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All Eyes on the Federal Reserve
ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly All Eyes on the Federal Reserve
Tin prices rebound from six year low.
Chinese bourses climb on stimulus hopes.
EURJPY in focus as BOJ meets ahead of Eurozone inflation.
The week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting to decide on US rates will not be followed by a press conference. The market will therefore remain very attentive to FOMC member speeches and public engagements to glean any information about the possible path of rate increases this year. As a result, we expect no surprises, which will keep USD gains capped. Elsewhere, continued Greek bailout negotiations will likely weigh on European bourses and keep volatility high. The rising animosity between the Greek Finance Minister and his EU counterparts has increased the risk of an accident in negotiations.
Commodities
Tin prices rebound from six year low. Tin prices witnessed a 3.4% weekly gain, after having declined by 40% since April last year. Tin prices have come under significant pressure following the appreciation of the US Dollar and burgeoning production of tin ore from Myanmar. The sharp increase in price came as the largest tin producer in Indonesia, the world’s top exporter, announced that it would be cutting production in the face of price weakness. In emissions markets, the price of carbon allowances rose 5.5% as progress was made toward relieving the current oversupply of allowances in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS). The conclusion of the US winter and its associated seasonal heating demand weighed on the natural gas price this week. The price fell 5.7% as US working natural gas inventories grew by more than expected, reflecting the absence of significant demand.
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Equities
Chinese bourses climb on stimulus hopes. The MSCI China A Index rallied 5.4% during the week following a reduction of the national reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 1% to 18.5%. Speculation has been growing that Chinese authorities will aggressively support growth targets through monetary stimulus, fuelling bullish sentiment and taking the index to highs not witnessed since 2007. In Europe, equity indices have fallen over the week as concerns grew that Greece will fail to meet its upcoming €780mn debt payment to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) due in May. IMF Director, Christine Lagarde, has made it clear that the international group will not allow Greece to delay these payments, putting greater pressure on the nation to finalise negotiations over economic overhauls and its international bailout. The DAX 30 and FTSE MIB Index have fallen by 2.3% and 1.7% respectively as a result.
Currencies
EURJPY in focus as BOJ meets ahead of Eurozone inflation. The Bank of Japan has appeared to be comfortable with the progress with the inflation outlook, and as such we feel that the upcoming policy meeting will be largely uneventful. The first tendrils of wage growth appear to be starting to take root, in turn helping inflation stabilise around the 2% level, in line with the BOJ target. Alongside CPI, a raft of other Japanese economic indicators will also be released this week, including industrial production and retail trade. Although there has been some volatility in industrial activity, survey evidence shows that business attitudes are improving in the manufacturing sector. Consumers remain under pressure, but this could continue if earnings post further gains. Meanwhile, inflation data will be the main focus for Euro investors, but we expect there to be little progress on the price front for the Eurozone. As a result we expect EUR/JPY to trade even lower this week.
Important Information
This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).
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