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Is Sui a Solana Killer?

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While the markets were busy turmoiling, one rising decentralized settlement layer made 89% in weekly gains since Monday, August 5. Sui is a smart-contract platform blockchain focused on processing transactions faster.

While the markets were busy turmoiling, one rising decentralized settlement layer made 89% in weekly gains since Monday, August 5. Sui is a smart-contract platform blockchain focused on processing transactions faster.

Sui’s mainnet went live in May 2023 and has since attracted millions of users by offering an intuitive experience akin to popular Web 2 applications like Facebook. It achieves this by allowing users to create wallets with familiar credentials such as Gmail accounts and Face ID, eliminating the need for seed phrases, and simplifying transactions through QR codes. Interestingly, the developers behind Sui used to work at Meta (previously Facebook) to build their crypto wallet Novi, which sunset in September 2022.

But what happened last week that made Sui rally to almost double in price?

• August 6: Sui’s mainnet was successfully upgraded to Mysticeti, after launching it on the testnet in May, making it officially faster than Solana in theory (65,000 TPS vs. Sui’s 297,000 TPS).

• August 7: Grayscale introduced its SUI Trust for eligible individual and institutional accredited investors.

Figure 1 – Daily Price Performance of SUI and SOL

Source: TradingView

As explained in our last newsletter, when the Bank of Japan hiked interest rates, markets experienced a simultaneous selling pressure that brought the crypto market cap down by 17% overnight. When compared with other assets, Sui was largely unaffected and came out as one of the biggest beneficiaries, as shown in Figure 1.

In the past, the question on everyone’s mind was: “Will Solana overtake Ethereum?” But now, a new challenge emerges: Could Sui overtake Solana? That’s the 68 billion dollar* question.

*Solana’s market cap: $68,832,842,930

The Answer Is in the Fundamentals: the Leading Indicator

Because past performance isn’t indicative of future price movements, it’s worth focusing on the development being worked on in the backend of each cryptoasset, in addition to some market indicators. By doing that, investors will be able to gauge the real value beyond any exaggerated hype or volatility.

Sui’s Catalysts:

• Mysticeti upgrade cuts down latency to 390 milliseconds and reduces hardware requirements for Sui validators.

• Architecture: As a refresher, Sui’s high performance is primarily due to its parallel transaction execution as opposed to the linear standard.

• Low fees: Sui’s gas-pricing mechanism delivers low, predictable transaction fees, even when network demand is high, incentivizing validators to optimize their transaction processing operations and preventing denial of service attacks.

Solana’s Catalysts:

• Solana ETF soon in Brazil: The Brazilian securities regulator approved the country’s first Solana exchange-traded fund (ETF) on August 7, however it still needs to be greenlit by the stock exchange B3.

• Network security is getting more proactive. On August 9, Solana developers, validators, and client teams addressed a critical security vulnerability by securing a supermajority of its network stake before publicly disclosing the issue.

• Thriving DeFi ecosystem: Solana’s decentralized applications (dApps) have made strides in terms of adoption and fee generation, surpassing even Ethereum’s pioneering ecosystem. Solana’s Decentralized Exchange (DEX) volume made it the network of choice for on-chain trading activity. For example, at the height of Solana’s activity on March 18, 2024, DEX volume reached over $7B.

In terms of countering network congestion and encouraging validators, Jito is a high-performance block builder for Solana that allows validators to increase their rewards while reducing network congestion. Tips paid through Jito can be used as a proxy for Solana’s financial opportunities. Thanks to Solana’s thriving ecosystem, as shown in the chart below, Jito validator tips reached an all-time high of 17,290 SOL (approximately $3.19M) on July 27. For context, at around the same time, 68K tokens were minted on Solana.

Figure 2 – Jito Validator Tips

Source: 21co on Dune Analytics

With just a hundred validators verifying transactions on Sui’s network, Solana would be at an advantage with 1,500 validators on its network, making it more decentralized. However, it’s important to note that Sui’s mainnet just turned 1 this May; it may be too soon to judge. Solana’s network has been live since March 2020.

Nevertheless, we broke down some on-chain metrics that measure the fundamentals of both high-performance settlement layers.

Does Sui Have What it Takes?

Total Value Locked (TVL) is a measure of the overall value of assets locked in a smart contract or DeFi platform, and can be thought of as the crypto-equivalent of assets under management. On this front, Sui has recently seen a massive jump. In dollar terms, Sui’s TVL has catapulted from $498.65M last Monday, to $902.2M yesterday!

Figure 3 – SUI Total Value Locked

Source: DefiLlama, 21Shares

That is an 81% increase in just 8 days. However, in SUI terms, the TVL only grew by 2.4%. The surge in TVL was driven by SUI’s largest money market protocol Navi protocol – reaching an all-time high in its total value to grow by $100M in less than 5 days.

Figure 4 – SOL vs. SUI Total Value Locked

Source: DefiLlama, 21Shares

As can be seen in the chart above, Sui still has a long way to go to catch up to Solana, which currently has a TVL of $10.39B, up 922% since Sui’s inception in May 2023. Furthermore, Solana’s massive TVL dwarfs Sui by a factor of 11.5X. To catch up to Solana, or eventually topple it, Sui needs to find its product-market fit similar to how Solana has. Solana’s TVL growth is a testament to its ability to capture user attention and its growing importance in the space as a fast, cheap, and scalable settlement network.

Nevertheless, Sui had an impressive leap in terms of active addresses towards the end of May this year, when it sprung to a peak of 2.2M daily users, beating Solana’s 1.4M on May 23rd.

Figure 5 – SOL vs. SUI Daily Active Addresses

Source: Artemis, 21Shares

Looking at the chart, one thing becomes clear. Sui’s traction is largely driven by spikes in activity, such as those seen in August 2023, November 2023 and May 2024. The latest jump associated with the deployment of Mysticeti on testnet, has led to a stickier user base, evidenced by the subsequent drop-off being a lot slower.

That said, Solana has a much more sustained growth in active addresses. In order for Sui to gain greater adoption, it needs to find a consistency to sustain further growth. This trend is also witnessed in Sui and Solana’s daily transactions.

Figure 6 – SOL vs. SUI Daily Transactions

Source: Artemis, 21Shares

The graph above paints a similar picture, of Sui needing to sustain activity over a longer period, in order to build a healthy user base that can help spur the network into the mainstream.

For this to happen, developer activity to ship new features is crucial. On this front, Sui is well positioned. They have a dedicated team at Mysten Labs, fully focused on creating foundational infrastructure for Web3, composed of highly skilled former Meta executives. Their release of Sui Move, the project’s native programming language focused on augmenting transaction throughput via parallelized transactions, underscores their dedication to the space.

Figure 7 – SOL vs. SUI Number of Code Commits

Source: TokenTerminal, 21Shares

Figure 8 – SOL vs. SUI Number of Core Developers

Source: TokenTerminal, 21Shares

As shown above, in recent months Sui has kept an active developer ecosystem similar to the size of Solana. It is important to note while Sui’s code commits are still slightly lagging behind Solana’s, the retention of Sui developers is crucial to the network’s ability to ship new features to its user base. On the other hand, Solana has lost nearly half of their developer count since October 2021, as developers potentially seek alternative opportunities.

Despite the question marks surrounding Sui’s adoption levels, the one angle it beats Solana in is in its affordability. Both Solana and Sui promise low-cost, high-throughput solutions, but as can be seen below, Sui’s average transaction fees remain a lot lower, consistently under the $0.02 mark. The only time Sui’s transaction fees were consistently higher than Solana’s was around May 2023, when the Sui network had just launched!

Figure 9 – SOL vs. SUI Average Transaction Fees

Source: Artemis, 21Shares

It can be argued that this is due to Sui’s relatively lower activity than Solana. However, a closer look tells us that even during Sui’s surge in transactions in May, the average transaction fee didn’t spike but decreased! The opposite is true for Solana. During the peak of the Solana-based memecoin craze in March this year, active addresses surged to nearly 2.5M, and transaction fees followed by peaking to around $0.18, which is more than 9X what it costs to transact on Sui.

That said, Sui does have significantly lower adoption at the moment, hence the limits of its affordability and congestion are likely yet to be battle-tested. To fully understand the ability of Sui, it is necessary to gauge its upkeep and throughput performance during a moment of heightened activity, which relative to Solana, is yet to occur for the network.

What Does This Mean for Investors?

Nevertheless, with a loyal developer base and key features of low cost and high speed, Sui is well positioned to eat into Solana’s market share as an even leaner settlement layer. Sui may serve as a viable investment for investors looking for a higher-risk play, given its 1.23 beta to Solana, and as a potential satellite investment to complement an investor’s crypto portfolio.

For investors interested in investing in Solana via a regulated investment vehicle, the following ETPs are available on the European market.

Figure 10 – Top 5 European Solana ETPs by Assets under Management

Source: Bloomberg, Data as of August 13, 2024.

Avg. Daily Spread YTD (bps): refers to the best daily average bid/ask spread this year across European exchanges.

Staking Yields: 1) 30D Trailing Yield (Annualized) 2) Fixed Annualized Rate 3) Rolling 3M (Annualized)

Off the back of Sui’s growth this year, 21Shares has made a solution available for European investors looking to allocate Sui via a regulated investment vehicle: ASUI. This is the only Sui ETP available on the European market!

Figure 11 – European Sui ETPs

Source: Bloomberg, Data as of August 13, 2024.

Avg. Daily Spread 20D (bps): refers to the best daily average bid/ask spread over the last 20 days across European exchanges.

This Week’s Calendar

Source: Forex Factory, 21Shares

Research Newsletter

Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com

Disclaimer

The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.

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Nickelpriset har kollapsat och fallit från 48 000 dollar till 15 000 dollar per ton

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Indonesien har ett överutbud. Elbilstillverkare byter till LFP-batterier. Efterfrågan på rostfritt stål stannar av. En fjärdedel av tillverkarna är nu under vatten efter att nickelpriset har kollapsat.

Indonesien har ett överutbud. Elbilstillverkare byter till LFP-batterier. Efterfrågan på rostfritt stål stannar av. En fjärdedel av tillverkarna är nu under vatten efter att nickelpriset har kollapsat.

Men här är illusionen:

Det här handlar inte bara om nickel.

Det handlar om systemet som prissätter det.

USA är på väg att betala 952 miljarder dollar i ränta i år – och över 1,1 biljoner dollar år 2026. Det är mer än försvar. Mer än Medicare. Och det är bara kostnaden för att stå still.

Detta svarta finanspolitiska hål tvingar fram ett globalt skifte:

Offentliga investeringar sinar. Industriell efterfrågan saktar ner. Infrastrukturprojekt läggs på is. Och skatterna kommer att stiga – inte för att finansiera tillväxt, utan för att tjäna det förflutna.

Så ja – efterfrågan är svag. Men prissättningsmekanismen är svagare.

Nickel prissätts i dollar. Och dollarn är alltmer en enhet för snedvridning, inte värde. När pengarna går sönder, fallerar prissignalerna.

Men nickel har inte förlorat sin relevans. Det är fortfarande viktigt för turbiner, flygplan, energinät, högdensitetsbatterier och försvar.

Det vi ser nu är inte en kollaps i användbarhet – det är en kollaps i förtroendet.

När illusionerna skingras, dyker verkliga tillgångar upp igen.

Tänk om nickel inte är i kris – bara felprissatt av ett system som inte längre är trovärdigt?

Handla OD7M ETC

WisdomTree Nickel (OD7M ETC) är utformat för att göra det möjligt för investerare att få en exponering mot en total avkastningsinvestering i nickel genom att spåra Bloomberg Nickel Subindex (”indexet”) och ge en säkerhetsavkastning.

WisdomTree Nickel (OD7M ETC)  är en börshandlad råvara som handlas på bland annat London Stock Exchange och tyska Xetra.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETC genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel  Nordnet, SAVR, DEGIRO och Avanza.

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MWRE ETF spårar MSCI World

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Amundi MSCI World UCITS ETF Acc (MWRD ETF) med ISIN IE000BI8OT95, försöker följa MSCI World-indexet. MSCI World-indexet spårar aktier från 23 utvecklade länder över hela världen.

Amundi MSCI World UCITS ETF Acc (MWRE ETF) med ISIN IE000BI8OT95, försöker följa MSCI World-indexet. MSCI World-indexet spårar aktier från 23 utvecklade länder över hela världen.

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,12 % p.a. ETFen replikerar resultatet av det underliggande indexet genom full replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i ETFen ackumuleras och återinvesteras.

Amundi MSCI World UCITS ETF Acc är en mycket stor ETF med tillgångar på 1 666 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 17 januari 2024 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Investeringsmål

Amundi MSCI World UCITS ETF Acc försöker replikera, så nära som möjligt, utvecklingen av MSCI World Index (”Indexet”), oavsett om trenden är stigande eller fallande. Delfondens mål är att uppnå en tracking error-nivå för delfonden och dess index som normalt inte kommer att överstiga 1 %.

Handla MWRE ETF

Amundi MSCI World UCITS ETF Acc (MWRE ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och London Stock Exchange.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnman
Borsa ItalianaEURMWRD
Bolsa Mexicana de ValoresMXNWRDUN
Euronext AmsterdamUSDWRDU
Euronext ParisEURMWRD
SIX Swiss ExchangeUSDMWRD
XETRAEURMWRE
XETRAGBPMWRD

Största innehav

Denna fond använder fysisk replikering för att spåra indexets prestanda.

NamnValutaVikt %Sektor
APPLE INCUSD5.02 %Informationsteknologi
NVIDIA CORPUSD4.95 %Informationsteknologi
MICROSOFT CORPUSD4.83 %Informationsteknologi
AMAZON.COM INCUSD2.75 %Sällanköpsvaror
META PLATFORMS INC-CLASS AUSD1.72 %Kommunikationstjänster
ALPHABET INC CL AUSD1.65 %Kommunikationstjänster
ALPHABET INC CL CUSD1.44 %Kommunikationstjänster
BROADCOM INCUSD1.13 %Informationsteknologi
ELI LILLY & COUSD1.12 %Health Care
TESLA INCUSD1.11 %Sällanköpsvaror

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FEUI ETF investerar i europeiska utdelningsaktier

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Fidelity Europe Quality Income UCITS ETF (FEUI ETF) med ISIN IE00BYSX4176, syftar till att följa Fidelity Europe Quality Income-indexet. Fidelity Europe Quality Income-indexet följer utdelningsbetalande stora och medelstora företag från Europa som har högkvalitativa fundamentala egenskaper.

Fidelity Europe Quality Income UCITS ETF (FEUI ETF) med ISIN IE00BYSX4176, syftar till att följa Fidelity Europe Quality Income-indexet. Fidelity Europe Quality Income-indexet följer utdelningsbetalande stora och medelstora företag från Europa som har högkvalitativa fundamentala egenskaper.

Den börshandlade fondens totala kostnadskvot (TER) uppgår till 0,30 % per år. Fidelity Europe Quality Income UCITS ETF är den billigaste och största ETFen som följer Fidelity Europe Quality Income-indexet. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets resultat genom fullständig replikering (genom att köpa alla indexkomponenter). Utdelningarna i ETFen delas ut till investerarna (kvartalsvis).

Fidelity Europe Quality Income UCITS ETF är en liten ETF med 22 miljoner euro i förvaltningstillgångar. Denna ETF lanserades den 9 september 2019 och har sitt säte i Irland.

Investeringsmål

Fondens mål är att ge investerare en totalavkastning, med hänsyn till både kapital- och inkomstavkastning, vilket återspeglar, före avgifter och kostnader, avkastningen på Fidelity Europe Quality Income Index. För fullständig information om målen, se faktabladet (KID) och prospektet.

Handla FEUI ETF

Fidelity Europe Quality Income UCITS ETF (FEUI ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och London Stock Exchange.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel  Nordnet, SAVR, DEGIRO och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
gettexEURFEUI
Borsa ItalianaEURFEUI
London Stock ExchangeGBPFEUI
SIX Swiss ExchangeCHFFEUI
XETRAEURFEUI

Största innehav

VÄRDEPAPPERVIKT %
ASML HOLDING3,1%
NESTLE (REGD)2,9%
HSBC HOLDINGS (UK)2,4%
ASTRAZENECA EQUITY (GB)2,3%
NOVO-NORDISK B (DK)2,2%
ROCHE HOLDINGS (GENUSSCHEINE) CHF2,1%
UNILEVER ORD2,0%
NOVARTIS (REGD)2,0%
BANCO BILBAO VIZ ARGENTARIA2,0%
IBERDROLA (FORMERLY IBERDUERO)1,9%

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