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Crypto Market Compass 10 June 2024

Publicerad

2 år sedan

den

10 juni, 2024

Redaktionen

• Last week, cryptoassets outperformed traditional assets due to a reacceleration in US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows

• Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Indicator” continues to fluctuate around neutral levels of sentiment

• US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw their highest weekly net inflow since mid-March and have seen 20 consecutive trading days of positive net inflows so far

Chart of the Week

Performance

Last week, cryptoassets outperformed traditional assets once again supported by a renewed acceleration in global crypto ETP net inflows and US spot Bitcoin ETF net inflows in particular.

More specifically, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw their highest weekly net inflow since mid-March (Chart-of-the-Week). Weekly crypto ETP net inflows across all types of cryptoassets surpassed 2 bn USD last week, of which net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs accounted for ~80.5% alone. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen 20 consecutive trading days of positive net inflows so far.

It seems as if risk appetite is returning to the crypto markets, especially after the ECB and Bank of Canada both announced to cut their key interest rates last week. These developments mark a significant shift in major central banks’ monetary policy as these are the first interest rate cuts since 2019 (ECB) and 2020 (Bank of Canada), respectively.

The macro liquidity tide is obviously turning already, which we have also analysed in our latest monthly report here.

However, the net implications for Bitcoin and cryptoassets of this reversal in global monetary policy are still somewhat mixed as these changes also signal that economic data are worsening significantly and global growth still seems to be the most dominant macro factor for Bitcoin at the moment based on our analyses.

In this context, the latest non-farm payrolls print that came in way above expectations seems to be inconsistent with other US employment data that continue to signal worsening labour market conditions.

That being said, over the medium- to long-term, monetary policy easing will provide a significant tailwind for Bitcoin and cryptoassets, especially in light of the latest Bitcoin Halving that will probably affect performances positively from summer onwards.

Increasing spot supply scarcity is generally visible for both Bitcoin and Ethereum as on-exchange balances continue to hit multi-year lows.

So, while the growth of fiat liquidity supply is likely to accelerate over the next 12 months, the illiquidity of supply of major cryptoassets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum will also worsen.

This combination of fiat demand expansion and cryptoasseet supply tightening is bound to be very positive for cryptoassets going forward.

In general, among the top 10 crypto assets, BNB, Toncoin, and Bitcoin were the relative outperformers.

Overall, altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin has declined significantly compared to the prior week, with only around 15% of our tracked altcoins managing to outperform Bitcoin on a weekly basis. This is consistent with the fact that Bitcoin outperformed Ethereum by almost 500 bps last week, which is generally a sentiment gauge for the overall altcoin market.

Sentiment

Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” continues to fluctuate around neutral levels of sentiment.

At the moment, 5 out of 15 indicators are above their short-term trend.

Last week, there were significant reversals to the upside in BTC exchange inflows and BTC options put-call volume ratios.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index signals ”Greed” as of this morning.

Performance dispersion among cryptoassets still remains very low. Most altcoins are still trading in line with Bitcoin.

Altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin has declined significantly compared to the week prior, with only around 15% of our tracked altcoins outperforming Bitcoin on a weekly basis, which is consistent with the fact that Bitcoin outperformed Ethereum last week.

In general, increasing (decreasing) altcoin outperformance tends to be a sign of increasing (decreasing) risk appetite within cryptoasset markets and the latest altcoin underperformance could signal low appetite for risk at the moment.

Meanwhile, sentiment in traditional financial markets rebounded to the upside from its recent lows, judging by our own measure of Cross Asset Risk Appetite (CARA).

Fund Flows

Last week, we saw very positive net inflows into global crypto ETPs of around +2,270.4 mn USD which was the highest amount of weekly net inflows since mid-March.

Global Bitcoin ETPs saw net inflows of +2,189.0 mn USD last week, of which +1,828.9 mn USD (net) were related to US spot Bitcoin ETFs alone. US spot
Bitcoin ETFs have seen 20 consecutive trading days of positive net inflows so far.

Flows into Hong Kong spot Bitcoin ETFs were also decent, with net inflows of around +260.6 mn USD, according to data provided by Bloomberg.

The ETC Group Physical Bitcoin ETP (BTCE) saw minor net outflows equivalent to -5.3 mn USD while the ETC Group Core Bitcoin ETP (BTC1) saw no net flows (+/- 0 mn USD) last week.

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) continued to see minor net outflows with approximately -31.1 mn USD last week, while other major US spot Bitcoin ETFs continued to attract more capital.

Global Ethereum ETPs saw accelerating net inflows last week, with net inflows of around +80.0 mn USD.

Furthermore, the ETC Group Physical Ethereum ETP (ZETH) saw another week of net inflows of +1.5 mn USD last week. The ETC Group Ethereum Staking ETP (ET32) saw neither in- nor outflows last week (+/- 0 mn USD).

Besides, Altcoin ETPs ex Ethereum also experienced some minor net inflows of around +17.8 mn USD last week.

Besides, Thematic & basket crypto ETPs continue to see minor net outflows of -7.5 mn USD, based on our calculations. The ETC Group MSCI Digital Assets Select 20 ETP (DA20) saw neither in- nor outflows last week (+/- 0 mn USD).

Meanwhile, global crypto hedge funds continue to decrease their market exposure to Bitcoin. The beta of global crypto hedge funds’ performance has declined to 0.73 over the past 20 trading days.

On-Chain Data

Looking at core on-chain data for Bitcoin, we can make the following observations.
Active addresses still hover near year-to-lows as transaction fees remain relatively high. There was also a spike in mean transaction fees last week on Friday to the highest level since the Halving event on the 20th of April. The mean transaction fee reached 83.7 USD that day.

One of the reasons is that the overall number of transactions and also the transaction rate (transactions/second) have gradually increased over the past weeks which has resulted in an increase in the mempool of unconfirmed transactions.

This does not seem to be inscription-related, as this share has remained below 10% of overall transaction count.

The Bitcoin hash rate also continued to be relatively high and we even saw a slight increase in network hash rate compared to the prior week. In this context, there are still no signs of “miner capitulation” in light of the recent reduction of mining revenues due to the Halving. For instance, aggregate BTC miner balances have moved sideways and we haven’t seen significant miner transfers to exchanges either.

Looking at exchange activity, one can observe say that exchange balances continue to decline to fresh multi-year lows. For instance, aggregate BTC exchange balances have touched the lowest level since March 2018 and aggregate ETH exchange balances touched the lowest level since July 2016 last week.

Bitcoin exchanges saw around -21.7k BTC in net withdrawals over the past 7 days and whales have continued to send bitcoins of exchange as well. Whales are defined as network entities that control at least 1,000 BTC.

However, net buying minus selling volumes on exchanges have been negative over the past week, despite significant net inflows into spot US Bitcoin ETFs. This implies that there is significant selling pressure on spot exchanges that is countering current buying demand.

This is probably one of the main reasons why bitcoin has not reclaimed new all-time highs despite reaccelerating US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows.

Futures, Options & Perpetuals

Last week, BTC futures open interest increased significantly and reached the highest level since January 2023 in BTC-terms. Perpetual open interest also reached the highest level since December 2023 in BTC-terms. The significant increase futures open interest was only partially attributed to an increase in CME futures open interest that accounted for less than half of this increase. However, the CME data point to a significant increase in net short open interest by non-commercials.

This is probably due to the fact that the Bitcoin futures basis continued to creep upwards and has reached a 2-months high of around 14.2% p.a. This has probably attracted more basis trades, which has resulted in the abovementioned increase in short open interest. The basis trade consists of a delta-neutral long and short position in Bitcoin.

Meanwhile, perpetual funding rates continued to be relatively elevated, signalling decent demand for long perpetual contracts.

Bitcoin options’ open interest also increased significantly last week. The decline in relative put-call open interest ratio implies that this increase was mostly driven by an increase in call open interest on a net basis. A call option gives the holder the right to buy the underlying at a specific price in the future. Relative put-call volume ratios declined throughout the week.

The decline in the 25-delta BTC 1-month option skew also corroborates the view that there was increased demand for calls relative to puts.

BTC option implied volatilities also continued to decrease last week. Implied volatilities of 1-month ATM Bitcoin options are currently at around 49.8% p.a.

Bottom Line

• Last week, cryptoassets outperformed traditional assets due to a reacceleration in US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows

• Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Indicator” continues to fluctuate around neutral levels of sentiment

• US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw their highest weekly net inflow since mid-March and have seen 20 consecutive trading days of positive net inflows so far

To read our Crypto Market Compass in full, please click the button below:

This is not investment advice. Capital at risk. Read the full disclaimer

Liknande ämnen:BTC1 BTCE DA20 ET32 ETC Group ZETH

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Schroders noterar aktiv USA-ETF på Xetra

Publicerad

57 minuter sedan

den

29 april, 2026

Redaktionen

iShares Europe Focus UCITS ETFer investerar i europeiska företag och möjliggör anpassning efter geografisk intäktskälla. Investeringsstrategin skiljer mellan företag som genererar minst 50 procent av sina intäkter i Europa och de som huvudsakligen fokuserar på icke-europeiska marknader.

Schroder US Equity Active UCITS ETF förvaltas aktivt och investerar i nordamerikanska aktier. Investeringsstrategin fokuserar på företag med tydliga värde- och/eller kvalitetsegenskaper och riktar sig till undervärderade företag med starka marknadspositioner samt företag som uppvisar stabila intäkter och robusta balansräkningar.

Xtrackers II Global Government Bond UCITS ETF ger exponering mot investment grade-statsobligationer från utvecklade länder, där USA, Japan, Frankrike och Tyskland representerar de största landsviktningarna.

Namn	ISIN Kortnamn	Utdelningspolicy Avgift
iShares Europe Domestic Focus UCITS ETF EUR (Acc)	IE000P2CI9P3 DOME (EUR)	Ackumulerande 0,25%
iShares Europe Foreign Focus UCITS ETF EUR (Acc)	IE00078SFIQ6 EUFG (EUR)	Ackumulerande 0,25%
Schroder US Equity Active UCITS ETF ACC USD	IE0003OZJ573 SEIU (EUR)	Ackumulerande 0,20%
Xtrackers II Global Government Bond UCITS ETF 4D	LU3284391318 XGB4 (EUR)	Utdelande 0,20%

Produktutbudet inom Deutsche Börses ETF- och ETP-segment omfattar för närvarande totalt 2 808 ETFer, 204 ETCer och 329 ETNer. Med detta urval och en genomsnittlig månatlig handelsvolym på cirka 28,6 miljarder euro är Deutsche Börse Xetra den ledande handelsplatsen för ETFer och ETPer i Europa.

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Virtune noterar Virtune Sui ETP på Nasdaq Stockholm

Publicerad

2 timmar sedan

den

29 april, 2026

Redaktionen

Virtune, en svensk reglerad kapitalförvaltare av kryptotillgångar, meddelar noteringen av Virtune Sui ETP på Nasdaq Stockholm, den största börsen i Norden.

Virtune är en svensk kapitalförvaltare och emittent av fysiskt backade börshandlade produkter (ETPer) inom krypto. Sedan lanseringen 2023 har Virtune fått förtroende av mer än 160 000 investerare och har idag cirka 300 miljoner USD i förvaltat kapital (AUM), vilket stärker bolagets position som en av Europas ledande emittenter av reglerade krypto-ETPer. Bolaget har över 90% marknadsandel för krypto-ETNer på Nasdaq Nordics.

Om Virtune Sui ETP

Virtune Sui ETP är en fysiskt backad börshandlad produkt som är utformad för att erbjuda investerare ett säkert och kostnadseffektivt sätt att få exponering mot Sui. Detta möjliggörs genom en transparent och fysiskt backad struktur med institutionell säkerhetsnivå.

Viktig information om Virtune Sui ETP

• 1:1 exponering mot SUI

• 100% fysiskt uppbackad av SUI

• 0,95% årlig förvaltningsavgift

Virtune Sui ETP

• Fullständigt namn: Virtune Sui ETP

• Kortnamn: Virtune Sui

• Ticker: VIRSUI

• Handelsvaluta: SEK

• Första handelsdag: Tisdagen den 28 april 2026

• ISIN: SE0025159833

Om Sui

Sui (SUI) är en blockkedja av nästa generation som är utformad för att hantera höga transaktionsvolymer med nästan omedelbar slutgiltighet och låga avgifter. Drivs av programmeringsspråket Move och en innovativ objektcentrerad datamodell, vilket gör det möjligt för utvecklare att skapa skalbara applikationer såsom spel, DeFi och NFT:er samtidigt som en sömlös användarupplevelse levereras.

Christopher Kock, VD för Virtune:
“Vi är mycket glada över att fortsätta expandera vårt produkterbjudande på vår hemmamarknad, Nasdaq Stockholm. Idag noterar vi Virtune Sui ETP, en produkt som har varit efterlängtad av investerare runt om i Norden. ETP:n är nu tillgänglig via banker och nätmäklare i Norden, handlas i SEK och är 100% fysiskt backad av SUI.”

Kryptoinvesteringar är förknippat med hög risk. Virtune ger inte investeringsråd. Investeringar görs på egen risk. Värdepapper kan öka eller minska i värde, det finns ingen garanti att man får tillbaka investerat kapital. Läs prospekt, KID, villkor på www.virtune.com.

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Invesco: Gold signals a shifting world order without a new leader

Publicerad

21 timmar sedan

den

28 april, 2026

Redaktionen

The United States remains economically and financially dominant, but beneath the surface doubts are growing about how sustainable that position really is. According to Benjamin Jones, head of research at Invesco, the continued rise in gold suggests that investors are preparing for a world in which the balance of power is shifting, without any clear alternative leader emerging.

The US twin deficits

The joint, pre-2025 rally in US risk assets and the dollar sits uneasily with concerns over US fiscal and current-account deficits, a deteriorating Net International Investment Position (NIIP), reindustrialisation goals, and the secular rise in gold, explains Jones.

“In our view, the long-running rally in gold alongside high returns and rising concentration in dollar assets reflects two forces: a faltering world order and the economics of heavy US fiscal imbalances, rising external obligations, and persistent deficits; but also, the unique success of US firms in driving GDP growth, earnings and innovation. Ironically, that strength may itself increase the risk of a financial, currency or balance-of-payments shock in a geopolitical crisis.”

According to Jones, the sharp drop in the US NIIP has come as foreign claims outstrip US claims abroad. “This was driven less by foreign Treasury holdings, which have stabilised, and more by inflows into private-sector assets, especially equities, as investors embraced “US Exceptionalism” as shorthand for superior growth and financial performance relative to peers such as Western Europe and Japan. The result has been major inflows into US equities, corporate debt and private markets.”

Even though much of the increase in exposure has been to risk assets rather than bonds, large outflows could still threaten fiscal and financial stability, says Jones. “For now, trade barriers and efforts to weaken the dollar to promote reindustrialisation have prompted rebalancing away from US stocks, bonds and the dollar. Amid geopolitical tensions, weaker fiscal and external positions, and renewed protectionism and unpredictability, official investors and private investors have sharply increased gold purchases as a store of value.”

Heavy gold flow in financial markets

US financial leadership persists despite geoeconomic rebalancing toward rivals, Jones continues. “The US still leads in market capitalisation, turnover and liquidity, while the Treasury market remains the largest and deepest pool of debt issuance. Dollar liquidity is so high that trades <<between other currencies are often executed through the dollar. Global portfolio concentration in the US has also been reinforced by inflows into benchmarked funds and passive trackers. The core driver remains US exceptionalism. Rich valuations and concentration in US tech may suggest a bubble, yet US firms have continued to deliver innovation, market share, revenue and earnings growth.”

According to Jones, rivals remain less compelling from a market perspective. “Europe has lagged the US since the financial crisis, while China has matched or surpassed US innovation but, until recently, delivered weaker market returns due to domestic de-risking policies.”

The US share of official reserves has declined somewhat, while the euro and most other currencies have levelled off, Jones continues. “Gold’s share has risen sharply since the start of the war in Ukraine in 2022, suggesting the TINA problem persists: there is no real alternative to the dollar other than gold itself. Central banks increasingly prefer the safety of gold, the liability of no government.”

Future: Geopolitical, economic, technological and military competition
An open world economy helped many countries narrow productivity gaps with the US, but leadership is no longer aligned across power domains. “Economically, the world is increasingly tripolar, centred on the US, China and the eurozone. Militarily, power is concentrated in the US, China and Russia. Technologically, the US and China are at or near parity, while others lag. Financially, however, the US still has no peer,” notes Jones.

He continues: “Conventional economic, military and technological competition therefore still matters, even in a nuclear world. US concerns about overextension are sharpened by China’s vast industrial capacity, with output and shipbuilding far exceeding that of the US. Recent wars have shown that modern conflict still depends on industrial mobilisation for technology, drones and ammunition. This helps explain the US push for reindustrialisation.”

At the same time, US fiscal and external obligations create vulnerabilities if confidence were shaken by a future crisis, conflict or major shock. Jones concludes: “Washington is also retreating from parts of the multilateral order while seeking to reshape global trade more in its favour, reinforcing perceptions of unilateralism. Gold may be signaling an incomplete global reordering: not a clear new polarity, but an “unipolar” world in which leadership shifts by issue, region and moment. The US and the dollar would still likely remain first among equals, supported by deep financial markets, technological dynamism and strategic advantages, even as rival powers continue to rise.”

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