Följ oss

Nyheter

Markets contained following Trump upset

Publicerad

den

Markets contained following Trump upset The market calm that has followed Trump’s victory is unlikely to persist in the medium term.

Trade Idea – FX Weekly – Markets contained following Trump upset

  • The market calm that has followed Trump’s victory is unlikely to persist in the medium term.
  • Political risks remain elevated in Europe and the shock result could garner momentum for anti-establishment populist parties ahead of key elections.
  • Safe haven assets and currencies are likely to remain well supported as uncertainty continues to characterise the financial landscape.

Against the odds

In a similar set up to the EU referendum, Donald Trump has managed to defy poll-based forecasts and betting odds to become the 45th president of the US. After capturing key electoral votes in swing states Florida and Ohio, Trump managed to secure victory in the early hours of Wednesday morning, shocking financial markets and sending risk assets tumbling. However in contrast to the aftermath of the EU referendum, the market moves that followed this shock result have been fairly muted (see Figure 1). Sharp rallies in safe havens assets during Asian trading hours were significantly tempered as a humble victory speech by Trump went some way to assuage market concerns and foster hopes of a more moderate President-elect. In the medium term, we do not expect the calm that has currently descended on markets to last, as elevated political uncertainty in the US and Europe sees risk-off sentiment dominate trading. This environment should continue to support the price of gold and keep safe haven currencies such as the JPY and CHF well bid against the US Dollar.

Policies unknown

The hope for many has always been that Trump’s controversial pledges made during his presidential campaign were merely aimed at garnering public support and were not a true reflection of his underlying political goals. His victory speech went some way towards this idea and assured investors of his intentions to pursue a more mainstream line as US president. However, the issue remains that aside from infrastructure spending, a considerable portion of his policies remain somewhat ambiguous. Should Trump emerge committed to protectionist policies and discriminatory immigration screening (ideas touted during his campaign), we would likely see an adverse market reaction as both policies would likely inhibit domestic and global growth.

Trump has also been a vocal critic of US Federal Reserve (Fed) chair, Janet Yellen, claiming that low interest rates have only been kept in place for as long as they have due to political influences. Should he promote a more hawkish approach to monetary policy in combination with his planned fiscal expansion, then in longer term the US Dollar is likely to receive support as long term US yields climb. However, for the moment this remains uncertain.

Populist contagion

Following Trump’s surprise victory it was reported that Marine Le Pen, leader of France’s far-right Front National party, was one of the first to congratulate the Republican candidate on his success. While this has no significance in isolation, it is an anecdotal reminder that Trump’s victory was another win for the anti-establishment that also prevailed during the EU referendum. The wider concern is that momentum mounts for nationalist parties in mainland Europe ahead of key elections scheduled in the next year. Should we see the likes of the Front National, Alternative for Germany and Five Star party gain in the polls in Europe then we may see some weakness surface for the common currency.

Investors wishing to express the investment views outlined above may consider using the following ETF Securities ETPs:

Currency ETPs

GBP Base

ETFS Long CHF Short GBP (GBCH)
ETFS Short CHF Long GBP (CHGB)
ETFS Long JPY Short GBP (GBJP)
ETFS Short JPY Long GBP (JPGB)

EUR Base

ETFS Long CHF Short EUR (EUCH)
ETFS Short CHF Long EUR (SCHE)
ETFS Long JPY Short EUR (SJPS)
ETFS Short JPY Long EUR (SJPL)

USD Base

ETFS Long CHF Short USD (LCHF)
ETFS Short CHF Long USD (SCHF)
ETFS Long JPY Short USD (LJPY)
ETFS Short JPY Long USD (SJPY)

3x

ETFS 3x Long CHF Short EUR (ECH3)
ETFS 3x Short CHF Long EUR (CHE3)
ETFS 3x Long JPY Short EUR (EJP3)
ETFS 3x Short JPY Long EUR (JPE3)
ETFS 3x Long JPY Short GBP (JPP3)
ETFS 3x Short JPY Long GBP (SYP3)
ETFS 3x Long JPY Short USD (LJP3)
ETFS 3x Short JPY Long USD (SJP3)

5x

ETFS 5x Long CHF Short EUR (5CH3)
ETFS 5x Short CHF Long EUR (5CHE)
ETFS 5x Long JPY Short EUR (EJP5)
ETFS 5x Short JPY Long EUR (JPE5)

Basket

ETFS Bullish USD vs G10 Currency Basket Securities (LUSB)
ETFS Bearish USD vs G10 Currency basket Securities (SUSB)

Physical Gold

ETFS Physical Gold (PHAU)
Gold Bullion Securities (GBS)
ETFS EUR Daily Hedged Physical Gold (GBSE)
ETFS GBP Daily Hedged Physical Gold (GBSP)

Important Information

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”). The products discussed in this document are issued by ETFS Foreign Exchange Limited (“FXL”), Gold Bullion Securities Limited (“GBS”), ETFS Metal Securities Limited (“MSL”) and ETFS Hedged Metal Securities Limited (“HMSL”). FXL, GBS, MSL and HMSL are regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission.

Fortsätt läsa
Annons
Klicka för att kommentera

Skriv en kommentar

Din e-postadress kommer inte publiceras. Obligatoriska fält är märkta *

Nyheter

Cryptoassets of the Month: May 2023

Publicerad

den

Cryptoassets of the Month: May 2023 Every month, our research team will present the cryptoassets of the month that increased or dropped in value by more than 15%. With a data-driven approach, we highlight the most important developments and events causing price movements.

Every month, our research team will present the cryptoassets of the month that increased or dropped in value by more than 15%. With a data-driven approach, we highlight the most important developments and events causing price movements.

Figure 1 – 30-Day Performance: Cryptoassets of the Month vs. Traditional Asset Classes

Data Source: 21Shares, CoinGecko, and Yahoo Finance, from 30-Apr-2023 to 31-May-2023 (Close Price)

Ethereum (ETH)

Ethereum traded down 0.57% over the past month. On May 15, Lido V2 went live, enabling users to withdraw their stETH (staked Ether). As of May 31, Lido has processed over 460k stETH withdrawals without voluntarily exiting a single validator. The protocol achieved this by implementing a buffer that accumulates ETH via daily deposits, partial withdrawals, and rewards. On the scaling front, Aztec revealed its “hybrid zk-rollup,” which will enable private smart contract execution, allowing users to protect their data and on-chain activity with programmable anonymity. Finally, Ethereum’s beacon chain suffered a technical issue that caused the network to stop finalizing blocks briefly.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin traded down 7.21% over the past month. On May 17, Tether announced it would use 15% of its monthly net operating profits (i.e., the realized gains from T-bills and similar investments) to buy Bitcoin. The move aims to diversify Tether’s reserve surplus. In addition, it could have a considerable effect on BTC’s structural supply and demand dynamics, as it can offset a significant portion of the selling pressure we can expect from the 41k BTC that the U.S. government intends to sell this year. On another front, transaction fees on the Bitcoin network rose five-fold from $23.5 million in April to $124 million in May, primarily driven by Ordinals and BRC-20 tokens.

Decentraland (MANA)

Decentraland (MANA) traded down 15.08% over the past month as activity in the decentralized virtual world waned significantly. About 2,740 unique wallet addresses interacted with Decentraland throughout May, down ~26% from April. In other news, on May 18, Decentraland DAO introduced “Decentraland Studios,” a platform to connect creators who want to build experiences on the platform but lack the technical skills to do it. This move is part of a broader trend in crypto attempting to lower the barrier of entry for new developers and creators.

Stacks (STX)

Stack’s native token STX traded down 16.47% over the past month. On May 23, ALEX – the most prominent decentralized exchange (DEX) on the Stacks network – introduced permissionless listings for BRC-20 tokens. Despite the combined market cap of BRC-20 tokens reaching close to $500 million, they mainly consist of “meme coins” because Bitcoin does not natively support smart contracts, nor is it designed for fast performance. Thus, Bitcoin needs Layer 2s like Stacks to be usable at scale and open the segway for new use cases. Regarding ecosystem traction, the Stacks networks reached 65,000 deployed smart contracts on May 25.

Avalanche (AVAX)

Avalanche’s native token AVAX traded down 17.85% over the past month despite exciting ecosystem developments. On May 24, Ava Labs announced AvaCloud, a launchpad that allows businesses to deploy custom, fully managed blockchains using an intuitive no-code portal. In addition, the AvaCloud product suite includes managed validators with automated installation for enhanced security, comprehensive data tools, and chain interoperability between all blockchains on the Avalanche network. If successful, the release could mark a paradigm shift in enterprise adoption by removing the complexity of building a public or private blockchain.

Algorand (ALGO)

Algorand’s native token ALGO traded down 18.34% over the past month, underperforming the broader market. The Algorand Foundation recently released AlgoKit, an application that handles the developer environment setup, project generation, and deployment. AlgoKit aims to lower the barrier of entry for developers entering the ecosystem. In this regard, attracting new talent is an area Algorand has struggled with – the blockchain had only 38 full-time developers as of April 2023, according to Electric Capital. The network’s inability to attract new talent may be worrisome as developer engagement is an early and leading indicator of value creation.

Fantom (FTM)

Fantom’s native token FTM traded down 26.28% over the past month. On May 8, the Fantom Hackathon Q2 2023 opened for submissions with a prize pool of over $300k for innovative dApps built on the blockchain. On May 17, the Fantom Foundation released Fantom Academy, a series of lessons for developers, including Solidity basics, token standards, and more. Finally, regarding ecosystem traction, Fantom became available on The Graph, allowing developers to leverage subgraphs to load data on the Fantom blockchain securely and reliably into their dApps.

Strategies of the Month: March 2023

Every month, our research team will also present the best-performing strategies of the month in our product suite. With a data-driven approach, we highlight the most important developments and events causing price movements.

Figure 2: 30-Day Performance: Strategies of the Month vs. Traditional Asset Classes Data

Source: 21Shares Index Management Console and Yahoo Finance, from 28-Apr-2023 to 31-May-2023 (Close Price)

SBTC

The 21Shares Short Bitcoin ETP (SBTC) rose 5.72% over the past month. SBTC seeks to provide a -1x return to the performance of Bitcoin for a single day. Despite its strong fundamentals, BTC’s implied annual volatility has consistently been above 70% and has experienced drawdowns from its all-time high of more than 80%. By comparison, the annual volatility of the S&P 500 sits around 20%. As a result, sophisticated investors with stringent risk-management practices may benefit from tactical short-term inverse exposure to BTC.

Research Newsletter

Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com

Disclaimer

The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.

Fortsätt läsa

Nyheter

Ett fantastiskt kvartal för midstream sektorn

Publicerad

den

VettaFis energiforskningschef Stacey Morris talar med Thomas Warner från Proactive om den senaste utvecklingen inom midstream-sektorn och i Alerian Midstream Energy Dividend UCITS ETF (JMLP). Han säger att det varit ett fantastiskt kvartal för midstream sektorn.

VettaFis energiforskningschef Stacey Morris talar med Thomas Warner från Proactive om den senaste utvecklingen inom midstream-sektorn och i Alerian Midstream Energy Dividend UCITS ETF (JMLP). Han säger att det varit ett fantastiskt kvartal för midstream sektorn.

Morris lyfter fram en stark resultatsäsong, med energiinfrastrukturföretag som överträffar förväntningarna och höjer vägledningen. Midstream-bolags stabila kassaflöden och solida utförande bidrog till deras motståndskraft och positiva utdelningstrender, vilket väckte intresse från allmänna investerare.

Hon pratar också om det senaste meddelandet om oljeproduktionsnedskärningar från Opec+, som hon tror kanske inte har en omedelbar inverkan på midstream, men som i slutändan kan visa sig gynnsam för sektorn.

Handla JMLP ETF

HANetf Alerian Midstream Energy Dividend UCITS ETF (JMLP ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond som handlas på bland annat London Stock Exchange och tyska Xetra.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet och Avanza.

Fortsätt läsa

Nyheter

Senatens godkända kärnenergiproposition ger bränsle i uranindustrin

Publicerad

den

Genomgången av en kärnenergiproposition orsakade en uppgång i aktiekurserna för företag inom uranindustrin. Cameco Corporation, det största företaget inom uranindustrin, ökade med 14 procent under de senaste tre handelssessionerna.

Genomgången av en kärnenergiproposition orsakade en uppgång i aktiekurserna för företag inom uranindustrin. Cameco Corporation, det största företaget inom uranindustrin, ökade med 14 procent under de senaste tre handelssessionerna.

Som svar på antagandet av kärnkraftslagstiftningen har aktiekurserna för uranprospekterings-, utvinnings- och bearbetningsföretag stigit kraftigt.

Global X Uranium ETF (URA), en amerikansk ETF, har även skjutit i höjden med 10 procent under de senaste tre handelssessionerna, eftersom den amerikanska regeringen har för avsikt att öka investeringarna i branschen under de kommande åren.

Vad hände: Den 1 juni antog Senatens kommitté för miljö och offentliga arbeten (EPW) den bipartisan ADVANCE Act, en kärnenergiproposition avsedd att positionera USA som en global ledare inom kärnteknik och energi.

Lagstiftningen, som infördes av Senator Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV), ordförande Tom Carper (D-DE), Senator Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI), syftar till att uppmuntra utveckling och användning av ny kärnteknik.

Varför det är viktigt: ADVANCE Act har potential att främja marknadstillväxt och prestanda inom kärnenergisektorn, eftersom den ger Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) de verktyg och resurser som krävs för att underlätta en säker och konkurrenskraftig utveckling av kärnteknik i Förenta staterna.

Det kommer att minska regleringskostnaderna, stimulera nästa generations reaktorer och effektivisera tillståndsförfarandet för kärnkraftsanläggningar på brunfältsanläggningar.

Capito konstaterade, ”Från både nationell säkerhet och energioberoende synvinkel har USA allt att vinna genom att bli världsledande inom kärnenergi, och idag tog vi ett viktigt steg mot att uppnå det målet.”

Handla NUKL ETF

VanEck Uranium and Nuclear Technologies UCITS ETF A (NUKL ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och London Stock Exchange. Av den anledningen förekommer olika kortnamn på samma börshandlade fond.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet och Avanza.

Handla U3O8 ETF

HANetf Sprott Uranium Miners UCITS ETF Acc (U3O8 ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Borsa Italiana, Deutsche Boerse Xetra och London Stock Exchange. Av den anledningen förekommer olika kortnamn på samma börshandlade fond.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet och Avanza.

Handla URNU ETF

Global X Uranium UCITS ETF USD Accumulating (URNU ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Borsa Italiana och Deutsche Boerse Xetra. Av den anledningen förekommer olika kortnamn på samma börshandlade fond.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet och Avanza.

Fortsätt läsa

Populära