ETF Securities Commodity ETP Weekly – China fears fade but commodity investors remain defensive on Fed rate outlook
Highlights
• Defensive investors prompt third week of inflows into gold ETPs.
• Nine week inflow streak breaks on profit taking in oil ETPs.
• ETFS Short Copper (SCOP) sees largest outflows in 17 weeks as sentiment rebounds.
• Wheat drives first inflows into agricultural sector in four weeks.
Rebounding economic sentiment has seen cyclical commodity prices surge over the past week, with the exception of the agricultural sector. Despite more optimism surrounding US economic activity – a tighter jobs market and an overall robust report from the US Beige Book – investors have maintained a relatively defensive stance, with gold receiving the largest inflows in the commodities sector. We expect that as the prevailing optimism over global growth overshadows fears over a Chinese slowdown, commodity markets should continue to benefit, even in the face of a rising US Dollar as we saw last week. The Fed lies ahead.
Defensive investors prompt third week of inflows into gold ETPs. G20 deliberations over the weekend addressed concerns about Chinese market volatility but any conclusions or detail was scarce. Alongside the potential for a Fed rate hike in 20- 15, investors are retaining a cautious stance, with both gold and silver receiving solid inflows. Long gold ETPs have received nearly US$265mn over the past three weeks, and this is likely to continue, especially from European investors trying to seek a buffer against further Euro depreciation. Certainly the ECB appears prepared to do more on the stimulus front after last week’s policy meeting and gold continues to provide a good buffer against a loss of international purchasing power for Eurozone residents, with gold in Euros rising nearly 3% so far this year. Silver saw the largest inflows in 22 weeks, totaling US$7.8mn after rising 3.1%.
Nine week inflow streak breaks on profit taking in oil ETPs. Back-to-back weekly gains in crude oil prices has seen investors reduce exposure to the energy sector. The gains appear to be somewhat premature, with US stockpiles posting the largest gains since April last week. Indeed, stockpiles, while in the midst of a seasonal downtrend, are 20% above the 5-year average, indicating the market remains oversupplied. Outflows totaled US$45.9mn last week and were dominated by US WTI exposed ETPs. Meanwhile, reinforcing the view that potential weakness lies ahead, ETFS Daily Short WTI Crude Oil (SOIL) received the largest inflows in 15 weeks, totaling US$6.9mn.
ETFS Short Copper (SCOP) sees largest outflows in 17 weeks as sentiment rebounds. SCOP experienced US$5.8mn of outflows, and alongside US$3.3mn inflows into long copper ETPs, indicates a sharp shift in the negative sentiment that has previously been affecting the industrial metals sector. ETFS Aluminium (ALUM) received the largest inflows in four weeks as global stockpiles reached 6-year lows.
Wheat drives first inflows into agricultural sector in four weeks. Investors appear to be ignoring the plentiful global supplies that are having a depressing impact on wheat prices in recent weeks, with inflows into long wheat ETPs the largest in three weeks. Five of the past six weeks have seen positive inflows into long wheat ETPs, totaling over US$20mn over that period. Sugar was again the best performer among agricultural commodities as wetter weather in Brazil and fears of the El Nino impacting production in India lent support to price. Investors thus far have not capitalized on the gains seen in sugar over the past month, with outflows totaling US$6.5mn.
Key events to watch this week. Central bank policy will remain key focus this week, as investors weigh the growth and inflation outlook of major economies against a backdrop of lingering uncertainty surrounding China. Ahead of the Fed next week, the Bank of England and Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate meetings will be scrutinised for any hints of the extent of feedback from global volatility on domestic economies.
For more information contact
ETF Securities Research team ETF Securities (UK) Limited T +44 (0) 207 448 4336 E info@etfsecurities.com
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iShares NASDAQ 100 SwapUCITSETF USD (Acc) (N100 ETF) med ISIN IE0001ZFMLN7, försöker följa Nasdaq 100®-indexet. Nasdaq 100®-indexet spårar ett urval av 100 aktier valda bland icke-finansiella aktier noterade på NASDAQ-börsen.
Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,20 % p.a. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda syntetiskt med en swap. Utdelningarna i ETFen ackumuleras och återinvesteras.
iShares NASDAQ 100 SwapUCITSETF USD (Acc) är en mycket liten ETF med 4 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 3 oktober 2024 och har sin hemvist i Irland.
Varför N100?
Exponering mot 100 av de största amerikanska och internationella icke-finansiella aktierna noterade på NASDAQ-börsen.
Exponering för företag inom stora industrigrupper inklusive hårdvara och mjukvara, telekommunikation, detaljhandel/grossisthandel och bioteknik.
Använd i din portfölj för att söka tillväxt på medellång till lång sikt även om fonden också kan vara lämplig för kortsiktig exponering mot index.
Investeringsmål
Fonden strävar efter att uppnå avkastning på din investering, genom en kombination av kapitaltillväxt och inkomst på fondens tillgångar, vilket återspeglar den totala nettoavkastningen för NASDAQ 100-indexet (”Indexet”).
IncomeShares passed three milestones in August. Assets under management climbed to almost $66 million, cumulative fund flows topped $72 million, and turnover across London and Xetra listings reached over $27 million. Palantir paid the highest annualised distribution yield at 57.11%. The sections below break the numbers down in more detail.
Cumulative fund flows
Fund flows track how much money investors put into or take out of IncomeShares ETPs (exchange-traded products). Positive flows mean more money coming in than going out – a sign of demand for the products.
Flows have risen every month this year. In January, they stood at $13.7 million. By the end of August, they reached $72.4 million. That’s over $8 million of new money added in August alone – the biggest increase since May.
Trading turnover
Turnover is the total dollar value of IncomeShares ETPs bought and sold on the exchanges. Higher turnover means more activity and liquidity for investors.
Turnover reached $27.3 million in August – the highest on record and more than double January’s $13.0 million. London listings (USD and GBP combined) made up $14.2 million, with Xetra listings close behind at $13.1 million. Both exchanges have seen steady increases through 2025, showing rising interest in income options strategies across the board.
Note: Figures use IDC FX rates as of the August month-end to convert GBP and EUR into USD. We apply the same August rates to all prior months to compare turnover on a like-for-like basis.
Assets under management (AUM)
AUM is the total value of assets held across all IncomeShares ETPs. It grows when new investors buy in, or when the underlying assets rise in value.
AUM grew from $13.8 million in January to $65.8 million at the end of August. It was also $8 million more than in July. Steady inflows and consistent income distributions are helping the product range build scale.
Distribution yields
Distribution yields represent the annualised income paid to investors as a percentage of the current NAV (net asset value), based on the latest month’s yield. IncomeShares ETPs aim to generate this income from selling options. Yields change each month depending on strategy performance and market volatility.
Annualised August yields (ranked highest to lowest):
Our Palantir ETP topped the list with an annualised yield of 57.11% for August, up from 30.57% in July. The stock was volatile in August, trading between $142 and $190. That wider range increased option premiums, which boosted the ETP’s yield. The ETP sells put options on Palantir stock and holds shares – the strategy used for all our single stock ETPs and the Magnificent 7 product.
The Nasdaq 100 ETP paid an annualised yield of 46.44% in August, up slightly from 44.52% in July. At the other end, Gold+ and Microsoft stayed below 7%, reflecting relatively calmer conditions in their underlying assets.
The table below shows the annalised distribution yields for all IncomeShares ETPs so far this year. Note that the bottom eight ETPs launched in late June, so they only have yields for July and August.
Key takeaways
• Fund flows climbed to $72.4 million, with August adding more than $8 million.
• Turnover hit a record $27.3 million, split almost evenly between London and Xetra.
• Palantir topped the yield table at 57%, with Nasdaq 100 and Coinbase also paying above 40%.