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Natural Gas ETPs See Surge of Inflows as Price Drop Viewed as Excessive
ETF Securities – Natural Gas ETPs See Surge of Inflows as Price Drop Viewed as Excessive. US payrolls surprised to the upside and China growth data also came in above expectations, creating a strong base for continued gains for cyclical assets. At the same time, the ECB cut its benchmark refinancing rate by 25ps to 0.25% sending the Euro sharply lower. The cut followed the release of October CPI showing that Eurozone inflation fell to 0.7% in October, the lowest level in nearly four years. While a stronger USD may continue to create headwinds for the gold price in the near term, we expect most other commodities and cyclical assets to benefit as the main reason for US dollar strength is the strength of the US (and global) economic recovery, which is positive for the more industrially-oriented commodities. We remain particularly positive copper and lead in the industrial metals sector and platinum and palladium within precious metals.
Long natural gas ETPs see third consecutive week of strong inflows, as investors appear to view recent price decline as excessive. Last week ETF Securities natural gas ETPs saw $15mn of inflows, bringing total inflows over the past three weeks to $41mn. Henry Hub gas prices have been falling on the back of warmer-than-normal temperatures in several parts of the US. However, with prices now back near the lower end of recent trading ranges and forecasts that US winter temperatures will be colder than usual, investors appear to be using the price declines as a good entry point.
Platinum and palladium ETPs receive combined inflows of almost US$10mn on a tighter market outlook. Strong manufacturing and growth numbers from China and the US, coupled with persistent supply uncertainty in South Africa, spurred PGM prices last week. US GDP growth and job numbers also came in higher than expected. With both markets expected to record a deficit this year we believe both platinum have positive price prospects.
Long gold ETPs record the biggest inflows in 10 weeks
totalling US$7.6mn, as investors remain concerned about the outlook for the Eurozone and a potential excessive rally in cyclical assets. With France’s credit rating cut to AA by S&P and the ECB having to deal with extremely low inflation and high unemployment, tail risks in Europe remain elevated, prompting investors to seek protection in gold.The extent of the recent rally in equity markets may also be starting to worry investors, causing some reallocations into gold as a hedge.
ETFS Aluminium (ALUM) saw US$57.9mn of outflows as investors remain concerned about continued large global aluminium surpluses. China is expected to produce a record 24mn tonnes of aluminium this year, according to Chalco, China’s largest producer. With China continuing to increase capacity instead of cutting production, prices have remained under pressure. Meanwhile, ETFS Daily Short Copper (SCOP) saw US$9.7mn of inflows last week.
Key events to watch this week
Industrial production numbers for India, Japan, EU and the US will be released this week, with better than expected data likely to benefit cyclical commodities. Q3 GDP data for the Eurozone, Germany and France will also be published this week providing a clearer picture of the extent (or lack thereof) of the European recovery. The Eurozone Finance Ministers meeting will also be monitored closely as Europe remains the biggest risk to global stability. Perhaps of greatest market interest in relation to the longer-term commodity outlook will be any new policy initiatives announced following China’s Third Plenum meeting.
Important Information
General
This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.
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IncomeShares passed three milestones in August. Assets under management climbed to almost $66 million, cumulative fund flows topped $72 million, and turnover across London and Xetra listings reached over $27 million. Palantir paid the highest annualised distribution yield at 57.11%. The sections below break the numbers down in more detail.
Cumulative fund flows
Fund flows track how much money investors put into or take out of IncomeShares ETPs (exchange-traded products). Positive flows mean more money coming in than going out – a sign of demand for the products.
Flows have risen every month this year. In January, they stood at $13.7 million. By the end of August, they reached $72.4 million. That’s over $8 million of new money added in August alone – the biggest increase since May.
Trading turnover
Turnover is the total dollar value of IncomeShares ETPs bought and sold on the exchanges. Higher turnover means more activity and liquidity for investors.
Turnover reached $27.3 million in August – the highest on record and more than double January’s $13.0 million. London listings (USD and GBP combined) made up $14.2 million, with Xetra listings close behind at $13.1 million. Both exchanges have seen steady increases through 2025, showing rising interest in income options strategies across the board.
Note: Figures use IDC FX rates as of the August month-end to convert GBP and EUR into USD. We apply the same August rates to all prior months to compare turnover on a like-for-like basis.
Assets under management (AUM)
AUM is the total value of assets held across all IncomeShares ETPs. It grows when new investors buy in, or when the underlying assets rise in value.
AUM grew from $13.8 million in January to $65.8 million at the end of August. It was also $8 million more than in July. Steady inflows and consistent income distributions are helping the product range build scale.
Distribution yields
Distribution yields represent the annualised income paid to investors as a percentage of the current NAV (net asset value), based on the latest month’s yield. IncomeShares ETPs aim to generate this income from selling options. Yields change each month depending on strategy performance and market volatility.
Annualised August yields (ranked highest to lowest):
• Palantir Options ETP (PLTY): 57.11%
• Nasdaq 100 Options ETP (QQQY): 46.44%
• Coinbase Options ETP (COIY): 43.60%
• AMD Options ETP (AMDY): 41.43%
• Tesla Options ETP (TSLI): 40.97%
• Broadcom Options ETP (AVGY): 40.96%
• MicroStrategy Options ETP (MSTY): 37.61%
• Alibaba Options ETP (BABY): 35.90%
• S&P 500 Options ETP (SPYY): 32.95%
• NVIDIA Options ETP (NVDI): 28.42%
• Alphabet Options ETP (GOOI): 18.15%
• Magnificent 7 Options ETP (MAGO): 16.87%
• Apple Options ETP (AAPPY): 15.55%
• 20+ Year Treasury Options ETP (TLTY): 12.38%
• Amazon Options ETP (AMZI): 12.00%
• Silver+ Yield Options ETP (SLVY): 11.56%
• Meta Options ETP (METY): 11.32%
• Gold+ Yield Options ETP (GLDI): 6.74%
• Microsoft Options ETP (MSFY): 6.54%
Our Palantir ETP topped the list with an annualised yield of 57.11% for August, up from 30.57% in July. The stock was volatile in August, trading between $142 and $190. That wider range increased option premiums, which boosted the ETP’s yield. The ETP sells put options on Palantir stock and holds shares – the strategy used for all our single stock ETPs and the Magnificent 7 product.
The Nasdaq 100 ETP paid an annualised yield of 46.44% in August, up slightly from 44.52% in July. At the other end, Gold+ and Microsoft stayed below 7%, reflecting relatively calmer conditions in their underlying assets.
The table below shows the annalised distribution yields for all IncomeShares ETPs so far this year. Note that the bottom eight ETPs launched in late June, so they only have yields for July and August.
Key takeaways
• Fund flows climbed to $72.4 million, with August adding more than $8 million.
• Turnover hit a record $27.3 million, split almost evenly between London and Xetra.
• Palantir topped the yield table at 57%, with Nasdaq 100 and Coinbase also paying above 40%.
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