Nyheter
Commodity bounce supports Aussie
Market Insight – Foreign Exchange – Commodity bounce supports Aussie
11th March 2016
AUD rebounds
On January 18th, concerns over Chinese growth prospects and weakening terms of trade pushed the AUD/USD exchange rate to the lowest level in approximately seven years (30th March 2009). Since 2012, the Australian currency has experienced a relentless decline as the nation’s primary commodity exports of iron ore and coal have suffered from the moderation of Chinese industrial demand. However, in the past two weeks commodity prices and risk sentiment have rebounded from what appears to have been a floor and have supported a 5.8%* appreciation of the AUD on a trade weighted basis (see Figure 1). Recent readings of Australian growth, headline inflation and consumer sentiment have also highlighted the success of existing monetary easing measures and the resilience of the Australian economy in the face of an ailing natural resource sector, contributing further to the AUD’s recent strength. In the coming month, momentum from rising commodity prices and positive risk sentiment is likely to persist, offering further support for the AUD against its major currency counterparts.
Figure 1
(click to enlarge)
Inflation and growth impress
Prospects for the Australian economy look less gloomy following a recent slew of positive data. The latest growth numbers show that during the three months to December, the Australian economy grew by 3%* (on an annualised basis) and inflation rose to 1.7% (Figure 2). Both results surpassed analyst expectations and reflect the success of recent easing measures in mitigating the impact of falling investment and revenue from the nation’s vast mining sector. While in the longer term the economy still faces challenges, in the near term the backdrop looks strong enough to support a continuation of the recent AUD rally.
Figure 2
(click to enlarge)
More easing unlikely in the near term
While the market is currently pricing in further monetary easing this year, it is unlikely that any action will be taken by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) at its April monetary policy meeting. A statement from Glenn Stevens, the RBA governor, made during the last monetary policy meeting explicitly stated that the likely catalyst of any additional easing of monetary policy is “continued low inflation”. With Q1 ‘16 inflation data not due until the 27th April, it is unlikely that the RBA will implement further measures before its meeting in May.
Short positioning to unwind further
Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data shows that since mid-February, net speculative AUD positioning turned positive for the first time since September 2014 (see Figure 3). This move has been driven primarily by an increase in speculative longs to multi-year highs and also in part by a fall in speculative shorts. However, speculative shorts remain elevated by historical standards and further unwinding of short positions could support further upside to the AUD against the US Dollar.
Figure 3
(click to enlarge)
Important Information
This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”).
The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.
This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.
This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.
ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.
During and after the US market close on Friday, cryptocurrency markets experienced their largest liquidation event on record, with an estimated $19 billion in leveraged positions unwound across futures and perpetual swap markets.
We expect Solana to reach beyond $330. Here’s why
Solana’s growth is underpinned by real fundamentals – measurable cash flows, rising user activity, and expanding economic metrics that rival multibillion dollar growth-tech companies. As Solana transitions from a speculative narrative to a revenue-generating powerhouse, traditional valuation tools like discounted cash flow (DCF) models are becoming increasingly relevant in assessing its long-term potential.
Tokenized attention: Pump.fun and the rise of Creator Capital Markets
The internet’s most valuable commodity is attention – and in 2025, that attention is becoming tokenized. Few projects embody this transformation more vividly than Pump.fun, a Solana-based platform that began as a meme-coin launchpad and has rapidly evolved beyond that use case. Launching Project Ascend in September, Pump.fun introduced Creator Capital Markets (CCM) – a suite of tools that lets streamers and influencers tokenize their audiences.
Research Newsletter
Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com
Disclaimer
The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.
JEYH ETF är högavkastande obligationer hedgade i euro
Record crypto liquidations amid tariff shock
VALOUR VIRTUAL SEK följer priset på VIRTUAL, Virtuals Protocols egna token
Crypto market update: record liquidations amid tariff shock
Hur investera i Blockchain med hjälp av börshandlade fonder
HANetf och Infrastructure Capital Advisors samarbetar för att lansera aktivt förvaltad preferensavkastnings-ETF i Europa
IN0A ETF spårar S&P 500 med fokus på företag med höga ESG-betyg
YSLV ETP ställer ut köpoptioner på silver för att skapa en löpande avkastning
De bästa lågvolatilitets ETFer på marknaden
PLTY ETP utfärdar optioner mot aktier i Palantir
-
Nyheter4 veckor sedanHANetf och Infrastructure Capital Advisors samarbetar för att lansera aktivt förvaltad preferensavkastnings-ETF i Europa
-
Nyheter4 veckor sedanIN0A ETF spårar S&P 500 med fokus på företag med höga ESG-betyg
-
Nyheter4 veckor sedanYSLV ETP ställer ut köpoptioner på silver för att skapa en löpande avkastning
-
Nyheter3 veckor sedanDe bästa lågvolatilitets ETFer på marknaden
-
Nyheter4 veckor sedanPLTY ETP utfärdar optioner mot aktier i Palantir
-
Nyheter4 veckor sedanTime in Bitcoin beats timing Bitcoin
-
Nyheter4 veckor sedanInvestera i NEAR med en börshandlad produkt
-
Nyheter4 veckor sedanHANetf kommenterar kopparuppgången
