Inflation is at a record high of 9.1%, with fears next hike might be 100 basis points, although Fed officials signaled that they would stick to a 75-bp rate increase during their meeting last month. Moreover, the European Central Bank is expected to raise rates by 25 bps at its policy meeting later this week. The crypto market however has been working upwards, with Bitcoin improving by 3.6% over the past week. Ethereum is performing exceptionally better, by 27.3% since last Monday, as the Merge inches closer towards reality after the ninth shadow fork went live on July 15. In the meantime, equities have been sluggish over the past week with S&P 500 index declining by 0.63%, whereas the NASDAQ composite dipped by 0.56% and Dow Jones Industrial Average barely moved with a 0.18% decline.
Key Takeaways
• UK court files lawsuit against anonymous people linked to NFT airdrop
• Net transfer from/to exchanges depicts moderate momentum
• DeFi’s blue-chips further integrating with TradFi through tokenization
In a recent report, Chainalysis revealed that 10% of all funds coming from illicit addresses are sent to crypto mixers, such as Tornado Cash and Blender.io that has been recently sanctioned by the US on the back of the infamous Axie Infinity hack, where $620M in cryptoassets were stolen. As shown below, the 30-day moving average reached an all-time high of $51.8M worth of cryptocurrency on April 19.
Figure 1: 30-day moving average of total daily transactions received by mixers
Source: Chainalysis
Russia passed a law banning digital assets as payments, making it illegal to pay for goods and services in crypto. This comes after a sharp U-turn the Russian president took back in February to legalize cryptoassets as a payment method, which was another sharp pivot from the Russian central bank’s proposed ban on the mining and use of cryptocurrencies, dubbed as a strategic move to quash opposition crowdfunding donations through BTC after having their bank accounts subdued. Moreover, the Russian parliament is also considering two bills, one regulating crypto miners and the other setting requirements for companies dealing with cryptoassets.
In the US, the Treasury is asking the public for input on the benefits and risks that come with cryptoassets. On the other hand, Democrats launched an investigation into energy use at the country’s seven largest crypto mining companies. The findings were published on Friday, showing that the seven companies alone consume as much as 1,045 megawatts of power, enough electricity to power all the residences of Houston, the fourth-largest city in the US with 2.3 million residents. While the energy consumption of Bitcoin mining could be worrying, this is an analogy that we dread at the Research Team, especially knowing that traditional finance’s energy consumption surpasses miners’ around the world by 56%.
In a remarkable step that speaks volumes about legal adaptation to emerging technologies, a UK court is allowing the founder of Microgame, an online gambling company based in Italy, to file a lawsuit against anonymous people through an NFT drop. The will allow the founder to serve legal documents to people who are not known but are connected to two digital wallets. As the case currently stands, this also counts as progress in terms of not confusing the culprit with the blockchain technology.
There is more money entering the bear market, with Multicoin Capital raising $430M for its Venture Fund III eyeing crypto projects demonstrating what they call “proof of physical work,” creating economic incentives for permissionless contribution. On-chain Indicators
One chief metric that depicts the moderate shift in momentum has been the net transfer aggregate to and from exchanges. By looking at the number of inflows and outflows, we can see that the 17th of June marked the second biggest outflow of BTC (~60K BTC) from all trading platforms since July of 2016 – the period preceding the last bull cycle which took off in 2017. The figure was higher than that of covid and the bottom of the last bear cycle in June of 21.
Figure2: Net Transfer from/to Exchanges
This deviation in momentum can explain that the selling pressure that was instigated by the consecutive devastating events that started with Luna, and spilt over to 3AC, celsius and the other big names in the space, could be running dry. That said, it doesn’t mean that the contagion of all of these insolvent firms is over yet, only shows that the wider market participants see the current price level as one of extremely high interest.
Weekly Returns
The returns of the top five cryptoassets over the last week were as follows — BTC (15.7%), ETH (50.9%), BNB (19.22%), ADA(16.88%), XRP (16.67%)
News
Polygon Introduces Web3 Phone
What happened?
Ethereum scaling solution Polygon has partnered with phone maker Nothing to bring Web3 tech to the company’s first mobile phone, the Android-based Nothing Phone (1). The move will essentially grant the phone users with easy access to apps and games on Polygon’s platform, and along the way, Nothing will bring payments and future features like Polygon ID, the company’s zero-knowledge, and proof-based identification solution.
Why does it matter?
Polygon’s announcement uncannily follows Solana’s announcement of Saga, also a flagship Android-based phone with Web3 features. But before these two, Sirin Labs announced they’re building a blockchain phone in 2018 and its product is still alive on the shelves, however, it seems it has been drowned by the 25% layoffs and a lawsuit for unpaid $6M in factory bills dating back to two years ago. work marks a resurrection of efforts to develop a blockchain-native phone.
What’s different today with Solana and Polygon’s phones is mainly the utility and the community. Time is on their side with regards to the traction Web3 has been collecting. However, whether the world is ready for an Android-based phone with Web3 functionality, might be tricky given that phones have in some way become the Rolex of today’s vanity. It will be a tough argument today, but just like the metaverse didn’t work in 2017, Web3 phones might be a hit in the future.
Research Newsletter
Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com
Disclaimer
The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.
iShares Europe Focus UCITS ETFer investerar i europeiska företag och möjliggör anpassning efter geografisk intäktskälla. Investeringsstrategin skiljer mellan företag som genererar minst 50 procent av sina intäkter i Europa och de som huvudsakligen fokuserar på icke-europeiska marknader.
Schroder US Equity Active UCITSETFförvaltas aktivt och investerar i nordamerikanska aktier. Investeringsstrategin fokuserar på företag med tydliga värde- och/eller kvalitetsegenskaper och riktar sig till undervärderade företag med starka marknadspositioner samt företag som uppvisar stabila intäkter och robusta balansräkningar.
Xtrackers II Global Government Bond UCITSETFger exponering mot investment grade-statsobligationer från utvecklade länder, där USA, Japan, Frankrike och Tyskland representerar de största landsviktningarna.
Produktutbudet inom Deutsche Börses ETF- och ETP-segment omfattar för närvarande totalt 2 808 ETFer, 204 ETCer och 329 ETNer. Med detta urval och en genomsnittlig månatlig handelsvolym på cirka 28,6 miljarder euro är Deutsche Börse Xetra den ledande handelsplatsen för ETFer och ETPer i Europa.
Virtune, en svensk reglerad kapitalförvaltare av kryptotillgångar, meddelar noteringen av Virtune Sui ETP på Nasdaq Stockholm, den största börsen i Norden.
Virtune är en svensk kapitalförvaltare och emittent av fysiskt backade börshandlade produkter (ETPer) inom krypto. Sedan lanseringen 2023 har Virtune fått förtroende av mer än 160 000 investerare och har idag cirka 300 miljoner USD i förvaltat kapital (AUM), vilket stärker bolagets position som en av Europas ledande emittenter av reglerade krypto-ETPer. Bolaget har över 90% marknadsandel för krypto-ETNer på Nasdaq Nordics.
Om Virtune Sui ETP
Virtune Sui ETP är en fysiskt backad börshandlad produkt som är utformad för att erbjuda investerare ett säkert och kostnadseffektivt sätt att få exponering mot Sui. Detta möjliggörs genom en transparent och fysiskt backad struktur med institutionell säkerhetsnivå.
Sui (SUI) är en blockkedja av nästa generation som är utformad för att hantera höga transaktionsvolymer med nästan omedelbar slutgiltighet och låga avgifter. Drivs av programmeringsspråket Move och en innovativ objektcentrerad datamodell, vilket gör det möjligt för utvecklare att skapa skalbara applikationer såsom spel, DeFi och NFT:er samtidigt som en sömlös användarupplevelse levereras.
Christopher Kock, VD för Virtune: “Vi är mycket glada över att fortsätta expandera vårt produkterbjudande på vår hemmamarknad, Nasdaq Stockholm. Idag noterar vi Virtune Sui ETP, en produkt som har varit efterlängtad av investerare runt om i Norden. ETP:n är nu tillgänglig via banker och nätmäklare i Norden, handlas i SEK och är 100% fysiskt backad av SUI.”
Kryptoinvesteringar är förknippat med hög risk. Virtune ger inte investeringsråd. Investeringar görs på egen risk. Värdepapper kan öka eller minska i värde, det finns ingen garanti att man får tillbaka investerat kapital. Läs prospekt, KID, villkor på www.virtune.com.
The United States remains economically and financially dominant, but beneath the surface doubts are growing about how sustainable that position really is. According to Benjamin Jones, head of research at Invesco, the continued rise in gold suggests that investors are preparing for a world in which the balance of power is shifting, without any clear alternative leader emerging.
The US twin deficits
The joint, pre-2025 rally in US risk assets and the dollar sits uneasily with concerns over US fiscal and current-account deficits, a deteriorating Net International Investment Position (NIIP), reindustrialisation goals, and the secular rise in gold, explains Jones.
“In our view, the long-running rally in gold alongside high returns and rising concentration in dollar assets reflects two forces: a faltering world order and the economics of heavy US fiscal imbalances, rising external obligations, and persistent deficits; but also, the unique success of US firms in driving GDP growth, earnings and innovation. Ironically, that strength may itself increase the risk of a financial, currency or balance-of-payments shock in a geopolitical crisis.”
According to Jones, the sharp drop in the US NIIP has come as foreign claims outstrip US claims abroad. “This was driven less by foreign Treasury holdings, which have stabilised, and more by inflows into private-sector assets, especially equities, as investors embraced “US Exceptionalism” as shorthand for superior growth and financial performance relative to peers such as Western Europe and Japan. The result has been major inflows into US equities, corporate debt and private markets.”
Even though much of the increase in exposure has been to risk assets rather than bonds, large outflows could still threaten fiscal and financial stability, says Jones. “For now, trade barriers and efforts to weaken the dollar to promote reindustrialisation have prompted rebalancing away from US stocks, bonds and the dollar. Amid geopolitical tensions, weaker fiscal and external positions, and renewed protectionism and unpredictability, official investors and private investors have sharply increased gold purchases as a store of value.”
Heavy gold flow in financial markets
US financial leadership persists despite geoeconomic rebalancing toward rivals, Jones continues. “The US still leads in market capitalisation, turnover and liquidity, while the Treasury market remains the largest and deepest pool of debt issuance. Dollar liquidity is so high that trades <<between other currencies are often executed through the dollar. Global portfolio concentration in the US has also been reinforced by inflows into benchmarked funds and passive trackers. The core driver remains US exceptionalism. Rich valuations and concentration in US tech may suggest a bubble, yet US firms have continued to deliver innovation, market share, revenue and earnings growth.”
According to Jones, rivals remain less compelling from a market perspective. “Europe has lagged the US since the financial crisis, while China has matched or surpassed US innovation but, until recently, delivered weaker market returns due to domestic de-risking policies.”
The US share of official reserves has declined somewhat, while the euro and most other currencies have levelled off, Jones continues. “Gold’s share has risen sharply since the start of the war in Ukraine in 2022, suggesting the TINA problem persists: there is no real alternative to the dollar other than gold itself. Central banks increasingly prefer the safety of gold, the liability of no government.”
Future: Geopolitical, economic, technological and military competition An open world economy helped many countries narrow productivity gaps with the US, but leadership is no longer aligned across power domains. “Economically, the world is increasingly tripolar, centred on the US, China and the eurozone. Militarily, power is concentrated in the US, China and Russia. Technologically, the US and China are at or near parity, while others lag. Financially, however, the US still has no peer,” notes Jones.
He continues: “Conventional economic, military and technological competition therefore still matters, even in a nuclear world. US concerns about overextension are sharpened by China’s vast industrial capacity, with output and shipbuilding far exceeding that of the US. Recent wars have shown that modern conflict still depends on industrial mobilisation for technology, drones and ammunition. This helps explain the US push for reindustrialisation.”
At the same time, US fiscal and external obligations create vulnerabilities if confidence were shaken by a future crisis, conflict or major shock. Jones concludes: “Washington is also retreating from parts of the multilateral order while seeking to reshape global trade more in its favour, reinforcing perceptions of unilateralism. Gold may be signaling an incomplete global reordering: not a clear new polarity, but an “unipolar” world in which leadership shifts by issue, region and moment. The US and the dollar would still likely remain first among equals, supported by deep financial markets, technological dynamism and strategic advantages, even as rival powers continue to rise.”