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Gold Extends its Strength in April

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9 år sedan

den

15 maj, 2016

Market Review – Gold Extends its Strength in April. The gold market has moved from a position of strength to one of even greater strength. The gold price entered a consolidation in March but never traded below $1,200 per ounce. Late in April the gold price broke out of its consolidating pattern to reach its 2016 high of $1,296 per ounce and ended April at $1,292.99 per ounce for a gain of $60.28 (4.9%). On May 2 gold traded above $1,300 per ounce for the first time since January 2015. We believe that an increasing sense of financial risk and U.S. dollar weakness are driving investment demand for gold. When commenting on the global economy in a Bloomberg interview on April 5, International Monetary Fund (IMF) President Lagarde indicated that downside risks have increased and “we don’t see much by way of upside.” Gold moved to its high for the month following the Commerce Department’s April 28 release of weaker-than-expected first quarter U.S. GDP growth of just 0.5% annualized. Markets seemed confounded by the strength exhibited by the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Euro (EUR), despite negative rate policies in both regions. As a result, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)1 declined 1.7% in April and fell to a 15-month low on May 2.

This year’s bull market in precious metals gained in breadth as silver kicked into gear in April. Like gold, silver is a monetary metal but it had been lagging gold’s performance. In fact, the gold/silver ratio reached a long-term high of 83.2 on March 1. Strong inflows into silver bullion exchange traded products (ETPs) in March and April enabled silver’s year-to-date performance to surpass gold on April 14. For the year, silver is up 28.7%, while gold has gained 21.9% and the gold/silver ratio ended the month at 72.4. We regard silver as a leveraged proxy for gold and wouldn’t be surprised to see the gold/silver ratio continue to fall further towards its long-term average of around 60.

Another sign of the strength of the current market is the performance of gold stocks. On April 8 the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDMNTR)2 surpassed its previous high for the year and never looked back, advancing 28.1% in April. Many of the larger producers announced favorable first quarter results in April, which boosted the performance of gold equities.

Our patience was tested in the first quarter by the underperformance of many junior producers and developers. The junior gold stocks had been lagging but our perseverance has appeared to pay off. The MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index (MVGDXJTR)3 gained 36.8% in April and had lagged the GDMNTR until April 8 but is now outperforming the GDMNTR by 11.7% for the year. The MVGDXJTR caught up with the GDMNTR for the year by outperforming in March with an 8.6% gain.

Market Outlook

We identified several reasons for this year’s spectacular rise in gold stocks, which has caused gold stocks (GDMNTR) to gain 87.4% and the juniors (MVGDXJTR) to gain 99.1% year-to-date:

• Positive changes in sentiment and investment demand for gold.
• Companies have successfully slashed costs, cut debt, gained efficiencies, and generated cash.
• Mean reversion in a sector that had been oversold during the worst bear market in history.
• Elimination of short selling pressure that had been weighing on gold and gold stocks since they crashed in 2013.
• Limited liquidity in a relatively small sector with a global market cap of just $260 billion.

These heady gains suggest to us that gold stocks have become overbought. We expect there will probably be a correction at some point this year. Seasonal patterns have been absent in the gold market for the past several years, possibly due to the overwhelming selling pressure that prevailed. Without such intense selling, we may again see seasonal patterns from Asia and India lead to some weakness in the summer months but strengthening in the fall and extending into the new year. We remain cognizant that GDMNTR is still down 61% from its 2011 highs, which translates to a 159% gain needed to return to 2011 levels. The gold price was much higher in 2011 as well, topping at $1,921 per ounce, but we think the earnings power of the gold sector is greater now than it was back then. We estimate that a $100 (roughly 8%) move in the gold price from $1,300 to $1,400 per ounce would result in a 38% increase in free cash flow for the majors in our research universe, while the mid-tier producers would see a 68% increase in free cash.

The $217 per ounce (23%) increase in the gold price since the U.S. Federal Reserve (the “Fed”) hiked interest rates in mid-December wasn’t caused by a crash or panic in the financial markets. There hasn’t been a systemic crisis and in fact, global conditions today aren’t that different than six months ago when gold struggled near its lows. In our view, the fundamental change that has enabled gold to perform well since the Fed’s rate announcement is a change in investors’ view of central banks. The U.S. dollar has weakened mainly because the market no longer anticipates a series of Fed rate increases. Investors are realizing that central bank policies lack efficacy and have run their course without accomplishing their intended results. In general, central banks appear to be rapidly running out of options to help stimulate economies. In fact, rather than helping, quantitative easing, zero rates, and negative rates have created distortions in capital allocation, leading to the mispricing of assets and currencies, wealth inequality, and possibly other harmful, unintended consequences on the financial system.

We think the solution to most of the world’s problems hinges on re-establishing robust economic growth. A major reason that central bank policies haven’t been able to foster as much growth as desired is that fiscal and regulatory policies are working against them. Governments around the world have increased debt to unheard of levels to raise capital to spend on projects, programs, and entitlements that generate a fraction of the jobs and growth that the same capital may have generated through private sector channels.

The popular perception that the banks were responsible for the subprime crisis has resulted in fines and regulatory burdens that hamper the formation of capital at the center of the financial system. The “wolf” character in the 2013 movie “The Wolf of Wall Street” ran a boiler room on Long Island that was unrelated to investment banks on Wall Street. The 2015 film “The Big Short,” an Academy Award nominee for Best Motion Picture, puts the blame for the financial crisis squarely on the banks. It makes barely any mention of the Government Sponsored Enterprises’ (GSEs such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac4) role in sponsoring subprime loans or the long-running government policies under the Clinton and Bush Administrations that enabled high risk borrowers to own homes despite their inability to service a mortgage. The tone was set in 2009 when President Obama labeled bankers as “fat cats.” While banks certainly played a part, the government played the lead, in our opinion. Unfortunately, these misperceptions and misplaced blame have guided policy, leading to a financial system that is probably weaker than it was before the crisis. We believe that the economy is clearly weaker.

In addition, regulations that burden the private sector have also increased. According to The Wall Street Journal, the Obama Administration is on track to issue 439 major regulations in its 8 years in office, more than the Bush Administration’s 358 or Clinton’s 361. Heaping on more and more regulations only serves to stifle business formation, profitability, and innovation.

A similar tipping point has been reached with tax policies. Some companies have been re-domiciling away from the United States to avoid tax rates that are among the highest in the world. Instead of revising and simplifying the tax code to address the problem, the U.S. Treasury implemented new regulations that force U.S. corporations to remain in the U.S., placing them at a disadvantage to their global peers.

How often do we see leaders in government promote policies that help make business more productive, efficient, or profitable? As to where we are heading, we look to possibly the most monolithic governmental institution in the world. An article published in The Wall Street Journal and written by a retiring United Nations (“UN”) assistant secretary general for field support articulated a sentiment worth sharing. After relocating to the New York headquarters of the UN, he became disheartened, remarking: “If you lock a team of evil geniuses in a laboratory, they could not design a bureaucracy so maddeningly complex, requiring so much effort but in the end incapable of delivering the intended result. The system is a black hole into which disappear countless tax dollars and human aspirations, never to be seen again.”

We believe this is the sentiment that gold investors feel when they see central banks resort to more radical monetary policies in an attempt to spur economies bogged down by taxes, regulations, and bureaucracy. Moreover, there are social policies that incentivize people not to work and foreign policies that have resulted in chaos. The investment demand evidenced by the strong inflows into the bullion ETPs this year suggests that many investors are making a strategic investment in gold to diversify and prepare their portfolios for the uncertainty of a financial system that may become increasingly dysfunctional.

by Joe Foster, Portfolio Manager and Strategist
With more than 30 years of gold industry experience, Foster began his gold career as a boots on the ground geologist, evaluating mining exploration and development projects. Foster is Portfolio Manager and Strategist for the Gold and Precious Metals strategy.

Please note that the information herein represents the opinion of the author and these opinions may change at any time and from time to time.

Important Information For Foreign Investors

This document does not constitute an offering or invitation to invest or acquire financial instruments. The use of this material is for general information purposes.

Please note that Van Eck Securities Corporation offers actively managed and passively managed investment products that invest in the asset class(es) included in this material. Gold investments can be significantly affected by international economic, monetary and political developments. Gold equities may decline in value due to developments specific to the gold industry, and are subject to interest rate risk and market risk. Investments in foreign securities involve risks related to adverse political and economic developments unique to a country or a region, currency fluctuations or controls, and the possibility of arbitrary action by foreign governments, including the takeover of property without adequate compensation or imposition of prohibitive taxation.

Please note that Joe Foster is the Portfolio Manager of an actively managed gold strategy.

Any indices listed are unmanaged indices and include the reinvestment of all dividends, but do not reflect the payment of transaction costs, advisory fees or expenses that are associated with an investment in the Fund. An index’s performance is not illustrative of the Fund’s performance. Indices are not securities in which investments can be made.

1U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) indicates the general international value of the U.S. dollar. The DXY does this by averaging the exchange rates between the U.S. dollar and six major world currencies: Euro, Japanese yen, Pound sterling, Canadian dollar, Swedish kroner, and Swiss franc. 2NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDMNTR) is a modified market capitalization-weighted index comprised of publicly traded companies involved primarily in the mining for gold. 3MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index (MVGDXJTR) is a rules-based, modified market capitalization-weighted, float-adjusted index comprised of a global universe of publicly traded small- and medium-capitalization companies that generate at least 50% of their revenues from gold and/or silver mining, hold real property that has the potential to produce at least 50% of the company’s revenue from gold or silver mining when developed, or primarily invest in gold or silver. 4Fannie Mae (Federal National Mortgage Association); Freddie Mac (Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation)

Please note that the information herein represents the opinion of the author and these opinions may change at any time and from time to time. Not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results or investment advice. Historical performance is not indicative of future results; current data may differ from data quoted. Current market conditions may not continue. Non-VanEck proprietary information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of VanEck. ©2016 VanEck.

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Gold, Bitcoin, and Emerging Markets: Our Market Playbook

Publicerad

2 timmar sedan

den

5 maj, 2025

Redaktionen

Markets are moving fast and keeping up with what this means for your portfolio can be tough. VanEck’s Asset Allocation Committee recently gave an update on market trends and shared how these factors are shaping our core allocation models, the VanEck Wealth Builder Portfolios.

Watch the Webinar Replay Here

Key Highlights

• Gold typically outperforms during the second half of the inflation regime as investors seek protection from social, geopolitical, and financial instability.

• Bitcoin has been the best performing asset class in 8 out of the past 11 years and we strongly believe it deserves a place in investors’ strategic asset allocation.

• Semiconductor valuations have reset: It may be time to reengage after a major repricing since last summer.

• India is one of the most compelling structural growth stories in the market, and the recent India correction is a buying opportunity.

Gold is the Second Half Team (9:33)

Government spending accounts for a whopping one-third of U.S. GDP. Deep spending cuts will likely trigger a recession – which would increase U.S. deficits and cause more inflation. And the risk isn’t just inflation—it’s fragmentation. These cuts are happening amid a trade war, which makes everything more expensive, more uncertain, and more fragile.

This market backdrop, characterized by inflation, war, uncertainty and growing financial instability, is built for gold. Historical data shows that commodities outperform during the first half of the inflation regime, while gold typically outperforms during the second half of the inflation regime as investors seek protection from social, geopolitical and financial instability.

Dividing the Bull Market into Two Halves

Source: Bloomberg, VanEck. “Commodities” represented by the Bloomberg Commodity Index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Any projections, forecasts and other forward-looking statements are not indicative of actual results, are for illustrative purposes only, are valid as of the date of this communication, and are subject to change without notice.

Bitcoin Deserves to be Owned (12:47)

Unlike traditional assets, Bitcoin is decentralized—not controlled by any single government or central bank. It is much more volatile than gold and should not be confused as a risk-off asset. Expect prices to remain under pressure in the near term. However, Bitcoin is well-positioned to rally in the future and continue its strong run of performance.

Bitcoin Has Been the Best Performing Asset Class in 8 Out of the Past 11 Years

Source: Morningstar. As of March 2025. “Bitcoin” represented by MVIS CryptoCompare Bitcoin Index; “US Equities” represented by S&P 500 Index; “Gold” represented by S&P GSCI Gold Spot; “EM Equity” represented by Fidelity Emerging Markets Index; “Real Estate” represented by the NASDAQ Global Real Estate Index; “US Bonds” represented by Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond USD; “Treasuries” represented by Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Treasury Index; “Commodities” represented by Bloomberg Commodity Index. Index definitions included at the end of this presentation. Digital assets are subject to significant risk and are not suitable for all investors. Not intended as an offer or recommendation to buy or sell any assets referenced herein. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Finding Opportunity in the Chaos: Semiconductors and India (13:34)

Market volatility often triggers a flight to safety, but for astute investors, it can also open the door to compelling opportunities. When asset prices move sharply in response to fear, uncertainty, or liquidity pressures, dislocations can emerge—creating mispricings that don’t reflect underlying fundamentals. Two of our favorite areas are in semiconductors related to AI and India—as the U.S. economy slows, global stimulus efforts are accelerating elsewhere, and India remains a top conviction idea.

Comprehensive Model Portfolio Solutions: From Core to Thematic (17:32)

VanEck’s model portfolio solutions span from comprehensive asset allocation to thematic offerings. Our Wealth Builder Plus Portfolios provide core exposure to equities and fixed income with a strategic allocation to real and digital assets. Security selection, which marries the elements of both active and passive strategies, allows the portfolio to adapt to changing markets. Its systematic investment approach focuses on maximizing diversification and monitoring risk to optimize performance over the long term.

To learn more about market trends and portfolio positioning, listen to the full discussion here.

To receive more Model Portfolio insights, sign up in our subscription center.

Article authored by David Schassler

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

This is not an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities, financial instruments or digital assets mentioned herein. The information presented does not involve the rendering of personalized investment, financial, legal, tax advice, or any call to action. Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts and other forward-looking statements, which do not reflect actual results, are for illustrative purposes only, are valid as of the date of this communication, and are subject to change without notice. Actual future performance of any assets or industries mentioned are unknown. Information provided by third party sources are believed to be reliable and have not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness and cannot be guaranteed. VanEck does not guarantee the accuracy of third party data. The information herein represents the opinion of the speaker(s), but not necessarily those of VanEck or its other employees.

The models are not mutual funds or other types of securities and will not be registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission as investment companies under the Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended, and no units or shares of the models will be registered under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, nor will they be registered with any state securities regulator. Accordingly, the models are not subject to compliance with the requirements of such acts.

Investments in bitcoin and other digital assets are subject to significant risk and are not suitable for all investors. It is possible to lose your entire principal investment.

An investment in the Strategy may be subject to risks which include, but are not limited to, risks related to small- and medium-capitalization companies, emerging market issuers, foreign securities, foreign currency, equity securities, credit, interest rate, floating rate, commodities, underlying funds, derivatives, non-diversification, sector, market, economic, political, regulatory, world event, index tracking, cash transactions, operational, authorized participant concentration, no guarantee of active trading market, trading issues, passive management, fund shares trading, premium/discount risk and liquidity of fund shares, issuer-specific changes, and index-related concentration risks, all of which may adversely affect the Strategy. Emerging market issuers and foreign securities may be subject to securities markets, political and economic, investment and repatriation restrictions, different rules and regulations, less publicly available financial information, foreign currency and exchange rates, operational and settlement, and corporate and securities laws risks. Small- and medium-capitalization companies may be subject to elevated risks. Derivatives may involve certain costs and risks such as liquidity, interest rate, and the risk that a position could not be closed when most advantageous.

Please note that any content generated by an Artificial Intelligence (AI) system has not been subject to a human review, and thus no assurance can be made as to its accuracy. Please exercise caution when using AI systems and verify the content produced through such systems wherever possible.

No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of VanEck.

All investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest. As with any investment strategy, there is no guarantee that investment objectives will be met and investors may lose money. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss in a declining market. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

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C051 ETF spårar de 30 företagen med högst direktavkastning i euroområdet

Publicerad

3 timmar sedan

den

5 maj, 2025

Redaktionen

Amundi Euro Stoxx Select Dividend 30 UCITS ETF Dist (C051 ETF) med ISIN LU2611732558, försöker spåra EURO STOXX® Select Dividend 30-index. EURO STOXX® Select Dividend 30-index spårar de 30 företagen med högst direktavkastning från EU-länderna i euroområdet.

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,25 % p.a. Amundi Euro Stoxx Select Dividend 30 UCITS ETF Dist är den billigaste ETF som följer EURO STOXX® Select Dividend 30-index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom fullständig replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i ETFen delas ut till investerarna (Årligen).

Amundi Euro Stoxx Select Dividend 30 UCITS ETF Dist är en liten ETF med tillgångar på 64 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 21 mars 2024 och har sin hemvist i Luxemburg.

Investeringsmål

Amundi Euro Stoxx Select Dividend 30 UCITS ETF Dist försöker replikera så nära som möjligt utvecklingen av EURO STOXX Select Dividend 30 (Net Return) EUR Index (”Indexet”) oavsett om trenden är stigande eller fallande. Delfondens mål är att uppnå en tracking error-nivå för delfonden och dess index som normalt inte överstiger 1 %.

Handla C051 ETF

Amundi Euro Stoxx Select Dividend 30 UCITS ETF Dist (C051 ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på Deutsche Boerse Xetra.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRO, Nordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

Börs	Valuta	Kortnamn
XETRA	EUR	C051

Största innehav

Namn	Valuta	Vikt %	Sektor
ABN AMRO BANK NV-CVA	EUR	6.15 %	Finans
ING GROEP NV	EUR	6.12 %	Finans
BANKINTER SA	EUR	5.47 %	Finans
NN GROUP NV	EUR	4.91 %	Finans
BNP PARIBAS	EUR	4.43 %	Finans
AGEAS	EUR	4.37 %	Finans
ASR NEDERLAND NV	EUR	4.04 %	Finans
POSTE ITALIANE SPA	EUR	3.90 %	Finans
OMV AG	EUR	3.67 %	Energi
K+S AG-REG	EUR	3.66 %	Materials

Denna fond använder fysisk replikering för att spåra indexets prestanda.

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Crypto’s current one-two punch: Bitcoin and stablecoins

Publicerad

4 timmar sedan

den

5 maj, 2025

Redaktionen

Volatility reared its head across the financial markets in April and crypto assets were not spared. The uncertainties around tariff policy in the aftermath of “Liberation Day” led to a month where bitcoin (BTC) dropped below $76,000 before recovering mid-month and rising nearly 25% off that low through yesterday.

Equities and other risk assets were also exposed to this volatility, but what was notable to see is that, once again, crypto assets recovered faster than other risk assets. Using the Nasdaq Crypto IndexTM (NCITM) as the proxy for the digital asset market, we can see that crypto outperformed both the S&P 500 and gold in the weeks following the US regional banking crisis in early 2023, the yen carry trade unwinding in August of 2024, and the implementation of Trump’s tariffs this month.

Source: Hashdex Research with data from CF Benchmarks and Bloomberg (from March 9, 2023 to April 27, 2025). Since 30 full days have not yet passed since “Liberation Day,” we use performance data up through 4/27/25 to illustrate the period.

Why is this? We are seeing a growing convergence of market behavior, regulatory progress, and real-world use cases that are strengthening the investment case for crypto. Two major developments in particular deserve attention. First, bitcoin is maturing as a store-of-value asset, increasingly behaving like “digital gold” in institutional portfolios. Second, the rapid global adoption of stablecoins and the emerging tokenization trend are reinforcing the value proposition of smart contract platforms like Ethereum and Solana, underscoring their role as the infrastructure layer of a new financial system. Together, these trends are accelerating crypto’s integration into the global economy and creating compelling long-term investment opportunities.

Bitcoin’s growing role as a store of value

Bitcoin’s core investment thesis has long centered around its scarcity, decentralization, and resistance to censorship. But for much of its history, it was seen more as a speculative asset than a reliable store of value. We are seeing increasing evidence that this perception is now shifting, notably last week when BTC rose alongside gold as stock indices fell and the US dollar hit a three-year low.

Three developments have been key to bitcoin’s evolution as a store-of-value asset:

Macro environment alignment: Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a hedge against currency debasement and long-term monetary instability. With developed economies still grappling with inflationary pressures and debt sustainability, investors are reassessing the role of hard assets in portfolios. Gold has historically served this role—but bitcoin, with its verifiable scarcity (a fixed 21 million supply), global liquidity, and portability, is increasingly seen as a digital alternative. Recent correlations during macro events further reinforce this view. In 2023 and early 2024, bitcoin often moved in tandem with gold during geopolitical tensions and inflationary scares, signaling that markets are beginning to treat it as a safe-haven asset rather than a purely risk-on trade.
Institutional infrastructure and spot ETFs: The launch of US-listed spot bitcoin ETFs in early 2024 marked a watershed moment. This development provided investors with a simple, regulated, and cost-efficient way to gain exposure to bitcoin through traditional financial channels. As more institutional-grade custody, execution, and compliance infrastructure goes live, we expect bitcoin’s correlation with traditional safe-haven assets to strengthen further, reinforcing its store-of-value narrative.
On-chain metrics and long-term holders: Perhaps most telling is the behavior of bitcoin holders. On-chain data shows that a significant percentage of bitcoin is now held by long-term investors—wallets that have not moved funds for over a year. These holders typically exhibit low sensitivity to price volatility and reflect growing confidence in bitcoin as a long-term asset. This behavior supports price stability and reduces sell pressure during market downturns. It also aligns with the characteristics we expect from a mature store-of-value asset.

Stablecoins, tokenization, and the smart contract opportunity

While bitcoin is moving toward a role as digital gold, the demand for stablecoins—digital assets pegged to fiat currencies, most commonly the US dollar—is rising. In addition, tokenized money-market funds are on the rise since the beginning of 2023, with traditional institutions, such as BlackRock and UBS, already tapping into this market and gathering billions of dollars under management in their own version of yield-bearing dollar tokens. Ethereum, its suite of Layer-2 solutions, and other smart contract platforms like Solana and Avalanche are the very networks used to tokenize real-world assets, facilitating transactions and adding programmability and new utility made possible due to the speed, security and composability of public blockchains. Dollar stablecoins, particularly USDC and USDT, now facilitate nearly $3 trillion in annual transaction volume, surpassing the combined volumes of PayPal, Venmo, and Western Union. Their utility spans remittances, on-chain trading, and merchant payments.

The growth of stablecoins and tokenization is clearly not merely a crypto-native phenomenon. Financial institutions and fintech companies are integrating stablecoins into their products, and multiple jurisdictions—from Singapore to Brazil to the US—are exploring regulatory frameworks to support their use.

So, why does this matter for Ethereum and other smart contract platforms?

Stablecoins and tokenization drive blockchain activity: Stablecoins are the most widely used applications on programmable public blockchains. Ethereum remains the dominant platform for stablecoin issuance and transaction settlement, and its competitors are also experiencing continued growth in the past several years. This trend generates fees on these networks, securing demand for their native tokens, and incentivizing ongoing infrastructure development. This economic activity supports the investment case for assets like ETH and SOL as “yield-generating” assets (through staking) and as the fuel required to power network computation.
Network effects and platform stickiness: Smart contract platforms benefit from strong developer mindshare, extensive tooling, and a deep ecosystem of wallets, DeFi protocols, and onramps. Stablecoins and tokenization amplify this ecosystem by making blockchains more usable and more financially relevant to everyday users. As these become embedded into mainstream financial products—like savings accounts, neobanks, and cross-border commerce—they create persistent demand for the networks that support them.
Smart contract monetization models: The success of stablecoins and the emerging trend of tokenization also hint at the business models of tomorrow. Blockchains that can efficiently process high volumes of transactions—while maintaining low fees and regulatory compliance—will capture significant value.

Implications for investors

These dual narratives—bitcoin as digital gold and smart contract platforms as financial infrastructure—are not mutually exclusive. They complement one another and represent two pillars of the evolving digital asset thesis. For long-term investors, this presents a clearer framework for portfolio construction:

• Bitcoin: A macro hedge and store of value, increasingly playing a role similar to gold in diversified portfolios. Best positioned to benefit from macro uncertainty and institutional adoption.

• Smart contract platforms: Growth assets tied to the expansion of on-chain economic activity, especially in stablecoin usage, tokenization, and DeFi. These platforms will benefit from network usage, staking yields, and infrastructure adoption.

As always, risks remain—from regulatory fragmentation to network competition. But unlike previous cycles, we are now seeing real-world adoption driving demand and investor interest. Bitcoin and smart contract platforms are no longer just ideas. They are working systems with proven use cases and growing economic gravity.

At Hashdex, we believe digital assets are entering a new phase—one characterized less by speculative mania and more by measurable integration into the global economy. Bitcoin’s maturing role as a store of value, alongside smart contracts’ central position in powering stablecoin and tokenization infrastructure, underscores this shift.

Our index-based investment strategies are built to capture this evolution: favoring assets with enduring network effects, regulatory momentum, and demonstrated economic utility. As the market continues to evolve, we remain committed to helping investors navigate this journey with clarity, conviction, and a long-term mindset.