Följ oss

Nyheter

All-Time High Season⬆: What Happened in Crypto This Week?

Publicerad

den

Bitcoin above $70K while inflation remains sticky Ethereum’s Dencun Upgrade went live Arbitrum about to experience a massive token unlock event

• Bitcoin above $70K while inflation remains sticky

• Ethereum’s Dencun Upgrade went live

• Arbitrum about to experience a massive token unlock event

Bitcoin above $70K, while inflation remains sticky

Bitcoin doesn’t seem to stop and keeps on reaching higher. On March 11 the biggest crypto asset jumped above the $70K mark and has maintained above it since the time of writing. The main driver continues to be the US Bitcoin Spot ETFs, which experienced record inflows of more than $1 billion on March 12. The “newborn” nine now accumulated more than 400K BTC, double the post-halving issuance of Bitcoin (~165K BTC). If this accumulation persists, a potential supply squeeze is still in play. Additionally, fundamentals also continue to be strong for Bitcoin. Last week, a Bitcoin Ordinal was sold for 17 BTC on Magic Eden, the leading NFT marketplace that has recently launched its multi-chain wallet supporting Solana, Bitcoin, Polygon, and Ethereum. Thanks to its early adoption of Bitcoin Ordinals, Magic Eden has increased in market share to over 35% in daily volumes, toppling Blur and OpenSea. However, attention should be given to Bitcoin’s open interest in futures and perpetual swaps, which remain high. As speculators and leverage traders flock to the market, we might see increased volatility in the short term.

Looking at macro data, consumer prices (CPI) rose by 0.4% in February and 3.2% over the past year, slightly hotter than expectations. Core inflation, which leaves out volatile food and energy prices, was also 0.4% over the month and 3.8% over the last year. Living conditions in the U.S. are becoming more expensive, as costs for shelter, airline tickets, and gasoline, among others, have increased in February. All eyes are on the upcoming FOMC meeting on March 20, which is expected to shed light on the Federal Reserve’s approach to potential rate cuts. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, market participants still anticipate an initial rate cut of 25 basis points (bps) by June. Despite the inflation data, over the past 5 days, markets seemed unfazed, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq climbing by 0.64% and 0.19%, respectively.

Figure 1: US Bitcoin ETF Flows

Source: Glassnode

Dencun is live!

Ethereum’s eagerly anticipated ”Dencun” upgrade was activated on Wednesday, paving the way for a significant reduction in the costs associated with using Layer 2 rollups like Arbitrum, Optimism, and Starknet. Thanks to the Dencun upgrade, these costs are expected to decrease by as much as ten times. However, to fully realize these benefits, rollups need to undergo their own updates. The teams behind Arbitrum and Optimism, the two leading rollups, are set to implement these necessary changes on Thursday. This upgrade represents a significant leap forward for Ethereum, which has often been criticized for its slow speeds and high costs, despite aspirations for it to become a ”world computer” that underpins a new era of crypto-based financial services, social networks, and beyond. It’s important to note that while the upgrade improves transaction fees on Layer 2 platforms, it doesn’t directly affect gas fees on the Ethereum mainnet. Although the price of ETH and other Layer 2 solutions has not shown significant movement over the last 24 hours, they have experienced substantial price appreciation in the 30 days leading up to the event. This increase can be partially attributed to the surge in Bitcoin prices and speculation regarding a potential Ethereum ETF, as well as anticipation of this significant event.

Figure 2: Monthly performance of ETH and its leading scalability solution

Source: 21Shares, Coingecko (Note: Starknet launched its token on February 20, 2024)

Arbitrum Token Unlock Event

On March 16, Arbitrum plans to release 1.1 billion tokens into circulation, which means over $2 billion worth of vested ARB tokens would be added to the circulating supply. Investors should be aware that the unlock represents a 76.6% increase in the circulating supply of Arbitrum and may lead to selling pressure. However, given that the token unlock is timed closely to Ethereum’s Dencun upgrade and taking into account the current momentum in the market, the demand for ARB could rise, potentially minimizing the impact of the token release. Despite the potential market impact of ARB’s token unlock, users have persistently injected capital into the Arbitrum network, propelling it to achieve an all-time high (ATH) of $3.67 billion in AuM. Notably, it grew by close to 8% over the last week, demonstrating strong confidence in its ecosystem, in contrast to Optimism, which grew by only 0.7% over the same period.

Alternatively, on March 7, the Optimism Foundation sold $90M worth of OP in a private token sale, subject to a two-year lockup. During the lock-up period, the unidentified buyer will be able to delegate the tokens to unaffiliated third parties for governance participation. As previously noted, solutions like Arbitrum and Optimism must upgrade their networks to leverage the advantages of the Dencun upgrade. Thus, it will be intriguing to observe the extent of cost reductions and the onboarding of more users, propelling their adoption in the coming months.

Figure 3: Breakdown of ARB Token Allocation During the Unlock Event

Source: Token Unlocks

This Week’s Calendar

Source: Forex Factory, 21Shares

Research Newsletter

Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com

Disclaimer

The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.

Fortsätt läsa
Annons
Klicka för att kommentera

Skriv en kommentar

Din e-postadress kommer inte publiceras. Obligatoriska fält är märkta *

Nyheter

Crypto Market Espresso | 23. May 2024

Publicerad

den

• The SEC has just approved the spot Ethereum ETFs in the US - we expect approximately 1.65 bn USD potential net inflows into US Ethereum ETFs 3 months after trading launch

• The SEC has just approved the spot Ethereum ETFs in the US – we expect approximately 1.65 bn USD potential net inflows into US Ethereum ETFs 3 months after trading launch

• If we assumed the historical ”performance multiplier” of 6.15 to Ethereum flows to be true, then a ~15% increase in global Ethereum ETF AuM would be associated with ~92% performance

• The approval marks a significant shift in sentiment within the SEC and among US regulators in general but US investors still received inferior investment vehicles compared to European vehicles

6.5 years

The SEC has just approved spot Ethereum ETFs for trading in the US.
Although the exact date of trading launch is unknown and could take a few months, this approval marks a significant shift in sentiment within the SEC and US regulators in general.

The Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) was launched on 14 December 2017. It was the first investment vehicle that allowed professional investors to gain exposure to the second largest cryptoasset – Ethereum.

Nearly 6.5 years later, US investors finally have a more efficient investment vehicle to participate in Ethereum’s performance.

US ETF issuers made last-minute adjustments to their 19b-4 filings to meet the final deadline for the SEC’s decision on VanEck’s spot Ethereum ETF application, which was due on 23 May.

Bloomberg ETF analysts had previously commented that approval could come as early as Wednesday this week, beating consensus expectations for a later approval date. Other applicants included the same companies that applied for a spot bitcoin ETF previously, such as iShares and Fidelity.

The sudden increase in approval odds caught many by surprise, as Bloomberg ETF analysts unexpectedly raised their approval odds from 25% to 75% after the SEC asked exchanges to expedite their 19b-4 filings. Meanwhile, the odds of approval by the end of May on popular betting sites also jumped to over 50%, up from 10% just a few days earlier.

This unexpected rise in approval odds also surprised Ethereum futures short sellers, causing short liquidations in Ethereum futures contracts to surge to their highest level since March.

This caused the price of Ethereum to jump more than 10% in a matter of hours,
reversing much of its underperformance against bitcoin this year.

So, the market had already started to anticipate a potential approval.

But what’s next?

How many fund flows should we expect?

Many market observers have tried to guide down expectations for an Ethereum ETF trading launch.

The reason is that the Ethereum spot ETF approval is coming after a bonanza in fund flows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs which is why Bloomberg ETF analysts expect only around 10%-15% of Bitcoin ETF flows to flow into Ethereum ETFs.

At the time of writing, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have already seen cumulative net fund inflows in the amount of +13.2 bn USD since trading launch on the 11th of January 2024.

12.5% of that amount would imply approximately 1.65 bn USD potential net inflows into US Ethereum ETFs.

This amount would currently be equivalent to ~15% of current global Ethereum ETP assets-under-management (AuM) or around 0.7% of Ethereum’s realized cap, i.e. the amount invested on-chain.

What could be the price effect of this approval?

Nonetheless, this amount of capital could potentially still have a very significant impact on Ethereum’s performance going forward.

The reason is that Ethereum’s performance has shown a significantly higher sensitivity to global ETP flows than Bitcoin in the past.

While Bitcoin’s performance sensitivity to global ETP flows was around ~1.0, Ethereum’s performance has shown an average sensitivity of around 6.15 to global ETP flows in the past.

In other words, an increase of global ETH ETP AuM by 1% per week was associated with an average ETH/USD performance of 6.15% per week.

Now, if we assumed the abovementioned ”multiplier” of 6.15 to be true, then a ~15% increase in global Ethereum ETF AuM would be associated with ~92% performance!

That being said, the sensitivity of Ethereum’s performance to weekly ETP flows can vary significantly over time and has been around ~10.5 more recently.

As a caveat, keep in mind that correlation does not imply causation and that higher net inflows could possibly not cause increases in price.

More specifically, we estimate that global Ethereum ETP flows could only explain around 19.6% in the variation of Ethereum over the past 6 months. So, other factors such as macro or coin-specific factors have played a larger role.

What’s special about these Ethereum ETFs?

The approval marks a significant shift in sentiment within the SEC and US regulators more general. The recent passing of the “crypto bill” in the US senate has demonstrated that there is bipartisan consensus on the importance of cryptoassets for the United States.

The fact that the Trump campaign has recently started accepting crypto donations for campaign finance speaks volumes in this regard as Trump had personally shown a rather anti-crypto stance in the past.

Thus, viewed more broadly within the context of recent domestic political developments in the US, this approval could be evidence of a more mainstream acceptance of cryptoassets as a legitimate asset class.

However, US investors still receive a suboptimal investment vehicle for Ethereum:
The creation-redemption mechanism is still not done in kind and staking has not been allowed within the filings. Thus, US investors won’t be able to fully capture Ethereum’s total return profile via staking returns that currently amount to around 3.2% p.a.

European investors are once again better served with products that allow investors to participate in these total returns such as the ETC Group Ethereum Staking ETP.

Bottom Line

• The SEC has just approved the spot Ethereum ETFs in the US – we expect approximately 1.65 bn USD potential net inflows into US Ethereum ETFs 3 months after trading launch

• If we assumed the historical ”performance multiplier” of 6.15 to Ethereum flows to be true, then a ~15% increase in global Ethereum ETF AuM would be associated with ~92% performance

• The approval marks a significant shift in sentiment within the SEC and among US regulators in general but US investors still received inferior investment vehicles compared to European vehicles

This is not investment advice. Capital at risk. Read the full disclaimer

© ETC Group 2019-2024 | All rights reserved

Fortsätt läsa

Nyheter

Ny aktiv ETF från First Trust på Xetra

Publicerad

den

Från och med går handlas en ny börshandlad fond, en aktiv ETF från First Trust på Xetra och via handelsplatsen Börse Frankfurt.

Från och med går handlas en ny börshandlad fond, en aktiv ETF från First Trust på Xetra och via handelsplatsen Börse Frankfurt.

First Trust Vest U.S. Equity Moderate Buffer UCITS ETF – May (GMAY) driver en aktivt förvaltad investeringsstrategi med syftet att spåra resultatet för S&P 500 Index upp till ett fast uppsidatak. Samtidigt strävar fonden efter att minimera förluster (buffert) för de första 15-procentiga kursfallen i slutet av den definierade målperioden på ett kalenderår. Investeringsförvaltaren investerar hela tillgången i FLEX-optioner, som både säljs och köpoptioner.

Buffertstrategin börjar och slutar i maj varje år och balanseras sedan om genom att fonden investerar i ett nytt paket med FLEX-optioner. Taket beräknas på första referensdatum beroende på marknadsförhållanden, medan bufferten alltid ligger oförändrad på 15 procent. Det aktuella taket och buffertdetaljerna finns tillgängliga på First Trusts webbplats.

NamnISINAvgiftUtdelningspolicy
First Trust Vest U.S. Equity Moderate Buffer UCITS ETF – MayIE000P0FL8E30,85Ackumulerande

Produktutbudet i Deutsche Börses XTF-segment omfattar för närvarande totalt 2 163 ETFer. Med detta urval och en genomsnittlig månatlig handelsvolym på cirka 14 miljarder euro är Xetra den ledande handelsplatsen för ETFer i Europa.

Fortsätt läsa

Nyheter

JSUD ETF köper amerikanska företag som följer Parisavtalet

Publicerad

den

JPMorgan US Research Enhanced Index Equity SRI Paris Aligned UCITS ETF USD (dist) (JSUD ETF), med ISIN IE0002UMVXQ1 är en aktivt förvaltad ETF.

JPMorgan US Research Enhanced Index Equity SRI Paris Aligned UCITS ETF USD (dist) (JSUD ETF), med ISIN IE0002UMVXQ1 är en aktivt förvaltad ETF.

JP Morgan US Research Enhanced Index Equity SRI Paris Aligned Strategy investerar i amerikanska företag. ETF strävar efter att generera en högre avkastning än MSCI USA SRI EU PAB Overlay ESG Custom-index. Aktierna som ingår filtreras enligt ESG-kriterier (miljö, social och bolagsstyrning). Dessutom beaktas EU:s direktiv om klimatskydd.

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,20 % p.a. JPMorgan US Research Enhanced Index Equity SRI Paris Aligned UCITS ETF USD (dist) är den billigaste och största ETF som följer JP Morgan US Research Enhanced Index Equity SRI Paris Aligned index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom samplingsteknik (köper ett urval av de mest relevanta indexbeståndsdelarna). Utdelningarna i ETFen delas ut till investerarna (Årligen).

ETF lanserades den 9 augusti 2023 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Investeringsmål

Delfondens mål är att uppnå en långsiktig avkastning som överstiger MSCI USA SRI EU PAB Overlay ESG Custom Index* (”riktmärket”) genom att aktivt investera i huvudsak i en portfölj av amerikanska företag samtidigt som man anpassar sig till målen för Parisavtalet.

Riskprofil

Värdet på aktierelaterade värdepapper kan sjunka såväl som upp som svar på enskilda företags resultat och allmänna marknadsförhållanden, ibland snabbt eller oförutsägbart. Om ett företag går i konkurs eller en liknande finansiell omstrukturering förlorar dess aktier vanligtvis det mesta eller hela sitt värde.

Uteslutning av företag som inte uppfyller vissa kriterier från delfondens investeringsuniversum kan leda till att delfonden presterar annorlunda jämfört med liknande fonder som inte har en sådan policy.

Delfonden strävar efter att ge en avkastning över Benchmark; Delfonden kan dock prestera sämre än jämförelseindexet.

Handla JSUD ETF

JPMorgan US Research Enhanced Index Equity SRI Paris Aligned UCITS ETF USD (dist) (JSUD ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och London Stock Exchange.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
gettexEURJSUD
London Stock ExchangeUSDJSUD
XETRAEURJSUD

Största innehav

NamnISINLandVikt %
MICROSOFT CORPUS5949181045USA7.71%
APPLE INCUS0378331005USA7.24%
NVIDIA CORPUS67066G1040USA4.27%
AMAZON.COM INCUS0231351067USA3.46%
TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INCUS8825081040USA2.30%
ADOBE INCUS00724F1012USA2.22%
ZOETIS INCUS98978V1035USA2.19%
AUTOMATIC DATA PROCESSINGUS0530151036USA1.94%
DANAHER CORPUS2358511028USA1.66%
MASTERCARD INC – AUS57636Q1040USA1.65%

Innehav kan komma att förändras

Fortsätt läsa

Populära