Följ oss

Nyheter

FUD vs. Fundamentals: What Happened This Week in Crypto?

Publicerad

den

Fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) have clouded Ethereum's business prospects after CoinDesk reported on March 20 that Ethereum’s Github repository seemed to confirm rumors about ongoing investigations by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). If true, this could be business as usual for the regulator as it nears its deadline for a decision on ETH spot ETFs on May 23. Nevertheless, statements about the investigations are vague and ambiguous, whether they're focused on the Ethereum Foundation or the companies dealing with it, making it a curious case to monitor closely.

• Ethereum: FUD vs. Fundamentals

• Arbitrum Doubles Down on Dencun’s Cost-Efficiency

• Optimism Strides Towards Full Decentralization

• Can This Major Upgrade Help Fantom Level Up With Solana?

Ethereum: FUD vs. Fundamentals

Fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) have clouded Ethereum’s business prospects after CoinDesk reported on March 20 that Ethereum’s Github repository seemed to confirm rumors about ongoing investigations by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). If true, this could be business as usual for the regulator as it nears its deadline for a decision on ETH spot ETFs on May 23. Nevertheless, statements about the investigations are vague and ambiguous, whether they’re focused on the Ethereum Foundation or the companies dealing with it, making it a curious case to monitor closely.

How did the market react? Nothing dramatic. In the past week, despite Ethereum experiencing a 10% drop on the day of Coindesk’s report, it quickly recovered the following day with a 10% rebound and shrugging off the uncertainty, ultimately closing the week with a modest 1.78% gain. The below on-chain metrics are also worth noting:

• ETH deposits on centralized exchanges increased by ~3%, well within the 3-5% average increases seen in May 2021, 2022, and 2023, which is understandable as investors capitalize on reaching the $4K milestone.

• The market-value-to-realized-value (MVRV) is one of crypto’s leading on-chain indicators comparing Ethereum’s current market price to its historical average transaction price, to estimate its valuation based on past trends.. As shown in Figure 1, the MVRV went from 2.23 on March 13 to 1.65 on March 24, indicating that the network continues to be undervalued when compared to previous bull runs. For example, in May 2021, the MVRV Z-score was at 5.57 when Ethereum traded at around $3.9K.

Figure 1: Ethereum’s MVRV Z-Score (7D Moving Average)

Source: Glassnode

On a more positive note, the biggest news for Ethereum was arguably BlackRock’s announcement of tokenizing treasury bonds and repo agreements. The asset manager has partnered with Securitize as a transfer agent and tokenization platform to launch their yield-bearing fund, BUIDL, on top of Ethereum. As shown in Figure 2, Ethereum accounts for 80.33% of tokenized assets, if we exclude fiat-collateralized stablecoins. BlackRock has joined the likes of Franklin Templeton and Citigroup, among others, in tokenizing real-world assets. The deployment on Ethereum reiterates our thesis that the network will continue playing a vital role across the tokenization realm. So far, there has been a total of over $2 billion worth of commodities and government securities, among other traditional assets tokenized on several networks. Thanks to blockchain technology, these tokenized assets boast several advantages over their traditional form due to their transparency, around-the-clock trading, and faster settlement.

Figure 2: Tokenization Market Share by Chain

Source: 21.co on Dune Analytics

On the fundamental side, Ethereum’s core developers have launched an initiative called “pump the gas” to raise the gas block limit from 30 to 40 million (and even more), decreasing gas fees on Ethereum’s mainnet by as much as 33%. The gas block limit is the maximum amount of gas that all transactions combined can consume within a single block. The discussion of expanding the gas block limit has been up for debate since Vitalik brought it up in January 2024. However, some are not in favor of the initiative, arguing that EIP-4844 has already increased the block size and that it could lead to potential risks of network spam and attacks.

Arbitrum Doubles Down on Dencun’s Cost-Efficiency

With Optimism, Base, and Arbitrum all witnessing transaction fees drop by over 90% post-Dencun’s activation, the total number of transacting addresses across their networks has almost doubled since then, as seen below in Figure 3. However, Arbitrum has taken a step further by introducing the ATLAS upgrade, aiming to drive fees down even more. Specifically, ATLAS decreased what’s known as the “L1 surplus fees” from 32 gwei to zero while lowering the L2 base fees from 0.1 to 0.01 gwei, helping the network achieve a median transaction fee of ~$0.002, the lowest since October 2022. Applications built on Arbitrum can reap the benefit of the upgrade right away without any modifications from their end, while L3 networks built on top of Arbitrum, using its Orbit framework, need to implement the upgrade to capitalize on the blob posting mechanism to experience lower fees.

Figure 3: Number of Transacting Addresses across Base vs. Optimism vs, Arbitrum

Source: msibl7 on Dune

Optimism Strides Towards Full Decentralization

On the other hand, Optimism is progressing towards its vision of full decentralization. For context, the network currently relies on a single sequencer, a validator that posts transaction data from Optimism on Ethereum, run by the Optimism Foundation itself. This sequencer is overseen by an elected security council, which acts as a custodian managing the protocol upgrades and the security of the network by ensuring that the sequencer is acting honestly, amongst other security-related tasks. This means that only a handful of eight elected individuals can contest the validity of transactions if they suspect any malicious behavior. Nevertheless, this was a temporary setup until Optimism released its “Fault Proof” system, which determines the validity of transactions before they’re posted on Ethereum’s mainnet. This enables a proactive rather than a reactive approach to maintaining transaction integrity. In line with this, Optimism rolled out the second iteration of the system on Sepolia testnet after releasing the first in October of last year, with the full launch expected later this year, where anyone can submit a fault-proof and dispute the validity of transactions.

Can This Major Upgrade Help Fantom Level Up With Solana?

The Ethereum alternative blockchain is set to implement its upcoming Sonic upgrade in the spring of 2024. Although the date isn’t determined yet, the next network iteration will position Fantom as one of the most scalable networks within the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) ecosystem, capable of rivaling Solana’s efficiency. Namely, Sonic introduces the Fantom Virtual Machine (FVM), a new operating system facilitating close to 2000 transactions per second (TPS) based on the latest testnet results while adopting parallelization to enhance transaction throughput. Further, Sonic achieves transaction finality in under a second, with transaction fees costing less than a cent while introducing Carmen, a new database model that reduces the storage costs for validators by close to 90%. This enables them to participate in the network’s security validation in a cost-effective manner while expediting the time required for the foundation to spin up a new archival validator node from several weeks to 36 hours.

All in all, the excitement in anticipation of the upgrade can be seen with Fantom’s price growing by 200% over the last 30 days, while its DEX trading volume has surged by close to 12-fold, growing from $5M and peaking at $60M last week. Fantom’s stablecoin assets under management has also increased by about 150% over the same period since the lows of October 2023, implying that new users are increasingly depositing capital into the network to experiment with its ecosystem, akin to what was seen during the run-up of the ETF-led rally last October. Nevertheless, Fantom shows promising growth prospects as its P/E ratio continues to decrease despite its recent price gains, as shown below in Figure 4. This indicates that transaction volume and network utilization are outpacing its market capitalization growth, potentially implying that Fantom remains relatively undervalued.

Figure 4: NVT: The P/E-Equivalent of Blockchain Networks

Source: Glassnode

Bookmarks

Have you read our latest report, The Bitcoin Halving and Beyond? Click here to get a digital copy.

This Week’s Calendar

Source: Forex Factory, 21Shares

Research Newsletter

Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com

Disclaimer

The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.

Fortsätt läsa
Annons
Klicka för att kommentera

Skriv en kommentar

Din e-postadress kommer inte publiceras. Obligatoriska fält är märkta *

Nyheter

Crypto Market Espresso | 23. May 2024

Publicerad

den

• The SEC has just approved the spot Ethereum ETFs in the US - we expect approximately 1.65 bn USD potential net inflows into US Ethereum ETFs 3 months after trading launch

• The SEC has just approved the spot Ethereum ETFs in the US – we expect approximately 1.65 bn USD potential net inflows into US Ethereum ETFs 3 months after trading launch

• If we assumed the historical ”performance multiplier” of 6.15 to Ethereum flows to be true, then a ~15% increase in global Ethereum ETF AuM would be associated with ~92% performance

• The approval marks a significant shift in sentiment within the SEC and among US regulators in general but US investors still received inferior investment vehicles compared to European vehicles

6.5 years

The SEC has just approved spot Ethereum ETFs for trading in the US.
Although the exact date of trading launch is unknown and could take a few months, this approval marks a significant shift in sentiment within the SEC and US regulators in general.

The Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) was launched on 14 December 2017. It was the first investment vehicle that allowed professional investors to gain exposure to the second largest cryptoasset – Ethereum.

Nearly 6.5 years later, US investors finally have a more efficient investment vehicle to participate in Ethereum’s performance.

US ETF issuers made last-minute adjustments to their 19b-4 filings to meet the final deadline for the SEC’s decision on VanEck’s spot Ethereum ETF application, which was due on 23 May.

Bloomberg ETF analysts had previously commented that approval could come as early as Wednesday this week, beating consensus expectations for a later approval date. Other applicants included the same companies that applied for a spot bitcoin ETF previously, such as iShares and Fidelity.

The sudden increase in approval odds caught many by surprise, as Bloomberg ETF analysts unexpectedly raised their approval odds from 25% to 75% after the SEC asked exchanges to expedite their 19b-4 filings. Meanwhile, the odds of approval by the end of May on popular betting sites also jumped to over 50%, up from 10% just a few days earlier.

This unexpected rise in approval odds also surprised Ethereum futures short sellers, causing short liquidations in Ethereum futures contracts to surge to their highest level since March.

This caused the price of Ethereum to jump more than 10% in a matter of hours,
reversing much of its underperformance against bitcoin this year.

So, the market had already started to anticipate a potential approval.

But what’s next?

How many fund flows should we expect?

Many market observers have tried to guide down expectations for an Ethereum ETF trading launch.

The reason is that the Ethereum spot ETF approval is coming after a bonanza in fund flows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs which is why Bloomberg ETF analysts expect only around 10%-15% of Bitcoin ETF flows to flow into Ethereum ETFs.

At the time of writing, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have already seen cumulative net fund inflows in the amount of +13.2 bn USD since trading launch on the 11th of January 2024.

12.5% of that amount would imply approximately 1.65 bn USD potential net inflows into US Ethereum ETFs.

This amount would currently be equivalent to ~15% of current global Ethereum ETP assets-under-management (AuM) or around 0.7% of Ethereum’s realized cap, i.e. the amount invested on-chain.

What could be the price effect of this approval?

Nonetheless, this amount of capital could potentially still have a very significant impact on Ethereum’s performance going forward.

The reason is that Ethereum’s performance has shown a significantly higher sensitivity to global ETP flows than Bitcoin in the past.

While Bitcoin’s performance sensitivity to global ETP flows was around ~1.0, Ethereum’s performance has shown an average sensitivity of around 6.15 to global ETP flows in the past.

In other words, an increase of global ETH ETP AuM by 1% per week was associated with an average ETH/USD performance of 6.15% per week.

Now, if we assumed the abovementioned ”multiplier” of 6.15 to be true, then a ~15% increase in global Ethereum ETF AuM would be associated with ~92% performance!

That being said, the sensitivity of Ethereum’s performance to weekly ETP flows can vary significantly over time and has been around ~10.5 more recently.

As a caveat, keep in mind that correlation does not imply causation and that higher net inflows could possibly not cause increases in price.

More specifically, we estimate that global Ethereum ETP flows could only explain around 19.6% in the variation of Ethereum over the past 6 months. So, other factors such as macro or coin-specific factors have played a larger role.

What’s special about these Ethereum ETFs?

The approval marks a significant shift in sentiment within the SEC and US regulators more general. The recent passing of the “crypto bill” in the US senate has demonstrated that there is bipartisan consensus on the importance of cryptoassets for the United States.

The fact that the Trump campaign has recently started accepting crypto donations for campaign finance speaks volumes in this regard as Trump had personally shown a rather anti-crypto stance in the past.

Thus, viewed more broadly within the context of recent domestic political developments in the US, this approval could be evidence of a more mainstream acceptance of cryptoassets as a legitimate asset class.

However, US investors still receive a suboptimal investment vehicle for Ethereum:
The creation-redemption mechanism is still not done in kind and staking has not been allowed within the filings. Thus, US investors won’t be able to fully capture Ethereum’s total return profile via staking returns that currently amount to around 3.2% p.a.

European investors are once again better served with products that allow investors to participate in these total returns such as the ETC Group Ethereum Staking ETP.

Bottom Line

• The SEC has just approved the spot Ethereum ETFs in the US – we expect approximately 1.65 bn USD potential net inflows into US Ethereum ETFs 3 months after trading launch

• If we assumed the historical ”performance multiplier” of 6.15 to Ethereum flows to be true, then a ~15% increase in global Ethereum ETF AuM would be associated with ~92% performance

• The approval marks a significant shift in sentiment within the SEC and among US regulators in general but US investors still received inferior investment vehicles compared to European vehicles

This is not investment advice. Capital at risk. Read the full disclaimer

© ETC Group 2019-2024 | All rights reserved

Fortsätt läsa

Nyheter

Ny aktiv ETF från First Trust på Xetra

Publicerad

den

Från och med går handlas en ny börshandlad fond, en aktiv ETF från First Trust på Xetra och via handelsplatsen Börse Frankfurt.

Från och med går handlas en ny börshandlad fond, en aktiv ETF från First Trust på Xetra och via handelsplatsen Börse Frankfurt.

First Trust Vest U.S. Equity Moderate Buffer UCITS ETF – May (GMAY) driver en aktivt förvaltad investeringsstrategi med syftet att spåra resultatet för S&P 500 Index upp till ett fast uppsidatak. Samtidigt strävar fonden efter att minimera förluster (buffert) för de första 15-procentiga kursfallen i slutet av den definierade målperioden på ett kalenderår. Investeringsförvaltaren investerar hela tillgången i FLEX-optioner, som både säljs och köpoptioner.

Buffertstrategin börjar och slutar i maj varje år och balanseras sedan om genom att fonden investerar i ett nytt paket med FLEX-optioner. Taket beräknas på första referensdatum beroende på marknadsförhållanden, medan bufferten alltid ligger oförändrad på 15 procent. Det aktuella taket och buffertdetaljerna finns tillgängliga på First Trusts webbplats.

NamnISINAvgiftUtdelningspolicy
First Trust Vest U.S. Equity Moderate Buffer UCITS ETF – MayIE000P0FL8E30,85Ackumulerande

Produktutbudet i Deutsche Börses XTF-segment omfattar för närvarande totalt 2 163 ETFer. Med detta urval och en genomsnittlig månatlig handelsvolym på cirka 14 miljarder euro är Xetra den ledande handelsplatsen för ETFer i Europa.

Fortsätt läsa

Nyheter

JSUD ETF köper amerikanska företag som följer Parisavtalet

Publicerad

den

JPMorgan US Research Enhanced Index Equity SRI Paris Aligned UCITS ETF USD (dist) (JSUD ETF), med ISIN IE0002UMVXQ1 är en aktivt förvaltad ETF.

JPMorgan US Research Enhanced Index Equity SRI Paris Aligned UCITS ETF USD (dist) (JSUD ETF), med ISIN IE0002UMVXQ1 är en aktivt förvaltad ETF.

JP Morgan US Research Enhanced Index Equity SRI Paris Aligned Strategy investerar i amerikanska företag. ETF strävar efter att generera en högre avkastning än MSCI USA SRI EU PAB Overlay ESG Custom-index. Aktierna som ingår filtreras enligt ESG-kriterier (miljö, social och bolagsstyrning). Dessutom beaktas EU:s direktiv om klimatskydd.

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,20 % p.a. JPMorgan US Research Enhanced Index Equity SRI Paris Aligned UCITS ETF USD (dist) är den billigaste och största ETF som följer JP Morgan US Research Enhanced Index Equity SRI Paris Aligned index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom samplingsteknik (köper ett urval av de mest relevanta indexbeståndsdelarna). Utdelningarna i ETFen delas ut till investerarna (Årligen).

ETF lanserades den 9 augusti 2023 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Investeringsmål

Delfondens mål är att uppnå en långsiktig avkastning som överstiger MSCI USA SRI EU PAB Overlay ESG Custom Index* (”riktmärket”) genom att aktivt investera i huvudsak i en portfölj av amerikanska företag samtidigt som man anpassar sig till målen för Parisavtalet.

Riskprofil

Värdet på aktierelaterade värdepapper kan sjunka såväl som upp som svar på enskilda företags resultat och allmänna marknadsförhållanden, ibland snabbt eller oförutsägbart. Om ett företag går i konkurs eller en liknande finansiell omstrukturering förlorar dess aktier vanligtvis det mesta eller hela sitt värde.

Uteslutning av företag som inte uppfyller vissa kriterier från delfondens investeringsuniversum kan leda till att delfonden presterar annorlunda jämfört med liknande fonder som inte har en sådan policy.

Delfonden strävar efter att ge en avkastning över Benchmark; Delfonden kan dock prestera sämre än jämförelseindexet.

Handla JSUD ETF

JPMorgan US Research Enhanced Index Equity SRI Paris Aligned UCITS ETF USD (dist) (JSUD ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och London Stock Exchange.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
gettexEURJSUD
London Stock ExchangeUSDJSUD
XETRAEURJSUD

Största innehav

NamnISINLandVikt %
MICROSOFT CORPUS5949181045USA7.71%
APPLE INCUS0378331005USA7.24%
NVIDIA CORPUS67066G1040USA4.27%
AMAZON.COM INCUS0231351067USA3.46%
TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INCUS8825081040USA2.30%
ADOBE INCUS00724F1012USA2.22%
ZOETIS INCUS98978V1035USA2.19%
AUTOMATIC DATA PROCESSINGUS0530151036USA1.94%
DANAHER CORPUS2358511028USA1.66%
MASTERCARD INC – AUS57636Q1040USA1.65%

Innehav kan komma att förändras

Fortsätt läsa

Populära