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Cryptoassets of the Month: FTM, SOL, and More
Every month, 21Shares research team will present the cryptoassets of the month that increased or dropped in value by more than 15%. With a data-driven approach, we highlight the most important developments and events causing price movements.
Figure 1: 30-Day Performance: Cryptoassets of the Month vs. Traditional Asset Classes
Data Source: 21Shares, CoinMarketCap, and Yahoo Finance, from 31-Dec-2022 to 31-Jan-2023 (Close Price)
Fantom (FTM)
Fantom’s native token FTM rose 169.45% over the past month as efforts concentrated on increasing developer traction. On January 19, Fantom released a decentralized funding system to finance new projects, dubbed the ”Ecosystem Vault,” which will accrue 10% of all transaction fees on the blockchain. Projects can apply for funding by submitting a governance proposal, which has to receive at least 55% approval via an on-chain vote. In the last 30 days, the Fantom blockchain has generated $158.78k in transaction fees, which translates to ~$1.9 million annually. Assuming revenue remains the same, projects building on the Fantom network could receive ~$190k in funding during the coming year.
Solana (SOL)
Solana (SOL) rallied 140.46% in January. In our December issue, after SOL closed the month below $10, we argued that ”despite recent challenges, Solana has retained a loyal base of developers committed to its long-term success.” According to Electric Capital’s Developer Report – of the ecosystems with more than 1,000 monthly active developers as of December 2022 – Solana was the fastest-growing, registering a 74% increase over the previous year. This trend is incredibly bullish for Solana’s ecosystem, as developer engagement is an early and leading indicator of potential value creation. In retrospect, SOL’s capitulation in December 2022 is likely to be remembered similarly to ETH’s $80 moment in December 2018.
Aave (AAVE)
Aave (AAVE) rallied 59.72% over the past month. On January 27, Aave Protocol V3 was deployed on the Ethereum mainnet. Aave V3 offers innovative risk mitigation features like ”Isolation Mode,” improved capital efficiency via ”E-Mode,” and a 25% reduction in transaction costs. Aave V3 was first deployed in March 2022 across six networks, including Polygon, Arbitrum, and Optimism. Regarding ecosystem traction, Lemon – a mobile wallet with more than 1.7 million users in Argentina and Brazil – integrated Aave’s smart contracts on January 24, allowing users to deposit their tokens into the protocol and earn seamlessly on their wallet interface.
Bitcoin (BTC)
Bitcoin traded up 39.84% over the past month in a spot-driven rally that lifted crypto’s total market cap above $1 trillion. BTC dominance rose to 41%, up from ~38% in December and reaching its highest level since July last year. On January 13, BTC broke above the 200-day moving average (MA) for the first time in 381 days. In the previous bear market in 2019, it took BTC 386 days to trade above the 200-day MA, after which it soared by ~165% from ~$4.9k on April 2 to ~$13k on June 26. Coincidentally, BTC’s market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio also broke above the ”1” mark on January 13. The last time this happened was in March 2020, marking the beginning of the previous cycle’s meteoric bull run.
Ethereum (ETH)
Ethereum traded up 32.57% over the past month. ETH’s net issuance since the Merge turned negative for the second time on January 15 (122 days after the switch to PoS), alongside an increase in the amount of ETH burned, a sign that the cryptoasset’s prospects as a deflationary asset depend heavily on network usage. In addition, the amount of ETH deposited for staking surpassed 16 million on January 12. Lido, a liquid staking protocol, had the largest share with ~29% of total staked ETH and almost 120k unique depositors as of January 31. Finally, Ethereum still has the most vibrant developer ecosystem, with more than 5,700 monthly active developers as of December 2022, a ~5x increase from 2018.
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• Global crypto asset adoption rates are significantly higher than previously estimated.
• The data generally suggest that both the US and Europe may be at the cusp of mass retail adoption – a situation often referred to as “Hyperbitcoinization” in the context of Bitcoin.
• Chances are that the growth of adoption will surprise to the upside due to the fact that we are most likely at the inflection point from ”Early Adopters” to ”Early Majority”.
Trump recently made a public statement implying that 50 million Americans already held ”crypto”. The most recent surveys among US consumers seem to support this number.
It is no surprise that cryptoassets have become a major topic during the US presidential election as the parties have become increasingly aware that cryptoasset users could play a significant role at the ballot.
Both Trump and Robert Kennedy Jr. are scheduled to deliver a pro-Bitcoin speech at the upcoming Bitcoin conference in Nashville over the weekend.
It seems as if cryptoasset users are not a small minority anymore that can be ignored.
Here are some recent US bitcoin and crypto adoption surveys for comparison (% of total population in brackets):
• Security.org: 93 mn (28%)
• Unchained: 86 mn (26%)
• Statista: 53.6 mn (16%)
• Morning Consult: 44.2 mn (13%)
• Finder: 38.4 mn (11%)
In general, cryptoasset adoption has been on the rise globally.
A recent global survey among institutional investors conducted by Fidelity even implies that 51% of surveyed institutional investors have already invested into cryptoassets such as Bitcoin.
Another recent consumer survey by Statista implies that approximately every 5th person (21%) worldwide has already invested into cryptoassets.
However, it’s important to highlight that among the top 10 regions with the highest adoption rates, 8 regions are developing countries.
So, cryptoasset adoption rates are even significantly higher among developing countries than in developed countries that often suffer from chronically high inflation rates and weak domestic currencies.
That being said, the data generally suggest that both the US and Europe may be at the cusp of mass retail adoption – a situation often referred to as “Hyperbitcoinization” in the context of Bitcoin.
The reason is that technological adoption in general tends to accelerate at the threshold from the so-called “early adopters” to the “early majority” which is around 16% adoption rate based on the model of technological adoption famously put forth by Rogers (1962).
Global adoption rates are already at 21% while adoption rates in the US and Europe are at around 16% and 14%, respectively. So, there is a strong case for an acceleration of adoption rates in these regions and globally over the coming years.
Recent political developments in the US also imply that Bitcoin and cryptoassets are gradually becoming mainstream.
Trump has recently endorsed domestic Bitcoin mining in the US and both Democrats and Republicans have started accepting crypto payments for campaign financing.
The big success of the spot Bitcoin ETFs this year and the fact that additional types of spot crypto ETFs are being launched marks a significant shift in sentiment among US regulators in this regard.
In short, chances are that the growth of adoption will surprise to the upside due to the fact that we are most-likely at the inflection point from ”Early Adopters” to ”Early Majority”.
Bottom Line
• Global crypto asset adoption rates are significantly higher than previously estimated.
• The data generally suggest that both the US and Europe may be at the cusp of mass retail adoption – a situation often referred to as “Hyperbitcoinization” in the context of Bitcoin.
• Chances are that the growth of adoption will surprise to the upside due to the fact that we are most likely at the inflection point from ”Early Adopters” to ”Early Majority”.
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