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Above-target inflation will be supportive for gold and silver

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8 år sedan

den

17 juli, 2017

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ETF Securities Commodity Research: Above-target inflation will be supportive for gold and silver

Highlights

An upside surprise in US inflation will drive gold higher by the end of this year, before paring gains by Q2 2018.
We expect silver to outpace gold, rising 13% by end of Q2 2018, bringing the elevated gold to silver ratio down closer to its long-term average.
Downside risks in both metals will be limited by the gradual nature of Federal Reserve policy changes.

In this note we provide an update to our gold and silver forecasts using our in-house modelsi. Our gold model has four key inputs: US inflation rates, US nominal 10-year government bond yields, US dollar exchange rate and speculative positioning in gold futures. Our silver model uses our gold price forecast in combination with drivers of physical demand and supply silver.

Base case for gold: largely sideways

We expect gold to rise to US$1260/oz by year-end and then decline to US$1230 by Q2 2018. It is largely an upside surprise in inflation that will drive the price of gold higher. Rising interest rates will cap gains. Downside pressure on gold will be limited by the gradual nature of rate increases.

(click to enlarge)

Fed tightening continues…

We believe that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise interest rates once more in 2017 and reduce the size of its balance sheet by allowing securities it holds to mature without reinvesting proceeds. The Fed will continue to tighten policy in 2018 with a combination of a rate increase and further balance sheet reduction in the first half of the year.

US nominal 10-year yields are likely to rise to 2.8% by the end of this year and 3.2% by mid 2018 from 2.4% at the moment as a result of Fed tightening. We expect the yield curve to flatten less than in normal rate-tightening cycles because part of the tightening is targeted at the longer end of the curve (i.e. the balance sheet shrinking due to the Fed not reinvesting maturing bonds).

…but real interest rates to remain subdued

However, we believe that inflation will rise above 2%, dampening the increase in real interest rates. Strength in the labour market has not translated in higher wages yet, but we believe it will do. The Congressional Budget Office’s estimate of the long-term natural rate of unemployment is 4.7%. With the current unemployment rate at 4.4%, we should start to see inflation rise. We expect CPI inflation of 2.3% by year-end and 2.5% by Q2 2018.

US Dollar to appreciate

Rising US interest rates and widening interest rate differentials are likely to push the trade-weighted dollar up by 3% by year-end and 6% by Q2 2018. A US Dollar appreciation will be negative for the gold price.

Speculative positioning to remain elevated by historic standards

Investment in gold is often a gauge of investor anxiety. While we think that some of the key risks around the rise of populism in Europe have eased, a number of other risks are present and investors are likely to seek hedges in the form of gold. Some of these risks include (but are obviously not limited to):

Continued sabre rattling between nuclear powers of US and North Korea
Rising tensions in the Middle East as Qatar fails to bow to its neighbours demands
A surge in trade protectionism as US follows through with recent threats

To be clear, we don’t expect a full-scale war as a base case scenario, but the presence of these risks will weigh on investors minds. We expect speculative positioning in gold futures to remain around 120k contracts net long, somewhat higher than the long-term average of 89k, but significantly below the post- Brexit high of 348k in July 2017.

Alternative scenarios

The following table summarises alternative scenarios for gold in Q2 2018.

(click to enlarge)

In the bear case for gold, the Fed becomes more hawkish, driving rates up more aggressively and shrinks its balance sheet quicker. Given typical lags, inflation will not have fallen below 2% by that time. Subdued interest in gold will drive speculative positioning down to 40k contracts net long.

In the bull case for gold, the Fed gets complacent in tightening policy as it waits for further confirmation that the recovery is progressing. Inflation runs higher at 3.1%. Speculative positioning in gold jumps up to 200k contracts net long as investors become concerned about a disorderly unwind after a protracted period of loose policy.

Silver to outperform gold

We expect silver to rise to US$18.70/oz by year-end before easing to US$18.10 by Q2 2018.
Silver has a strong relationship with gold with nearly an 80% price correlation with the metal. However, silver has more attributes of a ‘regular’ commodity than gold in that physical demand and supply has more influence on its price.

In our model for silver, an increase in the global purchasing managers indices (PMI) acts as a proxy for industrial demand growth. We have seen that the global PMI has plateaued in recent months after reaching a five-year high earlier this year. We expect a modest decline as emerging market countries continue to place a drag on the global index.

As a proxy for supply we look at mine investment. As 75% of silver comes as a by-product of mining for other metals we look at aggregate mining capex across the top 100 metal miners. Mining capex has been declining sharply. Looking at the top 100 miners, capex has declined by 23% over the past year. Six months ago the year-on-year drop was measured as much as 27%.

As another proxy for supply we use exchange inventory of silver. Increases in exchange inventory indicate that more of the metal is readily available. Silver exchange inventory has been elevated most of this year, but we assume it will come down to levels seen a year-ago after a sustained mining supply deficit in silver.

(click to enlarge)

Relative prices closer to normal

The stronger growth in silver prices should see a correction in the elevated gold-to-silver ratio that we have seen in the past year. From today’s prices, gold is expected to be broadly flat by Q2 2018 while silver will gain close to 13%.

(click to enlarge)

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”).

Liknande ämnen:ETF Securities Gold inflation Silver

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BJL8 ETF ger exponering mot Europas försvarsindustri

Publicerad

49 minuter sedan

den

9 juli, 2025

Redaktionen

BNP Paribas Easy Bloomberg Europe Defense UCITS ETF Acc (BJL8 ETF) med ISIN LU3047998896, syftar till att följa Bloomberg Europe Defense Select-indexet. Bloomberg Europe Defense Select-indexet följer utvecklingen för europeiska företag som är verksamma inom militär- eller försvarsindustrin.

Den börshandlade fondens totala kostnadskvot (TER) uppgår till 0,18 % per år. BNP Paribas Easy Bloomberg Europe Defense UCITS ETF Acc är den billigaste och största ETF:en som följer Bloomberg Europe Defense Select-indexet. ETFen replikerar utvecklingen för det underliggande indexet genom fullständig replikering (genom att köpa alla indexkomponenter). Utdelningarna i ETFen ackumuleras och återinvesteras.

Den börshandlade fonden lanserades den 19 maj 2025 och har sitt säte i Luxemburg.

Handla BJL8 ETF

BNP Paribas Easy Bloomberg Europe Defense UCITS ETF Acc (BJL8 ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel Nordnet, SAVR, DEGIRO och Avanza.

Börs	Valuta	Kortnamn
XETRA	EUR	BJL8

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Defence and AI dominate as European Thematic ETF flows hit record $8.73 billion H1 2025

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21 timmar sedan

den

8 juli, 2025

Redaktionen

• Top Performer: Defence (+$7.87 billion)

• Emerging Themes: Cybersecurity (+$318 million), Uranium (+$253 million)

European thematic UCITS ETFs posted a dramatic resurgence in the first half of 2025, with net inflows of $8.73 billion year-to-date, according to ARK Invest Europe’s latest quarterly update detailing H1 2025 European thematic ETF flows.

The turnaround marks a decisive reversal from the muted flows of 2024 ($308 million net outflows for the whole of 2024), as investors rotate back into forward-looking, innovation-driven themes with clearer earnings visibility.

Defence remains the dominant thematic allocation, capturing $7.87 billion in combined net inflows between Global ($4.81 billion) and European ($3.05 billion) defence ETFs underscoring its evolution from a tactical trade to a structural portfolio allocation. Maintaining its position as the defining technological theme, AI ETFs saw $904 million in net inflows, with investor appetite fuelled by relentless innovation in large language models, robotics, and autonomous systems.

In the same period, Cybersecurity ETFs continued to rebuild momentum after significant outflows in 2024 ($311 million net outflows for H1 2024), drawing $318 million, reflecting growing investor conviction in cybersecurity as a structural necessity amid rising digital threats.

Clean Energy ETFs saw outflows of $307 million. As policy momentum stalls in key markets, investors are increasingly selective within the energy transition space. Capital is rotating toward subsectors with clearer economic moats, such as nuclear and grid infrastructure. Supporting this sentiment, Uranium ETFs rank fifth at $253 million, reflecting growing investor interest in the nuclear sector as a potential solution to global energy needs.

Healthcare Innovation ETFs recorded net outflows of $279 million. The drawdown reveals investor caution around legacy biotech firms with uncertain drug pipelines and reimbursement risks. Interest is shifting toward AI-driven healthcare platforms offering faster innovation cycles and more scalable business models.

Electric Vehicles and Battery Tech ETFs saw net outflows of $203 million as investor enthusiasm cools amid subsidy rollbacks and plateauing EV demand in major markets. Persistent concerns around battery raw materials and production bottlenecks have further weighed on the theme.

Rahul Bhushan says, “After a cautious 2024, it’s evident that investors are re-engaging with innovation themes that offer clearer earnings visibility and resilience in an increasingly complex macro landscape. We’re seeing investor conviction in megatrends with structural tailwinds, particularly defence, AI, and energy security. Thematics are no longer just tactical bets, they’re core strategic exposures.”

2025/2024 Comparative Study

Thematics are back

After a weak 2024, investor appetite for thematic risk has returned in force:

• H1 2025 total net inflows: +$8.74B

• That’s a sharp reversal from -$791M in H2 2024 and only +$483M in H1 2024

• The rotation is clear: capital is moving back into forward-looking themes with stronger earnings visibility.

Defence is now a structural trade

• Global and Europe Defence saw a combined $7.87B in inflows in H1 2025 and $1.59B in June alone.

• This continues a multi-quarter surge as geopolitical tensions, rising military budgets, and renewed industrial policy drive long-term allocations.

• Defence is no longer a tactical trade—it’s becoming a core exposure.

AI inflows normalise, but conviction remains

• Artificial Intelligence ETFs drew $904M in H1 2025, following $1.47B in H1 2024.

• Inflows may be slowing, but investor conviction is holding firm.

• With earnings delivery now catching up to narrative, AI remains a centrepiece of thematic portfolios.

Cybersecurity shows signs of stabilisation

After brutal outflows in 2024 (-$311M H1, -$260M H2), cybersecurity ETFs finally saw inflows:

• $318M in H1 2025, including $67M in June.

• This rebound suggests investors are once again prioritising digital resilience in an AI-driven world.

Infrastructure themes are quietly regaining traction

• Global and Europe Infrastructure ETFs pulled in $284M in H1 2025, following modest gains in H2 2024.

• Infrastructure is benefiting from government stimulus, defence modernisation, and the reshoring trade.

Uranium’s steady climb continues

• $253M in H1 2025, after $216M in H2 2024 and $67M in June alone.

• Indeed, the $67M in June alone nearly matches the $66M pulled in during the entirety of H1 2024.

• A rare clean energy theme that’s bucking the downtrend, reflecting growing recognition of nuclear as a pragmatic decarbonisation solution.

Clean Energy sentiment is so bad, it might be investable

• Outflows across all periods: -$307M (H1 2025), -$505M (H2 2024), -$409M (H1 2024)

• June 2025: A mere -$8M

• Sentiment is arguably as negative as it’s ever been—yet structural drivers remain in place. The setup for a contrarian rebound is building.

About ARK Invest Europe

ARK Invest International Ltd (”ARK Invest Europe”) is a specialist thematic ETF issuer offering investors access to a unique blend of active and index strategies focused on disruptive innovation and sustainability. Established following the acquisition of Rize ETF in September 2023 by ARK Investment Management LLC, ARK Invest Europe builds on over 40 years of expertise in identifying and investing in innovations that align financial performance with positive global impact.

Through its innovation pillar and the ”ARK” range of ETFs, ARK Invest focuses on companies leading and benefiting from transformative cross-sector innovations, including robotics, energy storage, multiomic sequencing, artificial intelligence, and blockchain technology. Meanwhile, its sustainability pillar, represented by the ”Rize by ARK Invest” range of ETFs, prioritises investment opportunities that reconcile growth with sustainability, advancing solutions that fuel prosperity while promoting environmental and social progress.

Headquartered in London, United Kingdom, ARK Invest Europe is dedicated to empowering investors with purposeful investment opportunities. For more information, please visit https://europe.ark-funds.com/

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UBS Asset Management lanserar sin första aktivt förvaltade ETF

Publicerad

22 timmar sedan

den

8 juli, 2025

Redaktionen

UBS Asset Management planerar att erbjuda ett utbud av aktiva ETFer som utnyttjar deras differentierade räntebärande kapacitet, följt senare av en serie avkastningsfokuserade ETFer med optionsöverlägg.
Den första som lanseras idag ger tillgång till den aktiva förvaltningsexpertisen hos UBS AMs Credit Investments Group (CIG), en av de ledande förvaltarna av collateralized loan obligations globalt.
Den nya UBS EUR AAA CLO UCITS ETF erbjuder investerare exponering mot den högsta kreditkvaliteten inom CLO-strukturen i ett likvidt och kostnadseffektivt omslag.

UBS Asset Management (UBS AM) tillkännager idag lanseringen av sin första aktivt förvaltade ETF, som ger kostnadseffektiv exponering mot de högst rankade trancherna av marknaden för collateralized loan obligation (”CLO”). UBS EUR AAA CLO UCITS ETF kombinerar den aktiva förvaltningsexpertisen hos UBS AMs Credit Investments Group med skalan hos deras väletablerade ETF-erbjudande.

André Mueller, chef för kundtäckning på UBS Asset Management, sa: ”CLOer erbjuder stark avkastningspotential och diversifieringsfördelar. Att navigera på denna marknad kräver dock förståelse för CLO-strukturer, regleringar och riskerna i denna sektor. Vi har kombinerat mer än 20 års ETF-innovation med expertisen hos vår Credit Investments Group för att effektivt och transparent tillhandahålla de högst rankade CLO-värdepapperen. Den aktiva förvaltningsdelen erbjuder kostnadseffektiv exponering med potential att överträffa.”

John Popp, chef för Credit Investments Group på UBS Asset Management, tillade: ”Vi är glada att kunna erbjuda vår expertis inom hantering av CLO-trancher i över två decennier till en bredare investerarbas. Vårt teams djupa kreditkunskap och meritlista genom flera kreditcykler gör oss väl positionerade för att tillhandahålla övertygande investeringar. På dagens marknad anser vi att AAA CLO-skulder erbjuder en attraktiv risk-avkastningsprofil. Att erbjuda denna investering via en ETF kommer att utöka tillgången till denna växande marknad.”

Den aktiva UBS EUR AAA CLO UCITS ETF* erbjuder tillgång till den växande CLO-marknaden genom en likvid och kostnadseffektiv ETF-struktur, vilket innebär:

Förbättrad avkastningspotential med strukturellt skydd – AAA CLOer erbjuder högre avkastning jämfört med liknande rankade investeringar, med strukturella egenskaper som har testats genom cykler, utan fallissemang ens under perioder av ekonomisk kris**
Portföljdiversifiering – tillgångsslagets rörliga ränta ger betydande diversifieringspotential i samband med en bredare ränteportfölj
Aktiv fördel – Credit Investments Group, en av de främsta förvaltarna av säkerställda låneförpliktelser globalt, hanterar dynamiskt risk och avkastning för att fånga marknadsmöjligheter
ETF-effektivitet – ETF-strukturen möjliggör likviditet och kostnadseffektiv tillgång till denna komplexa tillgångsklass

*Fonden är registrerad för försäljning i Österrike, Schweiz, Tyskland, Danmark, Spanien, Finland, Frankrike, Irland, Italien, Liechtenstein, Luxemburg, Nederländerna, Norge och Sverige.

**S&P Global Ratings, “Default, Transition, and Recovery: 2023 Annual Global Leveraged Loan CLO Default and Rating Transition Study”, 27 juni 2024

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