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Genesis Capital struggles to raise the funds needed to stave off bankruptcy

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The Nasdaq Crypto Index (NCI) closed Sunday (11/27/22) 1.2% above last week’s closing. The index’s neutral performance was influenced by ether (ETH), up 2.8%, while bitcoin (BTC) remained stable.

The Nasdaq Crypto Index (NCI) closed Sunday (11/27/22) 1.2% above last week’s closing. The index’s neutral performance was influenced by ether (ETH), up 2.8%, while bitcoin (BTC) remained stable.

Coming out of a week dominated by fears that Genesis Global Capital would be forced to declare bankruptcy, investors braced for more bad Genesis news and the possibility that other counterparties might become insolvent before the Thanksgiving holiday due to FTX’s collapse.

On Monday, BTC prices began to sink around midday on the East Coast after Bloomberg published an article claiming that Genesis Capital was “struggling” to raise the $1 billion it would need to remain solvent. Genesis Global reacted to the article by releasing a statement that clarified it had “no plans to file bankruptcy imminently.” As closing hours neared for stock markets in the US, BTC registered its weekly low of $15,665—its lowest price point in over two years.

Crypto assets registered a modest recovery on Monday evening, but fell again during early hours of Tuesday. ETH reached its weekly low of $1,082 shortly after the Wall Street Journal published an article confirming Bloomberg’s unidentified Genesis source. In the article, the WSJ claimed that Binance had refused to bail out the troubled crypto lender due to potential conflicts of interest. The article also cited that Genesis had approached private equity firm Apollo Global Management, but did not reveal the state of those negotiations.

Crypto markets began recovering as US markets opened on Tuesday and regained upward momentum in the afternoon when Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester stated that it “makes sense that we can slow down a bit the … pace of (rate) increases.” Her comments echoed those made by other Fed officials, all of which suggested that the worst of the current rate hike cycle is in the rear view mirror. Before Tuesday gave way to Wednesday, all major US stock indexes closed in the green, BTC gained over $750 and ETH surged by $80.

On Wednesday, prices began losing steam as US stock markets opened. However, later that day, November’s Fed minutes were released. The FOMC’s meeting notes reaffirmed that “a substantial majority of (meeting) participants judged that a slowing in the pace of increase would likely soon be appropriate”.” News that the Fed had confirmed its more dovish outlook in writing would ensure that traditional markets closed in the green once again and that crypto markets would sustain an upward trajectory until late in the night, when BTC reached its weekly high of $16,753.

On Thursday, BTC prices would taper down, before recovering on Friday to settle just above $16,500. BTC prices would remain stable while moving sideways as trading volume slowly fell throughout the weekend. ETH’s price slowly rose throughout the entirety of Friday, eventually registering its weekly high of $1,221 in the day’s final hours and before stabilizing just below that threshold for the remainder of the weekend.

Looking ahead

Investors will continue to monitor the fallout of the FTX collapse, but some analysts believe an eventual Genesis Capital’s bankruptcy may have already been priced in. On Wednesday, the release of the eurozone Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be on the radar of investors concerned about global inflation. On Thursday, the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index could confirm that inflation is waning in the US and reassure investors that the Fed will announce a 50 bps rate hike in mid December.

FTX hack continues to puzzle crypto analysts

During the last two weeks, investors have been monitoring developing stories related to mysterious hacks. After a week of disastrous news for FTX, the troubled exchange managed to give investors one final scare before turning in for the weekend by announcing it had been hacked. Initial reports suggested $600 million in tokens were drained from FTX wallets

The breach was originally divulged by an account administrator in an FTX Support Telegram chat. Later, FTX General Counsel Ryne Miller claimed in a tweet that the transactions resulted from “precautionary steps to move all digital assets to cold storage.” Others speculated that the funds were moved at the behest of Bahamian Financial authorities. Neither statements appear to be true.

During the following week, the hacker converted such a large volume of tokens into ETH, making the wallet in question the 35th largest amongst all ETH addresses on November 16th. Last week, the malicious actor spent the weekend converting millions of ETH to Ren bitcoin (renBTC), an ERC-20 token used to represent the value of BTC in other blockchains, possibly in an attempt to launder the funds. Analysts continue to monitor the hacker’s activities, and we’ll keep a close eye on the matter to make sure Hashdex investors stay up-to-date with the unfoldings.


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Each of the aforementioned parties expressly disclaims any and all liability relating to or resulting from the use of the Information or such other information. Except where otherwise indicated, the Information is based on matters as they exist as of the date of preparation and not as of any future date and will not be updated or otherwise revised to reflect information that subsequently becomes available, or circumstances existing or changes occurring after the date hereof. Investing in financial markets, the Funds and digital assets, including Bitcoin, DeFi tokens, and Ethereum, involves a substantial degree of risk. There can be no assurance that the investment objectives described herein will be achieved. Any investment in the Funds may result in a loss of the entire amount invested. Investment losses may occur, and investors could lose some or all of their investment. No guarantee or representation is made that Hashdex’s investment strategy, including, without limitation, its business and investment objectives, diversification strategies or risk monitoring goals, will be successful, and investment results may vary substantially over time. Nothing herein is intended to imply that the Hashdex Group’s investment methodology or that investing any of the protocols or tokens listed in the Information or the Funds may be considered “conservative,” “safe,” “risk free,” or “risk averse.” Neither historical returns nor economic, market or other performance is an indication of future results. Certain information contained herein (including financial information) has been obtained from published and non-published sources. Such information has not been independently verified by Hashdex Group, and Hashdex Group does not assume responsibility for the accuracy of such information. Hashdex Group does not provide tax, accounting or legal advice. Certain information contained herein constitutes forward-looking statements, which can be identified by the use of terms such as “may,” “will,” “should,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “project,” “estimate,” “intend,” “continue” or “believe” (or the negatives thereof) or other variations thereof. Due to various risks and uncertainties, including those discussed above, actual events or results, the ultimate business or activities of Hashdex Group or the Funds or the actual performance of Hashdex Group, the Funds, or digital tokens may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements. As a result, investors should not rely on such forward- looking statements in making their investment decisions. None of the Information has been filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, any securities administrator under any state securities laws or any other governmental or self-regulatory authority. No governmental authority has opined on the merits of the offering of any securities by the Funds or Hashdex, or the adequacy of the information contained herein.

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Harwood Capital Management samarbetar med HANetf för att lansera sin första UCITS ETF

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Harwood Capital Management samarbetar med HANetf för att lansera en global aktie-ETF. Harwood är en brittisk kapitalförvaltare som vill använda sina investeringsförvaltnings- och rådgivningstjänster för att skapa betydande avkastning för investerare.
  • Harwood Capital Management samarbetar med HANetf för att lansera en global aktie-ETF. Harwood är en brittisk kapitalförvaltare som vill använda sina investeringsförvaltnings- och rådgivningstjänster för att skapa betydande avkastning för investerare.
  • Detta kommer att vara Harwoods första ETF och kommer att drivas av dess senaste satsning, Goshawk Asset Management. HANetfs white-label-plattform tillåter kapitalförvaltare från hela världen att lansera UCITS-ETFer och krypto- och råvaru-ETCer i Europa med minimala inträdesbarriärer.

HANetf, Europas första och enda oberoende white-label UCITS ETF och ETC-plattform, och ledande leverantör av ETP:er för digitala tillgångar, är glada över att tillkännage sitt partnerskap med Harwood Capital Management för att gemensamt utveckla en ny UCITS ETF i Europa.

Harwood Capital Management är en brittisk baserad kapitalförvaltare etablerad 2003, som syftar till att använda sina investeringsförvaltnings- och rådgivningstjänster för att ge betydande avkastning för investerare. Detta partnerskap lägger grunden för en aktiv UCITS ETF-lansering för att säkerställa att Goshawks strategier är tillgängliga för ETF-investerare.

HANetf är en white-label ETP-leverantör som arbetar med kapitalförvaltare och entreprenöriella företag för att erbjuda differentierade moderna och innovativa produkter till europeiska investerare. HANetf har utfärdat produkter för partners från hela världen, inklusive USA, Kanada, Storbritannien, Europa och Mexiko. HANetf tillhandahåller en komplett operativ regulatorisk distributions- och marknadsföringslösning för att lansera och hantera UCITS ETFer och ETCer kostnadseffektivt och med kortare tid till marknad.

Hector McNeil, medgrundare och co-VD för HANetf, kommenterar: ”Det är fantastiskt att samarbeta med Harwood Capital Management för att lansera en ny UCITS ETF i Europa. På HANetf är vi stolta över vår förmåga att göra det möjligt för kapitalförvaltare från hela världen att lansera nya och innovativa produkter i Europa, med minimala hinder för inträde.

”Europeiska ETF-inflöden nådde 169 miljarder USD 2023, en ökning med 88 procent jämfört med 2022. Medan den amerikanska ETF-marknaden fortfarande är den största, kommer Europa snabbt ikapp, och kapitalförvaltare inser detta. White-label-förfrågningar på HANetf har ökat med 40 procent i år hittills och vi förväntar oss att siffran kommer att fortsätta växa.”

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JPVE ETF en valutasäkrad fond som köper amerikanska värdeaktier

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JPM Active US Value UCITS ETF - EUR Hedged (acc) (JPVE ETF) med ISIN IE000CQQ22C8 är en aktivt förvaltad ETF som investerar i amerikanska värdeaktier och strävar efter att generera en högre långsiktig avkastning än Russell 1000 Value-index. Aktierna som ingår filtreras enligt ESG-kriterier (miljö, social och bolagsstyrning). Valutasäkrad till euro (EUR).

JPM Active US Value UCITS ETF – EUR Hedged (acc) (JPVE ETF) med ISIN IE000CQQ22C8 är en aktivt förvaltad ETF som investerar i amerikanska värdeaktier och strävar efter att generera en högre långsiktig avkastning än Russell 1000 Value-index. Aktierna som ingår filtreras enligt ESG-kriterier (miljö, social och bolagsstyrning). Valutasäkrad till euro (EUR).

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,49 % p.a. JPMorgan Active US Value UCITS ETF EUR Hedged (acc) är den enda ETF som följer JPMorgan Active US Value (EUR Hedged)-index. ETF:n replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom full replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i ETFen ackumuleras och återinvesteras.

JPMorgan Active US Value UCITS ETF EUR Hedged (acc) är en mycket liten ETF med tillgångar på 2 miljoner euro under förvaltning. ETF lanserades den 18 januari 2024 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Möjlighet

Erfaret portföljförvaltningsteam med i genomsnitt 30 års branscherfarenhet

Utnyttja de bästa idéerna från JPMorgans dedikerade tillväxtforskningsteam, förutom grundläggande insikter från över 20 amerikanska aktiekarriäranalytiker, alla med i genomsnitt 20+ års branscherfarenhet

Portfölj

Kombinerar två av JPMorgans beprövade aktiva amerikanska aktiestrategier (tillväxt med stora bolag och tillväxtfördelar), som kombineras för att leverera en diversifierad portfölj av amerikanska tillväxtaktier med underskattad tillväxtpotential över sektorer.

Resultat

Aktivt förvaltad investeringsstrategi som strävar efter att leverera en stilren tillväxtaktieportfölj med en viss grad av marknadskapitalflexibilitet

Investeringsmål

Delfonden strävar efter att uppnå en långsiktig avkastning som överstiger Russell 1000 Growth Index (Netto Total Return of 30% källskatt på utdelning) (”riktmärket”) genom att aktivt investera främst i en tillväxtstilsorienterad portfölj av amerikanska företag .

Handla JPVE ETF

JPM Active US Value UCITS ETF – EUR Hedged (acc) (JPVE ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och Borsa Italiana.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
Borsa ItalianaEURJAVE
SIX Swiss ExchangeEURJAVE
XETRAEURJPVE

Största innehav

NamnISINVikt %
BANK OF AMERICA CORPUS06050510463.49%
Cash and Cash Equivalent3.27%
CHEVRON CORPUS16676410052.84%
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC-CL BUS08467070262.80%
ABBVIE INCUS00287Y10912.07%
EXXON MOBIL CORPUS30231G10222.03%
WELLS FARGO & COUS94974610152.02%
NXP SEMICONDUCTORS NVNL00095387841.82%
CSX CORPUS12640810351.69%
CONOCOPHILLIPSUS20825C10451.69%

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Bitcoin Survives Bear Trap

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Bitcoin has witnessed some heavy price turbulence after breaking the $71K mark in early June. Since then, it lost almost 21% in value scraping the key level of $55K in the first week of July.

Bitcoin has witnessed some heavy price turbulence after breaking the $71K mark in early June. Since then, it lost almost 21% in value scraping the key level of $55K in the first week of July.

Figure 1 – Bitcoin Price

Source: Glassnode

However, since last Friday, Bitcoin has gained $7K and is now trading around the $64K mark. But why has it been such a turbulent time for Bitcoin?

Factors Contributing to the Selling Pressure

• Bitcoin Miner Activity

• German Government Sell-Offs

• Mt. Gox Repayment Program & Bitcoin Exchange Liquidity

Bitcoin Miner Activity

The BTC selling pressure was earmarked by miner activity, after selling 30K BTC in June. This sell-off marked miners’ BTC reserves at the lowest in a decade, just over 1.8K BTC.

Figure 2 – Bitcoin Miner Balance’

Source: Glassnode

Miners have however reduced their activity on-exchange, which should calm fears further. In June, miners were moving an average of around 50 BTC or just under $3M per day to exchanges, which has now slowed down, as shown below.

Figure 3 – Bitcoin Transfer Volume from Miners to Exchanges

Source: Glassnode

On top of that, on-chain data shows the 30-day moving average of Bitcoin’s hash rate is starting to close the gap with the 60-day moving average, for the first time since May. This indicates miners are experiencing lower income stress, which typically signals a market bottom.

Figure 4 – Bitcoin’s Hash Ribbon Indicator

Source: Glassnode

As a result, miner reserves have slowly started to pick back up, as shown in the first figure. This could indicate that the miner sell-offs post-halving, due to reduced profitability, have tapered off which is another reason to be cautiously positive.

German Government Sell-Offs

The German Goverment had been in the process of completing the sale of 50K BTC seized from a pirating website, Movie2k, which was worth approximately $3B when the sell-offs started.

Figure 5 – German Government Holdings

Source: @obchakevich on Dune Analytics

Bitcoin had a shaky June and July. However, in the week Germany sold almost 80% of their holdings, 40K BTC or $2.2B worth, Bitcoin’s price remained fairly resilient, a testament to its strength in adverse market conditions. That being said, according to data from Arkham Intelligence, the German Government engaged via OTC trades, to minimize potential slippage and market impact.

Figure 6 – Bitcoin Price (7 July – 14 July)

Source: Glassnode

Nevertheless, the conclusion of these sell-offs is positive for Bitcoin, as it removes a significant dark cloud from the market, and demonstrates the asset’s resilience.

Mt. Gox Repayment Program

However, Bitcoin faces selling pressure due to the upcoming Mt. Gox repayment program. Starting in July 2024, Mt. Gox began repaying approximately $9B worth of assets to its creditors, who have been waiting for over a decade since the exchange’s collapse in 2014.

Figure 7 – Mt. Gox Holdings

Source: @21co on Dune Analytics

Of the approximate 142K BTC held by Mt. Gox, 139K BTC is left to be reimbursed, equating to approximately 2% being paid back as of today, indicating a slow sale rate. However, yesterday Mt. Gox shuffled almost 96K BTC between their wallets, which contributed to the renewed FUD, as they prepare to distribute the reimbursements. While the repayment sum is very large, it is unlikely that these creditors will sell off their BTC immediately, given their long-term belief in the crypto industry given their involvement a decade ago, and the potential capital gains tax implications associated with the asset. The selling pressure is further diluted by the fact that reimbursements will likely occur on different days across different exchanges.

Bitcoin Exchange Liquidity

Despite, Bitcoin’s apparent survival. Let’s take a closer look at how the remaining BTC could affect the market. 139K BTC or $8.93B worth remains for Mt. Gox to restore to creditors, who may end up selling their assets. To gauge the market impact of this, it may help to look at Bitcoin’s liquidity on exchange. Presuming they aim to sell their BTC, the sell-offs will likely occur by trading with a fiat pair (BTC/USD) or a stablecoin pair (BTC/USDT or BTC/USDC). The top 5 most liquid exchanges are listed below, with their respective liquidity depths in dollar and BTC terms (assuming July’s average price of $59K).

Figure 8 – Centralized Exchange % Depth

Source: Coingecko

As to not mitigate the market impact, the sell-offs are likely to occur across several exchanges. The five most liquid exchanges need around $72M outflows, on a given day to have a 2% downward price swing. The potential sell-offs are contingent on creditors finally receiving their assets from Mt. Gox, which is happening very slowly. Furthermore, it is doubtful that once received, they will sell all their BTC immediately, and as such any price action is largely resulting from the negative market sentiment associated with this event.

On-Chain Metrics

Despite the negativity surrounding the market, looking on-chain could help uncover dynamics that might make investors feel positive, and we propose 3 different indicators to look at.

The Market Value to Realized Value Ratio (MVRV) is a metric that assesses Bitcoin’s market valuation relative to its realized value, helping identify market tops and bottoms.

    A high MVRV indicates overvaluation and a potential market top, while a low score indicates undervaluation and a potential market bottom.

    Figure 9 – Bitcoin MVRV Score

    Source: Glassnode

    The current MVRV is around levels seen at the end of December 2020, just before Bitcoin rallied from $11K to around the $60K mark. This is also similar to the levels seen towards the end of last year, before the ETF craze which drove Bitcoin to a new all-time high of $75K in early March. Given these historical precedents, this MVRV level suggests a potential for significant upside, making it an opportune time for investors to consider entering the market.

    Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicates the difference between investors’ unrealized profits and losses to assess market sentiment, with positive values suggesting profit-dominant sentiment and negative values indicating loss-dominant sentiment.

      This metric is another reason for positivity. Currently, Bitcoin’s NUPL is in the optimism/denial phase, indicating moderate unrealized profits among investors. This suggests that market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, after recent price stagnations led NUPL to drop, and belief to be wiped away. That being said, this is a healthy consolidation for the asset and potentially allows it to spur on.

      Figure 10 – Bitcoin Net Unrealized Profit/Loss

      Source: Glassnode

      1. Fear and Greed Index measures market sentiment, with values ranging from 0 (extreme fear) to 100 (extreme greed). It helps investors gauge whether the market is overly bearish or bullish, indicating potential buying or selling opportunities.

      Figure 11 – Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index

      Source: Glassnode

      The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index was often in the ‘Fear’ region during June and early July. However, this was a positive sign, as it was near levels we had not seen since September 2023, when the asset was trading at $26K, which preceded a historical price rally. Over the weekend, the Fear and Greed Index sprung to Greed levels, suggesting we might be on track for another parabolic run.

      Conclusions

      • Bitcoin’s turbulence has stemmed from significant selling pressures, particularly the Mt. Gox repayment program.

      o The impact of these sell-offs is moderated by Bitcoin’s strong exchange liquidity and potential ETF inflows.
      • The dark cloud of the German Government sell-offs is out of the way.

      • On-chain metrics suggest the potential for a bullish reversal, indicating now might be an opportune time for investors to consider entering the market.

      For investors looking to invest in Bitcoin via a regulated investment vehicle, the following ETPs are available on the European market:

      Figure 12 – Top 10 European Bitcoin Products by Assets Under Management Product Ticker

      Source: Bloomberg, Data as of July 16th, 2024.

      Avg. Daily Spread 20D (bps): refers to the best daily average bid/ask spread over the last 20 days across European exchanges.

      This Week’s Calendar

      Source: Forex Factory, 21Shares

      Research Newsletter

      Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com

      Disclaimer

      The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.

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