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Crypto Market Compass 6 May 2024
Publicerad
12 månader sedanden

• Bitcoin reverses sharply from oversold levels following the dovish FOMC meeting last week
• Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Indicator” has rebounded sharply from very bearish levels and currently signals neutral sentiment again
• Crypto hedge fund’s beta implies that crypto hedge funds have significantly increased their market exposure to Bitcoin from underweight to neutral levels over the past week
Chart of the Week

Performance

Last week, cryptoassets rebounded from very oversold levels as macro sentiment and risk appetite improved following the latest FOMC meeting.
More specifically, the Fed has started tapering its Quantitative Tightening by announcing that the limit of US Treasury bond redemptions will be reduced from 60 bn USD per month to 25 bn USD per month starting in June. The market interpreted this announcement as a signal that the Fed is inching closer towards an eventual monetary policy easing cycle.
The reversal in overall risk appetite was further supported by weak US labour market data that were released last Friday. Non-farm payroll growth came in well below consensus expectations and the US unemployment rate remained at cycle highs.
This increased the probability of looser monetary policy by the Fed which is bullish for cryptoassets.
As a result, Bitcoin rebounded sharply from very oversold levels in crypto sentiment.
We had already indicated that further downside was limited due to the very bearish levels in the Cryptoasset Sentiment Index .
Since then, we saw a very sharp reversal in crypto hedge fund’s beta that implies crypto hedge funds have on aggregate significantly increased their market exposure from underweight to neutral levels over the past week (Chart-of-the-Week).
Besides, there was also a sharp increase in whale BTC balances over the past week as well.
All in all, this implies that institutional investors seem to have bought the recent dip in cryptoassets.
Meanwhile, overall ETP fund flows into cryptoassets still remained relatively weak over the past week. A bright spot were the new Hong Kong spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs that had a combined net inflow of around +224.1 mn USD last week. However, this was not enough to offset negative ETP flows in other jurisdictions, predominantly in the US.

In general, among the top 10 crypto assets, Avalanche, Toncoin, and Dogecoin were the relative outperformers.
However, overall altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin remained relatively low, with only around 45% of our tracked altcoins managing to outperform Bitcoin on a weekly basis.
Sentiment
Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” has rebounded sharply from very oversold levels. The index is currently signalling neutral sentiment again.
At the moment, 8 out of 15 indicators are above their short-term trend.
Last week, there were significant reversals to the upside crypto hedge fund’s beta to Bitcoin and global crypto ETP fund flows.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index signals ”Greed” again as of this morning. It had shortly dropped to “Fear” levels last week.
Performance dispersion among cryptoassets has continued to decline amid the recent reversal in cryptoassets. Overall performance dispersion among cryptoassets remains relatively low.
Altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin was only moderate, with around 45% of our tracked altcoins that have outperformed Bitcoin on a weekly basis. At the same time, there was a slight underperformance of Ethereum vis-à-vis Bitcoin last week.
In general, increasing (decreasing) altcoin outperformance tends to be a sign of increasing (decreasing) risk appetite within cryptoasset markets.
Meanwhile, sentiment in traditional financial markets has not yet rebounded, judging by our own measure of Cross Asset Risk Appetite (CARA).
Fund Flows
Last week, we saw continued net outflows from global crypto ETPs with around -372.4 mn USD (week ending Friday) based on Bloomberg data.
A bright spot were the new Hong Kong spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs that had a combined net inflow of around +224.1 mn USD last week according to data provided by Bloomberg. However, this was not enough to offset negative ETP flows in other jurisdictions, predominantly in the US.
Global Bitcoin ETPs continued to see net outflows of -409.1 mn USD of which -433.0 mn (net) were related to US spot Bitcoin ETFs alone. The newly issued Hong Kong spot Bitcoin ETFs were able to attract +156.2 mn USD in net inflows last week according to data provided by Bloomberg.
The ETC Group Physical Bitcoin ETP (BTCE) also saw net outflows equivalent to -15.2 mn USD last week.
The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) continued to experience net outflows of approximately -277.2 mn USD last week. That being said, last week Friday saw the very first daily net inflow into GBTC since its conversion to an ETF in January of around +63.0 mn USD which is a positive sign.
In contrast to Bitcoin ETPs, Global Ethereum ETPs saw a reversal in ETP flows last week, with net inflows of around +25.2 mn USD. This was mostly due to significant inflows into the newly issued Hong Kong spot Ethereum ETFs that were able to attract +67.9 mn USD last week, according to data provided by Bloomberg.
Meanwhile, the ETC Group Physical Ethereum ETP (ZETH) saw small net outflows (-0.9 mn USD). The ETC Group Ethereum Staking ETP (ET32) had neither share creations nor redemptions (+/- 0 mn USD) last week.
Besides, Altcoin ETPs ex Ethereum AuM’s were mostly stable last week with only minor net inflows of around +0.9 mn USD.
Besides, Thematic & basket crypto ETPs also experienced some net inflows of +10.6 mn USD, based on our calculations. The ETC Group MSCI Digital Assets Select 20 ETP (DA20) did experience neither in- nor outflows last week (+/- 0 mn USD).
Besides, the beta of global crypto hedge funds to Bitcoin over the last 20 trading rebounded sharply to around 0.97. This implies that global crypto hedge funds have significantly increased their market exposure and have currently a neutral exposure to Bitcoin.
On-Chain Data
Bitcoin’s on-chain data have continued to improve over the past week.
Short-term holders of bitcoin generally took losses as we declined below their costs basis at round 58k USD. So, there was a capitulation by short-term investors as the short-term holder spent output profit ratio (STH SOPR) reached the lowest level since March 2023. This tends to be a reliable signal for a short-term tactical bottom and also coincided with a generally very bearish sentiment.
Moreover, the increase in accumulation activity in Bitcoin that we had already observed the week prior has continued last week as well which put a floor below prices. What is more is that accumulation activity has even broadened to include larger wallet cohorts. Both very small and very large wallet cohorts currently seem to increase their wallet balances again judging by our own “average accumulation score”.
The average accumulation score aggregates individual accumulation scores across different wallet cohorts and shows the average balance growth across these different wallet cohorts.
The fact that larger wallet cohorts have started increasing their accumulation activity is also supported by the fact that wallets in excess of 100 BTC have significantly increased their purchases in the short term.
This is also corroborated by the fact that BTC whale net exchange flows have turned negative again over the past week with more outbound than inbound whale transfers from/to exchanges.
That being said, active addresses remain relatively weak and have declined towards year-to-date lows again. However, our own measure of overall Bitcoin network activity which includes active addresses, transaction count, UTXO count and block size remains near all-time highs.
Besides, Bitcoin’s hash rate still remains near all-time highs as miners still remain relatively unaffected by the recent halving of the block subsidy. BTC miners transfers to exchanges remain very low and overall miner balances are currently still moving sideways implying no significant selling by miners.
Overall, capitulation by short-term holders as well as broadening accumulation activity are a positive signal.
Futures, Options & Perpetuals
Last week, futures open interest continued to move sideways in BTC-terms and perpetual BTC futures only experienced a slight increase in open interest.
Despite the most recent price correction last week there were no significant futures long liquidations either. That being said, the BTC perpetual funding rate turned negative last week on Thursday and Friday which indicates oversold positioning and which tends to be a reliable signal for a short-term tactical bottom as well.
The Bitcoin futures basis mostly went sideways last week. It declined to new cycle lows during the latest price correction before reversing to around 9.3% p.a. again.
Bitcoin options’ open interest increased only slightly last week as BTC option traders seem to have increased their exposure to puts relative to calls. This was also evident in a short-term spike in relative put volumes.
Consistent with this observation, the 25-delta BTC 1-month option skew increased to levels last seen in January during the volatile US spot Bitcoin ETF trading launch.
Despite the dip to new lows in price, BTC option implied volatilities have only increased slightly. Implied volatilities of 1-month ATM Bitcoin options are currently at around 56.4% p.a., up from 54% p.a. the week prior.
Bottom Line
• Bitcoin reverses sharply from oversold levels following the dovish FOMC meeting last week
• Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Indicator” has rebounded sharply from very bearish levels and currently signals neutral sentiment again
• Crypto hedge fund’s beta implies that crypto hedge funds have significantly increased their market exposure to Bitcoin from underweight to neutral levels over the past week
To read our Crypto Market Compass in full, please click the button below

This is not investment advice. Capital at risk. Read the full disclaimer
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Disclaimer
The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.
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Amundi S&P Global Consumer Discretionary ESG UCITS ETF DR EUR (D) (WELC ETF) med ISIN IE00061J0RC6, strävar efter att spåra S&P Developed Ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Consumer Discretionary index. Det S&P-utvecklade ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Consumer Discretionary-indexet spårar stora och medelstora företag från den diskretionära konsumentsektorn. ESG-kriterier (miljö, social och bolagsstyrning) beaktas vid valet av värdepapper.
Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,18% p.a.. Amundi S&P Global Consumer Discretionary ESG UCITS ETF DR EUR (D) är den billigaste ETF som följer S&P Developed Ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Consumer Discretionary index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom fullständig replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i ETFen delas ut till investerarna (Årligen).
Amundi S&P Global Consumer Discretionary ESG UCITS ETF DR EUR (D) är en mycket liten ETF med 5 miljoner euro förvaltade tillgångar. Denna ETF lanserades den 20 september 2022 och har sin hemvist i Irland.
Investeringsmål
AMUNDI S&P GLOBAL CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY ESG UCITS ETF DR – EUR (D) försöker replikera, så nära som möjligt, resultatet för S&P Developed Ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Consumer Discretionary Index (Netto Total Return Index). Denna ETF har exponering mot stora och medelstora företag i utvecklade länder. Den innehåller uteslutningskriterier för tobak, kontroversiella vapen, civila och militära handeldvapen, termiskt kol, olja och gas (inkl. Arctic Oil & Gas), oljesand, skiffergas. Den är också utformad för att välja ut och omvikta företag för att tillsammans förbättra hållbarhet och ESG-profiler, uppfylla miljömål och minska koldioxidavtrycket.
Handla WELC ETF
Amundi S&P Global Consumer Discretionary ESG UCITS ETF DR EUR (D) (WELC ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra.
Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel Nordnet, SAVR, DEGIRO och Avanza.
Börsnoteringar
Största innehav
Denna fond använder fysisk replikering för att spåra indexets prestanda.
Namn | Valuta | Vikt % | Sektor |
AMAZON.COM INC | USD | 18.89 % | Sällanköpsvaror |
TESLA INC | USD | 13.29 % | Sällanköpsvaror |
HOME DEPOT INC | USD | 5.75 % | Sällanköpsvaror |
LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUI | EUR | 5.44 % | Sällanköpsvaror |
TOYOTA MOTOR CORP | JPY | 4.58 % | Sällanköpsvaror |
MCDONALD S CORP COM NPV | USD | 2.63 % | Sällanköpsvaror |
LOWE S COS INC COM US 0.50 | USD | 2.38 % | Sällanköpsvaror |
SONY GROUP CORP (JT) | JPY | 2.25 % | Sällanköpsvaror |
BOOKING HOLDINGS INC | USD | 2.02 % | Sällanköpsvaror |
TJX COMPANIES INC | USD | 1.89 % | Sällanköpsvaror |
Innehav kan komma att förändras

To understand Celestia’s value and its role in the ecosystem, it’s helpful to first understand how traditional blockchain systems are structured.
Most blockchains, like Ethereum or Bitcoin, are monolithic which means they perform all major functions (consensus, data availability, and execution) on a single layer. This design ensures security but according to new modular networks, limits scalability and flexibility.
The modular blockchain thesis, which Celestia is leading, proposes separation of layers and respective responsibilities in the network. Instead of having one network and its validators perform all of its functions, it may be better to have specialized layers:
• Consensus Layer: Ensures that all nodes agree on the order of transactions.
• Data Availability Layer: Ensures transaction data is accessible to all participants.
• Execution Layer: Processes the actual logic and computation of smart contracts.
By unbundling these components, developers can build more efficient, flexible systems that scale far beyond what monolithic blockchains can support. Not all applications need similar levels of security and not all applications need to scale up to millions of transactions. Additionally, one application might be scaling beyond the capabilities of its host network, severely effecting the available data throughput of other applications. This limits developers to the monolithic technology stack provided by a virtual machine such as Ethereum’ EVM.
The Issue of Data Availability
One of the most misunderstood yet crucial components of any blockchain is data availability. In simple terms, it ensures that the data behind each block is fully accessible and verifiable by all participants in the network. Another way to describe it is as the confidence a user can have that the data required to verify a block is really available to all network participants. Data availability is therefore important to all stakeholders of the blockchain ecosystem.
If a block producer withholds data, then nodes cannot verify the block, which leads to potential censorship or fraud.
Traditionally, a blockchain network can offer data availability with the following mechanisms:
• Full Replication: Every node stores the entire blockchain and verifies all data. Secure but not quite scalable.
• Sharding: Breaks the blockchain into smaller pieces (shards), spreading data across nodes. Scalable but highly complex to implement.
• Committee-Based Models: Small groups of nodes are trusted to verify data availability. Efficient, but less decentralized.
Celestia takes a completely different approach using a novel method called Data Availability Sampling (DAS). Instead of requiring every node to download all data, DAS allows lightweight nodes to randomly sample small chunks of a block. If enough pieces are retrievable, the node can confidently assume the full block is available. This slashes resource requirements while maintaining security and decentralization.
Why Data Availability Matters
Data availability might sound like a nerdy technical term, but it’s one of the most important yet one of less invisible parts of how blockchains work.
Let’s say you’re using a crypto app to trade tokens, store art, or move money. Every time you do something, that action (also referred to as a transaction) needs to be recorded and shared with the rest of the network so everyone agrees it happened. If that data disappears or can’t be verified, the whole system becomes untrustworthy. You might think your tokens moved but if no one else can see that record or a different version of that record, it’s as if it never happened.
Here’s a real-life parallel: imagine a public scoreboard at a sports game. If the scorekeeper shows the score to only a few people and then hides the board, how can the rest of the crowd trust the result? Everyone needs to see the score to believe it’s fair. In crypto, data availability is what makes sure the scoreboard is always visible to all participants at any time.
How DAS Changes the Game
Traditionally, ensuring data availability meant every node had to download and verify the entire block of data for any purpose related to particular data inside the block, like reading a whole newspaper just to check one article. Ethereum and most competing monolithic layer-1’s operate this way. It works, but it’s expensive, slow, and becomes less practical as blockchains scale in terms of data throughput required by its Dapps therefore limiting the types of applications that developers can build.
Celestia’s Data Availability Sampling (DAS) is a breakthrough that lets even simple devices (like smartphones) verify that a block’s data is available—by checking just a few random pieces. If enough pieces are found and correct, the network can be confident the full block is truly there and correct.
This innovation means:
• Light clients can safely participate in the network without downloading everything.
• Rollups and app-chains can post their data to Celestia with minimal overhead.
• Scalability skyrockets without sacrificing decentralization.
Celestia’s Role in Scaling Applications
Celestia is the first blockchain designed specifically to be a modular data availability layer. That means it doesn’t execute smart contracts or handle transactions directly, instead, it provides a foundation for others to build new networks, also referred to as rollups.
Developers can launch rollups or full execution environments, and use Celestia to handle the consensus and data availability side. This unlocks several key benefits:
• Massive scalability: Apps can scale independently from each other.
• Customization: Developers choose their own virtual machines, consensus mechanism and execution logic.
• Decentralization: Thanks to DAS, even small devices can validate the system.
This approach flips the script on how we think about launching and scaling blockchains. Instead of competing for space on a monolithic chain, apps get their own chains, backed by Celestia’s secure and scalable data availability layer while giving developers full stack control over their applications.
Celestia Enables Scalability and Offers Full-Stack Control
Using the restaurant example from Sui vs Aptos. Imagine a big, busy restaurant where the chefs, waiters, and cashiers all work in the same small kitchen. It gets crowded, orders take forever, and sometimes things go wrong while the backlog of orders keeps growing. That’s how traditional blockchains work, doing everything in one place.
Now imagine if the restaurant separated the jobs: the chefs cook in a big kitchen, waiters serve from a clean dining area, and the cashiers handle payments at the front desk. Everything runs smoother, faster, and the restaurant can grow in a environment that is less prone to congestion. That is what Celestia is doing for blockchains. Let’s say a small specialty restaurant opens up next door, leveraging Celestia’s register and order management system. That new restaurant can fully focus on delivering the best food and experience to customers, knowing that Celestia’s technology won’t be the limiting factor when scaling up their kitchen. The modularity that Celestia’s restaurant offers is allowing a lot of small scale restaurants to exist without the overhead of individual administrative work. It goes even a step further, Celestia allows you to just use it register while letting smaller restaurants pick their own kitchen (execution environment) and order management system (consensus layer).
In conclusion, Celestia is challenging the believe that blockchains should always be monolithic and blockchains need to offer the same technology stack to all developers on its chain. It is a significant leap forward in the crypto ecosystem and opens possibilities that were previously not feasible.
Diversify Crypto Exposure to Modular Blockchain Technology with the VanEck Celestia ETN
Key features of the VanEck Celestia ETN
• Celestia enables secure scaling of blockchain applications with modular technology.
• Fully-collateralized by TIA in cold-storage.
• Total return of TIA: Tracks the MarketVector™ Celestia VWAP Close Index (MVTIAV).
Why VanEck Crypto ETNs? Here’s why:
• With nearly 70 years in asset management and a strong track record in crypto, we bring deep industry knowledge and proven reliability.
• We combine traditional financial strengths with cutting-edge crypto innovation, backed by a CEO who truly believes in crypto’s future.
• We ensure clarity in our product structures and avoid high-risk or opaque practices, with assets fully backed by cryptocurrency in secure cold storage.
• Our assets are secured by a licensed European bank in Liechtenstein, providing top-tier compliance and security.
• We use the safest institutional custody setup available, prioritizing your security over cost savings.
Crypto is an asset class with high potential returns but investing in digital assets comes with great risk, why choose products that potentially introduce even more risks? Choose VanEck for a secure, transparent, and expertly managed crypto investment experience.
Main Risk Factors:
Investors should note that there is no direct ownership for the crypto assets, but a claim against Issuer to receive such assets.
• Complexity risk: The complexity of the project and its technological concepts make it challenging to assess its viability and valuation.
• Adoption risk: Celestia introduces additional adoption risk as it is uncertain if the concept of modular blockchains will succeed.
• Technology risk: Celestia introduces additional technology risk due to the technology being less mature and therefore could be more prone to bugs and exploits.
• Regulatory Risk: market disruptions and governmental interventions may make digital assets illegal.
• Risk of Losses and Volatility: The trading prices of many digital assets have experienced extreme volatility in recent periods and may continue to do so. There is a risk of total loss as no guarantee can be made regarding custody due to hacking risk, counterparty risk and market risk.
• Other risks specific to this ETN’s Digital Assets can also be found on the VanEck Crypto Academy.
This is not financial research but the opinion of the author of the article. We publish this information to inform and educate about recent market developments and technological updates, not to give any recommendation for certain products or projects. The selection of articles should therefore not be understood as financial advice or recommendation for any specific product and/or digital asset. We may occasionally include analysis of past market, network performance expectations and/or on-chain performance. Historical performance is not indicative for future returns.
IMPORTANT INFORMATION
For informational and advertising purposes only.
This information originates from VanEck (Europe) GmbH, Kreuznacher Strasse 30, 60486 Frankfurt am Main, Deutschland and VanEck Switzerland AG, Genferstrasse 21, 8002 Zurich, Switzerland.
It is intended only to provide general and preliminary information to investors and shall not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice. VanEck (Europe) GmbH and its associated and affiliated companies (together “VanEck”) assume no liability with regards to any investment, divestment or retention decision taken by the investor on the basis of this information. Views and opinions expressed are current as of the date of this information and are subject to change with market conditions. Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts and other forward looking statements, which do not reflect actual results. VanEck makes no representation or warranty, express or implied regarding the advisability of investing in securities or digital assets generally or in the product mentioned in this information (the “Product”) or the ability of the underlying Index to track the performance of the relevant digital assets market.
Investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of principal up to the entire invested amount and the extreme volatility that ETNs experience. You must read the prospectus and KID before investing, in order to fully understand the potential risks and rewards associated with the decision to invest in the Product. The approved Prospectus is available at www.vaneck.com. Please note that the approval of the prospectus should not be understood as an endorsement of the Products offered or admitted to trading on a regulated market.
The underlying Index is the exclusive property of MarketVector GmbH, which has contracted with CC Data Limited to maintain and calculate the Index. CC Data Limited uses its best efforts to ensure that the Index is calculated correctly. Irrespective of its obligations towards the MarketVector GmbH, CC Data Limited has no obligation to point out errors in the Index to third parties.
Investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of principal up to the entire invested amount and the extreme volatility that ETNs experience. You must read the prospectus and KID before investing, in order to fully understand the potential risks and rewards associated with the decision to invest in the Product. The approved Prospectus is available at www.vaneck.com. Please note that the approval of the prospectus should not be understood as an endorsement of the Products offered or admitted to trading on a regulated market.
Performance quoted represents past performance, which is no guarantee of future results and which may be lower or higher than current performance.
Current performance may be lower or higher than average annual returns shown. Performance shows 12 month performance to the most recent Quarter end for each of the last 5yrs where available. E.g. ’1st year’ shows the most recent of these 12-month periods and ’2nd year’ shows the previous 12 month period and so on. Performance data is displayed in Base Currency terms, with net income reinvested, net of fees. Brokerage or transaction fees will apply. Investment return and the principal value of an investment will fluctuate. Notes may be worth more or less than their original cost when redeemed.
Index returns are not ETN returns and do not reflect any management fees or brokerage expenses. An index’s performance is not illustrative of the ETN’s performance. Investors cannot invest directly in the Index. Indices are not securities in which investments can be made.No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of VanEck.
© VanEck (Europe) GmbH / © VanEck Switzerland AG

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