, Solana and Avalanche have also jumped in returns by 18% and 14% respectively, however, their TVL have dipped by almost -2% and -6% respectively. Regarding scalability solutions and DeFi protocols, Optimism saw an 18% increase in performance and Lido, a 12% increase in TVL.

Figure 1: 7-Day Price and TVL Developments of Cryptoassets in Major Sectors

Source: 21Shares, Coingecko, DeFi Llama

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin mining difficulty increased by almost 10% since August 29
• ETH official switch to POS is less than 48 hours away
• Frax joins Aave and Curve in building an all-inclusive DeFi ecosystem
• Google Cloud to become an Axie Infinity Ronin sidechain validator
Spot and Derivatives Markets

Figure 2: ETH Spot to Futures Volume (30-D MA)

Source: TheBlock, CryptoCompare

The figure above indicates the looming speculation around the Merge, given the declining spot volume against the futures.

On-chain Indicators

Figure 3: Bitcoin Mining Difficulty

Source: Coinglass

Bitcoin mining difficulty increased by almost 10% since August 29, it’s the highest increase the network has seen since May 2022. Although this indicator isn’t exactly directly proportional to the returns on the cryptoasset, a rising Bitcoin mining difficulty shows a healthy network attracting more miners, making the Bitcoin network more secure with computing power.

From the Press

Last week we celebrated the inception of our new parent company, 21.co and our unicorn status which caught the attention of several media outlets and publications around the world.

• On the occasion, our co-founders have appeared on Swiss TV; you can watch here.
• From the US: Axios, 21Shares’ parent gets a $2 billion valuation
• From France: CryptoActu: 21Shares, l’émetteur de multiples ETP crypto, valorisé à 2 milliards de dollars
• From Italy: Advisor Online, 21.co è ufficialmente parent company di 21Shares e Amun
• From Germany: Fonds Professionell, 21Shares erhält neue Struktur
• From the UAE: Reuters, Crypto firm 21.co raises $25 million to value it at $2 billion

Next Week’s Calendar

Read full report here

Research Newsletter

Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com

Disclaimer

The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.