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Greece The Dangerous Game of Brinkmanship Continues
ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly – Greece The Dangerous Game of Brinkmanship Continues
Highlights
Energy rallies while agriculture pares recent gains.
China A-shares rally on positive indications from MSCI.
Commodity currencies diverge.
Talks between Greece and its creditors collapsed over the weekend adding a further blow to the country’s precarious financial situation after the IMF pulled out discussions last week. Euro-zone finance ministers will meet again on Thursday to try to break the impasse, but the willingness from either side to see a resolution appears to be wearing thin. Elsewhere, the Federal Open Market Committee will host a press conference and present its summary of economic projections after its rate decision, where no change is expected.
Commodities
Energy rallies while agriculture pares recent gains. Natural gas gained 7.6% last week, reversing the previous two week’s losses. Higher power demand driven by air-conditioning needs tend to drive up natural gas demand in the summer period. Above average temperature forecasts for the south east of the US were the catalyst for the recent gains. There were no surprises in the weekly natural gas in storage data with a net change of 111 Bcf, close to 113 Bcf expected. Both Brent and WTI continued to defy the lack of material supply tightening news, with both benchmarks gaining close to 5%. Crude oil prices appear to be reacting to higher demand forecasts, but we believe that the higher prices themselves are likely to choke off demand. Sugar declined a further 3.5% last week, to a 6 year low, driven mainly by a depreciating Brazilian Real exchange rate. The global glut in sugar continues to weigh on sentiment. The USDA surprisingly increased wheat supply forecasts for this year. Wheat had previously been rallying following excess rain in in the key growing areas in the US.
Equities
China A-shares rally on positive indications from MSCI. MSCI declared it is a matter of “when” and not “if” they will include domestically traded A-Shares to its Emerging Market benchmark. MSCI announced that is working with the China Securities Regulatory Commission on overcoming the final roadblocks to inclusion. Furthermore they said they will not necessarily wait to their annual index review to announce inclusion. If reform maintains its current pace, we are likely to see MSCI’s concerns on capital mobility, quota allocation and beneficial ownership quickly resolved. That would pave the way for domestically traded shares to enter the emerging market index that currently has approximately US$1.5tn benchmarked against it. European bourses meanwhile traded lower as concerns about Greece’s precarious finances linger.
Currencies
Commodity currencies diverge. Citing weak commodity prices, falling import prices and subdued wage inflation, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut the official cash rate last week driving the NZD lower. It also expressed concern that the currency is still overvalued despite depreciating since April, and that further rate cuts are possible. The Reserve Bank of Australia also remains dovish. Meanwhile the recent bounce in oil price has supported NOK and CAD, driving the commodity currencies apart. The lack of progress in Greece’s negotiations with its creditors continued to weigh on the Euro. With the IMF pulling out of discussions, the risk of a dramatic end to the standoff between the Greek government and its creditors has now increased. As long as the Fed continues to indicate it is on track to raise rates in September, we are likely to see the US dollar remain a key haven for investors.
Important Information
This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).
Welcome to the State of Crypto Weekly, an investor-focused newsletter from 21shares that dives into the key trends driving the digital asset landscape.
This week, we’re unveiling our Price Predictions series, unpacking the key drivers for the year ahead:
- Where is Bitcoin headed in 2026?
- Why we think Ethereum can go up to $4,200 this year, and what could drag it down to $1,700.
And, should you find yourself in Davos this week, we would love to connect with you. If you’re up for combining alpine views with crypto conversation, please reach out to our President Duncan Moir, Research Strategist Darius Moukhtarzadeh, or Head of Northern Europe Bernhard Wenger.
Predicting prices is arguably the financial world’s favorite game. In the cryptocurrency market, that interest is multiplied by historical narratives around volatility and market reactions. But what really drives prices? And what do we think is on the cards for Bitcoin and Ethereum in 2026?
WHERE IS BITCOIN HEADED IN 2026?
ETF gravity vs. Macro ceiling
The halving’s influence has peaked. By early 2026, Bitcoin’s price will no longer be driven by this supply shift but by how effectively long-term holders absorb sell-offs from ETFs during shifts in the global economy.
WHY WE THINK ETHEREUM CAN GO UP TO $4,200 THIS YEAR…
And what could drag it down to $1,700
Price action is now driven less by the ultrasound money narrative that shaped Ethereum from 2021-2023 and more by ETF flows and whether real economic throughput on Ethereum can translate into sustainable, profitable consumer applications.
This shift has accelerated over the past quarter as Ethereum’s position as the preferred venue for stablecoins and tokenized assets has further consolidated.
In case you missed it
21shares in the world
Commenting on lower inflation data in the US
Crypto research strategist Matt Mena was quoted on CoinDesk: “This morning’s CPI report has provided the definitive anchor the market needed to clear the lingering data fog from late 2025. Core CPI coming in lower than expected reinforces the Fed’s soft landing narrative and increases chances of further cuts this year, even amid political noise around the DOJ’s investigation into Chair Powell.”
Matt was also quoted on Forbes: ”This Supreme Court ruling on federal tariff authority will be a massive volatility driver for both the dollar and risk assets.”
On our radar
What we’re keeping an eye on
Our senior sales associate, Bruna Cabús, will be on CNN Brasil tomorrow, Tuesday, at 7:30 PM BRT to talk about crypto. In the meantime, connect with her on LinkedIn.
Our very own crypto research strategist Darius Moukhtarzadeh will be speaking at Web3 Hub in Davos on Thursday, January 22.
Connect with us today
If you have any questions or want to discuss a product in detail, please visit our website at www.21shares.com
Digitala valutor
Research Newsletter
Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com
Disclaimer
The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.
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