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Agriculture In Focus As El Nino Becomes Increasingly Likely
Agriculture In Focus As El Nino Becomes Increasingly Likely. Despite a worsening of the tensions between Russia and the Ukraine, gold ETPs saw outflows last week. However, net flows for the month remain strongly positive as investors remain positioned for a possible deterioration in Eastern Ukraine. While nickel and platinum saw some profit taking in light of recent price rises, with an El Nino event increasingly likely this summer investors favoured diversified agriculture exposure.
Investors seek agricultural exposure ahead of sowing season. ETFS Agriculture (AIGA) recorded US$5mn of inflows last week, the most in 5 weeks, as the probability of an El Nino weather event continues to increase. Last week the Australian Bureau of Meteorology forecasted there is a 70% chance Australia will be affected by this summer for the first time in 4 years. With prices of many agricultural commodities likely to rise as weather extremes disrupt production, investors favoured positions in diversified ETPs. At an individual level, corn and soybeans ETPs saw inflows of US$2.9mn and US$3mn respectively. Corn prices fell almost 6% last week after the USDA improved the outlook for the crop and now expects a 13mn tons surplus in 2014/15.
Profit taking drives US$9mn of outflows from palladium ETPs as price reaches the highest level since August 2011 on geopolitical tension. Meanwhile, despite various attempts being made by producers to find an agreement, the strikes in South Africa are still on-going and have begun to turn violent. While both platinum and palladium prices have been benefiting from the strikes, the palladium price has also been boosted by concerns that Russia may face trade restrictions resulting from its conflict with the Ukraine. With over 40% of world supply of palladium produced in Russia, any restrictions on Russian palladium exports would further constrain an already tight market. Reports on Friday that Russia’s state may be considering buying palladium, if true, would also likely be price supportive.
Gold ETPs see US$18mn of outflows on improved US economic outlook. However, net flows over the past month are positive and stand at around US$73mn as investors remain defensively positioned in light of the risks of a deterioration of the Russia/Ukraine crisis.
Nickel ETPs see over US$6mn of outflows as price plunges 11% in two days. However, most of the outflows were concentrated at the beginning of the week when prices reached a 27-month high on supply restrictions. The nickel price has rallied over 35% since the beginning of the year as an Indonesia’s export ban, coupled with fears of potential sanctions to be imposed on Russia, improved the outlook for the metal. A temporary suspension of production at Vale’s New Caledonia plant further contributed to lift prices at the beginning of the week. However, some investors appear to view the recent jump as excessive and prices corrected towards the end of the week. At the same time, ETFS Zinc (ZINC) saw US$1.7mn of inflows last week, the most in 6 weeks.
Key events to watch this week
This week the focus will likely be on the release of the FOMC minutes from the end of April meeting, as investors will try to assess the likely pace of further tapering and the potential for rate hike. Markit manufacturing PMIs for Germany, the Eurozone and the US will also be coming out this week and could offer an indication of the pace of the recovery in the industrial sector in those countries.
Important Information
This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.
Stablecoins are digital currencies tied to assets like the U.S. dollar, offering the price stability needed for payments. They maintain their peg by being backed 1:1 by their underlying fiat currency, with issuers holding equivalent amounts in cash and cash equivalents, making stablecoins a digital representation of those reserves. Their market has doubled to over $235 billion, with daily usage nearly doubling in two years.
Why are stablecoins making headlines now?
Due to their clear product-market fit and growing mainstream adoption, stablecoins have become a top priority for regulation, with both industry leaders and policymakers calling for swift action.
On April 4, the Securities and Exchange Commission’s Division of Corporation Finance finally clarified that stablecoins are not securities if backed one-for-one by USD or similar assets and used for payments or value storage. These “Covered Stablecoins” are not marketed as investments, lack profit incentives, and include protections like reserves, making securities law registration unnecessary for issuance or redemption.
The GENIUS Act, introduced in February and advanced by the U.S. Senate Banking Committee in March, marks a major step toward creating a clear legal framework for stablecoin issuance and oversight. This clarity is driving momentum as Fidelity is set to launch its own stablecoin, and Bank of America is preparing to follow it once legislation is finalized.
Globally, the European Union’s Markets in Crypto Assets (MiCA) framework has already come into effect, reinforcing a broader shift toward formal integration of stablecoins into traditional finance. These developments reflect a growing consensus that stablecoins are emerging as essential infrastructure for global payments, treasury management, and digital asset adoption.
What are the benefits of stablecoins?
Stablecoins are digital currencies designed for fast, low-cost, and stable transactions. Since their launch in 2014, they’ve become a go-to tool for online payments, especially cross-border transfers. As they’re pegged to stable assets like the U.S. dollar or euro, they avoid the wild price swings seen in other cryptocurrencies.
They’re accessible to anyone with internet, making them especially valuable in regions with high inflation or limited banking access, like Argentina or Turkey.
With some built on public blockchains, stablecoins offer transparency, letting users track transfers and supply in real time. For institutions, they also simplify treasury management by acting as efficient digital cash that can be deployed instantly.
Who are the major players in the stablecoin race?
Tether (USDT) and Circle (USDC), the two largest stablecoin issuers, collectively hold over $204 billion in U.S. Treasuries, making them the 14th largest holders globally. Their combined treasury holdings surpass those of entire nations, including Norway and Brazil.
USDT leads with $144 billion in circulation; USDC, backed by Coinbase and known for compliance, has become a trusted digital dollar across global finance.
Why stablecoins matter: A revenue engine for blockchains
Stablecoins generate steady revenue for blockchains like Ethereum and Solana by driving transaction fees with each transfer. With trillions in annual volume, they help sustain network activity beyond speculation.
On Ethereum, for example, USDT and USDC transactions are major contributors to daily gas fees. Year to date, Tether ranks #3 and USDC ranks #5 in terms of total gas consumed. Tether and Circle also dominate daily transaction activity on Ethereum, averaging approximately 12 million and 6 million transactions per day, respectively, making them the top two entities on the network by daily transaction count.
Meanwhile, on Solana, stablecoin activity has surged, helping sustain validator rewards and strengthen protocol economics. In addition to the mainstream utility, stablecoins represent reliable, protocol-level cash flow, making them crypto’s killer use case.
Research Newsletter
Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com
Disclaimer
The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.
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