• Expanding Geopolitical Conflict Throws Crypto in Turmoil, Hong Kong ETFs Revive Hope

• Ethereum’s Most Anticipated Application of the Year is Live

Expanding Geopolitical Conflict Throws Crypto in Turmoil, Hong Kong ETFs Revive Hope

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released last Wednesday revealed a hotter-than-expected inflation rate of 3.5%, exceeding forecasts of 3.4%. This marks the fourth consecutive month where inflation has surpassed expectations, dimming hopes of rate cuts in the near future, resulting in a sustained high interest environment. This is further evidenced by interest rate futures currently pricing in just two rate cuts for the entirety of 2024, a significant shift from four months ago, when markets were predicting a more hawkish approach. Further, the conflict between Iran and Israel escalated more this weekend, as Iran launched a drone strike towards Israel, who are said to be potentially preparing for ‘retaliation’. This rise in geopolitical tensions coincided with a decline in the crypto market as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) prices fell by 8.22% and 11.29% respectively.

That said, it’s worth remembering that Bitcoin is viewed as a flight to safety during geopolitical conflicts. For instance, BTC grew by almost 17% during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This was driven by the fact that the average Russian citizen was able to withdraw their capital out of banks promptly before the imposed sanctions. Similarly, Ukrainians leveraged Bitcoin’s decentralized nature to navigate the overall shutdown of their financial system, while leveraging it to resume raising donations, showcasing its value as a decentralized and globally accessible asset immune to disruptions.

However, Bitcoin’s response to Iran’s recent escalation may have been adverse. This is given the gravity and the complexity of the geopolitical situation and its potential to entangle several other actors into the conflict, potentially affecting a broader swath of the world, including global trade and economic stability. Nevertheless, Bitcoin’s properties uniquely position it to serve a dual function as both a risk-on and risk-off asset. This duality could explain why its behavior diverged from that of gold in recent days, facing a drawdown last week versus benefiting from Russia’s conflict in 2022, as shown below in Figure 1.

Figure 1: BTC vs Gold Performance in 2022 vs 2024 – On a Weekly Timeframe

Source: TradingView

Finally, while the industry showed signs of a tentative recovery following last week’s economic challenges, evidenced by BTC soaring to nearly $67K on Monday, it’s crucial to maintain vigilance and closely monitor Israel’s response as it could have additional repercussions on the global market. Bitcoin faces a pivotal week with the highly anticipated Bitcoin Halving event scheduled in just four days, which will cut the issuance of new BTC in half, further tightening its already limited supply. This scarcity narrative is often seen as a bullish signal, which potentially bolsters Bitcoin’s position as a store of value and a hedge against inflation, as investors seek refuge in the current environment.

Adding to the positive sentiment, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) recently granted conditional approval for the launch of the first spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. The investment vehicle could unlock up to $25B in demand from Chinese investors via the Southbound Stock Connect program, according to Matrixport. The approval could also expand BTC’s market penetration into the wealth management sector in Hong Kong valued at $1.15T. The combined effect of the halving and the ETF approvals could provide a much-needed boost to the industry’s current momentum. A trend which is evident in Figure 2 below, indicating that flows into BTC have remained positive since the beginning of the year.

Figure 2 – *BTC Monthly Balance Change vs BTC Monthly Issuance vs ETF Cumulative Flows

Source: Glassnode

*Monthly Balance Change includes different cohort of investors that hold >1, >10, >100, >1K BTC

Ethereum’s Most Anticipated Application of the Year is Live

EigenLayer, a protocol that allows ETH users to “re-stake” their existing staked ETH to validate the security of external networks known as Actively Validated Services (AVS), has finally deployed on mainnet. EigenLayer has been long anticipated as it enables capital efficiency by allowing users to earn additional yield on top of their ETH staking yield. Further, it allows younger protocols to borrow the security assurances of Ethereum. This is crucial, as it circumvents the need for non-established protocols to develop their own security measures from scratch. This translates to a more cost-efficient approach while simultaneously bolstering their decentralization, as newer projects can anchor their security to Ethereum’s.

By opting to earn additional yield, users subject themselves to heightened smart contract risks, as they become exposed to the vulnerabilities of both Ethereum and the additional protocol relying on its security. Further, a large portion of ETH could end up being “re-staked” in EigenLayer instead of just validating the security of Ethereum, creating a problem of misalignment. In simpler terms, some validators might focus on maximizing their profits by pursuing strategies that prioritize short-term gains over the long-term security of the network. Moreover, the growing enthusiasm for the protocol suggests that a significant portion of the crypto economy might rely on Ethereum’s security assurances. Currently, 14% of all staked ETH is being allocated towards Eigen’s re-staking strategy. The continuation of this trend could lead to centralization, posing a risk as Ethereum might inadvertently become a single point of failure over a longer time horizon.

Wide-spread slashing is another concern. In essence, if a substantial amount of ETH is restaked in a single protocol, then a slashing event due to malicious or unintended behavior could significantly impact honest ETH stakers. Thus, Eigen proposed a slashing committee, comprising esteemed ETH developers and trusted community members, empowered to veto such occurrences and safeguard Ethereum’s integrity.

The final risk concerns a new breed of tokens known as Liquid Restaking Tokens (LRTs), which operate atop EigenLayer. LRTs, akin to Liquid Staking Tokens (LSTs) issued by the established Lido protocol in 2021, aim to unlock similar capital efficiency by allowing users to use their re-staked ETH as collateral for lending and borrowing. Given that restaked ETH in Eigen can’t be used across DeFi platforms, users have turned to LRT protocols like Ether.fi and Renzo to seek higher levels of capital flexibility, with their restaked assets. For context, LRTs grew exponentially by a factor of 28 throughout Q1, increasing from nearly 100K units to the current figure of 2.8M, as can be seen below in Figure 3, showing its soaring demand.

Figure 3 – Growth of Liquid Restaking Tokens (LRTs) on EigenLayer

Source: @yulia_is_here on Dune

While LRTs can offer amplified gains through leveraged lending, they can also exacerbate losses, potentially increasing systemic risk in market downturns. Since some LRT protocols can’t offer withdrawal yet, users may be forced to swap their LRT token into ETH on thinly traded secondary markets and intensify their drawdowns.

All in all, the impact of Eigenlayer is not to be understated, as the excitement surrounding the new primitive has propelled it to become the second largest protocol on Ethereum by Total Value Locked (TVL), boasting an impressive $12.6B. This already eclipses the TVL of established players like Solana by fourfold, highlighting the immense potential and adoption that EigenLayer is witnessing despite its brief existence. Further, the excitement building up to its launch since they unveiled their roadmap in March has propelled the Ethereum validator entry queue to its highest level since September. The queue now necessitates a minimum waiting period of ~12 days before new validators can join the network, as seen below in Figure 4. Nevertheless, keep an eye out as we prepare to release a more in-depth exploration of EigenLayer risks over the coming weeks.

Figure 4: Ethereum Validator Entry Queue in Days

Source: ValidatorQueue

Bookmarks

Have you read our latest report, The Bitcoin Halving and Beyond? Click here to get a digital copy.

This Week’s Calendar

Source: Forex Factory, 21Shares

Research Newsletter

Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com

Disclaimer

The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.

HSBC FTSE EPRA NAREIT Developed UCITS ETF USD (Acc) (H4Z7 ETF) med ISIN IE000G6GSP88, försöker följa FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed-indexet. FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Index följer de största fastighetsbolagen på världens utvecklade aktiemarknader.

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,24 % p.a. HSBC FTSE EPRA NAREIT Developed UCITS ETF USD (Acc) är den billigaste ETF som följer FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed-index. Denna ETF replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom full replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i ETFen ackumuleras och återinvesteras.

HSBC FTSE EPRA NAREIT Developed UCITS ETF USD (Acc) är en liten ETF med tillgångar på 38 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 19 juli 2022 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Investeringsmål

Fonden strävar efter att så nära som möjligt följa avkastningen för FTSE EPRA NAREIT Developed Index (”Indexet”). Fonden kommer att investera i eller få exponering mot aktier i företag som utgör indexet.

Investeringspolicy

Indexet består av de största börsnoterade fastighetsbolagen och real estate investment trusts (REITS) på världens utvecklade aktiemarknader, enligt definitionen av indexleverantören. Fonden kommer att förvaltas passivt och har som mål att investera i aktierna av företagen i i stort sett samma andel som i Index. Det kan dock finnas omständigheter då det inte är möjligt eller praktiskt för fonden att investera i alla indexets beståndsdelar.

Om fonden inte kan investera direkt i de företag som utgör indexet kan den få exponering genom att använda andra investeringar som depåbevis, derivat eller fonder. Fonden kan investera upp till 35 % av sina tillgångar i värdepapper från en enda emittent under exceptionella marknadsförhållanden. Fonden kan investera upp till 10 % av sina tillgångar i totalavkastningsswappar och kontrakt för skillnad. Fonden kan investera upp till 10 % av sina tillgångar i andra fonder, inklusive HSBC-fonder.

Handla H4Z7 ETF

HSBC FTSE EPRA NAREIT Developed UCITS ETF USD (Acc) (H4Z7 ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och London Stock Exchange.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRO, Nordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

Största innehav

Innehav kan komma att förändras

ETFGI, ett ledande oberoende forsknings- och konsultföretag som täcker trender i det globala ETF-ekosystemet, rapporterar att ETFmarknaden i Europa firar sitt 24-årsjubileum med rekordtillgångar på nästan 2 biljoner US-dollar. De första europanoterade ETF:erna gjorde sin debut den 11 april 2000. Dessa två ETFer var baserade på Euro Stoxx 50– och Stoxx Europe 50-indexen, och de var noterade på Deutsche Boerse i Tyskland.

Tillgångar som investerats i ETF-branschen i Europa nådde rekordhöga 1,96 biljoner USD i slutet av mars. Under mars samlade ETF-branschen i Europa nettoinflöden på 11,02 miljarder USD, vilket ger årets nettoinflöden till 49,52 miljarder USD, enligt ETFGIs mars 2024 europeiska ETFer och ETPers industrilandskapsrapport, den månatliga rapporten som är en del av en årlig betald forskningsprenumerationstjänst. (Alla dollarvärden i USD om inget annat anges.)

Höjdpunkter

• Tillgångar som investerats på ETFmarknaden i Europa nådde ett rekord på 1,96 Tn i slutet av mars och slog det tidigare rekordet på 1,90 Tn i slutet av februari 2024.
• Tillgångarna ökade med 7,8 % YTD 2024, från 1,82 Tn USD i slutet av 2023 till 1,96 Tn USD.
• Nettoinflöden på 11,02 miljarder USD i mars 2024.
• YTD nettoinflöden på 49,52 miljarder USD är tredje högsta någonsin efter YTD nettoinflöden på 59,30 miljarder USD 2021 och YTD nettoinflöden på 49,73 miljarder USD 2022.
• Artonde månaden med på varandra följande nettoinflöden.

”S&P 500-indexet ökade med 3,22 % i mars och är upp 10,56 % YTD 2024. De utvecklade marknaderna exklusive det amerikanska indexet ökade med 3,62 % i mars och steg 5,26 % YTD 2024. Spanien (upp 10,72 %) och Italien (upp 6,34 %) såg de största ökningarna bland de utvecklade marknaderna i mars. Emerging markets-indexet ökade med 1,50 % under mars och steg 2,08 % YTD 2024. Peru (upp 10,27 %) och Columbia (upp 8,19 %) såg de största ökningarna bland tillväxtmarknaderna i mars”, enligt Deborah Fuhr, managing partner, grundare och ägare av ETFGI.

Tillgångstillväxt i ETF-branschen i slutet av mars

Källa: ETFGI

I slutet av mars hade ETFmarknaden i Europa 3 037 produkter, med 12 209 noteringar, tillgångar på $1,96 Tn, från 99 leverantörer listade på 29 börser i 24 länder.

Under mars samlade ETFer nettoinflöden till 11,02 miljarder USD. Aktie-ETFer samlade nettoinflöden på 9,81 miljarder USD under mars, vilket förde YTD nettoinflöden till 39,30 miljarder USD, högre än 19,38 miljarder USD i nettoinflöden av eget kapital YTD 2023. Ränte-ETFer rapporterade nettoinflöden på 719,00 USD YTD under 1 mars, vilket gav 25 USD nettoinflöden. miljarder, lägre än 15,49 miljarder USD i nettoinflöden YTD år 2023. Råvaru-ETFer rapporterade nettoutflöden på 75,35 miljoner USD under mars, vilket förde YTD nettoutflöden till 2,32 miljarder USD, lägre än 1,67 miljarder USD i nettoinflöden YTD 2023. på 670,27 miljoner USD under månaden, vilket samlade ett nettoinflöde för året i Europa på 2,33 miljarder USD, högre än 2,17 miljarder USD i nettoinflöden YTD 2023.

Betydande inflöden kan tillskrivas de 20 bästa ETFerna av nya nettotillgångar, som samlat in 9,63 miljarder USD under mars. iShares Core S&P 500 UCITS ETF – Acc (CSSPX SW) samlade in 918,91 miljoner USD, det största enskilda nettoinflödet.

Topp 20 ETFer efter nettoinflöden i mars 2024: Europa

Källa ETFGI

De 10 bästa ETPerna av nya nettotillgångar samlade ihop 1,69 miljarder USD under mars. WisdomTree Physical Silver – Acc (PHAG LN) samlade in 832,90 miljoner USD, det största enskilda nettoinflödet.

Topp 10 ETPer efter nettoinflöden i mars 2024: Europa

Källa: ETFGI

Investerare har tenderat att investera i Equity ETFs under mars.