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Timely and concise insights on Bitcoin & Cryptoasset Markets

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• Growing Mainstream Adoption of Digital Assets: Institutional investors and major asset managers are increasingly incorporating digital assets like Bitcoin into their portfolios, as evidenced by recent filings and the launch of Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. Despite their current small market share, these investments reflect a broader trend towards mainstream acceptance

• Growing Mainstream Adoption of Digital Assets: Institutional investors and major asset managers are increasingly incorporating digital assets like Bitcoin into their portfolios, as evidenced by recent filings and the launch of Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. Despite their current small market share, these investments reflect a broader trend towards mainstream acceptance

• Impact on Portfolio Performance: The inclusion of Bitcoin in portfolio optimizations, using strategies such as Maximum Sharpe Ratio and Risk Parity, has shown to improve the risk-adjusted returns compared to traditional portfolios. Portfolios optimized with Bitcoin not only offer higher returns for the additional risk taken but also present a wider range of efficient risk-return combinations

• Optimal Allocation Recommendations: Empirical studies suggest that even a small allocation to digital assets, specifically between 2% to 3% in broader asset mixes and up to 4% to 6% in more focused digital asset portfolios, significantly enhances portfolio performance without adversely impacting overall risk profiles

Gradually, then suddenly, as they say, digital assets are becoming mainstream.

The biggest asset managers in the world have launched spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US this year and adoption among institutional investors is rising rapidly.

Major financial institutions like Franklin Templeton themselves have just recently disclosed significant investments into Bitcoin ETFs via their latest 13F filings.

Institutional hedge funds that manage money for Ivy League university endowments have disclosed multi-million Dollar holdings. Stanford university’s Blyth Fund has recently disclosed that they hold around 7% allocation in Bitcoin ETFs.

Nonetheless, at the time of writing, US Bitcoin ETFs only account for approximately 0.6% of the overall size of the US ETF market based on data provided by ICI.

In Europe, Bitcoin ETPs also only comprise a tiny fraction of the 11 trn EUR UCITS market of only 0.05%, according to our calculations based on Bloomberg data.

In general, we expect the relative size of digital assets to increase further as even small allocations to digital assets are bound to increase portfolio risk-adjusted returns significantly as demonstrated in our latest deep dive on Bitcoin.

But what is the optimal allocation to Bitcoin and digital assets in general?

What is the optimal allocation to digital assets?

Most empirical portfolio studies usually look at how a classical 60/40 portfolio comprising of 60% allocation in stocks and 40% allocation in bonds responds to a gradual increase in digital asset allocation.

In our previous digital asset study, we did a similar exercise by investigating the effect of increases in digital asset allocation on overall portfolio risk and return metrics.

Since digital assets generally exhibit a higher risk-adjusted return (“Sharpe Ratio”) than other traditional asset classes, a marginal increase in allocation usually leads to an increase in overall portfolio risk-adjusted returns.

However, most institutional asset managers don’t employ a 60/40 portfolio in the first place because of high portfolio volatility and the dominance of the equity allocation for the whole portfolio’s risk-return profile.

In fact, most institutional asset managers in practice allocate based on optimized risk metrics such as portfolio Sharpe Ratio or portfolio volatility which is why we perform a similar exercise here.

In a first step, we looked at optimized multiasset portfolios comprising of global stocks (MSCI World AC), global bonds (Bloomberg Global Aggregate USD-hedged), and commodities (Bloomberg Commodity Index).

More specifically, we optimized these portfolios based on the following approaches:
• Minimum Variance/Volatility
• Maximum Sharpe Ratio
• Equal risk contribution (Risk parity)

The Minimum Variance approach tries to minimize the average portfolio volatility.
The Maximum Sharpe Ratio approach tries to maximize the ratio between average portfolio return (minus a risk-free return) and the corresponding average volatility. The Equal risk contribution or Risk Parity approach varies the respective portfolio weights until every asset has an identical relative contribution to the overall portfolio volatility.

In a second step, we added Bitcoin to the set of potential assets into the optimization. Our period of investigation (July 2010 – May 2024) was constrained by the fact that reliable market prices for Bitcoin only exist since 2010 as it is still a relatively young asset.

Here are the results for the different optimizations. The upper panel excludes Bitcoin while the lower panel includes Bitcoin in the optimization:

Several observations are in order:

Firstly, the minimum variance approach excludes Bitcoin completely since Bitcoin generally exhibits a higher level of volatility than the other assets.

Secondly, the maximum Sharpe Ratio approach excludes commodities in the traditional portfolio but includes Bitcoin in the new portfolio. The Bitcoin allocation is made largely at the expense of the stock allocation.

Lastly, the risk parity approach also includes Bitcoin at the expense of all other asset classes.

Furthermore, a comparison between the historical performances of the traditional portfolios that exclude Bitcoin and those that include Bitcoin reveals that the max Sharpe Ratio and the Risk Parity (ERC) portfolio were able to significantly outperform the Minimum Variance portfolio which didn’t allocate to Bitcoin at all.

It is also important to highlight that the Risk Parity portfolio with Bitcoin even exhibited a smaller maximum drawdown than the Minimum Variance portfolio without Bitcoin. In other words, the increase in portfolio volatility was largely due to an increase in positive upside volatility.

Moreover, investors are over-proportionately rewarded with higher returns for unit of additional risk as the risk-adjusted returns (“Sharpe Ratio”) increase significantly by adding Bitcoin.

The Sharpe Ratios for optimized portfolios with Bitcoin are even significantly higher than for optimized portfolios without Bitcoin.

In fact, by including Bitcoin and digital assets into their portfolio optimization, the universe of potential multiasset portfolios increases vastly.

Asset managers are not only enabled to provide investors with more efficient portfolios, i.e. higher risk-adjusted returns, but also provide investors with a much larger set of risk-return combinations compared to traditional portfolios that only include stocks, bonds, and commodities.

So far so good. What about other digital assets?

We also applied the same portfolio optimization approaches to a basket of the top 20 digital assets based on the MSCI Global Digital Assets Select 20 Capped Index.

–> The optimal % allocation is even higher in case of the Maximum Sharpe Ratio and Risk Parity portfolio optimization.

It is important to note that the period of investigation (November 2019 – May 2024) is much smaller due to the fact that younger digital assets within the top 20 digital assets like Solana or Ethereum have a smaller track record than Bitcoin.

All in all, the abovementioned results imply that even a small allocation to digital assets can have very positive effects on risk-adjusted returns without compromising the risk characteristics of the portfolios.

While highly risk-averse investors should probably avoid digital assets, the optimal allocation based on the Max Sharpe Ratio and Risk Parity approach appears to be between 2% and 3% for the full sample with bitcoin and between 4% and 6% for the smaller sample with a basket of the top 20 digital assets.

The results generally support our previous findings that we presented here.

Most portfolio optimization approaches also include digital assets within the optimal portfolio allocation which demonstrates that any modern portfolio approach that doesn’t include digital assets like Bitcoin is probably sub-optimal.

We recommend that agile asset managers familiarise themselves with this emerging asset class for the benefit of their clients and to remain competitive.
Bottom Line

• Growing Mainstream Adoption of Digital Assets: Institutional investors and major asset managers are increasingly incorporating digital assets like Bitcoin into their portfolios, as evidenced by recent filings and the launch of Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. Despite their current small market share, these investments reflect a broader trend towards mainstream acceptance

• Impact on Portfolio Performance: The inclusion of Bitcoin in portfolio optimizations, using strategies such as Maximum Sharpe Ratio and Risk Parity, has shown to improve the risk-adjusted returns compared to traditional portfolios. Portfolios optimized with Bitcoin not only offer higher returns for the additional risk taken but also present a wider range of efficient risk-return combinations

• Optimal Allocation Recommendations: Empirical studies suggest that even a small allocation to digital assets, specifically between 2% to 3% in broader asset mixes and up to 4% to 6% in more focused digital asset portfolios, significantly enhances portfolio performance without adversely impacting overall risk profiles

To read our Crypto Market Compass in full, please click the button below:

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Crypto Market Espresso | 23. May 2024

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• The SEC has just approved the spot Ethereum ETFs in the US - we expect approximately 1.65 bn USD potential net inflows into US Ethereum ETFs 3 months after trading launch

• The SEC has just approved the spot Ethereum ETFs in the US – we expect approximately 1.65 bn USD potential net inflows into US Ethereum ETFs 3 months after trading launch

• If we assumed the historical ”performance multiplier” of 6.15 to Ethereum flows to be true, then a ~15% increase in global Ethereum ETF AuM would be associated with ~92% performance

• The approval marks a significant shift in sentiment within the SEC and among US regulators in general but US investors still received inferior investment vehicles compared to European vehicles

6.5 years

The SEC has just approved spot Ethereum ETFs for trading in the US.
Although the exact date of trading launch is unknown and could take a few months, this approval marks a significant shift in sentiment within the SEC and US regulators in general.

The Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) was launched on 14 December 2017. It was the first investment vehicle that allowed professional investors to gain exposure to the second largest cryptoasset – Ethereum.

Nearly 6.5 years later, US investors finally have a more efficient investment vehicle to participate in Ethereum’s performance.

US ETF issuers made last-minute adjustments to their 19b-4 filings to meet the final deadline for the SEC’s decision on VanEck’s spot Ethereum ETF application, which was due on 23 May.

Bloomberg ETF analysts had previously commented that approval could come as early as Wednesday this week, beating consensus expectations for a later approval date. Other applicants included the same companies that applied for a spot bitcoin ETF previously, such as iShares and Fidelity.

The sudden increase in approval odds caught many by surprise, as Bloomberg ETF analysts unexpectedly raised their approval odds from 25% to 75% after the SEC asked exchanges to expedite their 19b-4 filings. Meanwhile, the odds of approval by the end of May on popular betting sites also jumped to over 50%, up from 10% just a few days earlier.

This unexpected rise in approval odds also surprised Ethereum futures short sellers, causing short liquidations in Ethereum futures contracts to surge to their highest level since March.

This caused the price of Ethereum to jump more than 10% in a matter of hours,
reversing much of its underperformance against bitcoin this year.

So, the market had already started to anticipate a potential approval.

But what’s next?

How many fund flows should we expect?

Many market observers have tried to guide down expectations for an Ethereum ETF trading launch.

The reason is that the Ethereum spot ETF approval is coming after a bonanza in fund flows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs which is why Bloomberg ETF analysts expect only around 10%-15% of Bitcoin ETF flows to flow into Ethereum ETFs.

At the time of writing, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have already seen cumulative net fund inflows in the amount of +13.2 bn USD since trading launch on the 11th of January 2024.

12.5% of that amount would imply approximately 1.65 bn USD potential net inflows into US Ethereum ETFs.

This amount would currently be equivalent to ~15% of current global Ethereum ETP assets-under-management (AuM) or around 0.7% of Ethereum’s realized cap, i.e. the amount invested on-chain.

What could be the price effect of this approval?

Nonetheless, this amount of capital could potentially still have a very significant impact on Ethereum’s performance going forward.

The reason is that Ethereum’s performance has shown a significantly higher sensitivity to global ETP flows than Bitcoin in the past.

While Bitcoin’s performance sensitivity to global ETP flows was around ~1.0, Ethereum’s performance has shown an average sensitivity of around 6.15 to global ETP flows in the past.

In other words, an increase of global ETH ETP AuM by 1% per week was associated with an average ETH/USD performance of 6.15% per week.

Now, if we assumed the abovementioned ”multiplier” of 6.15 to be true, then a ~15% increase in global Ethereum ETF AuM would be associated with ~92% performance!

That being said, the sensitivity of Ethereum’s performance to weekly ETP flows can vary significantly over time and has been around ~10.5 more recently.

As a caveat, keep in mind that correlation does not imply causation and that higher net inflows could possibly not cause increases in price.

More specifically, we estimate that global Ethereum ETP flows could only explain around 19.6% in the variation of Ethereum over the past 6 months. So, other factors such as macro or coin-specific factors have played a larger role.

What’s special about these Ethereum ETFs?

The approval marks a significant shift in sentiment within the SEC and US regulators more general. The recent passing of the “crypto bill” in the US senate has demonstrated that there is bipartisan consensus on the importance of cryptoassets for the United States.

The fact that the Trump campaign has recently started accepting crypto donations for campaign finance speaks volumes in this regard as Trump had personally shown a rather anti-crypto stance in the past.

Thus, viewed more broadly within the context of recent domestic political developments in the US, this approval could be evidence of a more mainstream acceptance of cryptoassets as a legitimate asset class.

However, US investors still receive a suboptimal investment vehicle for Ethereum:
The creation-redemption mechanism is still not done in kind and staking has not been allowed within the filings. Thus, US investors won’t be able to fully capture Ethereum’s total return profile via staking returns that currently amount to around 3.2% p.a.

European investors are once again better served with products that allow investors to participate in these total returns such as the ETC Group Ethereum Staking ETP.

Bottom Line

• The SEC has just approved the spot Ethereum ETFs in the US – we expect approximately 1.65 bn USD potential net inflows into US Ethereum ETFs 3 months after trading launch

• If we assumed the historical ”performance multiplier” of 6.15 to Ethereum flows to be true, then a ~15% increase in global Ethereum ETF AuM would be associated with ~92% performance

• The approval marks a significant shift in sentiment within the SEC and among US regulators in general but US investors still received inferior investment vehicles compared to European vehicles

This is not investment advice. Capital at risk. Read the full disclaimer

© ETC Group 2019-2024 | All rights reserved

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Ny aktiv ETF från First Trust på Xetra

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Från och med går handlas en ny börshandlad fond, en aktiv ETF från First Trust på Xetra och via handelsplatsen Börse Frankfurt.

Från och med går handlas en ny börshandlad fond, en aktiv ETF från First Trust på Xetra och via handelsplatsen Börse Frankfurt.

First Trust Vest U.S. Equity Moderate Buffer UCITS ETF – May (GMAY) driver en aktivt förvaltad investeringsstrategi med syftet att spåra resultatet för S&P 500 Index upp till ett fast uppsidatak. Samtidigt strävar fonden efter att minimera förluster (buffert) för de första 15-procentiga kursfallen i slutet av den definierade målperioden på ett kalenderår. Investeringsförvaltaren investerar hela tillgången i FLEX-optioner, som både säljs och köpoptioner.

Buffertstrategin börjar och slutar i maj varje år och balanseras sedan om genom att fonden investerar i ett nytt paket med FLEX-optioner. Taket beräknas på första referensdatum beroende på marknadsförhållanden, medan bufferten alltid ligger oförändrad på 15 procent. Det aktuella taket och buffertdetaljerna finns tillgängliga på First Trusts webbplats.

NamnISINAvgiftUtdelningspolicy
First Trust Vest U.S. Equity Moderate Buffer UCITS ETF – MayIE000P0FL8E30,85Ackumulerande

Produktutbudet i Deutsche Börses XTF-segment omfattar för närvarande totalt 2 163 ETFer. Med detta urval och en genomsnittlig månatlig handelsvolym på cirka 14 miljarder euro är Xetra den ledande handelsplatsen för ETFer i Europa.

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JSUD ETF köper amerikanska företag som följer Parisavtalet

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JPMorgan US Research Enhanced Index Equity SRI Paris Aligned UCITS ETF USD (dist) (JSUD ETF), med ISIN IE0002UMVXQ1 är en aktivt förvaltad ETF.

JPMorgan US Research Enhanced Index Equity SRI Paris Aligned UCITS ETF USD (dist) (JSUD ETF), med ISIN IE0002UMVXQ1 är en aktivt förvaltad ETF.

JP Morgan US Research Enhanced Index Equity SRI Paris Aligned Strategy investerar i amerikanska företag. ETF strävar efter att generera en högre avkastning än MSCI USA SRI EU PAB Overlay ESG Custom-index. Aktierna som ingår filtreras enligt ESG-kriterier (miljö, social och bolagsstyrning). Dessutom beaktas EU:s direktiv om klimatskydd.

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,20 % p.a. JPMorgan US Research Enhanced Index Equity SRI Paris Aligned UCITS ETF USD (dist) är den billigaste och största ETF som följer JP Morgan US Research Enhanced Index Equity SRI Paris Aligned index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom samplingsteknik (köper ett urval av de mest relevanta indexbeståndsdelarna). Utdelningarna i ETFen delas ut till investerarna (Årligen).

ETF lanserades den 9 augusti 2023 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Investeringsmål

Delfondens mål är att uppnå en långsiktig avkastning som överstiger MSCI USA SRI EU PAB Overlay ESG Custom Index* (”riktmärket”) genom att aktivt investera i huvudsak i en portfölj av amerikanska företag samtidigt som man anpassar sig till målen för Parisavtalet.

Riskprofil

Värdet på aktierelaterade värdepapper kan sjunka såväl som upp som svar på enskilda företags resultat och allmänna marknadsförhållanden, ibland snabbt eller oförutsägbart. Om ett företag går i konkurs eller en liknande finansiell omstrukturering förlorar dess aktier vanligtvis det mesta eller hela sitt värde.

Uteslutning av företag som inte uppfyller vissa kriterier från delfondens investeringsuniversum kan leda till att delfonden presterar annorlunda jämfört med liknande fonder som inte har en sådan policy.

Delfonden strävar efter att ge en avkastning över Benchmark; Delfonden kan dock prestera sämre än jämförelseindexet.

Handla JSUD ETF

JPMorgan US Research Enhanced Index Equity SRI Paris Aligned UCITS ETF USD (dist) (JSUD ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och London Stock Exchange.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
gettexEURJSUD
London Stock ExchangeUSDJSUD
XETRAEURJSUD

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