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Real Assets Fueled by Energy
The VanEck Vectors Real Asset Allocation ETF (RAAX) uses a data-driven, rules-based process that leverages over 50 indicators (technical, macroeconomic and fundamental, commodity price, and sentiment) to allocate across 12 individual real asset segments in five broad real asset sectors. These objective indicators identify the segments with positive expected returns. Then, using correlation and volatility, an optimization process determines the weight to these segments with the goal of creating a portfolio with maximum diversification while reducing risk.
April Performance Summary
The VanEck Vectors Real Asset Allocation ETF (RAAX) launched, on April 9, into a period of strong performance for real assets. RAAX performed well on both an absolute and relative basis. Through April, in the first 16 days of its life, RAAX returned +2.98% based on net asset value versus +2.41% for its benchmark, the Blended Real Asset Index, which is comprised of an equally weighted blend of the returns of Bloomberg Commodity Index, S&P Real Assets Equity Index, and VanEck Natural Resources Index*. Equal weightings are reset monthly.
| Total Returns (%) as of April 30, 2018 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Mo† | YTD† | 1 Year | Life (04/09/18) | |
| RAAX (NAV) | – | – | – | 2.98 |
| RAAX (Share Price) | – | – | – | 3.26 |
| Blended Real Asset Index* | – | – | – | 2.41 |
| Total Returns (%) as of March 31, 2018 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Mo† | YTD† | 1 Year | Life (04/09/18) | |
| RAAX (NAV) | – | – | – | – |
| RAAX (Share Price) | – | – | – | – |
| Blended Real Asset Index* | – | – | – | – |
The table presents past performance which is no guarantee of future results and which may be lower or higher than current performance. Returns reflect temporary contractual fee waivers and/or expense reimbursements. Had the ETF incurred all expenses and fees, investment returns would have been reduced. Investment returns and ETF share values will fluctuate so that investors’ shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. ETF returns assume that distributions have been reinvested in the Fund at NAV.
†Returns less than a year are not annualized.
Expenses: Gross 0.81%; Net 0.74%. Expenses are capped contractually at 0.55% through February 1, 2020. Expenses are based on estimated amounts for the current fiscal year. Cap exclude certain expenses, such as interest, acquired fund fees and expenses, and trading expenses.
RAAX’s positioning was moderately defensive in April, and it was fully invested across commodities, natural resource equities, and Master Limited Partnerships (”MLPs”). The largest real asset investments were in diversified commodities (30%), gold bullion (20%), and agribusiness equities (20%).
May Positioning: Fully Invested and Mostly Bullish
RAAX remains fully invested across commodities, natural resource equities, and MLPs. As they were at launch, the largest weightings remain in diversified commodities (30%), gold bullion (20%), and agribusiness equities (20%). However, its allocation to gold equities now stands at 10%, increasing overall gold exposure to 30%.
We are bullish on most real assets. Based on the model’s analysis, diversified commodities, gold, agribusiness equities, MLPs, steel equities, oil services equities, and unconventional oil and gas equities are all well positioned to perform. We are bearish on Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), infrastructure, base metal equities, and coal equities.
Asset Class Weights
Source: VanEck. Data as of May 2, 2018.
This month we increased our exposure to gold equities and removed our exposure to coal equities. Another notable point is that we are bearish on two interest rate sensitive sectors, REITs and infrastructure, as interest rates continue to rise.
Remember, RAAX only invests in asset classes that the model is bullish on, and the weightings themselves are not an indication of conviction but a byproduct of a quantitative process that seeks to maximize diversification and minimize volatility. Let’s take a look at some of the reasons why RAAX maintains a bullish or bearish position on certain asset classes.
Gold
The model remains bullish, and overall exposure increased based on the portfolio diversification benefits that gold provides. Gold prices have been flat this year, but the precious metal has provided stability during periods of broad market stress.
Cumulative Growth of $10,000 of Gold and S&P 500 Index in 2018
Source: FactSet; Bloomberg. Data as of May 2, 2018. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investors cannot invest directly in an index.
Oil Services Equities
Research conducted here at VanEck has identified that oil price and the S&P 500 Index can be used to explain most of the performance of oil services stocks historically. Using these variables to generate an expected return for oil services stocks, we can look at the difference between this and the actual return of oil services stocks. Right now, based on these variables, oil services stocks are trading at a substantial discount, and the chart below shows that oil services stocks haven’t been this cheap since 2001.
Performance Variance of Oil Servicers and Key Independent Variables
Source: VanEck; FactSet; Bloomberg. Data as of April 2018. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Oil servicers measured by the MVIS U.S. Listed Oil Services 25 Index. Investors cannot invest directly in an index.
The model remains bullish on oil services stocks. Key bullish indicators include strong oil prices, reasonable volatility in oil services equities, and strong demand for natural gas. The chart below shows that oil prices are up 14.83% this year through April.
Cumulative Growth of $10,000 of Crude Oil in 2018
Source: FactSet. Data as of April 30, 2018. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Oil measured by West Texas Intermediary (WTI) oil price. Investors cannot invest directly in an index.
Coal Equities
At launch, RAAX had a small weighting to coal, but in May, this exposure was completely eliminated based on falling coal equity prices and weakening supply and demand data. Below is our economic composite for coal. It turned bearish at the end of April due to declining demand for coal in the U.S. and China, and declining production in the U.S.
Coal Economic Indicator Composite
Source: VanEck. Data as of April 30, 2018. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Coal equities measured by MVIS Global Coal Index. Investors cannot invest directly in an index.
A Closer Look at the What, When, and How
Step One: What to Own
The aphorism ”a rising tide lifts all boats” is appropriate here. April was a great month to invest in real assets. Each real asset in our investment universe and the approximated holding period return of the underlying index is listed below. The assets that we were bearish on are shaded.
Holding Period Return
April 10 – April 30, 2018
| Gold Equities | 1.42% | Oil Services Equities | 13.97% |
| Agribusiness Equities | 1.22% | Unconventional Oil & Gas Equities | 12.36% |
| Coal Equities | -1.78% | Global Metals & Mining Equities | 4.65% |
| Gold Bullion | -1.56% | Diversified Commodities | 3.60% |
| MLPs | 6.08% | REITs | 1.53% |
| Global Infrastructure | 1.53% | Steel Equities | 7.42% |
Source: Bloomberg; FactSet. Data as of April 30, 2018. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investors cannot invest directly in an index.
Step Two: When to be Invested
We were fully invested in April. This was the right call as real asset investments rallied. RAAX begins to raise a cash position when five or more assets become bearish. This is typically indicative of a systemic market event. RAAX has not raised cash since it launched.
Step Three: How to Allocate
Capital is allocated amongst assets on which the model is bullish on using an optimization process designed to maximize our diversification and minimize our volatility. In April, this resulted in a 50% exposure to commodities, a 45% exposure to natural resource equities, and a 5% exposure to MLPs. RAAX’s allocation in May has not changed drastically.
Monthly Asset Class Changes
| Asset Class | May-18 | Apr-18 | Change |
| Gold Equities | 10% | 5% | 5% |
| Diversified Commodities | 30% | 30% | 0% |
| Agribusiness Equities | 20% | 20% | 0% |
| Gold Bullion | 20% | 20% | 0% |
| Limited Partnerships | 5% | 5% | 0% |
| Service Equities | 5% | 5% | 0% |
| Cash | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Unconventional Oil & Gas Equities | 5% | 5% | 0% |
| Steel Equities | 5% | 5% | 0% |
| Estate Investment | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Global Infrastructure | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Metals and Mining Equities | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Coal Equities | 0% | 5% | -5% |
Source: VanEck. Data as of May 2, 2018.
As April winds down, markets remain on edge, with escalating tariffs and renewed trade tensions keeping volatility in focus. In this summary of our full-length newsletter, we spotlight gold and gold equities, both of which have surged to record levels. We also take a step back from the day-to-day noise in crypto to explore the broader shifts in the regulatory landscape in our latest Whitepaper and present Celestia in detail. Finally, we assess how Moat indexes have held up and evolved amid the turbulence.
Your VanEck Europe team wishes you a great read.
Featured Articles
🥇 Are Gold Mining Equities Regaining Attention Amid Rising Gold Prices?
Gold & Gold mining equities tend to shine during stress periods
Source: VanEck, World Gold Council.
Gold has attracted renewed interest from investors amid concerns about inflation, currency volatility, and overall market uncertainty. Gold mining companies have recently reported improved profit margins and cash generation, with some initiating share buybacks and maintaining relatively strong balance sheets. Despite these developments, many continue to trade below their historical valuation averages.
While historical trends indicate that gold and gold mining equities have outperformed during certain periods of market stress, these patterns may not repeat under different economic conditions. Performance can be influenced by a range of factors including interest rates, central bank policy, geopolitical developments, and investor sentiment.
→ Read more
⚖️ Whitepaper Highlights: How New Crypto Regulations May Shape the Future
Cryptocurrencies are entering a new era. With the re-election of Donald Trump and the implementation of the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation, digital assets are moving into a landscape defined not just by innovation, but also by regulatory clarity.
MiCA’s structured and transparent approach aims to promote legitimacy, safeguard investors, and enhance trust in digital asset markets across Europe. It could also serve as a blueprint for other jurisdictions looking to regulate crypto effectively.
→ Read the Whitepaper Highlights
⛓️ Introduction to Celestia
Most blockchains, like Ethereum or Bitcoin, are monolithic which means they perform all major functions (consensus, data availability, and execution) on a single layer. This design ensures security but according to new modular networks, limits scalability and flexibility.
The modular blockchain thesis, which Celestia is leading, proposes separation of layers and respective responsibilities in the network.
→ Read more
Note: This article in not accessible to our UK readers.
🌊 Riding the Gold Wave
Chasing the Vein: Fund Flows into Gold Miners
Source: Mining.com. Data as of 21 March 2025. Note: Data covers 493 funds with combined assets under management of $62 billion.
U.S. equity markets experienced significant declines during the month of March. Meanwhile, spot gold price recorded new all-time highs, surpassing the $3,000 per ounce mark on 14 March and closing at a record price of $3123.57 on March 31, a 9.30% ($265.73) monthly gain. As of 31 March, gold prices have risen by 93.61% over the past five years (1). Investors should keep in mind that past performance is not representative of future results.
The gold miners, as represented by the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDMNTR), outperformed significantly, up 15.51% during March (2). This gain reflects both their operational leverage to rising gold prices and market perceptions of relative value. However, gold miners can also be subject to heightened volatility, operational risks, and sensitivity to commodity price swings.
While gold and gold equities may serve as diversifiers in a portfolio due to their historically low correlations with many asset classes, investors should remain mindful of the inherent risks, including price volatility, currency movements, and shifts in investor sentiment that can lead to rapid reversals in performance.
→ Read more
🌪️ Moat Stocks Weather Tariff Tumble
Market turbulence in March weighed on stocks. The Moat Index was not immune to the market turmoil, as it declined along with the broad U.S. equity market ending the month lower. However, the Moat Index showed resilience relative to the S&P 500—thanks in part to defensive sector resilience and underweight exposure to mega-caps.
At the same time, the SMID Moat Index lagged small and mid-caps in March. Smaller U.S. stocks were also impacted by global trade tensions and economic growth concerns with the broad small- and mid-cap benchmarks falling during the month. However, year-to-date, the SMID Moat Index remains ahead of the broader small- and mid-cap markets.
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(1) Source: World Gold Council, ICE Data Services, FactSet Research Systems Inc.
(2) Source: Financial Times.
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