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All Eyes on the Federal Reserve
ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly All Eyes on the Federal Reserve
Tin prices rebound from six year low.
Chinese bourses climb on stimulus hopes.
EURJPY in focus as BOJ meets ahead of Eurozone inflation.
The week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting to decide on US rates will not be followed by a press conference. The market will therefore remain very attentive to FOMC member speeches and public engagements to glean any information about the possible path of rate increases this year. As a result, we expect no surprises, which will keep USD gains capped. Elsewhere, continued Greek bailout negotiations will likely weigh on European bourses and keep volatility high. The rising animosity between the Greek Finance Minister and his EU counterparts has increased the risk of an accident in negotiations.
Commodities
Tin prices rebound from six year low. Tin prices witnessed a 3.4% weekly gain, after having declined by 40% since April last year. Tin prices have come under significant pressure following the appreciation of the US Dollar and burgeoning production of tin ore from Myanmar. The sharp increase in price came as the largest tin producer in Indonesia, the world’s top exporter, announced that it would be cutting production in the face of price weakness. In emissions markets, the price of carbon allowances rose 5.5% as progress was made toward relieving the current oversupply of allowances in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS). The conclusion of the US winter and its associated seasonal heating demand weighed on the natural gas price this week. The price fell 5.7% as US working natural gas inventories grew by more than expected, reflecting the absence of significant demand.
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Equities
Chinese bourses climb on stimulus hopes. The MSCI China A Index rallied 5.4% during the week following a reduction of the national reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 1% to 18.5%. Speculation has been growing that Chinese authorities will aggressively support growth targets through monetary stimulus, fuelling bullish sentiment and taking the index to highs not witnessed since 2007. In Europe, equity indices have fallen over the week as concerns grew that Greece will fail to meet its upcoming €780mn debt payment to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) due in May. IMF Director, Christine Lagarde, has made it clear that the international group will not allow Greece to delay these payments, putting greater pressure on the nation to finalise negotiations over economic overhauls and its international bailout. The DAX 30 and FTSE MIB Index have fallen by 2.3% and 1.7% respectively as a result.
Currencies
EURJPY in focus as BOJ meets ahead of Eurozone inflation. The Bank of Japan has appeared to be comfortable with the progress with the inflation outlook, and as such we feel that the upcoming policy meeting will be largely uneventful. The first tendrils of wage growth appear to be starting to take root, in turn helping inflation stabilise around the 2% level, in line with the BOJ target. Alongside CPI, a raft of other Japanese economic indicators will also be released this week, including industrial production and retail trade. Although there has been some volatility in industrial activity, survey evidence shows that business attitudes are improving in the manufacturing sector. Consumers remain under pressure, but this could continue if earnings post further gains. Meanwhile, inflation data will be the main focus for Euro investors, but we expect there to be little progress on the price front for the Eurozone. As a result we expect EUR/JPY to trade even lower this week.
Important Information
This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).
Dogecoin’s performance and staying power across multiple market cycles suggest it is not “just another one of those memecoins”.
Over the past decade, DOGE has outperformed even Bitcoin, delivering over 133,000% in returns, nearly 1,000x BTC’s gains in the same period. Despite deep drawdowns during bear markets, Dogecoin has shown remarkable structural resilience.
Following each major rally, it has consistently formed higher lows, a pattern of long-term appreciation and compounding strength.
Historically, Dogecoin has closely mirrored Bitcoin’s movements, often peaking a few weeks after. While 2024 saw Bitcoin dominate headlines following landmark ETF approvals, DOGE still followed its trajectory, though it has yet to stage its typical delayed breakout.
As macro uncertainty continues to fade and momentum returns to the market, retail participation is likely to accelerate, setting up conditions in which Dogecoin has historically thrived.
At the same time, regulatory clarity around Dogecoin has improved. The SEC recently confirmed that most memecoins are not considered securities, comparing them to collectibles. Additionally, they clarified that proof-of-work rewards, like those earned from mining DOGE, also fall outside that scope. These developments further legitimize Dogecoin’s role in the ecosystem, potentially setting the stage for its next paw up, especially as it now holds a firm base around $0.17, nearly 3x its pre-rally level before reaching a new all-time high in the last cycle.
In addition to its long-term performance, Dogecoin stands out as an asset that behaves asymmetrically, offering investors a rare source of uncorrelated returns across both traditional and crypto portfolios. With an average correlation of just 15% to major assets, DOGE’s price action remains largely detached from broader macroeconomic trends, reinforcing its value as a true diversification tool.
Dogecoin demonstrates significant independence within the crypto market, with its correlation to Bitcoin at only 31% and to Ethereum at 37%. This divergence stems from unique capital flow dynamics, where higher-beta assets like DOGE tend to rally after blue-chip crypto assets reach major milestones.
While Bitcoin slowly evolves into a digital store of value and Ethereum powers decentralized infrastructure, Dogecoin remains largely a cultural asset, thriving on narrative momentum and crowd psychology, offering explosive upside when risk appetite surges.
For investors seeking an upside without mirroring the behavior of core holdings, Dogecoin offers a compelling case. Its ability to decouple from market trends while tapping into more speculative surges makes it a powerful, though unconventional, addition to a portfolio with wildcard potential.
Research Newsletter
Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com
Disclaimer
The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.
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