ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis – Commodity rally drives a mixture of profit-taking and position building
Crude oil, industrial metal and gold ETPs see inflows as the price rally draws in investors.
Palladium ETPs see profit taking after a very strong rally.
Inflows into short European equity ETPs the highest since July 2016.
First inflows into crude oil ETPs since November 2016 as investors encouraged by Saudi Arabia adhering to quota. There were US$44.2mn of inflows into long crude oil ETPs last week as oil prices regained losses earlier in the week. Statements by the Saudi Arabian Energy Minister al-Falih indicate that the country has cut production by more than necessary to meet its quota and could reduce production further next month. However, we caution that domestic consumption falls in the winter and so the level of exports from Saudi Arabia may remain the same. With WTI oil price above US$50/bbl since the beginning of December 2016, both production and exports in the US have surged. US production of oil was 2.9% higher in the first week of January compared to the first week of December.
Gold ETPs see third consecutive week of inflows. Inflows of US$22.3mn indicate that investors are combining their bullish cyclical positions with strategic hedges. Despite the equity and cyclical commodity rally in the first two weeks of the year, there is reason for investors to remain cautious. The ‘Trump Rally’ could be fleeting. Although many of the President Elect’s policies appear pro-growth, there is little detail on how they will be implemented. The risk of disappointment is high. The US Dollar (DXY) has lost about 2% while gold has gained close to 5% year-to-date as the vagueness of Trump’s policies has unsettled some investors.
Profit taking in palladium ETPs see an outflow of US$117.7mn.Palladiumhas had a very strong start to the year – gaining close to 11% – which has erased most of the losses the metal sustained in December. Johnson Matthey expect mine supplies to remain flat this year while demand – primarily from the auto sector – will grow. As a result palladium will likely be in the sixth consecutive year of a supply deficit.
Industrial metals rally drives largest inflow into broad metal baskets since November 2016. A combination of a weaker US dollar (in which most commodities are priced) and strong Chinese commodity import data led metal prices to continue to rally last week. Investors bought US$23.3mn of industrial metal basket ETPs and a further US$10mn in individual industrial metal ETPs last week. The market has largely brushed off the lack of detail behind Trump’s infrastructure spending plans and the relaxation of some of Indonesia’s ore export ban.
Investors increase positions in short European equities by the most since September 2015. Inflows of US$5.0mn into shortDAXETPs and US$7.8mn into short FTSE100 ETPs shows that some investors are increasing contrarian positions following the strong equity rally. Meanwhile, the growing relevance of automation in a world where demographic aging and access to low cost migrant workers could become more difficult has led to rising investor interest in robotic equities. Last week’s inflows of US$10.2mn was the highest since October and marks the 18th consecutive week of inflows in ETFs capturing this theme.
Video Presentation
Nitesh Shah, Director, Commodity Research at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.
https://etfsecurities.kulu.net/view/JIWraM3J3tZ
For more information contact
ETF Securities Research team ETF Securities (UK) Limited T +44 (0) 207 448 4336 E info@etfsecurities.com
Important Information
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This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the ”FCA”).
This communication is only targeted at qualified or professional investors.
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Research Newsletter
Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com
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The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.
iShares NASDAQ 100 SwapUCITSETF USD (Acc) (N100 ETF) med ISIN IE0001ZFMLN7, försöker följa Nasdaq 100®-indexet. Nasdaq 100®-indexet spårar ett urval av 100 aktier valda bland icke-finansiella aktier noterade på NASDAQ-börsen.
Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,20 % p.a. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda syntetiskt med en swap. Utdelningarna i ETFen ackumuleras och återinvesteras.
iShares NASDAQ 100 SwapUCITSETF USD (Acc) är en mycket liten ETF med 4 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 3 oktober 2024 och har sin hemvist i Irland.
Varför N100?
Exponering mot 100 av de största amerikanska och internationella icke-finansiella aktierna noterade på NASDAQ-börsen.
Exponering för företag inom stora industrigrupper inklusive hårdvara och mjukvara, telekommunikation, detaljhandel/grossisthandel och bioteknik.
Använd i din portfölj för att söka tillväxt på medellång till lång sikt även om fonden också kan vara lämplig för kortsiktig exponering mot index.
Investeringsmål
Fonden strävar efter att uppnå avkastning på din investering, genom en kombination av kapitaltillväxt och inkomst på fondens tillgångar, vilket återspeglar den totala nettoavkastningen för NASDAQ 100-indexet (”Indexet”).
IncomeShares passed three milestones in August. Assets under management climbed to almost $66 million, cumulative fund flows topped $72 million, and turnover across London and Xetra listings reached over $27 million. Palantir paid the highest annualised distribution yield at 57.11%. The sections below break the numbers down in more detail.
Cumulative fund flows
Fund flows track how much money investors put into or take out of IncomeShares ETPs (exchange-traded products). Positive flows mean more money coming in than going out – a sign of demand for the products.
Flows have risen every month this year. In January, they stood at $13.7 million. By the end of August, they reached $72.4 million. That’s over $8 million of new money added in August alone – the biggest increase since May.
Trading turnover
Turnover is the total dollar value of IncomeShares ETPs bought and sold on the exchanges. Higher turnover means more activity and liquidity for investors.
Turnover reached $27.3 million in August – the highest on record and more than double January’s $13.0 million. London listings (USD and GBP combined) made up $14.2 million, with Xetra listings close behind at $13.1 million. Both exchanges have seen steady increases through 2025, showing rising interest in income options strategies across the board.
Note: Figures use IDC FX rates as of the August month-end to convert GBP and EUR into USD. We apply the same August rates to all prior months to compare turnover on a like-for-like basis.
Assets under management (AUM)
AUM is the total value of assets held across all IncomeShares ETPs. It grows when new investors buy in, or when the underlying assets rise in value.
AUM grew from $13.8 million in January to $65.8 million at the end of August. It was also $8 million more than in July. Steady inflows and consistent income distributions are helping the product range build scale.
Distribution yields
Distribution yields represent the annualised income paid to investors as a percentage of the current NAV (net asset value), based on the latest month’s yield. IncomeShares ETPs aim to generate this income from selling options. Yields change each month depending on strategy performance and market volatility.
Annualised August yields (ranked highest to lowest):
Our Palantir ETP topped the list with an annualised yield of 57.11% for August, up from 30.57% in July. The stock was volatile in August, trading between $142 and $190. That wider range increased option premiums, which boosted the ETP’s yield. The ETP sells put options on Palantir stock and holds shares – the strategy used for all our single stock ETPs and the Magnificent 7 product.
The Nasdaq 100 ETP paid an annualised yield of 46.44% in August, up slightly from 44.52% in July. At the other end, Gold+ and Microsoft stayed below 7%, reflecting relatively calmer conditions in their underlying assets.
The table below shows the annalised distribution yields for all IncomeShares ETPs so far this year. Note that the bottom eight ETPs launched in late June, so they only have yields for July and August.
Key takeaways
• Fund flows climbed to $72.4 million, with August adding more than $8 million.
• Turnover hit a record $27.3 million, split almost evenly between London and Xetra.
• Palantir topped the yield table at 57%, with Nasdaq 100 and Coinbase also paying above 40%.