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ETC Group Crypto Market Compass #25 2024

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ETC Group Crypto Market Compass #25 2024 Last week, cryptoassets underperformed traditional assets as risks to global growth are increasing

• Last week, cryptoassets underperformed traditional assets as risks to global growth are increasing

• Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Indicator” continues to fluctuate around neutral levels of sentiment

• Global growth expectations as priced by traditional financial markets have plunged to the lowest level since March 2023 which has negatively affected Cryptoasset Sentiment as well


Chart of the Week

Performance

Last week, cryptoassets underperformed traditional assets such as equities and bonds as risks to global growth are increasing.

In fact, global growth expectations as priced by traditional financial markets have plunged to the lowest level since March 2023 when Silicon Valley Bank collapsed. This has affected overall Cryptoasset Sentiment negatively as well (Chart-of-the-Week). This was accompanied by persistent net outflows from global crypto ETPs as well.

Nonetheless, major US equity indices continued to rallye to new all-time highs although the outperformance of both Bunds and gold vis-à-vis equities hints at some safe-haven demand.

One of the major reasons why global growth expectations are being revised downwards is the fact that US economic data have continued to underwhelm consensus expectations. The Bloomberg US ECO Surprise Index, which measures how important macro data releases have over- or underwhelmed expectations, has decreased to the lowest level since 2019. It appears as if the market is generally catching up to this worsening macro environment.

Although major equity benchmark indices like the S&P 500 have not shown any weakness, cyclical macro trades such as the AUD/JPY exchange rate, US cyclicals/defensives stock sectors, copper/gold are already signalling that the outlook for global growth is weakening.

A recent rise in French sovereign risks amid political developments in France is also contributing to higher macro uncertainty. French 5-year Credit Default Swaps (CDS) that insure against a default of the French government have increased to the highest level since May 2020 as the market is increasingly discounting the possibility of a so-called “FREXIT” – an exit of France from the EU and the Eurozone.

In this context, Bitcoin can be viewed as a hedge against sovereign default since it is a counterparty risk-free and censorship-resistant decentralized network. We have presented this kind of sovereign default hedge model in our latest Bitcoin Investment Case report as well.

Further repricing of global growth expectations to the downside amid increasing US recession risks could be a continuing headwind for Bitcoin and cryptoassets in the short term as there tends to be high correlation between our Cryptoasset Sentiment Index and changes in Global Growth Expectations (Chart-of-the-Week).

In this context, it is also important to highlight that changes in global growth expectations have been the most dominant macro factor over the past 6 months, explaining over 80% of the performance variation in Bitcoin over that period.

However, we continue to believe that the recent correction is not a cyclical top, but rather an intermediate correction in the bull market, which is why we suggest using any kind of macro weakness as an opportunity to add exposure ahead of very important developments in the coming months.

One of the main reasons is that we still expect the positive performance effects from the Bitcoin Halving to take effect from summer onwards as explained in one of our Crypto Market Espresso reports.

Moreover, recent comments by SEC chairman Gary Gensler imply that spot Ethereum ETFs in the US are likely going to be launched earlier than September. This is bound to support Ethereum’s performance as well as explained here.

In addition, the recent monetary policy actions by the ECB and Bank of Canada signal that the liquidity tide is already turning which is bound to be a very significant tailwind for Bitcoin and cryptoassets over the medium to long term as explained here. A likely US recession renders a U-turn in Fed monetary policy very likely as well.

Last but not least, the latest political developments in the US show that the political consensus is moving towards a mainstream acceptance of cryptoassets. For instance, Joe Biden’s presidential campaign has recently started to accept crypto payments for campaign financing as well.

Moreover, Joe Biden’s administration will attend a Bitcoin roundtable with congressional officials in DC in order to discuss how to keep Bitcoin and blockchain innovation inside the U.S.

These developments follow recent pledges by Trump to support Bitcoin mining in the US.

In general, among the top 10 crypto assets, Toncoin, XRP, and Ethereum were the relative outperformers.

Overall, altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin has rebounded significantly compared to the prior week, with around 60% of our tracked altcoins managing to outperform Bitcoin on a weekly basis. This is consistent with the fact that Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin by approximately 200 bps last week, which is generally a sentiment gauge for the overall altcoin market.

Sentiment

Despite the recent price correction, our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” continues to fluctuate around neutral levels of sentiment.

At the moment, 5 out of 15 indicators are above their short-term trend.

Last week, there were significant reversals to the upside in the altseason index and in the BTC long futures liquidation dominance.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index signals ”Greed” as of this morning.

Performance dispersion among cryptoassets still remains very low. Most altcoins are still trading in line with Bitcoin.

Altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin has increased significantly compared to the week prior, with around 60% of our tracked altcoins outperforming Bitcoin on a weekly basis, which is consistent with the fact that Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin last week.

In general, increasing (decreasing) altcoin outperformance tends to be a sign of increasing (decreasing) risk appetite within cryptoasset markets and the latest altcoin outperformance could signal increasing appetite for risk at the moment.

Meanwhile, sentiment in traditional financial markets has plunged to the lowest level since November 2023, judging by our own measure of Cross Asset Risk Appetite (CARA).

Fund Flows

Last week, we saw a significant turnaround in net fund flows into global crypto ETPs with around -647.1 mn USD in net outflows.

Global Bitcoin ETPs saw net outflows of -637.1 mn USD last week, of which -580.6 mn USD (net) were related to US spot Bitcoin ETFs alone. Over the past 5 trading days, 4 days have shown negative net outflows.

Flows into Hong Kong spot Bitcoin ETFs were almost flat, with minor net inflows of around +0.3 mn USD, according to data provided by Bloomberg.

The ETC Group Physical Bitcoin ETP (BTCE) saw minor net outflows equivalent to -5.1 mn USD while the ETC Group Core Bitcoin ETP (BTC1) saw net inflows of +0.2 mn USD last week.

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) saw accelerating net outflows with approximately -274.4 mn USD last week. Although iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) continued to see net inflows (+41.6 mn USD) last week, other major US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced significant outflows, e.g. FBTC with around -146.3 mn USD in net outflows.

Global Ethereum ETPs also saw a reversal in flows last week, with net outflows totalling -10.9 mn USD.

However, the ETC Group Physical Ethereum ETP (ZETH) continued to see net inflows of +0.2 mn USD last week. The ETC Group Ethereum Staking ETP (ET32) saw neither in- nor outflows last week (+/- 0 mn USD).

Altcoin ETPs ex Ethereum were the only investment vehicles that experienced net inflows of around +4.8 mn USD last week.

Lastly, Thematic & basket crypto ETPs continue to see minor net outflows of -3.9 mn USD, based on our calculations. The ETC Group MSCI Digital Assets Select 20 ETP (DA20) defied negative market trends and managed to attract +0.4 mn USD in net inflows last week.

Meanwhile, global crypto hedge funds continued to trim down their market exposure to Bitcoin aggressively. The beta of global crypto hedge funds’ performance has declined to only 0.59 over the past 20 trading days.

On-Chain Data

Before last week, we observed that net buying volumes on Bitcoin spot exchanges was negative despite ongoing net inflows into global Bitcoin ETPs. The negative volumes have even accelerated last week with -810 mn USD more selling than buying volume on BTC spot exchanges.

While exchanges continue to see net outflows overall, whales have consistently transferred BTC to exchanges on a net basis which has certainly increased selling pressure from large investors.

Whales are defined as network entities that control at least 1,000 BTC. The absolute number of whales has also declined last week which also supports the observation that whales have been distributing coins. Nonetheless, overall exchange balances for both BTC and ETH continue to hover near multi-year lows.

Meanwhile, there is some evidence that BTC miners have also started distributing some coins. However, these distributions appear not to be happening via exchanges but over-the-counter (OTC). OTC daily miner selling volumes have recently spiked to the highest level since March according to data provided by CryptoQuant. There has also been in a minor uptick in BTC miner transfers to exchanges last week and BTC aggregate miner balances have reached the lowest level since April 2019 according to data provided by Glassnode.

The risk is that miner transfers could accelerate if the market continued to trade lower and decrease below many miners marginal cost of production.

In general, Bitcoin network hash rate is still around -8% lower than at the Halving on the 20th of April. So, Bitcoin miners still have not managed to increase their hash rate signalling ongoing economic headwinds. It is interesting to note that based on data provided by the Cambridge Center for Alternative Finance the average efficiency of the global Bitcoin mining fleet has significantly increased since the Halving as the energy consumption per hash has declined from around 80 Joules per terahash (J/Th) to around 26.4 J/Th.

This implies that miners have already shut off and replaced a significant proportion of inefficient mining hardware following the latest Halving which means that the risk of a significant miner capitulation are rather low.

Futures, Options & Perpetuals

Last week, both BTC futures and perpetuals open interest declined somewhat as traders pared down their derivatives exposure. Open interest on CME also declined significantly by around -10k BTC. Meanwhile, both short and long liquidations stayed relatively but the market swung from a dominance in long liquidations to a dominance in short liquidations in a very short period.

This reduction in open interest seems to be consistent with a decline in the Bitcoin futures basis by almost 200 bps compared to the week prior. Meanwhile, the weighted average of perpetual funding rates continued to be positive throughout the week which signals that the recent price correction has not yet induced any kind of short-term capitulation among BTC futures traders.

Bitcoin options’ open interest increased slightly over the course of last week. The slight increase in relative put-call open interest ratios implies that this increase was mostly driven by an increase in put open interest on a net basis. A put option gives the holder the right to sell the underlying at a specific price in the future. Relative put-call volume ratios also increased throughout the week which supports this observation. So, BTC option traders have overall increased their downside bets/hedges last week on a net basis.

The increase in the 25-delta BTC 1-month option skew also corroborates the view that there was increased demand for puts relative to calls.

However, BTC option implied volatilities decreased significantly last week. Implied volatilities of 1-month ATM Bitcoin options are currently at around 45.9% p.a.


Bottom Line

• Last week, cryptoassets underperformed traditional assets as risks to global growth are increasing

• Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Indicator” continues to fluctuate around neutral levels of sentiment

• Global growth expectations as priced by traditional financial markets have plunged to the lowest level since March 2023 which has negatively affected Cryptoasset Sentiment as well


To read our Crypto Market Compass in full, please click the button below:

This is not investment advice. Capital at risk. Read the full disclaimer

© ETC Group 2019-2024 | All rights reserved

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De bästa börshandlade fonderna för FTSE 100

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FTSE 100 är Storbritanniens största aktiemarknadsindex. Den spårar de 100 största brittiska företagen. FTSE 100-indexet väger sina beståndsdelar med fritt flytande marknadsvärde.

FTSE 100 är Storbritanniens största aktiemarknadsindex. Den spårar de 100 största brittiska företagen. FTSE 100-indexet väger sina beståndsdelar med fritt flytande marknadsvärde. ETF-investerare kan dra nytta av kursvinster och utdelningar av FTSE 100-beståndsdelarna. För närvarande spåras FTSE 100-indexet av elva olika börshandlade fonder för FTSE 100 som har årliga förvaltningsavgifter på mellan 0,07 och 0,20 procent per år.

Den billigaste börshandlade fonderna för FTSE 100

NamnValutaISINKortnamnAvgift
HSBC FTSE 100 UCITS ETF GBPGBPIE00B42TW061H4ZB0,07%
iShares Core FTSE 100 UCITS ETF (Dist)GBPIE0005042456IUSZ0,07%
iShares Core FTSE 100 UCITS ETF GBP (Acc)GBPIE00B53HP851SXRW0,07%
Invesco FTSE 100 UCITS ETFGBPIE00B60SWT88S1000,09%
Vanguard FTSE 100 UCITS ETF (GBP) AccumulatingGBPIE00BFMXYP42VUKG0,09%
Vanguard FTSE 100 UCITS ETF DistributingGBPIE00B810Q511VUKE0,09%
Xtrackers FTSE 100 UCITS ETF 1CGBPLU0838780707XDUK0,09%
Xtrackers FTSE 100 UCITS ETF Income 1DGBPLU0292097234DBXX0,09%
Amundi FTSE 100 UCITS ETF AccGBPLU1650492173L1000,14%
Amundi FTSE 100 UCITS ETF DistGBPLU1650492256100D0,14%
UBS ETF (LU) FTSE 100 UCITS ETF (GBP) A-disGBPLU0136242590UIM30,20%

Olika index kan ge olika utveckling

Att olika index kan ge olika resultat är klart. Ett av de mest klassiska exemplen på detta är S&P 500 och Nasdaq-100 i USA. Båda två är så kallade benchmarks som ofta nämns i nyheterna, men de spårar olika saker.

När det gäller brittiska large caps så finns det ett enda index, FTSE 100. Den som överväger att investera i någon av dessa fonder har det således lätt.

Finns det sedan flera olika börshandlade fonder som täcker samma index eller segment är det förvaltningskostnaden som avgör. När det gäller FTSE 100 ETFer är skillnad relativt liten, mer korrekt 0,13 procent är skillnaden mellan den billigaste av dessa börshandlade fonder, HSBCs och iShares Core ETFer och den dyraste, UBS ETF (LU) FTSE 100 UCITS ETF (GBP) A-dis som UBS erbjuder.

Antar vi att dessa fonder ger samma avkastning kommer den som har lägst avgift att utvecklas bäst, allt annat lika. Grundregeln är alltså, betala aldrig för mycket då detta kommer att äta upp din avkastning.

Investera i FTSE 100 med hjälp av börshandlade fonder

Nedan har vi listat börshandlade fonder som spårar FTSE 100. Utöver dessa ETFer finns många andra typer av börshandlade fonder som valt att investera i Storbritannien.

För ytterligare information om respektive börshandlad fond klicka på kortnamnet för att se alla de artiklar som återfinns på denna sida som behandlar dessa ETFer.

En jämförelse mellan olika FTSE 100 ETFer

Förutom avkastning finns det ytterligare viktiga faktorer att tänka på när du väljer en FTSE 100 ETF. För att ge ett bra beslutsunderlag hittar du en lista över alla FTSE 100 ETFer med information om kostnad, vinstanvändning, fondens hemvist och replikeringsmetod.

Emittent
ISIN
Avgift %UtdelningspolicyHemvistReplikeringsmetod
iShares Core FTSE 100 UCITS ETF (Dist)
IE0005042456
0,07%UtdelandeIrlandFysisk replikering
Vanguard FTSE 100 UCITS ETF Distributing
IE00B810Q511
0,09%UtdelandeIrlandFysisk replikering
iShares Core FTSE 100 UCITS ETF GBP (Acc)
IE00B53HP851
0,07%AckumulerandeIrlandFysisk replikering
Vanguard FTSE 100 UCITS ETF (GBP) Accumulating
IE00BFMXYP42
0,09%AckumulerandeIrlandFysisk replikering
HSBC FTSE 100 UCITS ETF GBP
IE00B42TW061
0,07%UtdelandeIrlandFysisk replikering
Amundi FTSE 100 UCITS ETF Acc
LU1650492173
0,14%AckumulerandeLuxemburgOfinansierad swap
Amundi FTSE 100 UCITS ETF Dist
LU1650492256
0,14%UtdelandeLuxemburgOfinansierad swap
UBS ETF (LU) FTSE 100 UCITS ETF (GBP) A-dis
LU0136242590
0,20%UtdelandeLuxemburgFysisk replikering
Xtrackers FTSE 100 UCITS ETF Income 1D
LU0292097234
0,09%UtdelandeLuxemburgFysisk replikering
Xtrackers FTSE 100 UCITS ETF 1C
LU0838780707
0,09%AckumulerandeLuxemburgFysisk replikering
Invesco FTSE 100 UCITS ETF
IE00B60SWT88
0,09%AckumulerandeIrlandOfinansierad swap

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VIRNEAR ETP spårar kryptovalutan NEAR

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Virtune Staked NEAR ETP (VIRNEAR ETP) med ISIN SE0025837735, är en fysiskt ppubackad börshandlad produkt (ETP) som sömlöst kombinerar exponering mot NEAR med fördelarna av staking. Genom att inkludera staking möjliggör denna ETP för investerare att generera ytterligare avkastning på sin NEAR-investering. Detta möjliggörs genom en transparent och fysiskt backad struktur med institutionell säkerhetsnivå.

Virtune Staked NEAR ETP (VIRNEAR ETP) med ISIN SE0025837735, är en fysiskt ppubackad börshandlad produkt (ETP) som sömlöst kombinerar exponering mot NEAR med fördelarna av staking. Genom att inkludera staking möjliggör denna ETP för investerare att generera ytterligare avkastning på sin NEAR-investering. Detta möjliggörs genom en transparent och fysiskt backad struktur med institutionell säkerhetsnivå.

Varför välja ETP:er framför direkta kryptoinvesteringar?

Virtunes Börshandlade Produkter (ETPer) erbjuder ett säkert och reglerat sätt att få 1:1 exponering mot kryptotillgångar som NEAR, utan komplexiteten av direkt ägande. Med förenklad skatterapportering, förvaring med institutionell säkerhetsnivå, och handel genom din lokala nätmäklare eller bank, är ETP:er ett attraktivt alternativ för investerare som söker ett enkelt och säkert sätt att investera i kryptotillgångar.

Det enklaste sättet

Virtunes ETPer handlas direkt på reglerade börser lika enkelt som att handla en aktie via din nätmäklare eller bank, utan behov av digitala plånböcker, privata nycklar eller krypto-börser.

Skattefördelar

Investering i krypto genom ETPer förenklar ofta skatterapporteringen, eftersom de behandlas som traditionella värdepapper, vilket minskar komplexiteten att spåra enskilda krypto-transaktioner.

Alla dina investeringar samlade på en plats

Integrera dina krypto-investeringar enkelt i din traditionella portfölj. Detta förenklar analys, diversifiering och den övergripande hanteringen av dina investeringar, vilket ger dig mer kontroll och klarhet över din finansiella tillväxt.

Institutionell säkerhetsnivå

Virtunes ETPer är 100% fysiskt backade. Som en reglerad kapitalförvaltare inom krypto erbjuder Virtune en högre nivå av säkerhet och skydd jämfört med att hålla krypto direkt i personliga plånböcker.

Ytterligare investerarskydd

Virtune använder en Säkerhetsagent vars syfte är att skydda och representera investerarna i våra produkter. Kryptotillgångarna förvaras separat i cold storage (offline) hos Virtunes förvaringsinstitut Coinbase.

4%extra årlig avkastning genom staking

Med Virtune Staked NEAR, får du en extra årlig avkastning utöver NEARs egen utveckling. Den extra avkastningen genom staking tillförs och reflekteras i ETPens pris på daglig basis.

Virtune använder non-custodial staking, vilket innebär att Virtune stakar direkt från cold storage. Detta säkerställer att Virtune under inga omständigheter överför kryptotillgångar till en tredje part utanför Virtunes kontroll.

Exempel

Initial investering: 100 NEAR

Årlig stakingbelöning: 4%

Årlig avgift: 1,49%

Investering efter ett år: 102,51 NEAR

Ovanstående siffror är endast för illustrativa ändamål.

Tekniken som möjliggör framtidens AI

NEAR Protocol (NEAR) är en blockkedjeplattform med fokus på att möjliggöra AI-drivna lösningar. NEAR kombinerar användarvänliga utvecklingsverktyg med kraftfull infrastruktur för att stödja nästa generation av intelligenta applikationer.

Produktinformation

Avgift1,49%
BloombergVIRNEAR SS
ISINSE0025837735
EmittentVirtune AB (Publ)
WKNA4APTM
Startdatum2025-08-18

Handla VIRNEAR ETP

Virtune Staked NEAR ETP (VIRNEAR ETP) är en europeisk börshandlad produkt som handlas på bland annat Nasdaq Stockholm.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETP genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel  Nordnet, SAVR, Levler, DEGIRO och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
Nasdaq StockholmSEKVIRNEAR

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Fem nya ETFer från iShares på Xetra

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iShares $ Corp Bond ESG SRI UCITS ETF EUR Hedged (Acc) investerar i räntebärande företagsobligationer med investment grade-värde, denominerade i amerikanska dollar med en minsta återstående löptid på ett år. Obligationerna väljs ut enligt ESG-kriterier. Andelsklassen är valutasäkrad mot euron.

iShares $ Corp Bond ESG SRI UCITS ETF EUR Hedged (Acc) investerar i räntebärande företagsobligationer med investment grade-värde, denominerade i amerikanska dollar med en minsta återstående löptid på ett år. Obligationerna väljs ut enligt ESG-kriterier. Andelsklassen är valutasäkrad mot euron.

iShares Core UK Gilts UCITS ETF EUR Hedged (Acc) följer utvecklingen av investment grade-obligationer denominerade i brittiska pund. Andelsklassen är valutasäkrad mot euron.

iShares MSCI Europe Quality Dividend Advanced UCITS ETF EUR (Acc) ger exponering mot företag med högre direktavkastning och kvalitetsegenskaper från utvecklade europeiska marknader. Samtidigt strävar fonden efter att förbättra sin koldioxidreduktion och ESG-betyg jämfört med MSCI Europe Index.

iShares MSCI USA SRI UCITS ETF EUR Hedged (Acc) investerar i aktier i amerikanska företag med hjälp av en ESG-strategi i toppklass. Företag som är verksamma inom kontroversiella affärsområden eller bryter mot principerna i FN:s Global Compact är undantagna. Andelsklassen är valutasäkrad mot euron.

iShares € Govt Bond 0-1yr UCITS ETF EUR (Acc) investerar i eurodenominerade statsobligationer från eurozonens medlemsstater. Dessa har en återstående löptid på minst 0 till högst 12 månader. Obligationerna har en fast ränta och måste ha investment grade-status vid tidpunkten för inkludering i indexet.

NamnISIN
Kortnamn
AvgiftUtdelnings-
policy
iShares $ Corp Bond ESG SRI UCITS ETF EUR Hedged (Acc)IE000FZ1S3M3
CEMJ (EUR)
0,17%Ackumulerande
iShares Core UK Gilts UCITS ETF EUR Hedged (Acc)IE000PYIUPH0
CEMM (EUR)
0,09%Ackumulerande
iShares MSCI Europe Quality Dividend Advanced UCITS ETF EUR (Acc)IE000PYEKKW0
CEML (EUR)
0,28%Ackumulerande
iShares MSCI USA SRI UCITS ETF EUR Hedged (Acc)IE000ATRYEA4
CEMI (EUR)
0,23%Ackumulerande
iShares € Govt Bond 0-1yr UCITS ETF EUR (Acc)IE000WV38GP5
CEMK (EUR)
0,09%Ackumulerande

Produktutbudet inom Deutsche Börses ETF- och ETP-segment omfattar för närvarande totalt 2 525 ETFer, 203 ETCer och 278 ETNer. Med detta urval och en genomsnittlig månatlig handelsvolym på cirka 25 miljarder euro är Xetra den ledande handelsplatsen för ETFer och ETPer i Europa.

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