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Emerging Markets Shake Off Brexit

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China, Brazil, and Hungary are Strong Performers. Emerging Markets Shake Off Brexit. Emerging markets continued to gather momentum

China, Brazil, and Hungary are Strong Performers. Emerging Markets Shake Off Brexit. Emerging markets continued to gather momentum and flows following the June Brexit vote and, in the third quarter, outperformed most global indices including the S&P 500® Index. Large-caps outpaced small-caps, again extending the performance gap for the year. Growth stocks staged a modest comeback over value stocks.

After a couple of quarters of weakness, China was among the best performing countries in the third quarter, accompanied by Brazil (a familiar outperformer this year) and Hungary. India also advanced. Turkey, on the other hand, declined substantially in 3Q as a result of the power grab attempt by Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan following the unsuccessful coup. Technology stocks pushed higher during the quarter to become the third best performing sector for the year following energy and materials. Emerging markets utilities stocks were the worst performers.

3Q’16 Emerging Markets Equity Strategy Review and Positioning

Stock selection added alpha in 3Q, while asset allocation detracted from the strategy’s performance. On a sector level, stock selection in the telecommunications and consumer sectors led the way while stock selection and under allocation to the information technology sector hurt relative performance. On a country level, stock selection in Mexico, Taiwan, and India contributed most to relative performance while stock selection in South Korea, China, and Jordan detracted from relative performance. The strategy’s weighting in small-caps detracted from performance most during the third quarter, while selections in large- and mid-caps aided performance.

3Q Performance Contributors

Our top five contributor companies in 3Q included long-term portfolio position Chinese internet company Tencent Holdings1 and Chinese e-commerce company JD.com,2 both of which rose during the quarter on the back of good earnings results.

India’s Yes Bank Ltd.,3 a high-quality, private sector bank benefited from strong loan and deposit growth, outpaced its peers, while at the same time maintaining a steady non-performing loans level. CP All,4 which operates close to 9,000 corporate, franchise, and sub-area license stores around Thailand reported strong second quarter results, resulting in earnings estimate upgrades.

Finally, Taiwan Semiconductor,5 the undisputed global leader in integrated circuit (IC) manufacturing, benefited from robust sales growth, and a strong 2017 demand outlook.

3Q Performance Detractors

The strategy’s bottom-five performing companies in 3Q included Hikma,6 a London-listed pharmaceutical company with a mix of branded and non-branded generics, and in-licensed drugs. Hikma had a difficult quarter in stock performance terms, reversing a strong second quarter. The proximate cause was a downgrade to company guidance, specifically related to delayed product approvals, which lead most analysts to downgrade earnings for this year, and conservatively, also for 2017.

Robinson Retail,7 a Philippines-based retailer with a variety of retail formats, also reversed relatively strong second quarter performance. In part this was due to a diminished enthusiasm for Philippines stocks generally, following the election of its new president. Although operations for the company are robust, there has been some frustration at the pace of deployment of capital, and concern about strong competition, particularly in Metro Manila.

Techtronic,8 a China-based producer of power tools that are sold mainly in the U.S. and Western Europe, declined due to weaker-than-expected quarterly revenue growth, and higher-than-expected promotional costs on new products, which depressed margins.

Credicorp,9 the leading bank in Peru, pared back gains from earlier in the year after it reported weaker-than-expected loan growth in the second quarter driven by economic uncertainty caused by Peru’s presidential election. Hence, loan growth for the full year is now expected to be lower than the market originally expected.

Eva Precision10 rounds out the performance detractors, and the strategy no longer holds this position. Hopeful signs of better plastic molding orders did not actually translate into orders, leading to worse-than-expected revenue and poor gross margins.

Emerging Markets Challenged by Brexit and “Populist Politics”

Global markets have seen some significant challenges, including record low and negative bond yields and concern about the limits of quantitative easing. Markets have been challenged by Brexit, and concerns about the rise of “populist politics” – to name a few issues. Emerging markets specifically have seen some challenges, including political change in Brazil and an attempted coup in Turkey. Notwithstanding these risks, the summer was actually a period of restrained market volatility, which surprised many market participants.

We Believe that China Should Remain Stable

Many factors combined to create the stronger relative performance from emerging markets during the quarter, and so far this year, compared to global indices. First, the rapid appreciation of the U.S. dollar appears to have faded as market expectation of a U.S. Federal Reserve (“Fed”) rate hike has been pushed back until the end of the year and possibly next year. Second, despite the febrile headline grabbing comments of market pundits, China has not had any kind of “Minsky moment” (a collapse in asset prices following the exhaustion of credit expansion), whether related to capital outflows or leverage. Although we certainly concede that there are some significant imbalances in China’s economy, we believe that the extra “stabilizers” available to authorities will be used to attempt to achieve a reasonably stable outcome over the medium term. Third, the supply and demand equation for commodities looks more balanced. Fourth, earnings are likely to be much less disappointing this year, partly because expectations have been reset to lower levels, and partly because corporates are gradually acclimatizing to a slower growth world and generating more efficiencies, rather than focusing predominantly on top-line growth.

Reform efforts have been uneven in emerging markets, but we are encouraged by the long-term impact of the passage of the GST (goods and services tax) in India. In China, some reform efforts are often opaque and sometimes appear to represent “two steps forward then one back”. The outcome of tax amnesties in India and Indonesia appears to have been better than expected, and, finally, infrastructure projects seem to be developing greater impetus in a number of countries, for example, the Philippines.

Emerging Markets Have Shown Considerable Relative Strength in 2016

We remain constructive on the continuing outperformance of emerging markets in a global context. After an extended period in the wilderness, emerging markets assets have shown considerable relative strength so far this year. We feel that there is reasonable evidence for that outperformance to continue for the asset class as a whole. Broadly speaking, a stable U.S. dollar, better commodities’ prices, a more resilient earnings profile, and light positioning in the asset class ought to combine to increase the relative attractiveness of emerging markets.

One facet of the uptick in interest is that substantially all inflows into the asset class this year have come through passive fund offerings. While appreciating the convenience that ETFs offer, we caution that allocation of capital through market capitalization can be particularly pernicious in emerging markets.

We make this comment because, given the economic history of many emerging markets economies, there are many very large scale state-owned companies in the emerging markets universe. The prominence of these companies we feel comes less from superior competence than from historically state-sponsored systemic advantage which is unlikely to be sustained in the long run. In addition, we believe many of these large companies are essentially driven by global cyclical factors such as energy and materials. We will continue to implement our philosophy of structural growth at a reasonable price. We are not style agnostic, drifting into whatever appears to be working at any given time. We are style specific and we continue to find that there are many areas of superior, sustained growth that are essentially non-cyclical in nature and will likely provide reliable opportunities for well-managed companies to exploit.

While there may be some countries where economic growth has stabilized or even picked up, the evidence for a sustained, strong improvement in global GDP appears limited at best. In a growth-challenged world, our philosophy of focusing on investment opportunities where strong, innovative management teams are able to capitalize on dynamic change and extract real value, ought to be rewarded over the medium term, despite the vagaries of commodity pricing and ETF flows.

Valuations for emerging markets equities and currencies are generally constructive, but not compellingly cheap. Expectations for earnings are much more realistic, and positioning in the asset class is cautious. Delayed expectations of further Fed tightening have also been positive for the asset class. Finally, it is perhaps hard to construct a case for alternative geographies and asset classes; arguably, the U.S. equity market looks overvalued, Japan is struggling with a strong currency, and Europe faces significant questions and uncertainties surrounding its political and economic future.

Consequently, we approach the remainder of this year, and the following years, with cautious optimism for the asset class. Much more importantly, we remain unabashedly enthusiastic about the companies that we actually own in emerging markets. As most investors know, we have a high active share and a healthy skepticism that the large emerging markets companies necessarily represent some of the best investable dynamics in emerging markets.

Post Disclosure

1 Tencent Holdings represented 3.5% of the Fund’s net assets as of 9/30/16.
2 JD.com represented 2.8% of the Fund’s net assets as of 9/30/16.
3 Yes Bank Ltd. represented 3.0% of the Fund’s net assets as of 9/30/16.
4 CP All represented 2.2% of the Fund’s net assets as of 9/30/16.
5 Taiwan Semiconductor represented 2.8% of the Fund’s net assets as of 9/30/16.
6 Hikma represented 0.7% of the Fund’s net assets as of 9/30/16.
7 Robinson Retail represented 1.5% of the Fund’s net assets as of 9/30/16.
8 Techtronic represented 1.4% of the Fund’s net assets as of 9/30/16.
9 Credicorp represented 2.2% of the Fund’s net assets as of 9/30/16.
10 Eva Precision represented 0.0% of the Fund’s net assets as of 9/30/16.

The S&P 500® Index (S&P 500) consists of 500 widely held common stocks covering industrial, utility, financial, and transportation sectors. This Index is unmanaged and does include the reinvestment of all dividends, but does not reflect the payment of transaction costs, advisory fees or expenses that are associated with an investment in the strategy. An index’s performance is not illustrative of the strategy’s performance. Indices are not securities in which investments can be made.

AUTHORED BY

David Semple
Portfolio Manager for the Emerging Markets Equity strategy
Oversees the Emerging Markets Equity team; responsible for company research, stock selection, and portfolio construction
Investment Management Team member since 1998
Prior to joining VanEck, served on the team sub-advising VanEck’s emerging markets VIP insurance fund at Peregrine Asset Management (Hong Kong)
Previously held regional strategy and regional sales positions at Peregrine Brokerage (Hong Kong)
Formerly a portfolio manager specializing in Asian equity markets at Murray Johnstone (Glasgow)
Member of the Association of Investment Management and Research (AIMR); member of the CFA Institute
Media appearances include CNBC, Bloomberg, and NPR; quoted in Financial Times, The Wall Street Journal, and Barron’s, among others
Bachelor of Law with Honors, University of Edinburgh, Scotland

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Why Bitcoin belongs in your portfolio

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Bitcoin is now worth over $100,000, thanks to clearer regulations and growing interest from both big investors and everyday people. What began quietly in 2009 as a digital experiment has evolved into a globally recognized asset. That’s why it’s important to understand why people invest in Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is now worth over $100,000, thanks to clearer regulations and growing interest from both big investors and everyday people. What began quietly in 2009 as a digital experiment has evolved into a globally recognized asset. That’s why it’s important to understand why people invest in Bitcoin.

Mid-year momentum: What are Ethereum and Solana up to?

We’re halfway through 2025, and Ethereum and Solana have already made big moves. Both networks are rolling out major upgrades that could reshape how the crypto space works in the months ahead.

Beyond digital gold: Bitcoin enters the DeFi world

Bitcoin is often seen as a store of value, like digital gold, but hasn’t been known for doing much beyond that. That’s now changing. In 2025, a new trend called Bitcoin Finance (BTC-Fi) is gaining traction, turning Bitcoin into an active part of the broader crypto ecosystem.

Research Newsletter

Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com

Disclaimer

The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.

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USB7 ETF köper amerikanska statsobligationer med löptid upp till tio år

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Amundi US Treasury Bond 7-10Y UCITS ETF Acc (USB7 ETF) med ISIN LU1407887915, försöker följa Bloomberg US Treasury 7-10-index. Bloomberg US Treasury 7-10-index följer amerikanska statsobligationer. Tid till mognad: 7-10 år. Betyg: AAA.

Amundi US Treasury Bond 7-10Y UCITS ETF Acc (USB7 ETF) med ISIN LU1407887915, försöker följa Bloomberg US Treasury 7-10-index. Bloomberg US Treasury 7-10-index följer amerikanska statsobligationer. Tid till mognad: 7-10 år. Betyg: AAA.

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,06% p.a. Amundi US Treasury Bond 7-10Y UCITS ETF Acc är den enda ETF som följer Bloomberg US Treasury 7-10 index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom fullständig replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Ränteintäkterna (kupongerna) i ETFen ackumuleras och återinvesteras.

Amundi US Treasury Bond 7-10Y UCITS ETF Acc är en stor ETF med tillgångar på 751 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 2 juni 2023 och har sin hemvist i Luxemburg.

Investeringsmål

Amundi US Treasury Bond 7-10Y UCITS ETF Acc strävar efter att så nära som möjligt replikera resultatet för Bloomberg US Treasury 7-10 Year Index (”Referensindex”), denominerat i USD, oavsett om trenden stiger eller faller medan minimera volatiliteten i skillnaden mellan delfondens avkastning och indexets avkastning (”Spårningsfelet” För ytterligare information om indexregler, se fondprospektet eller KID).

Handla USB7 ETF

Amundi US Treasury Bond 7-10Y UCITS ETF Acc (USB7 ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och Borsa Italiana.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
XETRAEURUSB7
Borsa ItalianaEURUS7
SIX Swiss ExchangeUSDUS7

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Kryptons revansch: Därför lockar bitcoin investerare igen – så enkelt kan du få dubbel exponering

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Kryptons revansch Bitcoin har åter klivit in i rampljuset. Efter några volatila år växer intresset för kryptovalutor - och det kommer

Bitcoin har åter klivit in i rampljuset. Efter några volatila år växer intresset för kryptovalutor – och det kommer inte bara från teknikentusiaster och privatsparare, utan i allt högre grad från institutionella investerare, stora företag och det politiska ledare.

Men vad driver uppgången – och hur kan du som investerare positionera dig?

En anledning till att bitcoin är hett igen är den nya räntemiljön och oron för ihållande inflation. Många investerare söker tillgångar som kan bevara sitt värde, och bitcoin ses i allt högre grad som ett digitalt guld.

För det andra har bitcoin fått ökad legitimitet bland institutionella investerare. Ifjol godkändes de första spot-ETF:erna för bitcoin i USA – en historisk milstolpe. Dessutom har företag som Visa, Mastercard och PayPal integrerat kryptovalutor i sina system. Denna institutionella genomslag signalerar att bitcoin inte längre är en nischinvestering.

Bitcoin har också en begränsad tillgång, till skillnad från fiatvalutor som kan tryckas i obegränsade mängder. Bitcoin har ett förutbestämt tak på 21 miljoner i antal, vilket gör det attraktivt för den som vill skydda sig mot urholkad köpkraft.

För det fjärde har tekniken har också blivit snabbare, och det är nu enklare än någonsin att använda bitcoin i praktiken. Samtidigt är det nu möjligt att investera i kryptovalutor via vanliga depåer och reglerade börser, utan att behöva hantera privata nycklar eller sätta sig in i tekniska detaljer.

Så får du dubbel exponering – utan terminer eller marginalkonto:

Om du tror på en fortsatt uppgång i kryptomarknaden och vill ha förstärkt exponering, har HANetf lanserat en 2x long bitcoin ETP. Med två gånger hävstång rör sig produktens värde dubbelt så mycket som den underliggande kryptovalutan, dag för dag. Till exempel motsvarar 2 procent uppgång i bitcoin 4 procent ökning i produkten.

En stor fördel med detta investeringsinstrument är att du inte behöver använda derivat, ta lån eller öppna ett särskilt (marginal)konto.

HANetf vill göra taktisk exponering mot krypto tillgänglig för fler investerare på ett reglerat och säkert sätt. Deras utbud av hävstångsprodukter inom krypto (leveraged crypto ETPs) kan handlas via plattformar som Avanza, precis som aktier eller vanliga börshandlade fonder (ETF:er). Den fullständiga listan över handelsplattformar finns på HANetfs webbplats.

Förbindelsen går åt båda hållen – HANetf erbjuder också en Daily Short Bitcoin ETP, som är utformad för att ge investerare ett sätt att få daglig kort exponering mot bitcoin.

Men det är också viktigt att förstå riskerna:

Produkter med hävstång förstärker både vinster och förluster. Därför är det avgörande att ha en tydlig strategi och förstå hur daglig hävstång fungerar. För en mer djupgående genomgång av hur dagliga hävstångs- och short-ETP:er fungerar, kan du läsa hela förklaringsguiden på HANetf:s webbplats.

Dessa produkter passar bäst för erfarna investerare med ett kortsiktigt perspektiv.

HANetf erbjuder också en motsvarande 2x hävstång för kryptovalutan Ethereum.

Handla 2LBT ETC

2x Long Bitcoin ETC (2LBT ETC) är en europeisk börshandlad kryptovaluta. Denna börshandlade produkt handlas på Nasdaq Stockholm.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel  NordnetSAVRLevlerDEGIRO och Avanza.

Handla 2LET ETC

2x Long Ethereum (2LET ETC) är en europeisk börshandlad kryptovaluta. Denna börshandlade produkt handlas på Nasdaq Stockholm.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel  NordnetSAVRLevlerDEGIRO och Avanza.

Handla 2SBT ETC

2x Short Bitcoin (2SBT ETC) är en europeisk börshandlad kryptovaluta. Denna börshandlade produkt handlas på Nasdaq Stockholm.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel  NordnetSAVRLevlerDEGIRO och Avanza.

OM HANetf:

HANetf är en oberoende leverantör av börshandlade produkter (ETP:er) som samarbetar med kapitalförvaltare för att erbjuda unika, moderna och innovativa investeringsmöjligheter för europeiska investerare.

Genom en white-label-plattform erbjuds en komplett lösning för att lansera och hantera UCITS-ETFer och ETC:er – inklusive drift, regelverk, distribution och marknadsföring – åt kapitalförvaltare över hela världen.

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