Industrial Metals Rally on Chinese Data and Stimulus – ETF Securities Commodity ETP Weekly

•    Third consecutive week of inflows into long oil ETPs.

•    ETFS Nickel (NICK) sees largest outflows since January on profit taking.

•    Rising US dollar and Greece’s survival in the currency union weigh on precious metal prices

China’s better than expected GDP reading for Q2 helped industrial metals (with the exception of copper) gain. Policy stimulus in the country is likely to see demand continue to remain solid, while cuts to mining capex will help tighten the supply-demand balance further in the months ahead. The Chinese central bank announced its gold holdings for the first time since 2009 last week, revealing a 57% increase from its last announcement. It confirms that China’s official sector demand for the metal is strong and forms part of its US dollar diversification programme. A mixture of profit-taking and performance disappointment in the case of gold drove outflows from commodity ETPs this week.

Third consecutive week of inflows into long oil ETPs. Bargain-hunting continued with WTI and Brent slipping a further 3.5% and 1.9% respectively. A landmark deal struck between Iran and world superpowers to lift sanctions against the country opens the prospect of increasing oil supply from Iran. While it will take time for Iran to build the infrastructure to materially increase production, according to the IEA Iran has 17 million barrels of oil ready to ship and further 22 million of condensate that will weigh on prices in the short-term. An antagonized Saudi Arabia will also continue to pump oil at a break-neck pace to protect its market share and make it difficult for Iran to rebuild. The upshot is that high cost producers elsewhere will have to accelerate their plans to cut back on production. Prices should eventually rebound when supply is cut, and that is what ETP investors have positioned for. We saw US$16.3mn of inflows into long WTI ETPs and US$2.8mn of inflows into long Brent WTI ETPs. At the same time we saw US$6.3mn and US$3.1mn outflows from WTI and Brent short oil ETPs, respectively.

ETFS Nickel (NICK) sees largest outflows since January on profit taking. US$14.1mn outflows from nickel followed the 1.2% gain in price as Chinese data lifted the industrial metals complex.

Rising US dollar and Greece’s survival in the currency union weigh on precious metal prices. Greece managed to pass an austerity budget through parliament, satisfying its creditors’ condition for more bailout money. Meanwhile the ECB confirmed it will be dolling out a further €900mn in Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) to its troubled banks, a step which will help its banks reopen. The new support increases the chances Greece be able to pay the €3.49bn it owes ECB today. Gold, historically a hedge against worst-case scenarios materialising, fell 1.7% last week, and slumped a more than 1.5% today. However, it had failed to gain any traction even when Grexit risks were at their highest. Meanwhile Federal Reserve Chair Yellen’s confirmation that the US central bank is keen to raise interest rates at a measured pace this year led to US dollar strength, weighing on all commodities – particularly the precious metals complex. Investor faith in gold as a haven asset faded further with US$175.6mn of outflows from long gold ETPs last week. However, with German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble putting Grexit back on the political agenda on Friday, we fear that we are not out of the woods yet on the Greek debt saga.

In contrast to gold, the 2.9% fall in silver prices (0.5% further today) was seen as a bargain hunting opportunity as the metal’s industrial qualities bode well for demand in an environment of continued cyclical growth (the precondition for interest rate increases). US$3.3mn flowed into long silver ETPs.

Video Presentation

Nitesh Shah, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.

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