Följ oss

Nyheter

Bitcoin Shakes off FUD While Solana Gets Help

Publicerad

den

Bitcoin Shakes off The last mile in the fight against inflation is said to be the longest one. According to the latest monthly publication from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), consumption remained strong in the U.S. as manufacturing activity showed expansion for the first time since 2022, dimming hopes for a rate cut in June. The news created some pull-back in the market, especially for tech stocks like Nasdaq, S&P500, and Invesco, which dipped by 1-2% over the following two days. The U.S. jobs market also ended the week on a high note – not reassuring for rate cuts. Nonfarm Payrolls came in on Friday, indicating that the labor market is stronger than ever, as it increased by 303K compared to the expected 200K. Since March’s results indicate a resilient economy thus far, the Fed will likely delay cutting rates to keep their ammunition for when it’s needed. Now, all eyes are on the CPI print coming out on Wednesday.

The last mile in the fight against inflation is said to be the longest one. According to the latest monthly publication from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), consumption remained strong in the U.S. as manufacturing activity showed expansion for the first time since 2022, dimming hopes for a rate cut in June. The news created some pull-back in the market, especially for tech stocks like Nasdaq, S&P500, and Invesco, which dipped by 1-2% over the following two days. The U.S. jobs market also ended the week on a high note – not reassuring for rate cuts. Nonfarm Payrolls came in on Friday, indicating that the labor market is stronger than ever, as it increased by 303K compared to the expected 200K. Since March’s results indicate a resilient economy thus far, the Fed will likely delay cutting rates to keep their ammunition for when it’s needed. Now, all eyes are on the CPI print coming out on Wednesday.

The bearish sentiment surrounding last week’s macroeconomic indicators spread fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) in the market, mixed with a pinch of profit-taking, starting April with almost a billion dollars in ETF outflows in one day, as shown in Figure 1. On April 2, a day after the ISM publication, on-chain data revealed that the U.S. government moved 30K BTC to an address identified as Coinbase Prime Deposit and another tied to the government. It was the remaining batch of the ~50K BTC that the Department of Justice confiscated from the Silk Road fraud case in November 2021, when Bitcoin traded at above $60K. Last year, the government sold ~20K BTC in two batches. The original plan was for the government to sell the remaining 30K throughout 2023 when Bitcoin was trading way below $40K. While the reason for the hold-up is speculative, the facts are the U.S. government made at least 6% gains on their sale, unlike the losses they accrued when they sold at a discounted price in March and June 2023.

Figure 1 – Bitcoin Spot ETF Flows

Source: Glassnode

Finally, while Bitcoin fell by 6%, from $69.7K to $65K on April 2, the cryptoasset climbed back above $70K levels on April 8. The reason for Bitcoin’s surge to a four-week high could be influenced by short-term holders continuing to accumulate more than 80K BTC since the beginning of April, ahead of the halving event expected in roughly 10 days.

Figure 2 – BTC Supply Held By Long-Term Holders vs. Short-Term Holders (Since October Rally)

Source: Glassnode

Help Is on the Way for Solana’s Technical Hurdles

As Solana emerges as the favored platform for the recent surge in “meme coins,” the increased demand has strained the network’s capacity, leading to difficulties in processing nearly 75% of non-consensus transactions, i.e., transactions that include activities such as swapping, staking, and lending. However, it’s worth highlighting that Solana currently has more than 1.1M new users joining the network daily. This is an increase of more than 1000% from November of last year, which shows the unprecedented growth the network has experienced over Q1 of 2024.

That said, the congestion appears primarily triggered by a surge in bot-driven spam transactions, exacerbated by the growing speculation surrounding meme coins, as bots usually aim to exploit arbitrage opportunities in a thriving ecosystem. In fact, bots have been playing a sizable role in catalyzing network activity, accounting for approximately 55% at the peak over the last few weeks. Notably, on March 18, during Solana’s period of record-breaking decentralized exchange (DEX) trading volume of $26.7B, bot activity attributed to $10.3B of that volume, as illustrated in Figure 3.

Figure 3 – Solana’s Volume Classified into Bot vs Organic Activity

Source: Illemi on Dune

In line with this, several strategies are underway to address the networks’ current limitations. Anza, the team behind Solana’s Agava client, is on the verge of releasing an update aimed at alleviating network bottlenecks and optimizing client software to handle numerous requests more efficiently. Additionally, Solana is gearing up to launch a v0.18 update, which promises enhanced transaction processing capabilities through a new feature called a ”Transaction Scheduler.” A module that prioritizes transactions based on factors like computational requirements, ensuring efficient execution. Finally, the adoption of Solana’s priority fees, enabling users to offer additional fees for higher transaction priority, is poised to expand across various applications in the coming weeks, which could serve as an interim solution adjacent to the network’s engineering enhancements expected to roll out over the coming two weeks.

The Domino Effect of Uniswap’s Fee-Switch Proposal

Several DeFi protocols are restructuring their economic models to enhance the utility of their native tokens. For instance, Aave, the largest money market protocol with nearly $12B in assets under management (AUM), is poised to unveil a “fee-switch” proposal. Marc Zeller, the protocol’s founder, disclosed that a preliminary assessment will be released next week to gauge the community’s response to the new mechanism. If adopted, we could anticipate Aave beginning to distribute revenue to both token holders and stakers. This move would be particularly logical considering the protocol’s current annualized profits of approximately $60M, as depicted in Figure 4, juxtaposed with yearly expenses of approximately $12-15M.

Figure 4 – Aave V2 Monthly Revenue across Ethereum, Polygon and Avalanche

Source: @xmc2 on Dune

As a result, this strategy could prove to be a compelling business approach to incentivize users to support the protocol while reshaping the function of governance tokens. Aave isn’t the only established DeFi protocol pursuing this path either, as Frax Finance, another blue-chip DeFi protocol, activated the “fee-switch” just last week. The newly implemented mechanism has resulted in distributing approximately $400,000 to token stakers, with projected annualized revenue sharing of around $20.8M. Overall, as we emphasized earlier in February, Uniswap’s initiative will likely serve as a pivotal catalyst inspiring numerous existing DeFi protocols to reconsider their approaches to the role of their tokens. Nevertheless, the regulatory implications of these protocols are yet to be fully understood as they could potentially appear to function in a manner akin to securities.

Bookmarks

Have you read our latest report, The Bitcoin Halving and Beyond? Click here to get a digital copy.

This Week’s Calendar

Source: Forex Factory, 21Shares

Research Newsletter

Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com

Disclaimer

The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.

Fortsätt läsa
Annons
Klicka för att kommentera

Skriv en kommentar

Din e-postadress kommer inte publiceras. Obligatoriska fält är märkta *

Nyheter

Crypto Market Espresso | 23. May 2024

Publicerad

den

• The SEC has just approved the spot Ethereum ETFs in the US - we expect approximately 1.65 bn USD potential net inflows into US Ethereum ETFs 3 months after trading launch

• The SEC has just approved the spot Ethereum ETFs in the US – we expect approximately 1.65 bn USD potential net inflows into US Ethereum ETFs 3 months after trading launch

• If we assumed the historical ”performance multiplier” of 6.15 to Ethereum flows to be true, then a ~15% increase in global Ethereum ETF AuM would be associated with ~92% performance

• The approval marks a significant shift in sentiment within the SEC and among US regulators in general but US investors still received inferior investment vehicles compared to European vehicles

6.5 years

The SEC has just approved spot Ethereum ETFs for trading in the US.
Although the exact date of trading launch is unknown and could take a few months, this approval marks a significant shift in sentiment within the SEC and US regulators in general.

The Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) was launched on 14 December 2017. It was the first investment vehicle that allowed professional investors to gain exposure to the second largest cryptoasset – Ethereum.

Nearly 6.5 years later, US investors finally have a more efficient investment vehicle to participate in Ethereum’s performance.

US ETF issuers made last-minute adjustments to their 19b-4 filings to meet the final deadline for the SEC’s decision on VanEck’s spot Ethereum ETF application, which was due on 23 May.

Bloomberg ETF analysts had previously commented that approval could come as early as Wednesday this week, beating consensus expectations for a later approval date. Other applicants included the same companies that applied for a spot bitcoin ETF previously, such as iShares and Fidelity.

The sudden increase in approval odds caught many by surprise, as Bloomberg ETF analysts unexpectedly raised their approval odds from 25% to 75% after the SEC asked exchanges to expedite their 19b-4 filings. Meanwhile, the odds of approval by the end of May on popular betting sites also jumped to over 50%, up from 10% just a few days earlier.

This unexpected rise in approval odds also surprised Ethereum futures short sellers, causing short liquidations in Ethereum futures contracts to surge to their highest level since March.

This caused the price of Ethereum to jump more than 10% in a matter of hours,
reversing much of its underperformance against bitcoin this year.

So, the market had already started to anticipate a potential approval.

But what’s next?

How many fund flows should we expect?

Many market observers have tried to guide down expectations for an Ethereum ETF trading launch.

The reason is that the Ethereum spot ETF approval is coming after a bonanza in fund flows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs which is why Bloomberg ETF analysts expect only around 10%-15% of Bitcoin ETF flows to flow into Ethereum ETFs.

At the time of writing, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have already seen cumulative net fund inflows in the amount of +13.2 bn USD since trading launch on the 11th of January 2024.

12.5% of that amount would imply approximately 1.65 bn USD potential net inflows into US Ethereum ETFs.

This amount would currently be equivalent to ~15% of current global Ethereum ETP assets-under-management (AuM) or around 0.7% of Ethereum’s realized cap, i.e. the amount invested on-chain.

What could be the price effect of this approval?

Nonetheless, this amount of capital could potentially still have a very significant impact on Ethereum’s performance going forward.

The reason is that Ethereum’s performance has shown a significantly higher sensitivity to global ETP flows than Bitcoin in the past.

While Bitcoin’s performance sensitivity to global ETP flows was around ~1.0, Ethereum’s performance has shown an average sensitivity of around 6.15 to global ETP flows in the past.

In other words, an increase of global ETH ETP AuM by 1% per week was associated with an average ETH/USD performance of 6.15% per week.

Now, if we assumed the abovementioned ”multiplier” of 6.15 to be true, then a ~15% increase in global Ethereum ETF AuM would be associated with ~92% performance!

That being said, the sensitivity of Ethereum’s performance to weekly ETP flows can vary significantly over time and has been around ~10.5 more recently.

As a caveat, keep in mind that correlation does not imply causation and that higher net inflows could possibly not cause increases in price.

More specifically, we estimate that global Ethereum ETP flows could only explain around 19.6% in the variation of Ethereum over the past 6 months. So, other factors such as macro or coin-specific factors have played a larger role.

What’s special about these Ethereum ETFs?

The approval marks a significant shift in sentiment within the SEC and US regulators more general. The recent passing of the “crypto bill” in the US senate has demonstrated that there is bipartisan consensus on the importance of cryptoassets for the United States.

The fact that the Trump campaign has recently started accepting crypto donations for campaign finance speaks volumes in this regard as Trump had personally shown a rather anti-crypto stance in the past.

Thus, viewed more broadly within the context of recent domestic political developments in the US, this approval could be evidence of a more mainstream acceptance of cryptoassets as a legitimate asset class.

However, US investors still receive a suboptimal investment vehicle for Ethereum:
The creation-redemption mechanism is still not done in kind and staking has not been allowed within the filings. Thus, US investors won’t be able to fully capture Ethereum’s total return profile via staking returns that currently amount to around 3.2% p.a.

European investors are once again better served with products that allow investors to participate in these total returns such as the ETC Group Ethereum Staking ETP.

Bottom Line

• The SEC has just approved the spot Ethereum ETFs in the US – we expect approximately 1.65 bn USD potential net inflows into US Ethereum ETFs 3 months after trading launch

• If we assumed the historical ”performance multiplier” of 6.15 to Ethereum flows to be true, then a ~15% increase in global Ethereum ETF AuM would be associated with ~92% performance

• The approval marks a significant shift in sentiment within the SEC and among US regulators in general but US investors still received inferior investment vehicles compared to European vehicles

This is not investment advice. Capital at risk. Read the full disclaimer

© ETC Group 2019-2024 | All rights reserved

Fortsätt läsa

Nyheter

Ny aktiv ETF från First Trust på Xetra

Publicerad

den

Från och med går handlas en ny börshandlad fond, en aktiv ETF från First Trust på Xetra och via handelsplatsen Börse Frankfurt.

Från och med går handlas en ny börshandlad fond, en aktiv ETF från First Trust på Xetra och via handelsplatsen Börse Frankfurt.

First Trust Vest U.S. Equity Moderate Buffer UCITS ETF – May (GMAY) driver en aktivt förvaltad investeringsstrategi med syftet att spåra resultatet för S&P 500 Index upp till ett fast uppsidatak. Samtidigt strävar fonden efter att minimera förluster (buffert) för de första 15-procentiga kursfallen i slutet av den definierade målperioden på ett kalenderår. Investeringsförvaltaren investerar hela tillgången i FLEX-optioner, som både säljs och köpoptioner.

Buffertstrategin börjar och slutar i maj varje år och balanseras sedan om genom att fonden investerar i ett nytt paket med FLEX-optioner. Taket beräknas på första referensdatum beroende på marknadsförhållanden, medan bufferten alltid ligger oförändrad på 15 procent. Det aktuella taket och buffertdetaljerna finns tillgängliga på First Trusts webbplats.

NamnISINAvgiftUtdelningspolicy
First Trust Vest U.S. Equity Moderate Buffer UCITS ETF – MayIE000P0FL8E30,85Ackumulerande

Produktutbudet i Deutsche Börses XTF-segment omfattar för närvarande totalt 2 163 ETFer. Med detta urval och en genomsnittlig månatlig handelsvolym på cirka 14 miljarder euro är Xetra den ledande handelsplatsen för ETFer i Europa.

Fortsätt läsa

Nyheter

JSUD ETF köper amerikanska företag som följer Parisavtalet

Publicerad

den

JPMorgan US Research Enhanced Index Equity SRI Paris Aligned UCITS ETF USD (dist) (JSUD ETF), med ISIN IE0002UMVXQ1 är en aktivt förvaltad ETF.

JPMorgan US Research Enhanced Index Equity SRI Paris Aligned UCITS ETF USD (dist) (JSUD ETF), med ISIN IE0002UMVXQ1 är en aktivt förvaltad ETF.

JP Morgan US Research Enhanced Index Equity SRI Paris Aligned Strategy investerar i amerikanska företag. ETF strävar efter att generera en högre avkastning än MSCI USA SRI EU PAB Overlay ESG Custom-index. Aktierna som ingår filtreras enligt ESG-kriterier (miljö, social och bolagsstyrning). Dessutom beaktas EU:s direktiv om klimatskydd.

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,20 % p.a. JPMorgan US Research Enhanced Index Equity SRI Paris Aligned UCITS ETF USD (dist) är den billigaste och största ETF som följer JP Morgan US Research Enhanced Index Equity SRI Paris Aligned index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom samplingsteknik (köper ett urval av de mest relevanta indexbeståndsdelarna). Utdelningarna i ETFen delas ut till investerarna (Årligen).

ETF lanserades den 9 augusti 2023 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Investeringsmål

Delfondens mål är att uppnå en långsiktig avkastning som överstiger MSCI USA SRI EU PAB Overlay ESG Custom Index* (”riktmärket”) genom att aktivt investera i huvudsak i en portfölj av amerikanska företag samtidigt som man anpassar sig till målen för Parisavtalet.

Riskprofil

Värdet på aktierelaterade värdepapper kan sjunka såväl som upp som svar på enskilda företags resultat och allmänna marknadsförhållanden, ibland snabbt eller oförutsägbart. Om ett företag går i konkurs eller en liknande finansiell omstrukturering förlorar dess aktier vanligtvis det mesta eller hela sitt värde.

Uteslutning av företag som inte uppfyller vissa kriterier från delfondens investeringsuniversum kan leda till att delfonden presterar annorlunda jämfört med liknande fonder som inte har en sådan policy.

Delfonden strävar efter att ge en avkastning över Benchmark; Delfonden kan dock prestera sämre än jämförelseindexet.

Handla JSUD ETF

JPMorgan US Research Enhanced Index Equity SRI Paris Aligned UCITS ETF USD (dist) (JSUD ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och London Stock Exchange.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
gettexEURJSUD
London Stock ExchangeUSDJSUD
XETRAEURJSUD

Största innehav

NamnISINLandVikt %
MICROSOFT CORPUS5949181045USA7.71%
APPLE INCUS0378331005USA7.24%
NVIDIA CORPUS67066G1040USA4.27%
AMAZON.COM INCUS0231351067USA3.46%
TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INCUS8825081040USA2.30%
ADOBE INCUS00724F1012USA2.22%
ZOETIS INCUS98978V1035USA2.19%
AUTOMATIC DATA PROCESSINGUS0530151036USA1.94%
DANAHER CORPUS2358511028USA1.66%
MASTERCARD INC – AUS57636Q1040USA1.65%

Innehav kan komma att förändras

Fortsätt läsa

Populära