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Gold’s Resilience Strengthens in February

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8 år sedan

den

25 mars, 2017

Gold’s Resilience Strengthens in February. Gold moved through the $1,200 level and showed resilience in February as a number of normally bearish factors failed to weaken prices. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s mid-February testimony to Congress indicated tighter monetary policies, and subsequent comments from regional Fed presidents reinforced Yellen’s hawkish views. This lifted the market odds for a March Fed rate increase and in response the U.S. dollar strengthened considerably, with the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)1 up 1.9% for the month. The weakness in Chinese and Indian demand for physical gold seen in 2016 continued into the new year, and January Swiss trade statistics showed that exports to both China and India are below last year’s levels. In addition, markets in China were closed at the start of the month for the week-long lunar New Year holiday. At the same time, U.S. equities had a strong month with the Dow Jones Industrials Average (DJIA)2 setting a record of twelve straight days of new all-time highs above 20,000 beginning on February 9. While none of these events would typically be supportive of gold, bullion nonetheless gained $37.68 (3.1%) for the month. In fact, through the end of February, gold is up 8.3% and has outperformed the DJIA by 2.5% in the first two months of 2017.

We attribute the recent resilience of gold to three factors: 1) a new era of geopolitical uncertainty since Brexit; 2) February saw the first significant net inflows to bullion exchange traded products since the November U.S. presidential election; and 3) upticks in inflation have caused a decline in real rates. The February releases of both the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI)3 and the Producer Price Index (PPI)4 surprised analysts with their largest monthly jumps in several years. Annual core CPI inflation is now at 2.3%, putting it at the upper bounds of where it has been trending since the 2008-2009 financial crisis.

Lackluster Yearend Reporting Highlighted by Downgrades and Increased Spending

In contrast to bullion, gold stocks lagged in February, as the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDMNTR)5 fell 3.9% and the MVIS™ Junior Gold Miners Index (MVGDXJTR)6 declined 2.2%; however, January’s results have helped to keep the YTD returns strong at 9.2% and 15.3%, respectively. Most gold producers have reported yearend results and given guidance for 2017, but the reporting has been lackluster. Although most producers have met expectations, there have been a few negative surprises that have weighed on their stocks. Additionally, a couple of miners downgraded the quality of their reserves or lowered production forecasts, and a couple of others raised equity. Given higher gold prices, spending is on the upswing. BofA Merrill Lynch expects that North American senior and mid-tier companies will increase total exploration spending by 51% and new project capital by 32% in 2017. While this will reduce cash flow this year, it should pay off with discoveries and developments further down the road.

Gold Stocks Price Movement Not Fundamentally Driven

While these announcements cast a negative tone over the fourth quarter earnings season, they do not explain the significant underperformance of gold stocks relative to bullion. The weakness in gold stocks was exaggerated by the unusual trading on the afternoon of February 27. Gold trended lower beginning around noon that day as Robert Kaplan, President of the Dallas Federal Reserve, made comments supportive of a rate increase, which stimulated U.S. dollar strength. Gold ended the day with a $4.38 (0.3%) loss, reflecting a normal fundamental reaction to the news. In the same afternoon gold stocks reacted as if gold had taken a $30 beating. Trading volumes hit a historic daily high. The unusual trading and lack of fundamental drivers suggest that technically driven funds received sell signals that induced further stop loss selling. What prompted such sell signals is a mystery, but it has resulted in making stock valuations that were already attractive, dirt cheap. Miners will try to turn that dirt into gold.

Gold Looking for a Price Catalyst in 2017 (and It’s Not Likely to be Inflation)

Thus far in 2017, gold has lacked a catalyst that would move the price strongly higher. We believe such a catalyst is likely, but the source and timing are impossible to predict. In the coming months or years, it is our opinion, that a geopolitical, economic, or financial event that motivates investors to seek safe haven7 investments is likely. Given the easy monetary policies globally, recent expectations for growth, and the potential for trade protectionism, we understand those who see inflation as the next gold catalyst. Gold has always reacted strongly to inflation that is out of control. However, while we could be wrong on this, we do not believe that inflation will trend much higher. Much of the increase in inflation over the past twelve months can be attributed to the resurgence in commodities prices from very oversold levels. In our view, the commodities rebound is not likely to further drive inflation in the near term. The popular reflation theme relies on growth and government spending that may not be as strong as expected, as President Trump may face challenges passing his agenda through Congress. Lastly, the Fed seems poised to tighten policies for an extended period, which works against inflation. Until inflation or some other catalyst emerges, we believe that the gold price will follow the usual ups and downs this year but in general terms, will be well supported in 2017.

Substantial Cost Reduction Across Industry Stabilizing

We have just returned from the BMO Capital Markets 26th Annual Global Metals & Mining Conference held in Hollywood, FL, an annual gathering of metals and mining executives, including many gold producers and developers. It is becoming increasingly clear from the yearend reporting results across these mining companies that the substantial decline in mining costs of the past few years is beginning to reach its limits. While we see no mining cost inflation on the horizon, some companies are seeing costs level out. On average, all-in sustaining costs (AISC) for gold companies are now around the $900 per ounce level. Some companies, particularly among the majors, continue to guide for lower costs, which should enable the average to decline further in the next couple of years.

New Crop of Gold Companies Key to Future Growth

In basic terms, one of the most direct ways to create value for shareholders in the gold sector is to discover a piece of real estate in some remote part of the world that can be turned into a gold mine. There is a new crop of emerging producers that attracted significant attention at the BMO Conference. These are development companies that were able to advance projects through a very difficult bear market and are now favorably positioned producers in an improving market. What is remarkable is that each of these companies started production on time and on budget. There have been no indications of significant problems with these startups because they have been staffed with excellent talent and have been able to access high quality engineering and construction teams. Going forward, these companies are now focused on optimization, expansion, and exploration to help grow their businesses.

There are two routes a development company can take: 1) be acquired by a producer, or 2) build a mine. For shareholders, either outcome is attractive provided the mine is successful. Historically most large producers have grown through acquisitions, however acquisitions can be costly because they usually come at a premium. Thus far in this cycle, producers are using a different approach by taking equity stakes in early stage, pre-resource companies that they believe will develop winning properties. Meantime, emerging producers could become the mid-tiers and majors of tomorrow. As we expect production among the majors to stagnate or decline in coming years, these new emerging companies are helping to revitalize the sector. If the major’s current growth strategy does not pay off, these young companies could become the acquisition targets of the future.

by Joe Foster, Portfolio Manager and Strategist

With more than 30 years of gold industry experience, Foster began his gold career as a boots on the ground geologist, evaluating mining exploration and development projects. Foster is Portfolio Manager and Strategist for the Gold and Precious Metals strategy..

Please note that the information herein represents the opinion of the author and these opinions may change at any time and from time to time.

1NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDMNTR) is a modified market capitalization-weighted index comprised of publicly traded companies involved primarily in the mining for gold.
2MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index (MVGDXJTR) is a rules-based, modified market capitalization-weighted, float-adjusted index comprised of a global universe of publicly traded small- and medium-capitalization companies that generate at least 50% of their revenues from gold and/or silver mining, hold real property that has the potential to produce at least 50% of the company’s revenue from gold or silver mining when developed, or primarily invest in gold or silver.
3Safe haven is an investment that is expected to retain its value or even increase its value in times of market turbulence.
4Tail risk is a form of portfolio risk that arises when the possibility that an investment will move more than three standard deviations from the mean is greater than what is shown by a normal distribution.

Important Disclosures

This commentary originates from VanEck Associates Corporation (“VanEck”) and does not constitute an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security.

Liknande ämnen:Gold Joe Foster VanEck

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Defence and AI dominate as European Thematic ETF flows hit record $8.73 billion H1 2025

Publicerad

12 timmar sedan

den

8 juli, 2025

Redaktionen

• Top Performer: Defence (+$7.87 billion)

• Emerging Themes: Cybersecurity (+$318 million), Uranium (+$253 million)

European thematic UCITS ETFs posted a dramatic resurgence in the first half of 2025, with net inflows of $8.73 billion year-to-date, according to ARK Invest Europe’s latest quarterly update detailing H1 2025 European thematic ETF flows.

The turnaround marks a decisive reversal from the muted flows of 2024 ($308 million net outflows for the whole of 2024), as investors rotate back into forward-looking, innovation-driven themes with clearer earnings visibility.

Defence remains the dominant thematic allocation, capturing $7.87 billion in combined net inflows between Global ($4.81 billion) and European ($3.05 billion) defence ETFs underscoring its evolution from a tactical trade to a structural portfolio allocation. Maintaining its position as the defining technological theme, AI ETFs saw $904 million in net inflows, with investor appetite fuelled by relentless innovation in large language models, robotics, and autonomous systems.

In the same period, Cybersecurity ETFs continued to rebuild momentum after significant outflows in 2024 ($311 million net outflows for H1 2024), drawing $318 million, reflecting growing investor conviction in cybersecurity as a structural necessity amid rising digital threats.

Clean Energy ETFs saw outflows of $307 million. As policy momentum stalls in key markets, investors are increasingly selective within the energy transition space. Capital is rotating toward subsectors with clearer economic moats, such as nuclear and grid infrastructure. Supporting this sentiment, Uranium ETFs rank fifth at $253 million, reflecting growing investor interest in the nuclear sector as a potential solution to global energy needs.

Healthcare Innovation ETFs recorded net outflows of $279 million. The drawdown reveals investor caution around legacy biotech firms with uncertain drug pipelines and reimbursement risks. Interest is shifting toward AI-driven healthcare platforms offering faster innovation cycles and more scalable business models.

Electric Vehicles and Battery Tech ETFs saw net outflows of $203 million as investor enthusiasm cools amid subsidy rollbacks and plateauing EV demand in major markets. Persistent concerns around battery raw materials and production bottlenecks have further weighed on the theme.

Rahul Bhushan says, “After a cautious 2024, it’s evident that investors are re-engaging with innovation themes that offer clearer earnings visibility and resilience in an increasingly complex macro landscape. We’re seeing investor conviction in megatrends with structural tailwinds, particularly defence, AI, and energy security. Thematics are no longer just tactical bets, they’re core strategic exposures.”

2025/2024 Comparative Study

Thematics are back

After a weak 2024, investor appetite for thematic risk has returned in force:

• H1 2025 total net inflows: +$8.74B

• That’s a sharp reversal from -$791M in H2 2024 and only +$483M in H1 2024

• The rotation is clear: capital is moving back into forward-looking themes with stronger earnings visibility.

Defence is now a structural trade

• Global and Europe Defence saw a combined $7.87B in inflows in H1 2025 and $1.59B in June alone.

• This continues a multi-quarter surge as geopolitical tensions, rising military budgets, and renewed industrial policy drive long-term allocations.

• Defence is no longer a tactical trade—it’s becoming a core exposure.

AI inflows normalise, but conviction remains

• Artificial Intelligence ETFs drew $904M in H1 2025, following $1.47B in H1 2024.

• Inflows may be slowing, but investor conviction is holding firm.

• With earnings delivery now catching up to narrative, AI remains a centrepiece of thematic portfolios.

Cybersecurity shows signs of stabilisation

After brutal outflows in 2024 (-$311M H1, -$260M H2), cybersecurity ETFs finally saw inflows:

• $318M in H1 2025, including $67M in June.

• This rebound suggests investors are once again prioritising digital resilience in an AI-driven world.

Infrastructure themes are quietly regaining traction

• Global and Europe Infrastructure ETFs pulled in $284M in H1 2025, following modest gains in H2 2024.

• Infrastructure is benefiting from government stimulus, defence modernisation, and the reshoring trade.

Uranium’s steady climb continues

• $253M in H1 2025, after $216M in H2 2024 and $67M in June alone.

• Indeed, the $67M in June alone nearly matches the $66M pulled in during the entirety of H1 2024.

• A rare clean energy theme that’s bucking the downtrend, reflecting growing recognition of nuclear as a pragmatic decarbonisation solution.

Clean Energy sentiment is so bad, it might be investable

• Outflows across all periods: -$307M (H1 2025), -$505M (H2 2024), -$409M (H1 2024)

• June 2025: A mere -$8M

• Sentiment is arguably as negative as it’s ever been—yet structural drivers remain in place. The setup for a contrarian rebound is building.

About ARK Invest Europe

ARK Invest International Ltd (”ARK Invest Europe”) is a specialist thematic ETF issuer offering investors access to a unique blend of active and index strategies focused on disruptive innovation and sustainability. Established following the acquisition of Rize ETF in September 2023 by ARK Investment Management LLC, ARK Invest Europe builds on over 40 years of expertise in identifying and investing in innovations that align financial performance with positive global impact.

Through its innovation pillar and the ”ARK” range of ETFs, ARK Invest focuses on companies leading and benefiting from transformative cross-sector innovations, including robotics, energy storage, multiomic sequencing, artificial intelligence, and blockchain technology. Meanwhile, its sustainability pillar, represented by the ”Rize by ARK Invest” range of ETFs, prioritises investment opportunities that reconcile growth with sustainability, advancing solutions that fuel prosperity while promoting environmental and social progress.

Headquartered in London, United Kingdom, ARK Invest Europe is dedicated to empowering investors with purposeful investment opportunities. For more information, please visit https://europe.ark-funds.com/

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UBS Asset Management lanserar sin första aktivt förvaltade ETF

Publicerad

13 timmar sedan

den

8 juli, 2025

Redaktionen

UBS Asset Management planerar att erbjuda ett utbud av aktiva ETFer som utnyttjar deras differentierade räntebärande kapacitet, följt senare av en serie avkastningsfokuserade ETFer med optionsöverlägg.
Den första som lanseras idag ger tillgång till den aktiva förvaltningsexpertisen hos UBS AMs Credit Investments Group (CIG), en av de ledande förvaltarna av collateralized loan obligations globalt.
Den nya UBS EUR AAA CLO UCITS ETF erbjuder investerare exponering mot den högsta kreditkvaliteten inom CLO-strukturen i ett likvidt och kostnadseffektivt omslag.

UBS Asset Management (UBS AM) tillkännager idag lanseringen av sin första aktivt förvaltade ETF, som ger kostnadseffektiv exponering mot de högst rankade trancherna av marknaden för collateralized loan obligation (”CLO”). UBS EUR AAA CLO UCITS ETF kombinerar den aktiva förvaltningsexpertisen hos UBS AMs Credit Investments Group med skalan hos deras väletablerade ETF-erbjudande.

André Mueller, chef för kundtäckning på UBS Asset Management, sa: ”CLOer erbjuder stark avkastningspotential och diversifieringsfördelar. Att navigera på denna marknad kräver dock förståelse för CLO-strukturer, regleringar och riskerna i denna sektor. Vi har kombinerat mer än 20 års ETF-innovation med expertisen hos vår Credit Investments Group för att effektivt och transparent tillhandahålla de högst rankade CLO-värdepapperen. Den aktiva förvaltningsdelen erbjuder kostnadseffektiv exponering med potential att överträffa.”

John Popp, chef för Credit Investments Group på UBS Asset Management, tillade: ”Vi är glada att kunna erbjuda vår expertis inom hantering av CLO-trancher i över två decennier till en bredare investerarbas. Vårt teams djupa kreditkunskap och meritlista genom flera kreditcykler gör oss väl positionerade för att tillhandahålla övertygande investeringar. På dagens marknad anser vi att AAA CLO-skulder erbjuder en attraktiv risk-avkastningsprofil. Att erbjuda denna investering via en ETF kommer att utöka tillgången till denna växande marknad.”

Den aktiva UBS EUR AAA CLO UCITS ETF* erbjuder tillgång till den växande CLO-marknaden genom en likvid och kostnadseffektiv ETF-struktur, vilket innebär:

Förbättrad avkastningspotential med strukturellt skydd – AAA CLOer erbjuder högre avkastning jämfört med liknande rankade investeringar, med strukturella egenskaper som har testats genom cykler, utan fallissemang ens under perioder av ekonomisk kris**
Portföljdiversifiering – tillgångsslagets rörliga ränta ger betydande diversifieringspotential i samband med en bredare ränteportfölj
Aktiv fördel – Credit Investments Group, en av de främsta förvaltarna av säkerställda låneförpliktelser globalt, hanterar dynamiskt risk och avkastning för att fånga marknadsmöjligheter
ETF-effektivitet – ETF-strukturen möjliggör likviditet och kostnadseffektiv tillgång till denna komplexa tillgångsklass

*Fonden är registrerad för försäljning i Österrike, Schweiz, Tyskland, Danmark, Spanien, Finland, Frankrike, Irland, Italien, Liechtenstein, Luxemburg, Nederländerna, Norge och Sverige.

**S&P Global Ratings, “Default, Transition, and Recovery: 2023 Annual Global Leveraged Loan CLO Default and Rating Transition Study”, 27 juni 2024

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AZEH ETF är en aktivt förvaltad ETF som investerar i Asien ex Japan

Publicerad

14 timmar sedan

den

8 juli, 2025

Redaktionen

iShares Asia ex Japan Equity Enhanced Active UCITS ETF USD (Acc) (AZEH ETF) med ISIN IE000D5R9C23, är en aktivt förvaltad ETF.

Den börshandlade fonden investerar minst 70 procent i aktier från Asien (exklusive Japan). Upp till 30 procent av tillgångarna kan placeras i private equity-instrument, värdepapper med fast ränta med investment grade-rating och penningmarknadsinstrument. Värdepapper väljs utifrån hållbarhetskriterier och en kvantitativ investeringsmodell.

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,30 % p.a. iShares Asia ex Japan Equity Enhanced Active UCITS ETF USD (Acc) är den enda ETF som följer iShares Asia ex Japan Equity Enhanced Active-index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom fullständig replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i ETFen ackumuleras och återinvesteras.

iShares Asia ex Japan Equity Enhanced Active UCITS ETF USD (Acc) är en mycket liten ETF med 9 miljoner euro förvaltade tillgångar. ETFen lanserades den 31 juli 2024 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Investeringsmål

Fonden förvaltas aktivt och syftar till att uppnå långsiktig kapitaltillväxt på din investering, med hänvisning till MSCI AC Asia ex Japan Index (”Riktmärket”) för avkastning.

Handla AZEH ETF

iShares Asia ex Japan Equity Enhanced Active UCITS ETF USD (Acc) (AZEH ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och London Stock Exchange.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRO, Nordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

Börs	Valuta	Kortnamn
Euronext Amsterdam	USD	AXEE
XETRA	EUR	AZEH
London Stock Exchange	GBP	AXEE

Största innehav

Kortnamn	Namn	Sektor	Vikt (%)	ISIN	Valuta
USD	USD CASH	Cash and/or Derivatives	12.85	–	USD
ISTUSAD	BLK ICS US TREAS AGENCY DIS	Cash and/or Derivatives	9.01	IE00B3YQRB45	USD
2330	TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING	Informationsteknologi	8.55	TW0002330008	TWD
700	TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD	Kommunikationstjänster	5.58	KYG875721634	HKD
005930	SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS LTD	Informationsteknologi	4.40	KR7005930003	KRW
9988	ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD	Sällanköpsvaror	2.50	KYG017191142	HKD
GSIFT	CASH COLLATERAL USD GSIFT	Cash and/or Derivatives	2.02	–	USD
1299	AIA GROUP LTD	Finans	1.99	HK0000069689	HKD
000660	SK HYNIX INC	Informationsteknologi	1.27	KR7000660001	KRW
PDD	PDD HOLDINGS ADS INC	Sällanköpsvaror	1.27	US7223041028	USD