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The Rise and Fall of Ethereum and Bitcoin, Respectively

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Ethereum and Bitcoin The biggest winners of last week were Ethereum (+7.88%), Arbitrum (+15.93%), and Uniswap (+7.38%). What happened in crypto this week? Sticky inflation is back in the U.S. and the Eurozone; annual inflation in both economies increased by 3.4% in December. However, the factors differ. Eleven spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been approved in the U.S. However, the asset in question fell by 9.27% over the past week, while its rival, Ethereum, has enjoyed some spotlight with a weekly increase of 7.88%. How did that happen? Let’s make it make sense.

The biggest winners of last week were Ethereum (+7.88%), Arbitrum (+15.93%), and Uniswap (+7.38%). What happened in crypto this week? Sticky inflation is back in the U.S. and the Eurozone; annual inflation in both economies increased by 3.4% in December. However, the factors differ. Eleven spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been approved in the U.S. However, the asset in question fell by 9.27% over the past week, while its rival, Ethereum, has enjoyed some spotlight with a weekly increase of 7.88%. How did that happen? Let’s make it make sense.

Inflation is Back

On January 10, the vice president of the European Central Bank (ECB), Luis de Guindos, gave a speech about the economic outlook and monetary policy in the euro area, whose annual inflation increased by 3.4% in December, and how the economy’s downturn is expected to continue in 2024. The ECB decided to keep the three key interest rates unchanged. Although it has declined significantly from its peak in March, food inflation remained high at just above 6% in December. As shown in Figure 1, energy inflation remained negative in December, recording the eighth consecutive decline since May 2023.

Figure 1: Euro-Area Inflation by Category

Source: Eurostat, Bloomberg

In the U.S., the annual inflation rate also increased by 3.4% in December, the most in three months. The cost of housing, clothes, and cars are some of the primary contributors to the sticky inflation that has dimmed rate-cut expectations. With three rate cuts anticipated for 2024, investors expected the first rate cut to be as early as March. Despite the consumer price index print, some are even expecting a rate cut for each of the seven Fed meetings. Speculation aside, the Fed’s Fund Rates Statement is scheduled for the end of this month.

Finally, a sticky inflation is inherently good news for crypto, namely Bitcoin, as its emerging narrative has been shining brighter as a hedge against currency debasement.

Figure 2: U.S. Inflation by Major Categories

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

A Landmark Moment for Bitcoin

After months of delays, the applications for spot Bitcoin ETF were finally approved, with 11 asset managers getting the regulatory green light to launch their fund products. While spot ETF products have been present in Europe for the past five years, their introduction in the US marks a significant milestone. American markets, valued at $45 trillion in market capitalization, are nearly three times larger than their European counterparts at $13 trillion. This opens the door for much broader participation, solidifying crypto as a credible asset class and propelling it further into the mainstream, where it can seamlessly integrate into the traditional portfolios of the largest asset managers in the world.

Approximately $17.5B has been traded on the products since launch, with total inflows reaching close to $1.2B. That said, Bitcoin moderately declined by ~9% since the ETF launch, which was first triggered by December’s CPI data, showing that inflation was on the rise again and prompting a temporary risk-off response. In addition, as shown in Figure 3, short-term investors seized on the opportunity presented by the hallmark event as they transferred a record amount of BTC (48K) to exchanges – levels last seen almost three years ago. Given that Bitcoin grew by nearly 90% since the initiation of the ETF speculation rally in June 2023, marked by BlackRock’s initial application filing, it is logical to see this level of profit-taking.

Figure 3: Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Transfer to Exchanges Activity

Source: Glassnode

Ethereum Regaining Spotlight

As markets are forward-looking, Ethereum surged by close to 8% week-over-week following the approval of the spot Bitcoin ETFs. Although it’s still quite unclear if Ethereum would receive the same regulatory treatment as Bitcoin, investors may have speculated that Ethereum could be in a favorable position due to the existence of an ETH futures ETF in the U.S. – a reminiscent feature of Bitcoin’s position ahead of the approvals. Beyond the speculation, Ethereum is inching closer toward its network upgrade called the DenCun, which is expected in February. The upgrade should reduce the transaction fees for all scaling solutions built on top of the network, like Optimism and Arbitrum, by about 90%.

Further, the co-founder of Ethereum, Vitalik Buterin, proposed to increase the block gas limit by 33%, from 30M to 40M units, which would improve the network’s throughput. Although it is too early to tell if the proposed improvement will see the light, leading on-chain metrics such as Network-to-Value (NVT) can give a better picture of the network’s valuation. In the figure below, we can see that Ethereum’s NVT ratio is in a downtrend, often an indicator of bullish sentiment and improving fundamentals if the price continues to appreciate in tandem. That implies a higher adoption rate for the network, which can be observed in the increasing daily transactions as they grew from 1.25M to 1.96M over the past week, showing Ethereum’s on-chain ecosystem is experiencing an uptick in usage.

Figure 4: Ethereum’s 30-Day Moving Average Network-to-Value Ratio

Source: 21co on Dune Analytics

This Week’s Calendar

Source: Forex Factory, CoinMarketCal

Research Newsletter

Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com

Disclaimer

The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.

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Bitcoin Survives Bear Trap

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Bitcoin has witnessed some heavy price turbulence after breaking the $71K mark in early June. Since then, it lost almost 21% in value scraping the key level of $55K in the first week of July.

Bitcoin has witnessed some heavy price turbulence after breaking the $71K mark in early June. Since then, it lost almost 21% in value scraping the key level of $55K in the first week of July.

Figure 1 – Bitcoin Price

Source: Glassnode

However, since last Friday, Bitcoin has gained $7K and is now trading around the $64K mark. But why has it been such a turbulent time for Bitcoin?

Factors Contributing to the Selling Pressure

• Bitcoin Miner Activity

• German Government Sell-Offs

• Mt. Gox Repayment Program & Bitcoin Exchange Liquidity

Bitcoin Miner Activity

The BTC selling pressure was earmarked by miner activity, after selling 30K BTC in June. This sell-off marked miners’ BTC reserves at the lowest in a decade, just over 1.8K BTC.

Figure 2 – Bitcoin Miner Balance’

Source: Glassnode

Miners have however reduced their activity on-exchange, which should calm fears further. In June, miners were moving an average of around 50 BTC or just under $3M per day to exchanges, which has now slowed down, as shown below.

Figure 3 – Bitcoin Transfer Volume from Miners to Exchanges

Source: Glassnode

On top of that, on-chain data shows the 30-day moving average of Bitcoin’s hash rate is starting to close the gap with the 60-day moving average, for the first time since May. This indicates miners are experiencing lower income stress, which typically signals a market bottom.

Figure 4 – Bitcoin’s Hash Ribbon Indicator

Source: Glassnode

As a result, miner reserves have slowly started to pick back up, as shown in the first figure. This could indicate that the miner sell-offs post-halving, due to reduced profitability, have tapered off which is another reason to be cautiously positive.

German Government Sell-Offs

The German Goverment had been in the process of completing the sale of 50K BTC seized from a pirating website, Movie2k, which was worth approximately $3B when the sell-offs started.

Figure 5 – German Government Holdings

Source: @obchakevich on Dune Analytics

Bitcoin had a shaky June and July. However, in the week Germany sold almost 80% of their holdings, 40K BTC or $2.2B worth, Bitcoin’s price remained fairly resilient, a testament to its strength in adverse market conditions. That being said, according to data from Arkham Intelligence, the German Government engaged via OTC trades, to minimize potential slippage and market impact.

Figure 6 – Bitcoin Price (7 July – 14 July)

Source: Glassnode

Nevertheless, the conclusion of these sell-offs is positive for Bitcoin, as it removes a significant dark cloud from the market, and demonstrates the asset’s resilience.

Mt. Gox Repayment Program

However, Bitcoin faces selling pressure due to the upcoming Mt. Gox repayment program. Starting in July 2024, Mt. Gox began repaying approximately $9B worth of assets to its creditors, who have been waiting for over a decade since the exchange’s collapse in 2014.

Figure 7 – Mt. Gox Holdings

Source: @21co on Dune Analytics

Of the approximate 142K BTC held by Mt. Gox, 139K BTC is left to be reimbursed, equating to approximately 2% being paid back as of today, indicating a slow sale rate. However, yesterday Mt. Gox shuffled almost 96K BTC between their wallets, which contributed to the renewed FUD, as they prepare to distribute the reimbursements. While the repayment sum is very large, it is unlikely that these creditors will sell off their BTC immediately, given their long-term belief in the crypto industry given their involvement a decade ago, and the potential capital gains tax implications associated with the asset. The selling pressure is further diluted by the fact that reimbursements will likely occur on different days across different exchanges.

Bitcoin Exchange Liquidity

Despite, Bitcoin’s apparent survival. Let’s take a closer look at how the remaining BTC could affect the market. 139K BTC or $8.93B worth remains for Mt. Gox to restore to creditors, who may end up selling their assets. To gauge the market impact of this, it may help to look at Bitcoin’s liquidity on exchange. Presuming they aim to sell their BTC, the sell-offs will likely occur by trading with a fiat pair (BTC/USD) or a stablecoin pair (BTC/USDT or BTC/USDC). The top 5 most liquid exchanges are listed below, with their respective liquidity depths in dollar and BTC terms (assuming July’s average price of $59K).

Figure 8 – Centralized Exchange % Depth

Source: Coingecko

As to not mitigate the market impact, the sell-offs are likely to occur across several exchanges. The five most liquid exchanges need around $72M outflows, on a given day to have a 2% downward price swing. The potential sell-offs are contingent on creditors finally receiving their assets from Mt. Gox, which is happening very slowly. Furthermore, it is doubtful that once received, they will sell all their BTC immediately, and as such any price action is largely resulting from the negative market sentiment associated with this event.

On-Chain Metrics

Despite the negativity surrounding the market, looking on-chain could help uncover dynamics that might make investors feel positive, and we propose 3 different indicators to look at.

The Market Value to Realized Value Ratio (MVRV) is a metric that assesses Bitcoin’s market valuation relative to its realized value, helping identify market tops and bottoms.

    A high MVRV indicates overvaluation and a potential market top, while a low score indicates undervaluation and a potential market bottom.

    Figure 9 – Bitcoin MVRV Score

    Source: Glassnode

    The current MVRV is around levels seen at the end of December 2020, just before Bitcoin rallied from $11K to around the $60K mark. This is also similar to the levels seen towards the end of last year, before the ETF craze which drove Bitcoin to a new all-time high of $75K in early March. Given these historical precedents, this MVRV level suggests a potential for significant upside, making it an opportune time for investors to consider entering the market.

    Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicates the difference between investors’ unrealized profits and losses to assess market sentiment, with positive values suggesting profit-dominant sentiment and negative values indicating loss-dominant sentiment.

      This metric is another reason for positivity. Currently, Bitcoin’s NUPL is in the optimism/denial phase, indicating moderate unrealized profits among investors. This suggests that market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, after recent price stagnations led NUPL to drop, and belief to be wiped away. That being said, this is a healthy consolidation for the asset and potentially allows it to spur on.

      Figure 10 – Bitcoin Net Unrealized Profit/Loss

      Source: Glassnode

      1. Fear and Greed Index measures market sentiment, with values ranging from 0 (extreme fear) to 100 (extreme greed). It helps investors gauge whether the market is overly bearish or bullish, indicating potential buying or selling opportunities.

      Figure 11 – Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index

      Source: Glassnode

      The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index was often in the ‘Fear’ region during June and early July. However, this was a positive sign, as it was near levels we had not seen since September 2023, when the asset was trading at $26K, which preceded a historical price rally. Over the weekend, the Fear and Greed Index sprung to Greed levels, suggesting we might be on track for another parabolic run.

      Conclusions

      • Bitcoin’s turbulence has stemmed from significant selling pressures, particularly the Mt. Gox repayment program.

      o The impact of these sell-offs is moderated by Bitcoin’s strong exchange liquidity and potential ETF inflows.
      • The dark cloud of the German Government sell-offs is out of the way.

      • On-chain metrics suggest the potential for a bullish reversal, indicating now might be an opportune time for investors to consider entering the market.

      For investors looking to invest in Bitcoin via a regulated investment vehicle, the following ETPs are available on the European market:

      Figure 12 – Top 10 European Bitcoin Products by Assets Under Management Product Ticker

      Source: Bloomberg, Data as of July 16th, 2024.

      Avg. Daily Spread 20D (bps): refers to the best daily average bid/ask spread over the last 20 days across European exchanges.

      This Week’s Calendar

      Source: Forex Factory, 21Shares

      Research Newsletter

      Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com

      Disclaimer

      The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.

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      00X0 ETC investerar i industrimetaller och hedgas i euro

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      WisdomTree Industrial Metals - EUR Daily Hedged (00X0 ETC) är en fullständigt säkerställd, UCITS-godkänd Exchange Traded Commodity (ETC) utformad för att ge investerare en total avkastningsexponering mot Industrial Metals terminskontrakt som valutasäkras i EUR.

      WisdomTree Industrial Metals – EUR Daily Hedged (00X0 ETC) är en fullständigt säkerställd, UCITS-godkänd Exchange Traded Commodity (ETC) utformad för att ge investerare en total avkastningsexponering mot Industrial Metals terminskontrakt som valutasäkras i EUR.

      Denna ETC syftar till att replikera Bloomberg Industrial Metals Sub Euro Hedged Daily Total Return Index (BUINDET) genom att spåra Bloomberg Industrial Metals Sub Euro Hedged Daily Excess Return Index och tillhandahålla ränteintäkterna justerade för att återspegla avgifter och kostnader förknippade med produkten. Till exempel, om Bloomberg Industrial Metals Sub Euro Hedged Daily Total Return Index stiger med 1 % under en dag, kommer ETC att stiga med 1 %, exklusive avgifter. Men om Bloomberg Industrial Metals Sub Euro Hedged Daily Total Return Index faller med 1 % under en dag, kommer ETCen att falla med 1 %, exklusive avgifter.

      Index

      Bloomberg Industrial Metals Subindex Euro Hedged Daily Total Return, indexet är utformat för att återspegla rörelsen i priset på terminskontrakten för industriella metallråvaror (som kontinuerligt rullas enligt ett förutbestämt rullande schema) som används i Bloomberg Commodity IndexSM samt att införliva en valutasäkring mot rörelser i EUR/ USD växelkurs. Valutasäkringen ombalanseras dagligen.

      Ett terminskontrakt är ett avtal om att köpa en vara till ett överenskommet pris, där leverans och betalning ska ske vid en bestämd tidpunkt i framtiden. Terminskontrakt avyttras i allmänhet strax innan kontraktets löptid löper ut och nya kontrakt ingås för att undvika att ta emot faktisk leverans av varan i fråga (en process som kallas ”rullande”), så att kontinuerlig exponering för råvaran upprätthålls.

      Kontrakten som köps kan vara dyrare än kontrakten som säljs, vilket skulle få en investerare i råvaruterminer att göra en ytterligare förlust. Denna marknadstrend kallas ”contango”. Alternativt kan kontrakten som köps vara billigare än de som säljs, vilket skulle resultera i en ytterligare vinst, känd som ”backwardation”. Denna prisskillnad kallas vanligtvis ”rullavkastning”. Eftersom rullavkastningen ingår i beräkningen av indexvärdet kan det därför ha en positiv eller negativ inverkan på indexets värde beroende på om det finns contango eller bakåtgång. ETC kommer också att påverkas eftersom dess värde baseras på indexets värde.

      Handla 00X0 ETC

      WisdomTree Industrial Metals – EUR Daily Hedged (00X0 ETC) är en europeisk börshandlad råvara. Denna ETC handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och Borsa Italiana. Av den anledningen förekommer olika kortnamn på samma börshandlade fond.

      Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETP genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

      Börsnoteringar

      BörsValutaKortnamnISIN
      Borsa ItalianaEUREIMTJE00B78NPW60
      XetraEUR00X0JE00B78NPW60

      Största innehav

      RåvaraVikt %
      COMEX Copper35.60%
      LME Aluminium26.60%
      LME Zinc17.50%
      LME Nickel13.68%
      LME Lead6.62%

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      AINJ ETP spårar INJ och skapar staking intäkter

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      21Shares Injective Staking ETP (AINJ ETP) med ISIN CH1360612134 är 100 procent fysiskt uppbackad. 21Shares Injective Staking ETP (AINJ) spårar prestanda för INJ samtidigt som den skapar staking intäkter som återinvesteras i ETP för förbättrad prestanda. Medan blockchain-nätverk vanligtvis är siloförsedda, stöder Injective Protocol sömlösa interaktioner över stora nätverk, vilket möjliggör ett unikt utbud av finansiella produkter och tjänster. 21Shares Injective Staking ETP erbjuder ett enkelt, reglerat och transparent sätt att dra nytta av nätverkets växande betydelse inom decentraliserad finans (DeFi).

      21Shares Injective Staking ETP (AINJ ETP) med ISIN CH1360612134 är 100 procent fysiskt uppbackad. 21Shares Injective Staking ETP (AINJ) spårar prestanda för INJ samtidigt som den skapar staking intäkter som återinvesteras i ETP för förbättrad prestanda. Medan blockchain-nätverk vanligtvis är siloförsedda, stöder Injective Protocol sömlösa interaktioner över stora nätverk, vilket möjliggör ett unikt utbud av finansiella produkter och tjänster. 21Shares Injective Staking ETP erbjuder ett enkelt, reglerat och transparent sätt att dra nytta av nätverkets växande betydelse inom decentraliserad finans (DeFi).

      Fördelar

      Innovativ teknik: Injective erbjuder ett avancerat DeFi-ekosystem med funktioner som noll gasavgifter och omedelbar slutgiltig transaktion, vilket förbättrar användarupplevelsen på finansiella kryptoapplikationer.

      Staking med lätthet: Med AINJ kan investerare få tillgång till r med fördelen av professionell riskhantering samtidigt som de undviker behovet av att direkt låsa tillgångar.

      100 % fysiskt uppbackad: 21Shares Injective Staking ETP är 100 % fysiskt backad av den underliggande INJ och förvaras i kylförvaring hos ett institutionellt förvaringsinstitut, vilket erbjuder ett bättre skydd än depåalternativ som är tillgängliga för enskilda investerare.

      Nyckelinformation

      Handla AINJ ETP

      21Shares Injective Staking ETP (AINJ ETP) är en börshandlad kryptovaluta (ETP) som handlas på Euronext Amsterdam.

      Euronext Amsterdam är en marknad som få svenska banker och nätmäklare erbjuder access till, men DEGIRO gör det.

      Börsnoteringar

      BörsValutaKortnamn
      Euronext AmsterdamUSDAINJ NA
      Euronext ParisEURAINJ FR

      Produktinformation

      Namn21Shares Injective Staking ETP
      Lanseringsdatum9 juli 2024
      Emittent21Shares AG
      Förvaltningsarvode2,5%

      Handelssymboler

      KortnamnAINJ
      Valor136061213
      ISINCH1360612134
      ReutersAINJ.S
      WKNA4AHQC
      BloombergAINJ BW

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