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ETC Group Crypto Market Compass #35 2024

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Last week, cryptoassets were supported by clear signals for a pivot in Fed monetary policy following dovish remarks by Fed chairman Powell at the recent central bank symposium in Jackson Hole.

• Last week, cryptoassets were supported by clear signals for a pivot in Fed monetary policy following dovish remarks by Fed chairman Powell at the recent central bank symposium in Jackson Hole.

• Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” signals a neutral sentiment at the moment.

• Fed Funds Futures already price in slightly more than 9 cuts à 25 bps each and a terminal rate of 3% which will be reached by the end of 2025, ie markets are already anticipating significant cuts to the Fed Funds target rate.

Editorial Note: ETC Group has been acquired by Bitwise Asset Management as of the 16th of August 2024. Find out more here.


Chart of the Week

Performance

Last week, cryptoassets were supported by clear signals for a pivot in Fed monetary policy following dovish remarks by Fed chairman Powell at the recent central bank symposium in Jackson Hole.

Powell’s comments were dovish across the board and essentially signalled that the Fed can no longer tolerate a deterioration in labour market conditions in favour of maintain price stability, ie lowering inflation. More specifically, the following remarks by Powell were interpreted by markets as a clear signal towards an imminent shift in monetary policy and rate cuts in September:

“The time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.”

Powell’s remarks essentially confirmed what Fed Funds Futures markets have already been anticipating following the capitulation event in early August 2024 – initial rate cuts starting in September. The latest payroll benchmark downward revisions which suggested that past payroll growth was much lower than previously estimated, made the case for rate cuts in September even stronger.

At the time of writing, Fed Funds Futures already price in slightly more than 9 cuts à 25 bps each and a terminal rate of 3% which will be reached by the end of 2025. So, markets are already anticipating significant cuts to the Fed Funds target rate (Chart-of-the-Week).

The big question is whether Fed interest rate cuts could 1. be faster than anticipated, and 2. deeper than anticipated amid an increasingly likely US recession over the coming months?

Only in this kind of scenario, Fed cuts could continue to remain a significant tailwind for markets.

The Fed is essentially following the footsteps of other major central banks such as the ECB or Bank of England that have already commenced their interest rate cutting cycle.

In this context, it is important to highlight that global money supply has recently reached a new all-time high already. Historically speaking, periods of global money supply expansion tend to be bullish for Bitcoin and cryptoassets.

Another important development was the withdrawal of RFK Jr. from the US presidential elections and his personal endorsement of Donald Trump. This has increased the odds of Trump winning the presidency which is generally regarded as a net positive outcome for crypto markets.

However, at the time of writing, betting markets still see Harris in the lead with 50.4% against 47.8% for Trump according to electionbettingodds.com which aggregates betting odds across different providers.

Last week’s recovery in crypto markets was also supported by an acceleration in net inflows into global crypto ETPs that attracted almost 700 mn USD.

However, there was a large divergence between Bitcoin and Ethereum ETP flows which led to a significant underperformance of Ethereum vis-à-vis Bitcoin last week. Risk appetite in altcoins was also somewhat muted due to the arrest of Telegram’s founder Pavel Durov in Paris over the weekend, which led to a strong underperformance of Telegram’s Open Network token TON.

That being said, overall altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin remained relatively resilient despite the abovementioned market developments.

In general, among the top 10 crypto assets, Avalanche, TRON, and Cardano were the relative outperformers.

Overall, altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin remained resilient lately, with 70% of our tracked altcoins managing to outperform Bitcoin on a weekly basis, despite a significant underperformance of Ethereum relative to Bitcoin.

Sentiment

Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” signals a neutral level of sentiment at the moment.

At the moment, 10 out of 15 indicators are above their short-term trend.

Last week, there were significant reversals to the upside in the Altseason index and Crypto Fear & Greed Index.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index currently signals a “Greed” level of sentiment as of this morning.

Performance dispersion among cryptoassets still remains at low levels. This means that altcoins are still very much correlated with the performance of Bitcoin.

Altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin continued to stay high, with 70% of our tracked altcoins outperforming Bitcoin on a weekly basis. However, Ethereum significantly underperformed Bitcoin last week.

In general, increasing (decreasing) altcoin outperformance tends to be a sign of increasing (decreasing) risk appetite within cryptoasset markets and the latest altcoin outperformance signals increasing appetite for risk at the moment.

Meanwhile, sentiment in traditional financial markets as measured by our in-house measure of Cross Asset Risk Appetite (CARA) remains at neutral levels after having recovered sharply from the very low levels observed in early August.

Fund Flows

Fund flows into global crypto ETPs accelerated significantly last week.

Global crypto ETPs saw around +688.5 mn USD in net inflows across all types of cryptoassets which is a significant reversal from the -4.2 mn USD in outflows observed the week prior.

Global Bitcoin ETPs saw significant net inflows of +661.8 mn USD last week, of which +437.3 mn USD in net inflows were related to US spot Bitcoin ETFs alone.

Last week also saw a positive reversal in flows into Hong Kong Bitcoin ETFs with +132.4 mn USD in net inflows.

Outflows from the ETC Group Physical Bitcoin ETP (BTCE) decelerated somewhat last week with net outflows equivalent to -12.5 mn USD and the ETC Group Core Bitcoin ETP (BTC1) also saw minor negative net outflows of -0.8 mn USD.

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) continued to see net outflows, with around -86.5 mn USD last week.

Meanwhile, global Ethereum ETPs continued to see net outflows last week of -21.0 mn USD. US Ethereum spot ETFs saw around -44.5 mn USD in net outflows in aggregate. However, this was mostly related to continuing outflows from the Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) which experienced -118 mn USD in net outflows last week while all other US products have seen +74 mn USD in net inflows.

Hong Kong Ethereum ETFs saw sticky AuM last week (+/- 0 mn USD).

The ETC Group Physical Ethereum ETP (ZETH) saw minor net outflows last week (-0.8 mn USD) while the ETC Group Ethereum Staking ETP (ET32) showed flat AuM last week (+/- 0 mn USD).

In contrast, Altcoin ETPs ex Ethereum experienced positive net flows of around +11.7 mn USD last week.

Besides, Thematic & basket crypto ETPs also saw continued net inflows with around +36.0 mn USD last week. The ETC Group MSCI Digital Assets Select 20 ETP (DA20) saw neither in- nor outflows last week (+/- 0 mn USD).

Meanwhile, global crypto hedge funds increased their market exposure last week to a 3-months high but still remain slightly underweight to Bitcoin. The 20-days rolling beta of global crypto hedge funds’ performance to Bitcoin increased to around 0.92 per yesterday’s close.

On-Chain Data

In general, on-chain metrics imply a strong improvement in relative buying power.

For instance, Bitcoin spot intraday net buying volumes have significantly reversed to the upside. Over the past week, net buying volumes across BTC spot exchanges amounted to around +546 mn USD. They reached a 3-months high on Friday last week due to the acceleration in US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows.

Meanwhile, BTC whales mostly remained on the sidelines. More specifically, BTC whales have transferred around 1.1k BTC off exchange. Whales are defined as network entities that control at least 1,000 BTC. As a result, on-exchange balances have declined over the past week.

It is interesting to highlight that buyers were able to absorb the increasing supply that emanated from continued distribution of bitcoins by the Mt Gox trustee last week who distributed around 1.3k BTC via Bitstamp according to data by Arkham.

Another important market development to highlight was the fee spike on the Bitcoin core network on the 22nd of August as traders rushed to Babylon Labs’ new Bitcoin staking protocol. The staking amount was capped at 1k BTC which is why traders rushed to stake and were willing to pay high transaction fees. As a result, average transaction fees reached 7.2 USD per transaction on the 22nd of August but have now normalised again (0.64 USD per transaction now) according to data provided by Glassnode.

As far as Ethereum is concerned, market sentiment was somewhat burdened by the fact that the Ethereum Foundation distributed around 35k ETH via Kraken and Binance which also contributed to the recent underperformance of Ethereum vis-à-vis Bitcoin.

That being said, overall ETH exchange balances continued to drift lower last week and reached a new multi-year low which still signals an increasing supply deficit for Ethereum.

What is more is that on-chain activity on Ethereum layer 2s such as Base continues to improve significantly. Active addresses on Base have recently surpassed 1 million.

Futures, Options & Perpetuals

Last week, derivatives traders continued to increase their exposure to BTC via futures and perpetuals. More specifically, BTC futures open interest increased by +20k BTC and BTC perpetual open interest increased by +12k BTC.

This happened amid a general ascend in prices which suggests that this increase in open interest was probably related to long open interest. Short liquidations of BTC futures also increased somewhat as bitcoin decisively crossed 60k USD again but remained relatively low compared to the amount of liquidations we saw at the beginning of August.

BTC perpetual funding rates also increased after having remained much of the past week in negative territory.

When the funding rate is positive (negative), long (short) positions periodically pay short (long) positions. A positive funding rate tends to be a sign of bullish sentiment in perpetual futures markets.

The 3-months annualized BTC futures basis rate remained relatively flat compared to the week prior at around 8.7% p.a.

Besides, BTC option open interest increased significantly by around +16k BTC. The significant decline in put-call open interest ratio suggests a net increase in call demand relative puts which is a bullish sign.

was mostly flat last week while the slight decline in put-call open interest ratio suggests a slight net increase in call demand relative puts. The 1-month 25-delta skews for BTC also declined and turned negative suggesting increasing relative demand for call options.

Meanwhile, BTC option implied volatilities mostly went sideways. At the time of writing, implied volatilities of 1-month ATM Bitcoin options are currently at around 51.8% p.a.

Besides, there was a significant development in Ethereum derivatives as well. ETH futures traders apparently piled into short contracts as the 1-month forward contract premium to spot prices on CME Ethereum futures reached the lowest level since December 2022.

This is also consistent with the observation that leveraged funds’ net positioning in Ethereum futures on CME continued to stay near record low levels. At the time of writing, leveraged funds are -30656 contracts net short in Ethereum futures.

These derivative market developments have also likely contributed to the recent underperformance of Ethereum vis-à-vis Bitcoin.


Bottom Line

• Last week, cryptoassets were supported by clear signals for a pivot in Fed monetary policy following dovish remarks by Fed chairman Powell at the recent central bank symposium in Jackson Hole.

• Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” signals a neutral sentiment at the moment.

• Fed Funds Futures already price in slightly more than 9 cuts à 25 bps each and a terminal rate of 3% which will be reached by the end of 2025, ie markets are already anticipating significant cuts to the Fed Funds target rate.


Read the full report including the Cryptoasset Sentiment Index and full chart show in the appendix on our website.

This is not investment advice. Capital at risk. Read the full disclaimer

© ETC Group 2019-2024 | All rights reserved

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Why Bitcoin belongs in your portfolio

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Bitcoin is now worth over $100,000, thanks to clearer regulations and growing interest from both big investors and everyday people. What began quietly in 2009 as a digital experiment has evolved into a globally recognized asset. That’s why it’s important to understand why people invest in Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is now worth over $100,000, thanks to clearer regulations and growing interest from both big investors and everyday people. What began quietly in 2009 as a digital experiment has evolved into a globally recognized asset. That’s why it’s important to understand why people invest in Bitcoin.

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Bitcoin is often seen as a store of value, like digital gold, but hasn’t been known for doing much beyond that. That’s now changing. In 2025, a new trend called Bitcoin Finance (BTC-Fi) is gaining traction, turning Bitcoin into an active part of the broader crypto ecosystem.

Research Newsletter

Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com

Disclaimer

The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.

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USB7 ETF köper amerikanska statsobligationer med löptid upp till tio år

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Amundi US Treasury Bond 7-10Y UCITS ETF Acc (USB7 ETF) med ISIN LU1407887915, försöker följa Bloomberg US Treasury 7-10-index. Bloomberg US Treasury 7-10-index följer amerikanska statsobligationer. Tid till mognad: 7-10 år. Betyg: AAA.

Amundi US Treasury Bond 7-10Y UCITS ETF Acc (USB7 ETF) med ISIN LU1407887915, försöker följa Bloomberg US Treasury 7-10-index. Bloomberg US Treasury 7-10-index följer amerikanska statsobligationer. Tid till mognad: 7-10 år. Betyg: AAA.

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,06% p.a. Amundi US Treasury Bond 7-10Y UCITS ETF Acc är den enda ETF som följer Bloomberg US Treasury 7-10 index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom fullständig replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Ränteintäkterna (kupongerna) i ETFen ackumuleras och återinvesteras.

Amundi US Treasury Bond 7-10Y UCITS ETF Acc är en stor ETF med tillgångar på 751 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 2 juni 2023 och har sin hemvist i Luxemburg.

Investeringsmål

Amundi US Treasury Bond 7-10Y UCITS ETF Acc strävar efter att så nära som möjligt replikera resultatet för Bloomberg US Treasury 7-10 Year Index (”Referensindex”), denominerat i USD, oavsett om trenden stiger eller faller medan minimera volatiliteten i skillnaden mellan delfondens avkastning och indexets avkastning (”Spårningsfelet” För ytterligare information om indexregler, se fondprospektet eller KID).

Handla USB7 ETF

Amundi US Treasury Bond 7-10Y UCITS ETF Acc (USB7 ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och Borsa Italiana.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
XETRAEURUSB7
Borsa ItalianaEURUS7
SIX Swiss ExchangeUSDUS7

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Kryptons revansch: Därför lockar bitcoin investerare igen – så enkelt kan du få dubbel exponering

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Kryptons revansch Bitcoin har åter klivit in i rampljuset. Efter några volatila år växer intresset för kryptovalutor - och det kommer

Bitcoin har åter klivit in i rampljuset. Efter några volatila år växer intresset för kryptovalutor – och det kommer inte bara från teknikentusiaster och privatsparare, utan i allt högre grad från institutionella investerare, stora företag och det politiska ledare.

Men vad driver uppgången – och hur kan du som investerare positionera dig?

En anledning till att bitcoin är hett igen är den nya räntemiljön och oron för ihållande inflation. Många investerare söker tillgångar som kan bevara sitt värde, och bitcoin ses i allt högre grad som ett digitalt guld.

För det andra har bitcoin fått ökad legitimitet bland institutionella investerare. Ifjol godkändes de första spot-ETF:erna för bitcoin i USA – en historisk milstolpe. Dessutom har företag som Visa, Mastercard och PayPal integrerat kryptovalutor i sina system. Denna institutionella genomslag signalerar att bitcoin inte längre är en nischinvestering.

Bitcoin har också en begränsad tillgång, till skillnad från fiatvalutor som kan tryckas i obegränsade mängder. Bitcoin har ett förutbestämt tak på 21 miljoner i antal, vilket gör det attraktivt för den som vill skydda sig mot urholkad köpkraft.

För det fjärde har tekniken har också blivit snabbare, och det är nu enklare än någonsin att använda bitcoin i praktiken. Samtidigt är det nu möjligt att investera i kryptovalutor via vanliga depåer och reglerade börser, utan att behöva hantera privata nycklar eller sätta sig in i tekniska detaljer.

Så får du dubbel exponering – utan terminer eller marginalkonto:

Om du tror på en fortsatt uppgång i kryptomarknaden och vill ha förstärkt exponering, har HANetf lanserat en 2x long bitcoin ETP. Med två gånger hävstång rör sig produktens värde dubbelt så mycket som den underliggande kryptovalutan, dag för dag. Till exempel motsvarar 2 procent uppgång i bitcoin 4 procent ökning i produkten.

En stor fördel med detta investeringsinstrument är att du inte behöver använda derivat, ta lån eller öppna ett särskilt (marginal)konto.

HANetf vill göra taktisk exponering mot krypto tillgänglig för fler investerare på ett reglerat och säkert sätt. Deras utbud av hävstångsprodukter inom krypto (leveraged crypto ETPs) kan handlas via plattformar som Avanza, precis som aktier eller vanliga börshandlade fonder (ETF:er). Den fullständiga listan över handelsplattformar finns på HANetfs webbplats.

Förbindelsen går åt båda hållen – HANetf erbjuder också en Daily Short Bitcoin ETP, som är utformad för att ge investerare ett sätt att få daglig kort exponering mot bitcoin.

Men det är också viktigt att förstå riskerna:

Produkter med hävstång förstärker både vinster och förluster. Därför är det avgörande att ha en tydlig strategi och förstå hur daglig hävstång fungerar. För en mer djupgående genomgång av hur dagliga hävstångs- och short-ETP:er fungerar, kan du läsa hela förklaringsguiden på HANetf:s webbplats.

Dessa produkter passar bäst för erfarna investerare med ett kortsiktigt perspektiv.

HANetf erbjuder också en motsvarande 2x hävstång för kryptovalutan Ethereum.

Handla 2LBT ETC

2x Long Bitcoin ETC (2LBT ETC) är en europeisk börshandlad kryptovaluta. Denna börshandlade produkt handlas på Nasdaq Stockholm.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel  NordnetSAVRLevlerDEGIRO och Avanza.

Handla 2LET ETC

2x Long Ethereum (2LET ETC) är en europeisk börshandlad kryptovaluta. Denna börshandlade produkt handlas på Nasdaq Stockholm.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel  NordnetSAVRLevlerDEGIRO och Avanza.

Handla 2SBT ETC

2x Short Bitcoin (2SBT ETC) är en europeisk börshandlad kryptovaluta. Denna börshandlade produkt handlas på Nasdaq Stockholm.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel  NordnetSAVRLevlerDEGIRO och Avanza.

OM HANetf:

HANetf är en oberoende leverantör av börshandlade produkter (ETP:er) som samarbetar med kapitalförvaltare för att erbjuda unika, moderna och innovativa investeringsmöjligheter för europeiska investerare.

Genom en white-label-plattform erbjuds en komplett lösning för att lansera och hantera UCITS-ETFer och ETC:er – inklusive drift, regelverk, distribution och marknadsföring – åt kapitalförvaltare över hela världen.

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