• Last week, cryptoassets outperformed traditional assets due to a reacceleration in US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows
• Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Indicator” continues to fluctuate around neutral levels of sentiment
• US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw their highest weekly net inflow since mid-March and have seen 20 consecutive trading days of positive net inflows so far
Chart of the Week
Performance
Last week, cryptoassets outperformed traditional assets once again supported by a renewed acceleration in global crypto ETP net inflows and US spot Bitcoin ETF net inflows in particular.
More specifically, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw their highest weekly net inflow since mid-March (Chart-of-the-Week). Weekly crypto ETP net inflows across all types of cryptoassets surpassed 2 bn USD last week, of which net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs accounted for ~80.5% alone. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen 20 consecutive trading days of positive net inflows so far.
It seems as if risk appetite is returning to the crypto markets, especially after the ECB and Bank of Canada both announced to cut their key interest rates last week. These developments mark a significant shift in major central banks’ monetary policy as these are the first interest rate cuts since 2019 (ECB) and 2020 (Bank of Canada), respectively.
The macro liquidity tide is obviously turning already, which we have also analysed in our latest monthly report here.
However, the net implications for Bitcoin and cryptoassets of this reversal in global monetary policy are still somewhat mixed as these changes also signal that economic data are worsening significantly and global growth still seems to be the most dominant macro factor for Bitcoin at the moment based on our analyses.
In this context, the latest non-farm payrolls print that came in way above expectations seems to be inconsistent with other US employment data that continue to signal worsening labour market conditions.
That being said, over the medium- to long-term, monetary policy easing will provide a significant tailwind for Bitcoin and cryptoassets, especially in light of the latest Bitcoin Halving that will probably affect performances positively from summer onwards.
Increasing spot supply scarcity is generally visible for both Bitcoin and Ethereum as on-exchange balances continue to hit multi-year lows.
So, while the growth of fiat liquidity supply is likely to accelerate over the next 12 months, the illiquidity of supply of major cryptoassets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum will also worsen.
This combination of fiat demand expansion and cryptoasseet supply tightening is bound to be very positive for cryptoassets going forward.
In general, among the top 10 crypto assets, BNB, Toncoin, and Bitcoin were the relative outperformers.
Overall, altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin has declined significantly compared to the prior week, with only around 15% of our tracked altcoins managing to outperform Bitcoin on a weekly basis. This is consistent with the fact that Bitcoin outperformed Ethereum by almost 500 bps last week, which is generally a sentiment gauge for the overall altcoin market.
Sentiment
Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” continues to fluctuate around neutral levels of sentiment.
At the moment, 5 out of 15 indicators are above their short-term trend.
Last week, there were significant reversals to the upside in BTC exchange inflows and BTC options put-call volume ratios.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index signals ”Greed” as of this morning.
Performance dispersion among cryptoassets still remains very low. Most altcoins are still trading in line with Bitcoin.
Altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin has declined significantly compared to the week prior, with only around 15% of our tracked altcoins outperforming Bitcoin on a weekly basis, which is consistent with the fact that Bitcoin outperformed Ethereum last week.
In general, increasing (decreasing) altcoin outperformance tends to be a sign of increasing (decreasing) risk appetite within cryptoasset markets and the latest altcoin underperformance could signal low appetite for risk at the moment.
Meanwhile, sentiment in traditional financial markets rebounded to the upside from its recent lows, judging by our own measure of Cross Asset Risk Appetite (CARA).
Fund Flows
Last week, we saw very positive net inflows into global crypto ETPs of around +2,270.4 mn USD which was the highest amount of weekly net inflows since mid-March.
Global Bitcoin ETPs saw net inflows of +2,189.0 mn USD last week, of which +1,828.9 mn USD (net) were related to US spot Bitcoin ETFs alone. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen 20 consecutive trading days of positive net inflows so far.
Flows into Hong Kong spot Bitcoin ETFs were also decent, with net inflows of around +260.6 mn USD, according to data provided by Bloomberg.
The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) continued to see minor net outflows with approximately -31.1 mn USD last week, while other major US spot Bitcoin ETFs continued to attract more capital.
Global Ethereum ETPs saw accelerating net inflows last week, with net inflows of around +80.0 mn USD.
Besides, Altcoin ETPs ex Ethereum also experienced some minor net inflows of around +17.8 mn USD last week.
Besides, Thematic & basket crypto ETPs continue to see minor net outflows of -7.5 mn USD, based on our calculations. The ETC Group MSCI Digital Assets Select 20 ETP (DA20) saw neither in- nor outflows last week (+/- 0 mn USD).
Meanwhile, global crypto hedge funds continue to decrease their market exposure to Bitcoin. The beta of global crypto hedge funds’ performance has declined to 0.73 over the past 20 trading days.
On-Chain Data
Looking at core on-chain data for Bitcoin, we can make the following observations. Active addresses still hover near year-to-lows as transaction fees remain relatively high. There was also a spike in mean transaction fees last week on Friday to the highest level since the Halving event on the 20th of April. The mean transaction fee reached 83.7 USD that day.
One of the reasons is that the overall number of transactions and also the transaction rate (transactions/second) have gradually increased over the past weeks which has resulted in an increase in the mempool of unconfirmed transactions.
This does not seem to be inscription-related, as this share has remained below 10% of overall transaction count.
The Bitcoin hash rate also continued to be relatively high and we even saw a slight increase in network hash rate compared to the prior week. In this context, there are still no signs of “miner capitulation” in light of the recent reduction of mining revenues due to the Halving. For instance, aggregate BTC miner balances have moved sideways and we haven’t seen significant miner transfers to exchanges either.
Looking at exchange activity, one can observe say that exchange balances continue to decline to fresh multi-year lows. For instance, aggregate BTC exchange balances have touched the lowest level since March 2018 and aggregate ETH exchange balances touched the lowest level since July 2016 last week.
Bitcoin exchanges saw around -21.7k BTC in net withdrawals over the past 7 days and whales have continued to send bitcoins of exchange as well. Whales are defined as network entities that control at least 1,000 BTC.
However, net buying minus selling volumes on exchanges have been negative over the past week, despite significant net inflows into spot US Bitcoin ETFs. This implies that there is significant selling pressure on spot exchanges that is countering current buying demand.
This is probably one of the main reasons why bitcoin has not reclaimed new all-time highs despite reaccelerating US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows.
Futures, Options & Perpetuals
Last week, BTC futures open interest increased significantly and reached the highest level since January 2023 in BTC-terms. Perpetual open interest also reached the highest level since December 2023 in BTC-terms. The significant increase futures open interest was only partially attributed to an increase in CME futures open interest that accounted for less than half of this increase. However, the CME data point to a significant increase in net shortopen interest by non-commercials.
This is probably due to the fact that the Bitcoin futures basis continued to creep upwards and has reached a 2-months high of around 14.2% p.a. This has probably attracted more basis trades, which has resulted in the abovementioned increase in shortopen interest. The basis trade consists of a delta-neutral long and short position in Bitcoin.
Meanwhile, perpetual funding rates continued to be relatively elevated, signalling decent demand for long perpetual contracts.
Bitcoin options’ open interest also increased significantly last week. The decline in relative put-call open interest ratio implies that this increase was mostly driven by an increase in call open interest on a net basis. A call option gives the holder the right to buy the underlying at a specific price in the future. Relative put-call volume ratios declined throughout the week.
The decline in the 25-delta BTC 1-month option skew also corroborates the view that there was increased demand for calls relative to puts.
BTC option implied volatilities also continued to decrease last week. Implied volatilities of 1-month ATM Bitcoin options are currently at around 49.8% p.a.
Bottom Line
• Last week, cryptoassets outperformed traditional assets due to a reacceleration in US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows
• Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Indicator” continues to fluctuate around neutral levels of sentiment
• US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw their highest weekly net inflow since mid-March and have seen 20 consecutive trading days of positive net inflows so far
To read our Crypto Market Compass in full, please click the button below:
This is not investment advice. Capital at risk. Read the full disclaimer
Leonteq EUR Overnight Return Index ETP (EONR ETP) med ISIN CH1381833420, försöker följa Leonteq EUR Overnight Return Index. Leonteq EUR Overnight Return-index följer euroområdets penningmarknad och ger en avkastning på 1/360 av referensräntan Euro Short-Term Overnight Rate (ESTRON) per kalenderdag.
Den börshandlade produktens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,10 % p.a. Leonteq EUR Overnight Return Index ETP är det enda ETN som följer Leonteq EUR Overnight Return Index. Den börshandlade produkten replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda syntetiskt med en swap.
Den börshandlade produkten lanserades den 11 oktober 2024 och har sin hemvist i Schweiz.
Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETP genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRO, Nordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.
First Trust Indxx Future Economy Metals UCITSETF Class A Accumulation (METL ETF) med ISIN IE000UDFKE13, försöker spåra Indxx Global Future Economy Metals-index. Indxx Global Future Economy Metals-index spårar företag över hela världen som är engagerade i prospektering, gruvdrift och/eller raffinering av material som är relevanta för den framtida ekonomin. Dessa inkluderar i synnerhet metaller för hållbar energi, framtida teknologier och framtida mobilitet.
Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,65 % p.a. First Trust Indxx Future Economy Metals UCITSETF Class A Accumulation är den enda ETF som följer Indxx Global Future Economy Metals index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom fullständig replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i ETFen ackumuleras och återinvesteras.
Denna ETF lanserades den 23 januari 2024 och har sin hemvist i Irland.
Investeringsmål
Fonden är en passivt förvaltad indexföljande fond som strävar efter att ge investerare investeringsresultat som generellt motsvarar priset och avkastningen på Indxx Global Future Economy Metals Index (”Indexet”), före avgifter och utgifter. Indexet består av företag som tillhandahåller metaller och element till industrier som kommer att driva den framtida ekonomin. För att ingå i indexet måste företag ha sin primära affärsverksamhet involverad i följande underteman: Metalleverantörer för hållbar energi, Future Tech Metals och NextGen Mobility Metals. Indexet ombalanseras halvårsvis.
Virtune Crypto Altcoin Index ETP (VIRALT ETP) med ISIN SE0023260716, är noterad på Nasdaq Stockholm. VIRALT är en fysiskt uppbackad börshandlad produkt (ETP) designad för att erbjuda investerare ett enkelt, säkert och kostnadseffektivt sätt att få exponering mot ledande alternativa kryptotillgångar (altcoins), exklusive Bitcoin och Ethereum. Detta möjliggörs genom en transparent och fysiskt backad struktur med institutionell säkerhetsnivå.
Tillgångsallokering
Uniswap
14.61%
Cardano
14.54%
XRP
14.48%
Litecoin
14.27%
Avalanche
14.22%
Solana
14.02%
Chainlink
13.87%
Endast kryptotillgångar som är en del av Nasdaq Crypto Index Europe inkluderas.
En diversifierad investering i framtiden av krypto
Hög potential i den intensiva och volatila altcoinmarknaden
Denna ETP är avsedd för investerare med en hög aptit för både de möjligheter och risker som den snabbrörliga altcoinmarknaden erbjuder. I takt med att dessa framväxande kryptotillgångar växer erbjuder Virtune Crypto Altcoin Index ETP en diversifierad exponering mot projekt som kan ha hög potential. ETPn är idealiskt för de investerare som söker investeringar i de mer volatila marknaderna inom krypto bortom Bitcoin och Ethereum.
Grafen baseras på backtesting av det index, Virtune Vinter Crypto Altcoin Index (VVIRALT), som Virtune Crypto Altcoin Index ETP följer.
Månatlig rebalansering
Månatlig rebalansering där allokeringen av varje kryptotillgång justeras till att vara likaviktad. Vid rebalanseringen minskas vikterna i kryptotillgångar som utvecklats starkt och ökas i de kryptotillgångar som utvecklats svagt i relation till varandra. I samband med rebalanseringen kan befintliga kryptotillgångar exkluderas och nya kan läggas till i indexet.
Diversifiering
Att investera i ett altcoin-index gör det möjligt för investerare att få en bred exponering mot kryptomarknaden och sprida sin risk över flera kryptotillgångar exklusive Bitcoin och Ethereum, vilket minskar risken förknippat med att investera i en enskild kryptotillgång.
Likaviktade innehav
Kryptotillgångarna fördelas likaviktat, vilket innebär att varje tillgång ges samma vikt och därmed en jämn fördelning i indexet. Denna strategi möjliggör ökad exponering mot mindre etablerade altcoins, vilket ger en ökad diversifiering och en bredare exponering men också högre volatilitet.
Varför välja ETPer framför direkta kryptoinvesteringar?
Virtunes Börshandlade Produkter (ETPer) erbjuder ett säkert och reglerat sätt att få 1:1 exponering mot kryptotillgångar som Bitcoin, utan komplexiteten av direkt ägande. Med förenklad skatterapportering, förvaring med institutionell säkerhetsnivå, och handel genom din lokala nätmäklare eller bank, är ETP:er ett attraktivt alternativ för investerare som söker ett enkelt och säkert sätt att investera i kryptotillgångar.
Det enklaste sättet
Virtunes ETPer handlas direkt på reglerade börser lika enkelt som att handla en aktie via din nätmäklare eller bank, utan behov av digitala plånböcker, privata nycklar eller krypto-börser.
Skattefördelar
Investering i krypto genom ETPer förenklar ofta skatterapporteringen, eftersom de behandlas som traditionella värdepapper, vilket minskar komplexiteten att spåra enskilda krypto-transaktioner.
Alla dina investeringar samlade på en plats
Integrera dina krypto-investeringar enkelt i din traditionella portfölj. Detta förenklar analys, diversifiering och den övergripande hanteringen av dina investeringar, vilket ger dig mer kontroll och klarhet över din finansiella tillväxt. Institutionell säkerhetsnivå
Virtunes ETPer är 100 procent fysiskt uppbackade. Som en reglerad kapitalförvaltare inom krypto erbjuder Virtune en högre nivå av säkerhet och skydd jämfört med att hålla krypto direkt i personliga plånböcker.
Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETP genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRO, Nordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.
Börsinformation
Börs
Börskod
Valuta
Nasdaq Stockholm
VIRALT
Flow Traders B.V.
Ytterligare investerarskydd
Virtune använder en Säkerhetsagent vars syfte är att skydda och representera investerarna i våra produkter. Kryptotillgångarna som förvaras i cold storage (offline) hos vårt förvaringsinstitut Coinbase är separerade från Virtunes balansräkning.
100% fysiskt uppbackad
Kryptotillgångarna förvaras alltid i cold storage (offline)
Virtunes produkter är alltid 100% fysiskt backade där motsvarande värde av alla utestående värdepapper hålls i de underliggande kryptotillgångarna hos vårt förvaringsinstitut Coinbase. Kryptotillgångarna förvaras alltid separat från Virtunes egen balansräkning i cold storage (offline).