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ETC Group Crypto Market Compass #21 2024

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Crypto Market Compass #21 2024 Cryptoassets rallye on increasing Ethereum ETF approval odds and futures short liquidations

• Cryptoassets rallye on increasing Ethereum ETF approval odds and futures short liquidations

• Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Indicator” has increased but still signals neutral levels in sentiment

• Ethereum futures short liquidations spike to the highest level since March reversing much of ETH’s underperformance vis-à-vis BTC this year


Chart of the Week

Performance

Over the past week, cryptoassets outperformed traditional assets like equities and commodities by a very wide margin buoyed by institutional buying interest and higher odds of an early Ethereum spot ETF approval in the US.

While last week accelerating net fund flows into cryptoasset ETPs and large net spot exchange outflows provided a major tailwind, this week the major focus has been on an earlier-than-expected spot Ethereum ETF approval in the US.

More specifically, it seems as if the issuers are doing last-minute revisions to their 19b-4 filings to meet the upcoming final deadline for the SEC to decide on VanEck’s application for a spot Ethereum ETF which officially ends on the 24th of May (Friday this week).

Based on the latest comments by Bloomberg ETF analysts, an approval appears to be likely by Wednesday this week already.

Except for Galaxy Digital, the applicants are comprised of the same companies that filed for a spot Bitcoin ETF as well including iShares and Fidelity.

The short-term increase in approval odds mostly came as a surprise as Bloomberg ETF analysts increased their odds from 25% originally to 75% due to the fact that the SEC asked exchanges to update the 19b-4 filings on an accelerated basis.

Polymarket – a popular betting website – is currently implying a 54% chance of an approval by the end of May, up from 10% only a couple of days ago.

The unexpected increase in approval odds also took Ethereum futures short sellers by surprise as short liquidations on Ethereum futures contracts spiked to the highest level since March (Chart-of-the-Week). This propelled Ethereum’s price higher by more than 10% within hours and reversed much of Ethereum’s underperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin this year. Short liquidations were also a major factor behind Bitcoin’s rise past 70k USD again.

In general, among the top 10 crypto assets, Solana, Ethereum, and Avalanche were the relative outperformers.

However, overall altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin still remained relatively low, with only around 25% of our tracked altcoins managing to outperform Bitcoin on a weekly basis.

Sentiment

Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” has increased following the latest developments but overall remains at neutral levels in sentiment.

At the moment, 10 out of 15 indicators are above their short-term trend.

Last week, there were significant reversals to the upside in the 25-delta BTC option skew and the BTC futures long liquidations dominance.

That being said, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index already signals ”Extreme Greed” as of this morning.

Performance dispersion among cryptoassets has continued to remain low, i.e. most altcoins are still highly correlated with Bitcoin.

Altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin was also still subdued, with only around 25% of our tracked altcoins that have outperformed Bitcoin on a weekly basis despite the recent comeback of Ethereum vis-à-vis Bitcoin.

In general, increasing (decreasing) altcoin outperformance tends to be a sign of increasing (decreasing) risk appetite within cryptoasset markets.

Meanwhile, sentiment in traditional financial markets remains relatively elevated, judging by our own measure of Cross Asset Risk Appetite (CARA).

Fund Flows

Last week, we saw continued positive net inflows into global crypto ETPs with around +793.2 mn USD in net inflows across all types of cryptoassets (week ending Friday). Yesterday, we also saw very strong inflows into global crypto ETPs of around +280.2 mn USD in a single day.

Global Bitcoin ETPs saw net inflows of +826.4 mn USD last week of which +882.3 mn (net) were related to US spot Bitcoin ETFs alone. Yesterday also saw very significant inflows of around +241.1 mn USD into US spot Bitcoin ETFs. So, last week’s acceleration in fund flows seems to continue this week so far.

Hong Kong spot Bitcoin ETFs continued to experience net outflows of around -81.4 mn USD last week, according to data provided by Bloomberg.

The ETC Group Physical Bitcoin ETP (BTCE) also saw net inflows equivalent to +0.5 mn USD while the ETC Group Core Bitcoin ETP (BTC1) saw net inflows of +1.1 mn USD last week.

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) continued saw minor net inflows of approximately +12.4 mn USD last week while other major US spot Bitcoin ETFs continued to attract new capital, e.g. iShares’ IBIT with net inflows of around +131.8 mn USD.

In contrast to Bitcoin ETPs, Global Ethereum ETPs continued to see declining ETP flows last week, with net outflows of around -41.7 mn USD. Yesterday we still saw continued outflows from global Ethereum ETPs of around -13.2 mn USD. This might reverse over the coming days due to the latest performance reversal in Ethereum.

Meanwhile, Hong Kong spot Ethereum ETFs that saw minor net outflows last week of around -1.5 mn USD, according to data provided by Bloomberg.

Furthermore, the ETC Group Physical Ethereum ETP (ZETH) saw minor net outflows of -0.6 mn USD last week. The ETC Group Ethereum Staking ETP (ET32) shares outstanding remained flat over the past week.

Besides, Altcoin ETPs ex Ethereum continued to see minor net inflows of around +14.5 mn USD last week.

Besides, Thematic & basket crypto ETPs still saw some minor net outflows of -5.9 mn USD, based on our calculations. The ETC Group MSCI Digital Assets Select 20 ETP (DA20) managed to attract some net inflows last week (+0.3 mn USD).

Besides, the beta of global crypto hedge funds to Bitcoin over the last 20 trading days continued to increase to around 1.09. This implies that global crypto hedge funds have significantly increased their market exposure and have currently a slightly more than neutral exposure to Bitcoin.

On-Chain Data

This week’s focus will be on Ethereum’s on-chain developments.

The general status quo of Ethereum is currently as follows: There is generally an increasing disparity between (bullish) Ethereum Layer 2 developments and (rather bearish) Layer 1 developments.

Ethereum’s stablecoin dominance has recently declined in favour of Tron. At the time of writing, Tron accounts for 55% of stablecoin transfer volumes 89% of stablecoin transfer count. Solana has recently also leapfrogged Ethereum in terms of Layer 1 network revenues for the first time ever.

In general, Ethereum’s Layer 1 network activity indicators such as active addresses or transfer count remain relatively flat relative to the start of the year.

Meanwhile, Ethereum Layer 2s are continuing to see significant increase in network activity and usage. For instance, Ethereum’s Layer 2 active users continue to increase to new all-time highs. This is mostly related to the increasing usage of Base due to Coinbase’s recent integration of the L2 within its platform.

Moreover, ETH exchange balances continue to hover near multi-year lows, and we only saw a minor uptick in aggregate ETH exchange balances, which implies net transfers to exchanges, over the past week.

Net buying minus selling volumes on exchanges over the past 7 days has recently flipped positive but still remains relatively subdued compared to the net buying volumes we saw until mid-March 2024. A positive catalyst to change this picture more significantly would certainly be an approval of the ETH spot ETFs in the US.

Futures, Options & Perpetuals

Last week, both BTC futures open interest saw a significant increase in BTC-terms which seems to be related to a net increase in long open interest. The same is true for Ethereum’s futures open interest which recently increased to the highest level since January 2023 in ETH-terms.

Meanwhile, both BTC and ETH short futures liquidations spiked significantly following the latest ETH ETF approval rumours.

The Bitcoin futures basis continues to increase from its recent lows. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin futures annualized basis rate stands at around 12.7% p.a. Perpetual funding rates also increased significantly to the highest level since early April 2024.

Bitcoin options’ open interest also increased significantly last week as BTC option traders seem to have increased their downside protection via puts as we approach earlier all-time highs again. Relative put-call volume ratios also increased significantly especially on last Sunday.

In contrast, the 25-delta BTC 1-month option skew continued to drift lower, implying an increased demand for calls relative to puts. The same is true for the ETH 1-month option 25-delta skew.

BTC option implied volatilities have increased only slightly over the past days. Implied volatilities of 1-month ATM Bitcoin options are currently at around 54.3% p.a.

In contrast, Ethereum’s 1-month implied volatilities have recently spiked significantly to year-to-date highs and are currently at around 79.2% p.a.


Bottom Line

• Cryptoassets rallye on increasing Ethereum ETF approval odds and futures short liquidations

• Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Indicator” has increased but still signals neutral levels in sentiment

• Ethereum futures short liquidations spike to the highest level since March reversing much of ETH’s underperformance vis-à-vis BTC this year

To read our Crypto Market Compass in full, please click the button below:

This is not investment advice. Capital at risk. Read the full disclaimer

© ETC Group 2019-2024 | All rights reserved

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Europafokuserade ETPer ser större andel av flödena under första kvartalet

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HANetf har släppt sin rapport om börshandlade europeiska ETPer för första kvartalet 2025, som avslöjar banbrytande insikter i den snabba utvecklingen av den europeiska ETF-marknaden.

HANetf har släppt sin rapport om börshandlade europeiska ETPer för första kvartalet 2025, som avslöjar banbrytande insikter i den snabba utvecklingen av den europeiska ETF-marknaden.

Tillgångar i europeiska ETPer nådde 2,4 biljoner dollar under första kvartalet, varav ETFer stod för 2,28 biljoner dollar. Kärnaktions-ETFer ledde flödena (45,70 miljarder dollar) medan räntebärande ETFer ökade med 15,19 miljarder dollar.

Viktiga data

  • Europeiska ETPer överstiger 2,4 biljoner dollar i förvaltat kapital under första kvartalet 2025
  • Flöden omdirigerades till Europafokuserade ETPer jämfört med USA-fokuserade mitt i tullkrisen
  • Kärnaktions-ETFer överstiger milstolpen på 1 biljon dollar i förvaltat kapital med 45,70 miljarder dollar i nettoflöden under första kvartalet
  • Aktiva ETFer i förvaltat kapital ökade med 11,65 % under första kvartalet och optionsbaserade ETFer i förvaltat kapital med 54,55 %.
  • Antalet europeiska ETP-varumärken fortsätter att öka och uppgår nu till totalt 131.
  • Europa godkänner semitransparenta ETFer, vilket potentiellt uppmuntrar fler aktiva förvaltare i USA att gå in på den europeiska ETF-marknaden.
  • Försvars-ETFer såg flöden på 4,16 miljarder dollar under första kvartalet, vilket motsvarar 4,5 % av de totala ETF-flödena i Europa och en 5-faldig ökning jämfört med föregående kvartal.

Läs hela rapporten för att upptäcka kvartalsdata, ETF-marknadens utveckling, tillväxten inom nya områden som optionsbaserade ETFer och mer.

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JAAA ETF an aktiv satsning på säkerställda obligationer

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Janus Henderson Tabula USD AAA CLO UCITS ETF USD Acc (JAAA ETF) med ISIN LU2994520851 är en aktivt förvaltad börshandlad fond. Denna ETF ger tillgång till USD CLO:er (collateralised loan obligations) med AAA-rating.

Janus Henderson Tabula USD AAA CLO UCITS ETF USD Acc (JAAA ETF) med ISIN LU2994520851 är en aktivt förvaltad börshandlad fond. Denna ETF ger tillgång till USD CLO:er (collateralised loan obligations) med AAA-rating.

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total expense ratio) uppgår till 0,35 % per år. Ränteintäkterna (kupongerna) i ETFen ackumuleras och återinvesteras.

Den börshandlade fonden lanserades den 26 mars 2025 och har sitt säte i Luxemburg.

En högkvalitativ aktiv USD CLO ETF

En börshandlad fond med collateralised loan obligations som erbjuder ett övertygande alternativ till företag med investment grade-betyg. AAA CLOer syftar till att erbjuda högre avkastning och större kreditspread* för en tillgång av bättre kvalitet med liten känslighet för räntevolatilitet.

*Skillnaden i avkastning mellan värdepapper med liknande löptid men olika kreditkvalitet, ofta använd för att beskriva skillnaden i avkastning mellan företagsobligationer och statsobligationer. Vidgade spreadar indikerar generellt en försämrad kreditvärdighet hos företagslåntagare, medan en minskning indikerar en förbättring.

Investeringsprocess

Fonden kommer att investera minst 80 % av sitt substansvärde i godtagbara CLO:er (Contract Loans) med valfri löptid som har kreditbetyget AAA (eller motsvarande av ett nationellt erkänt kreditvärderingsinstitut) vid köptillfället, med fokus på USD CLO:er. Om värdepapper i portföljen nedgraderas till under ett kreditbetyg på AAA (eller motsvarande), kommer investeringsförvaltaren att sträva efter att sälja de relevanta värdepapperen så snart som rimligen är möjligt, förutsatt att förvaltaren bedömer att det är i investerarnas bästa intresse.

Portföljförvaltningsstrategier och synpunkter utvecklas med input från diskussioner inom Janus Hendersons CLO-portföljförvaltningsteam och den bredare räntebärande gruppen. Analytiker tilldelas att undersöka specifika möjligheter (inträde, utträde eller annat) och fokusera på de vägledande principerna för att bygga en djup förståelse för säkerheter (typ, jurisdiktion, historisk utveckling), motparter (förvaltare, serviceföretag, hedgeleverantörer), kontroll (juridisk, innehavarens rättigheter, kontroll i fallissemang), kassaflöde (förväntat, stressat, allokering). Som en del av denna process beaktas specifikt EU:s värdepapperiseringsregler. Denna interna forskning kompletteras med data från kreditvärderingsinstitut, investeringsbanker, oberoende analys- och värdepapperiseringsdataleverantörer. Alla rekommendationer är föremål för en minsta granskning med fyra ögon innan de verkställs.

Investeringsmål

Fonden strävar efter att ge avkastning från en kombination av inkomst och kapitaltillväxt på lång sikt genom att investera i en aktivt förvaltad portfölj av AAA-rankade collateralised loan obligations (CLOs). Fonden förvaltas aktivt med hänvisning till J.P. Morgan Collateralized Loan Obligation Index AAA (CLOIE AAA). Delfondens portfölj kan avvika avsevärt från jämförelseindexet.

Handla JAAA ETF

Janus Henderson Tabula USD AAA CLO UCITS ETF USD Acc (JAAA ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad kryptovaluta som handlas på London Stock Exchange.

London Stock Exchange är en marknads som få svenska banker och nätmäklare erbjuder access till, men DEGIRO gör det.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
London Stock ExchangeUSDJAAA

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Can crypto outperform amidst the current market turmoil?

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Financial markets have been roiled by President Trump’s tariff policies, leading to sharp volatility across asset classes. US equities have taken the brunt of it, with the S&P 500 down as much as 20% from its January highs. Bond markets are also unstable, reflecting shifting expectations around 2025 interest rates.

Financial markets have been roiled by President Trump’s tariff policies, leading to sharp volatility across asset classes. US equities have taken the brunt of it, with the S&P 500 down as much as 20% from its January highs. Bond markets are also unstable, reflecting shifting expectations around 2025 interest rates.

This wave of macroeconomic uncertainty has made it harder to detect underlying investment trends—especially in crypto. Despite its independence from direct government influence, digital assets haven’t been immune to the turbulence. But while volatility has hit traditional markets hard, crypto has once again shown resilience, underpinned by improving fundamentals and a strengthening regulatory backdrop.

What we’ve learned since November

In the wake of President Trump’s election in November, digital assets were hitting all-time highs. But instead of urging investors to chase returns, we warned against getting swept away by the “FOMO” mindset that often happens with investors in this asset class. Our message was simple: stick to your target allocation and avoid overexposure after sharp price increases. This approach is designed to help investors benefit from crypto’s long-term asymmetric potential without succumbing to emotional swings.

Even before the election the Nasdaq Crypto Index™ (NCI™) had already risen nearly 50% for the year (as of October 31, 2024). Trump’s win added fuel to the fire, boosting optimism that US crypto regulation could finally turn a corner. By year-end, the NCI™ had more than doubled, closing with a 105% gain.

That bullish momentum continued into early 2025, driven by post-halving optimism, improving adoption metrics, and the tailwinds of Trump’s return. However, the tariff shock has since erased much of crypto’s post-election gains, reigniting questions about the asset class’s staying power in a chaotic macro environment. While further corrections are possible, we believe this phase represents another one of those important long-term entry points—just as we’ve seen before.

Why fundamentals still matter

It’s important to keep in mind that crypto’s value and price trajectory isn’t driven solely by macro noise. Several key forces are still working in its favor:

• Bitcoin’s 2024 halving has constrained supply, historically a key catalyst for price appreciation.

• Easing US monetary policy has provided a tailwind to risk assets across the board.

• Institutional adoption continues to grow, with more asset managers, banks, and platforms embracing digital assets in portfolios.

But perhaps the most underappreciated catalyst right now is regulatory clarity in the US. The stance toward the industry has shifted significantly. After years of mixed messages and an enforcement-first approach to regulation, US policymakers are now working toward a more coherent and constructive framework for digital assets. For example:

• There’s real momentum in Congress to pass bipartisan legislation around custody, stablecoins, and crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs)—all of which could serve as gateways for broader institutional participation.

• Regulators are seeking input from the industry, recognizing the need for practical and innovation-friendly rules.

• This policy shift isn’t just eliminating noise—it’s a structural tailwind that could accelerate adoption, investment flows, and long-term utility for digital assets.

Even amid the recent pullback, the NCI™ remains up 7.0% since Trump’s election—outperforming most risk assets and second only to gold, which is up 8.7%. In contrast, the broader “Trump rally has fizzled in traditional markets: the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 are both down more than 10% over the same period, weighed down by tariff fears and growth uncertainty.

That divergence highlights a key point: while crypto remains exposed to global macro risks, its relative strength continues to stand out. And as the regulatory and adoption picture improves, the case for long-term crypto allocations is only growing stronger.

Looking ahead: stay disciplined, think long term

With tariffs reshaping global trade and pushing the world toward a more fragmented economic order, crypto’s borderless, decentralized, and politically neutral nature becomes increasingly relevant. It offers a hedge not only against inflation and currency debasement but also against geopolitical dislocation and systemic risk.

The excitement of late 2024 wasn’t a one-off, and neither is the current wave of fear. Crypto’s long-term role in portfolios remains intact. The temptation to react emotionally—whether by chasing peaks or fleeing during corrections—is strong. But discipline, not emotion, is what wins over time.

With regulatory clarity gaining ground and adoption continuing to advance, we believe digital assets are on solid footing—ready not only to weather the current volatility but to emerge stronger as new regulatory clarity, institutional adoption, and use cases unfold in 2025.


This material expresses Hashdex AG and its subsidiaries and affiliates (“Hashdex”)’s opinion for informational purposes only and does not consider the investment objectives, financial situation or individual needs of one or a particular group of investors. We recommend consulting specialized professionals for investment decisions. Investors are advised to carefully read the prospectus or regulations before investing their funds. The information and conclusions contained in this material may be changed at any time, without prior notice. Nothing contained herein constitutes an offer, solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment management product or service. This information is not directed at or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Hashdex to any registration or licensing requirements within such jurisdiction. No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of Hashdex. By receiving or reviewing this material, you agree that this material is confidential intellectual property of Hashdex and that you will not directly or indirectly copy, modify, recast, publish or redistribute this material and the information therein, in whole or in part, or otherwise make any commercial use of this material without Hashdex’s prior written consent.

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