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G20 summit in Rio: Lula enhances Brazil’s international reputation
From 18 to 19 November 2024, Brazil will host the G20 summit in Rio for the first time as the focus of the world’s most important platform for global economic cooperation.
The coalition, which includes the USA, China, India, the E U and, most recently, the African Union, represents the world’s most important economies, which, according to OECD figures, account for around 80 per cent of global gross domestic product, 75 per cent of world trade and two thirds of the world’s population.
Since Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) took up his third uninterrupted term of office at the beginning of 2023, he has spent a lot of time abroad to improve his country’s image in the world. His efforts could pay off. A recent Pew Research survey found that most Brazilian adults are optimistic about their country’s status as an international power.
In addition to the G20, Brazil is also set to host other high-profile events such as the UN Climate Change Conference (COP30) and the BRICS summit (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) in 2025, while also seeking membership of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
In the almost three years since Brazil initiated its formal accession process for OECD membership, the country has achieved many milestones on the road to this goal. If successful, Brazil would be in a unique position to influence the increasing geopolitical and economic competition between industrialised and developing countries, as it is the only country to be represented in the BRICS, the G20 and the OECD simultaneously.
As the eighth largest economy in the world and the largest economy in Latin America, Brazil could be a strong link in the global discourse on key issues for the Global South (according to UN Trade and Development, the Global South essentially comprises Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, Asia excluding Israel, Japan and South Korea, and Oceania excluding Australia and New Zealand).
These issues include, above all, the fight against hunger, poverty and inequality, sustainable development and the reform of global governance. If Brazil is able to achieve political and financial commitments to progress on priorities such as digital infrastructure, this could lead not only to an increase in Brazil’s GDP, but also to a narrowing of the economic and urban-rural divide and a reduction in gender inequality. Consider that the introduction of a relatively new instant money transfer platform operated by the central bank, known as Pix, has already promoted financial inclusion and increased access to banking services from around 70 per cent of the population to more than 84 per cent (source: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace).
We expect that an OECD seal of approval for Brazil will also encourage global investors seeking the assurance of the Coalition’s high standards for the ease of doing business. A seat at the table would give Brazil a stronger voice in shaping best practices and global frameworks for rapidly evolving technology standards. Brazilian companies specialising in artificial intelligence and financial technology are already among the largest in South America.
As the largest oil producer in Latin America, resource-rich Brazil is a leader in the energy sector, as it is one of the ten largest oil producers in the world (according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Brazil produced 4 per cent of the world’s total oil production at the end of 2023). However, the country’s largest sector is finance, with a weighting of more than 36 per cent according to the MSCI Brazil Index.
Central bank in interest rate hike mode
High government spending continues to be a major problem. In our opinion, any reduction in this spending would give the country’s capital markets cause for optimism. Meanwhile, Brazil is an exception to the global trend of falling interest rates: In September, Brazil’s central bank raised interest rates to curb inflationary pressures. The market expects the Brazilian real to remain stable or appreciate slightly in the near future, partly due to falling US interest rates. We see this as a potential advantage for foreign investors in Brazil.
It is also encouraging to see that progress is being made on Brazil’s long-awaited VAT reform, which could further boost the private sector as efficiency gains from a simpler tax system would favour investment.
Growth in Brazil’s manufacturing and services sectors accelerated in September as output in both sectors increased, indicating strong growth in economic activity. In addition, the Brazilian market is currently trading at valuations that we consider favourable. Improved conditions in Brazil’s manufacturing sector have been driven by a resurgence in production, stronger job creation and a pick-up in sales growth, according to S&P Global. At the end of September, Brazil’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index was surpassed only by India, rising to 53.2 (from 50.4 in August; readings above 50 indicate expansion).
Chart 1: Brazilian Purchasing Managers’ Index
Source: FactSet, Markit Economics
Expectations are also high that Brazil will experience an economic boost in 2027, having won the historic bid to host the FIFA Women’s World Cup – a first not only for Brazil, but for the whole of South America.
Over the near term, we believe investors should stay attuned to the opportunities in Brazil and may find what we consider an attractive entry point into this large and diverse market.
Chart 2: The valuations of Latin American equities look favourable
Attractive valuations compared to industrialised countries, emerging markets and own history
Chart 3: Latin American equities offer high dividends
High dividend yield compared to industrialised countries, emerging markets and own history
From Dina Ting, Head of Global Index Portfolio Management at Franklin Templeton
Welcome to the first monthly edition of the State of Crypto, cutting through the noise and helping guide your investment decisions at the start of every month.
April saw bitcoin’s strongest monthly performance in over a year, rallying 12% to $79,500.
While $78,000 remains a stubborn resistance level, the underlying market structure suggests a fundamental shift: the market’s largest holders are treating this correction as a structural buying opportunity.
BITCOIN IN THE MACRO BACKDROP
• Risk–on rebound: A recovery in tech and AI spilled into crypto, giving BTC the momentum to climb from $69,000.
• Policy and energy: With the Strait of Hormuz closed and energy–driven inflation sticking, markets now price in zero rate cuts for 2026.
• Patient capital: Institutional conviction is high. US spot ETFs absorbed $2.4 billion in April, while corporate treasuries – led by Strategy’s $2.5 billion purchase – are building a massive price floor.
MARKET DYNAMICS TO WATCH
• Flight to quality: Capital is slowly moving up the risk curve. Bitcoin dominance is at its highest since mid–2025 as investors favor blue chips over the DeFi sector, which has been hit by recent protocol exploits.
• Liquidity resilience: Stablecoin supply reached a record $321 billion. Unlike in prior cycles, when capital exited the market during dips, today’s dry powder is staying onchain.
• Miner health: Despite high energy costs, large–scale miners are accumulating BTC, signaling they expect higher prices ahead.
WHAT NOW?
The $74,400 zone has flipped from resistance to support. We are still waiting for a catalyst to clear the macro uncertainty, but the current consolidation looks more like a launchpad than a ceiling. A decisive weekly close above $78,000 would confirm a regime shift and open the path toward $85,000.
Get the full deep–dive: technical charts, an analysis of the ”mythos” AI effect, and our bull/bear scenario mapping for Q2.
IN CASE YOU MISSED IT: 21SHARES IN THE WORLD
Bitcoin ETFs and the $100,000 question
21shares Chief Investment Strategist Adrian Fritz spoke with CoinDesk about the nearly $2 billion in spot bitcoin ETF inflows year-to-date, calling it a sign of structural – not speculative – demand, and flagging $100,000 as a realistic year-end target if geopolitical conditions ease and inflows hold.
The Fed’s divided hold dampens bitcoin’s pivot hopes
Speaking to The Block, 21shares Senior Crypto Research Strategist Matt Mena weighed in on the Fed’s most split decision in over 30 years, arguing that hawkish dissenters threw cold water on the market’s rate-cut expectations heading into the Warsh era.
Warsh inherits a fractured Fed
21shares Head of Macro Stephen Coltman told Axios that Warsh will struggle to build a rate-cut majority at the FOMC so long as core PCE stays above 3%, noting that Wednesday’s dissents sent an early and unambiguous signal of the internal resistance ahead.
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Research Newsletter
Each month the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com
Disclaimer
The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.
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