ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis – Declining commodity prices drive a mixture of bargain-hunting and profit-taking

• Bargain hunting sees US$79.7mn into long crude oil ETPs, the highest inflows in five weeks.
• Third consecutive week of long gold ETP outflows.
• Sterling shorts unwind post UK elections.

Bargain hunting sees US$79.7mn into long crude oil ETPs. Crude oil slipped 3% last week as US inventories withdrawals continue to disappoint. Gasoline stocks increased, bucking seasonal trends. IEA data released last week shows that year-to-date OECD stocks have increased 360 kb/d despite OPEC’s efforts to cut back on production. OPEC figures show that the cartel’s production increased in May – a risk we have highlighted for some time. Oil is currently trading in the lower half of the US$40-55/bbl. trading range that the commodity has been stuck in. Bargain-hunting at these low prices drove the highest inflows in five weeks.

Third consecutive week of long gold ETP outflows. Outflows continue with US$27.2mn last week. Expectations for continued rate increases and central bank balance sheet normalisation in the US after a surprisingly hawkish statement from the Federal Reserve last week sent gold prices lower after peaking at US1295/oz on 6th June. However, as we observed in the previous week, geopolitical events can be supportive for the gold price. Gold tends to be the first port of call in the times of investor anxiety. The closure of the border between Saudi Arabia and Qatar, Ex- Director James Comey giving testimony to Senate, UK elections and Greek debt negotiations were all factors creating investor anxiety in previous weeks. Investors with an allocation to gold could find it a valuable event risk hedge. In the absence of shocks, however, we expect gold prices to grind lower, but the downside risk will be contained by the gradual nature of rate increases. Long silver ETPs also saw outflows of US$8.3mn, reversing part of the previous week’s US$14.2mn inflows.

Diversified commodity baskets see US$12.4mn outflows. Following the trend of falling net speculative positioning in commodity futures, we saw the third consecutive week of outflows from diversified commodity baskets. A stronger US dollar following the Fed’s rate move weighed on the commodity complex while oversupply in oil and fears of weak demand in metals haunt the asset class.

Sterling shorts unwind. Positions in short sterling/long US dollar ETPs fell by US$7.0mn as investors took profit on the sharp depreciation in Sterling after the UK general election on 8th June. The outflows remove most of the inflows from the prior week. While no progress has been made in forming a coalition nor strengthening the government’s hand in going into the Brexit negotiations, it appears the bad news is now priced-in. Indeed, with three members of the Bank of England now voting to raise interest rates last week, it appears the UK central bank is also getting more hawkish, which should provide some strength to the currency.

Video Presentation

Nitesh Shah, Director, Commodity Research at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.

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ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
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