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ETF inflows put a break on gold price decline
ETF inflows put a break on gold price decline. Energy: Brent would appear to have stabilised at $105 a barrel, and is embarking upon a moderate recovering. The same is true of WTI, which has risen to $98.5 a barrel this morning. When compared with last week’s major losses, though, today’s upturn is modest. For some days, the market focused entirely on ample physical supplies, but they now seem to be paying more attention to the supply-side risks again. The situation in Iraq remains unclear. It is alleged that Kurdish fighters, supported by the Iraqi airforce, have retaken some areas held by the Sunni extremists Islamic State. At the weekend, this faction captured two smaller oilfield and the biggest Iraqi dam. In the light of this news, it is hardly surprising that oil exports from northern Iraq are still at a halt. According to the Iraqi oil ministry, exports from the south of the country amounted to 2.44 million barrels a day in July, slightly more than in June. However, according to shipment details, oil exports still amounted to an average of 2.52 million barrels a day up to 23 July, which points to a sharp dip in the final week of the month. In mid-July, Iraq was still assuming that exports were reaching 2.6 million barrels a day. Libya’s oil output currently amounts to 450,000 barrels a day, compared with 500,000 barrels a day a week ago. With hostilities there continuing, Libyan oil supplies can be expected to shrink even further, even though the oilfields are safe according to the state oil company NOC.
Precious metals: Gold is still trading below the $1,300 mark, apparently supported latterly by ETF inflows: In July, the ETFs tracked by Bloomberg on a monthly basis recorded a net inflow again for the first time since March. The 15.7 tons registered constituted the largest monthly quantity since November 2012, but one swallow doesn’t make a summer. Over the year so far on balance, there has still been an outflow of some 30 tons of gold from ETFs. In view of the headwinds presented by additional demand components, the ETF inflows will probably merely have slowed down the price decline in recent weeks. While the present negative factors remain – a strong US dollar, weak physical demand in Asia, and weak coin sales in the west – we do not envisage any serious price gains. In addition to modest coin sales in the US, Australian coin sales too, for example, dipped sharply month on month in July to 25,100 ounces.
Demand from the automobile industry for platinum and palladium remains robust. There were 16.4 million vehicle sales in the US in July, measured on a seasonally adjusted annual basis. While this was down slightly on June, when the highest figure for almost eight years was recorded, it was nevertheless up 4.5% on a year ago.
CHART OF THE DAY: Diverging development of corn prices in the US and China
Base metals: Indonesia’s trade deficit rose again in June to some $305 million, owing mainly to a drop in commodity exports. The first-half deficit amounted to $1.15 billion on account of the country’s new mineral resources policy introduced in mid-January. This is no doubt one reason for the government’s announcement yesterday that the export tax on ore concentrates would be cut to 0-7.5%. The original tax was on a progressive scale starting at 20%, but the reduced rate applies to mining companies who have made a commitment to build smelting plants in Indonesia, and is linked to construction progress. According to a government authority, the mineral ore export ban and the export tax together have resulted in at least 50 projects for the construction of smelters in Indonesia being launched, with a total value of over $31 billion. They are to be realized in the coming years. Consequently, we could soon see more supply from Indonesia on the global market again, with the situation on the nickel, bauxite and copper markets easing. Copper producer Freeport-McMoRan, which reached an agreement with the Indonesian government just over a week ago, will according to its own information be exporting copper concentrates again as of tomorrow. Since the rise in nickel prices this year in particular was due to the Indonesian export ban, we see scope for correction here in the event of higher exports.
Agriculturals: While corn is trading at a four-year low in Chicago, prices in China are soaring. Corn has risen 10% so far this year on the Dalian spot market to hit a new high. On the futures market, contracts maturing in September are trading at a multi-year high. Some of the country’s major cultivation areas, amounting to 4 million hectares, are suffering a drought. This brings a threat of a lower yield, especially in the central Chinese provinces Henan, Shaanxi and Hubei.
However, forecasts are still predicting a record corn harvest in China. The USDA, for example, raised its forecast in July by 2 million tons to 222 million, which it expects to match consumption. The International Grains Council has not amended its estimate of 220 million tons. Chinese official forecasts too give a figure of 223 million tons, as higher output is expected in the northwest of the country. Even in the event of a lower crop, therefore, China would probably only have to import a little more corn, especially since it has been building up inventories on a generous scale in recent years, and is highly restrictive with imports of genetically modified varieties. While imports have been high by past standards in recent years, in absolute terms they have been low at a maximum 5.2 million tons in 2011/12, as the country is still adhering to a policy of being as self-sufficient as possible. The USDA envisages imports of 3 million tons in 2014/15.
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IncomeShares passed three milestones in August. Assets under management climbed to almost $66 million, cumulative fund flows topped $72 million, and turnover across London and Xetra listings reached over $27 million. Palantir paid the highest annualised distribution yield at 57.11%. The sections below break the numbers down in more detail.
Cumulative fund flows
Fund flows track how much money investors put into or take out of IncomeShares ETPs (exchange-traded products). Positive flows mean more money coming in than going out – a sign of demand for the products.
Flows have risen every month this year. In January, they stood at $13.7 million. By the end of August, they reached $72.4 million. That’s over $8 million of new money added in August alone – the biggest increase since May.
Trading turnover
Turnover is the total dollar value of IncomeShares ETPs bought and sold on the exchanges. Higher turnover means more activity and liquidity for investors.
Turnover reached $27.3 million in August – the highest on record and more than double January’s $13.0 million. London listings (USD and GBP combined) made up $14.2 million, with Xetra listings close behind at $13.1 million. Both exchanges have seen steady increases through 2025, showing rising interest in income options strategies across the board.
Note: Figures use IDC FX rates as of the August month-end to convert GBP and EUR into USD. We apply the same August rates to all prior months to compare turnover on a like-for-like basis.
Assets under management (AUM)
AUM is the total value of assets held across all IncomeShares ETPs. It grows when new investors buy in, or when the underlying assets rise in value.
AUM grew from $13.8 million in January to $65.8 million at the end of August. It was also $8 million more than in July. Steady inflows and consistent income distributions are helping the product range build scale.
Distribution yields
Distribution yields represent the annualised income paid to investors as a percentage of the current NAV (net asset value), based on the latest month’s yield. IncomeShares ETPs aim to generate this income from selling options. Yields change each month depending on strategy performance and market volatility.
Annualised August yields (ranked highest to lowest):
• Palantir Options ETP (PLTY): 57.11%
• Nasdaq 100 Options ETP (QQQY): 46.44%
• Coinbase Options ETP (COIY): 43.60%
• AMD Options ETP (AMDY): 41.43%
• Tesla Options ETP (TSLI): 40.97%
• Broadcom Options ETP (AVGY): 40.96%
• MicroStrategy Options ETP (MSTY): 37.61%
• Alibaba Options ETP (BABY): 35.90%
• S&P 500 Options ETP (SPYY): 32.95%
• NVIDIA Options ETP (NVDI): 28.42%
• Alphabet Options ETP (GOOI): 18.15%
• Magnificent 7 Options ETP (MAGO): 16.87%
• Apple Options ETP (AAPPY): 15.55%
• 20+ Year Treasury Options ETP (TLTY): 12.38%
• Amazon Options ETP (AMZI): 12.00%
• Silver+ Yield Options ETP (SLVY): 11.56%
• Meta Options ETP (METY): 11.32%
• Gold+ Yield Options ETP (GLDI): 6.74%
• Microsoft Options ETP (MSFY): 6.54%
Our Palantir ETP topped the list with an annualised yield of 57.11% for August, up from 30.57% in July. The stock was volatile in August, trading between $142 and $190. That wider range increased option premiums, which boosted the ETP’s yield. The ETP sells put options on Palantir stock and holds shares – the strategy used for all our single stock ETPs and the Magnificent 7 product.
The Nasdaq 100 ETP paid an annualised yield of 46.44% in August, up slightly from 44.52% in July. At the other end, Gold+ and Microsoft stayed below 7%, reflecting relatively calmer conditions in their underlying assets.
The table below shows the annalised distribution yields for all IncomeShares ETPs so far this year. Note that the bottom eight ETPs launched in late June, so they only have yields for July and August.
Key takeaways
• Fund flows climbed to $72.4 million, with August adding more than $8 million.
• Turnover hit a record $27.3 million, split almost evenly between London and Xetra.
• Palantir topped the yield table at 57%, with Nasdaq 100 and Coinbase also paying above 40%.
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