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The Quiet Before the Rate Cut?

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August was not a great month. Although all eyes are on September rate cut, we’ll probably see more positive flows in October.

• August was not a great month. Although all eyes are on September rate cuts, we’ll probably see more positive flows in October.

• A rate cut generally bodes well for risk-on assets like crypto, although some factors may overshadow its impact.

• Bitcoin long-term investors accumulated over $8M in August, the biggest monthly change in their stance year-to-date.

• Despite the headwinds, Bitcoin’s fundamentals are growing, offering new precedents for the network.

The Quiet Before the Rate Cut?

Rhyming with historical price movements, August was a slow month for risk-on assets. Equities and cryptoassets took a hit during the first week of August, which exhibited turbulent market conditions instigated by the Japanese interest rates and exacerbated by geopolitical conflicts. Slow recovery followed as macroeconomic data came mostly in line with expectations, setting the stage for a potential rate cut in September.

Reminder: 2024 is the year of the Bitcoin halving. Historically, Bitcoin has only had a positive performance in the fourth quarter of the halving year, as shown in Figure 1 below. This year is different, though, since Bitcoin’s price movement defied historical patterns and climbed to a new all-time high in March, thanks to the liquidity flowing into the new Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the U.S. Therefore, Q4 this year is fueled with catalysts, with the hype around the presidential elections in the U.S. and the impending breakout of global liquidity as explained in our previous newsletter.

Figure 1 – Bitcoin’s Quarterly Performance

Source: Coinglass

The Fed’s Sentiment

In Jackson Hole, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said it’s time to cut rates, provided the incoming data maintains its current trajectory that inflation is headed in the right direction. The Fed’s favorite gauge for inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), came in line with expectations, rising by 0.2% in July, indicating that while inflation is improving, it is not entirely out of the woods.

In the lead-up to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 18, we still have some crucial data that would influence the Fed’s decision. With the ratio of vacancies to unemployment returning to its pre-pandemic range, Powell emphasized that they will no longer be seeking cooling labor market conditions. That said, the unemployment rate coming out on September 6 has to be 4.2% or less to shake off recession fears, which have undoubtedly dampened risk-on assets performance this month.

How do we expect crypto to react?

Generally, a rate cut bodes well for risk-on assets, which have historically enjoyed the expansion of the investor appetite as borrowing costs decrease. The last time the Federal Reserve cut rates to weather the pandemic repercussions was in March 2020, when they cut rates by 150 basis points (bps) to reach near-zero levels. The total crypto market cap increased by about 450% towards the end of the year, and Bitcoin’s price surged by 250% during the same period, as shown in Figure 2 below. While the Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut rates by only 25 basis points (bps) in September, the historical context can gauge crypto’s macro sensitivity.

Figure 2 – Rate cuts against Bitcoin’s Performance

Source: Federal Reserve, Coingecko, 21Shares

Bitcoin’s Fundamental Prospects

Bitcoin’s performance in August has been disappointing, dropping by over 9% and ending the month at around the $59K mark, as shown in Figure 3 below. This has been largely due to the aforementioned mixed macroeconomic data, which weighed down market sentiment as many investors grow concerned about a potential recession. As we look forward to the likely 25bps rate cut, the market eagerly awaits more data that could signal an improved outlook. However, while we wait, several fundamental developments in the Bitcoin ecosystem could drive momentum for the asset in the near term.

Figure 3 – Bitcoin Price in August

Source: Coingecko, 21Shares

The network’s leading scalability solution, Stacks, is currently undergoing a significant upgrade, which started on August 28, dubbed ‘Nakamoto.’ The upgrade makes Bitcoin more scalable by anchoring Stacks’ transaction finality to Bitcoin, using a unique mechanism called “Proof of Transfer.” This allows Stacks to handle smart contracts and dApps on a separate layer, effectively increasing transaction throughput without congesting the main Bitcoin network. By settling transactions on the Stacks blockchain and periodically anchoring them to Bitcoin, Bitcoin’s functionality scales without compromising its security or decentralization. A key component of the Nakamoto upgrade is sBTC, a synthetic derivative with a decentralized, two-way peg mechanism with Bitcoin. This feature allows BTC to become a productive asset by being deployed in decentralized finance applications like BTC-based lending and borrowing, which is due to attract a host of new users.

Another significant development is the launch of Babylon Chain, whose phase 1 mainnet went live on August 22. The vision for the highly anticipated protocol allows BTC holders to utilize their idle assets to secure Proof-of-Stake (PoS) systems like Ethereum. Over $9B worth of BTC is being utilized across DeFi in the shape of wrapped Ethereum-based tokens; this sets the stage for how Bitcoin-native liquidity solutions could boost the demand for the asset in the form of additional yield! That said, a Babylon PoS chain will only receive security from the staked BTC in Phase 2 since the first phase merely prepares the BTC assets, which will participate in PoS consensus in subsequent phases. Hence, we might need to wait for the respective phases to be activated for this protocol to translate into real Bitcoin demand.

The above developments are part of a broader trend in the Bitcoin ecosystem, transforming the oldest crypto network beyond its initial peer-to-peer payment use case. Ongoing discussions around re-enabling OP_CAT present another exciting avenue for Bitcoin’s evolution. This would allow for more sophisticated smart contract functionality and multi-party transactions, expanding Bitcoin’s functionality beyond simple peer-to-peer transactions.

Nevertheless, this script was initially disabled due to security concerns, and it may introduce more attack surfaces, which must be managed not to compromise Bitcoin’s security and stability. Similarly, BitVM (short for “Bitcoin Virtual Machine”) proposes a way to achieve Turing-complete computation on Bitcoin, allowing for computational logic to be executed within Bitcoin’s framework. This means more complicated dApps can be built without altering Bitcoin’s core protocol! Bitcoin is becoming a more versatile asset within the on-chain ecosystem, and consequently, the demand for Bitcoin should grow. That said, the effects of these developments are likely to be visible over a longer period, and numerous potential risks must be carefully managed to maintain Bitcoin’s core principles.

Despite the recent sideways performance, long-term holders are showing increased confidence as shown in Figure 4 below. They have accumulated over $8M in BTC in August alone – the highest monthly change in their stance year-to-date. This is likely a result of the anticipated positive performance in Q4, driven by potentially easing macroeconomic pressures and the upcoming U.S. election, which historically catalyze risk assets. Additionally, the growing use cases for the asset are contributing to the increased adoption among long-term holders, who are a key indicator of Bitcoin demand.

Figure 4 –Long-Term Holder Net Position Change

Source: Glassnode, 21Shares

Next Month’s Calendar

Source: Forex Factory, 21Shares

Research Newsletter

Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com

Disclaimer

The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.

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Michael Saylor’s bold Bitcoin bet and Strategy’s risk analysis

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Michael Saylor’s bold Bitcoin bet and Strategy’s risk analysis Bitcoin price technical analysis: Where are the liquidation levels?
  • Michael Saylor’s bold Bitcoin bet and Strategy’s risk analysis
  • Bitcoin price technical analysis: Where are the liquidation levels?
  • What are real-world assets and why do we need tokenization?

Michael Saylor’s bold Bitcoin bet and Strategy’s risk analysis

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has amassed a staggering $43 billion in Bitcoin, positioning itself at the forefront of the corporate “reserve race.” Under the leadership of Bitcoin maximalist Michael Saylor, the company now boasts an $84 billion market cap. But with such an aggressive strategy, how sustainable is its approach—and what risks lie ahead? We break it down in today’s analysis.

Bitcoin price technical analysis: Where are the liquidation levels?

A drop below $72,000 could flush longs, while a breakout above $90,000 may squeeze shorts. One key positive indicator is that Bitcoin continues to print higher lows since March 10, which preserves a bullish market structure in our view. Dive into our technical analysis.

What are real-world assets and why do we need tokenization?

Imagine owning a slice of a skyscraper or a piece of fine art with just a few clicks. Tokenization, the act of converting ownership rights to real-world assets (RWAs) into tradable tokens, has surpassed $10 billion in on-chain value, unlocking global 24/7 access to once-exclusive markets with liquidity, efficiency, and yield. Find out how it works.

Research Newsletter

Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com

Disclaimer

The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.

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BSE0 ETF köper bara företagsobligationer med förfall 2030

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Invesco BulletShares 2030 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Acc (BSE0 ETF) med ISIN IE000I25S1V5, försöker följa Bloomberg 2030 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened-index. Bloomberg 2030 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened Index följer företagsobligationer denominerade i EUR. Indexet speglar inte ett konstant löptidsintervall (som är fallet med de flesta andra obligationsindex). Istället ingår endast obligationer som förfaller under det angivna året (här: 2030) i indexet. Indexet består av ESG (environmental, social and governance) screenade företagsobligationer. Betyg: Investment Grade. Löptid: december 2030 (Denna ETF kommer att stängas efteråt).

Invesco BulletShares 2030 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Acc (BSE0 ETF) med ISIN IE000I25S1V5, försöker följa Bloomberg 2030 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened-index. Bloomberg 2030 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened Index följer företagsobligationer denominerade i EUR. Indexet speglar inte ett konstant löptidsintervall (som är fallet med de flesta andra obligationsindex). Istället ingår endast obligationer som förfaller under det angivna året (här: 2030) i indexet. Indexet består av ESG (environmental, social and governance) screenade företagsobligationer. Betyg: Investment Grade. Löptid: december 2030 (Denna ETF kommer att stängas efteråt).

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,10 % p.a. Invesco BulletShares 2030 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Acc är den billigaste och största ETF som följer Bloomberg 2030 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom samplingsteknik (köper ett urval av de mest relevanta indexbeståndsdelarna). Ränteintäkterna (kupongerna) ackumuleras och återinvesteras.

Invesco BulletShares 2030 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Acc är en mycket liten ETF med tillgångar på 6 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 18 juni 2024 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Produktbeskrivning

Invesco BulletShares 2030 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF Acc syftar till att ge den totala avkastningen för Bloomberg 2030 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened Index (”Referensindexet”), minus avgifternas inverkan. Fonden har en fast löptid och kommer att upphöra på Förfallodagen.

Referensindexet är utformat för att återspegla resultatet för EUR-denominerade, investeringsklassade, fast ränta, skattepliktiga skuldebrev emitterade av företagsemittenter. För att vara berättigade till inkludering måste företagsvärdepapper ha minst 300 miljoner euro i nominellt utestående belopp och en effektiv löptid på eller mellan 1 januari 2030 och 31 december 2030.

Värdepapper är uteslutna om emittenter: 1) är inblandade i kontroversiella vapen, handeldvapen, militära kontrakt, oljesand, termiskt kol eller tobak; 2) inte har en kontroversnivå enligt definitionen av Sustainalytics eller har en Sustainalytics-kontroversnivå högre än 4; 3) anses inte följa principerna i FN:s Global Compact; eller 4) kommer från tillväxtmarknader.

Portföljförvaltarna strävar efter att uppnå fondens mål genom att tillämpa en urvalsstrategi, som inkluderar användning av kvantitativ analys, för att välja en andel av värdepapperen från referensindexet som representerar hela indexets egenskaper, med hjälp av faktorer som index- vägd genomsnittlig varaktighet, industrisektorer, landvikter och kreditkvalitet. När en företagsobligation som innehas av fonden når förfallodag kommer kontanterna som fonden tar emot att användas för att investera i kortfristiga EUR-denominerade skulder.

ETFen förvaltas passivt.

En investering i denna fond är ett förvärv av andelar i en passivt förvaltad indexföljande fond snarare än i de underliggande tillgångarna som ägs av fonden.

Förfallodag: andra onsdagen i december 2026 eller sådant annat datum som bestäms av styrelseledamöterna och meddelas aktieägaren

Handla BSE0 ETF

Invesco BulletShares 2030 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Acc (BSE0 ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
XETRAEURBSE0

Största innehav

NamnCUSIPISINKupongräntaVikt %
Fresenius SE & Co KGaA 5.125% 05/10/30D2R9K1AL3XS26987136955.1252.55%
Mercedes-Benz Group AG 2.375% 22/05/30D1668RZW0DE000A289XG82.3752.19%
Akzo Nobel NV 1.625% 14/04/30N01803YV6XS21565982811.6252.08%
Eni SpA 0.625% 23/01/30T3666JJV9XS21073154700.6251.98%
Prologis International Funding II 2.375% 14/11/30L7763MAD2XS19046903412.3751.78%
REWE International Finance BV 4.875% 13/09/30N74119AA1XS26798981844.8751.65%
CaixaBank SA 4.25% 06/09/30E2R193R97XS26768144994.2501.64%
Verizon Communications Inc 4.25% 31/10/30XS25508811434.2501.64%
Liberty Mutual Group Inc 4.625% 02/12/30U52932BR7XS25616473684.6251.62%
AXA SA 3.75% 12/10/30F0609NBG2XS25372511703.7501.60%

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US regulatory shift provides a beacon for optimism

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Since President Trump appointed Mark Uyeda as acting SEC chair two months ago, many investigations into crypto businesses have been dropped, as the SEC moves away from regulation by enforcement and works to create a framework for digital assets. As regulations become clearer and news flow turns more positive, crypto prices—which dropped sharply this week—should begin to better reflect the new regulatory landscape in the US.

Since President Trump appointed Mark Uyeda as acting SEC chair two months ago, many investigations into crypto businesses have been dropped, as the SEC moves away from regulation by enforcement and works to create a framework for digital assets. As regulations become clearer and news flow turns more positive, crypto prices—which dropped sharply this week—should begin to better reflect the new regulatory landscape in the US.

We believe this regulatory shift could ultimately help trigger the next leg of the current bull run, as investors better understand the significance of regulatory clarity and seek to acquire bitcoin and altcoins at what we believe are currently very favorable levels.

Market Highlights

SEC Dismisses Crypto Enforcement Actions

The SEC dropped its enforcement actions against crypto-related companies Kraken, Consensys, and Cumberland DRW.

This indicates a shift in SEC’s regulatory approach, favoring clearer guidelines over enforcement actions. Such a pivot could foster a more predictable environment, encouraging innovation within the sector.

Banks to Engage in Crypto Activities

The FDIC has rescinded previous guidelines which prevented financial institutions from engaging with crypto activities without prior sign-off.

By removing bureaucratic hurdles, banks may more readily offer crypto-related services, potentially leading to broader adoption and integration of digital assets.

Bitcoin ETFs Inflow Streak Surpassed $1 Billion

US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded a 10-day inflow streak exceeding $1 billion marking the longest such streak in 2025.

This underscores growing institutional and retail investor confidence in Bitcoin as an asset class that helps increase market stability and possibly paving the way for the approval of other crypto-based financial products.

Market Metrics

All NCITM constituents had negative performance last week, with XRP (-10.8%) and UNI (-10.7%) seeing the steepest declines. ETH also experienced a sharp drop (-9.1%), contributing to NCITM’s underperformance relative to BTC (-2.9%). The NCITM -4.2% decline reflects a broader risk-off sentiment in the crypto market, as investors reassess their positions amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties.

NCITM (-4.2%) extended its underperformance last week, deepening year-to-date losses. Traditional indices like the S&P 500 (-1.5%) and Nasdaq 100 (-2.4%) saw smaller declines. The gap between crypto and other risk assets continues to widen, while gold has emerged as the top performer in 2025, gaining nearly 20% amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties. This trend highlights a growing risk-off sentiment, with investors shifting toward defensive assets and away from high-volatility investments.

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