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Don’t sell your long duration bonds

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We expect a gradual flattening of the US Treasury yield curve, providing grounds for holding long duration bonds. ETF Securities

ETF Securities Fixed Income Research – Don’t sell your long duration bonds

Highlights

  • We expect a gradual flattening of the US Treasury yield curve, providing grounds for holding long duration bonds.
  • The major source of bond returns have come from coupons, not capital gains over the past seven years.
  • Greater bond portfolio convexity gives the best returns in a volatile interest rate environment.

Global yields are picking-up

Global yields have bounced back from extremely low levels as expectations intensify about major central banks unwinding quantitative easing and normalising monetary policy. The shifting tone from central bankers in the western developed world has been driving a two-week global sovereign bond rout. In June and early July, global government bond yields rose by 25bps on average.

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The CFTC futures data shows net short speculative positioning at the front-end and net long speculative positioning at the long-end of the US yield curve, suggesting that investors are not yet convinced that economic conditions are improving to a point that drastically changes the GDP and inflation outlook. Additionally, the net long positions on the 10-year US Treasury notes is extreme: it has reached levels last seen in 2007.

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The Fed’s previous monetary tightening cycles have coincided with low asset price volatility and a bear flattening of the Treasury yield curve (short-end yields rising at a faster rate than the long-end). The 10yr – 2yr Treasury yield spread has already collapsed by 190bps since the end of the financial crisis and volatility is extremely low.

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The gradual pace of interest rate increases should place greater upward pressure at the front-end of the yield curve relative to the long-end. We believe the subdued inflation outlook coupled with the structural demand for long-dated bonds will partly offset the upward pressures on the long-end caused by the unwind of quantitative easing policies and the normalisation of central banks’ balance sheets. Thus, we expect a gradual flattening of the yield curve, with relatively low impact on long duration bonds.

Duration compensation at all-time low

Duration is a measure of a bond’s sensitivity to changes in interest rates. While the maturity of a bond is directly related to duration, the coupon rates and interest rates are inversely related to duration. For example, a bond with a duration of 5 would expect to lose roughly 5% if interest rates rose by 1%. A zero-coupon bond has a duration that is equal to its remaining maturity, while a coupon bond has a duration shorter than its maturity.

Typically, the longer the maturity, the higher the duration and the higher the interest rate risk. Bonds with longer duration fall in value with an increase in yields, while shorter duration bonds rise in value with an increase in yields. The average duration of global bonds has expanded after the financial crisis partly due to issuers taking advantage of cheaper long-term financing conditions permitted by extremely accommodative monetary policies worldwide. As a result, the duration risk compensation declined alongside the long-term yields before stabilising at historically low levels.

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In a context of rising interest rates, investors generally shift toward shorter maturity bonds or higher coupon bonds in order to reduce the interest rate risk (i.e. duration) in their portfolios. The Fed’s monetary tightening is likely to affect short-, medium- and long-term rates differently, which represents a challenge for bonds investors wanting to adjust duration for rising interest rates. In general, shorter maturity bonds have lower sensitivity to an increase in rates but also have lower coupon returns than longer dated bonds and might not fully compensate for inflation.

However, coupon returns typically represent the main contributor to the bond total return while in comparison capital gains are negligible1, particularly for long-term investors for diversification and income. Overall, adjusting duration is a trade-off between lower capital risk and higher coupon return. Therefore, short duration strategies might underperform long duration strategies in a rising interest rate environment.

Convexity provides returns when volatility rises

Another way of hedging against interest rate risk is through portfolio immunisation strategies where the average bond portfolio’s duration equals investors’ investment horizon. In this strategy, any changes to interest rates will affect both the price and the reinvestment of the coupon payments at the same rate so that the rate of return is fixed over the investment period. Institutional investors, such as pension funds, use them extensively. However, this strategy can be costly as it needs frequent rebalancing.

In the example below, we illustrate that having long duration bonds in an immunised portfolio can actually increase returns despite interest rate fluctuations. We have built two hypothetical immunised portfolios of two bonds with the same credit quality but with different coupon rates, maturity and duration. The portfolio 1 includes two bonds with a duration of 4 and 6 years, while the portfolio 2 includes two bonds with a duration of 4 and 16 years.

Both portfolios have the same average duration of 5 years, which matches our investment horizon. We conducted a static analysis where only interest rates vary around their current level of 2% to see how our two portfolios behave. Our example shows that portfolio 2, which includes a longer duration bond, gives the best returns at any level of yields. In addition, the immunised portfolio with the greater convexity2 – as defined by the curvature of the relationship between the bond price and yield – gives the best return regardless of whether interest rates rise or fall.

(click to enlarge)

As we head into global monetary policy normalisation, interest rate volatility will likely increase which would justify holding bond portfolios with higher convexity.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”).

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Michael Saylor’s bold Bitcoin bet and Strategy’s risk analysis

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Michael Saylor’s bold Bitcoin bet and Strategy’s risk analysis Bitcoin price technical analysis: Where are the liquidation levels?
  • Michael Saylor’s bold Bitcoin bet and Strategy’s risk analysis
  • Bitcoin price technical analysis: Where are the liquidation levels?
  • What are real-world assets and why do we need tokenization?

Michael Saylor’s bold Bitcoin bet and Strategy’s risk analysis

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has amassed a staggering $43 billion in Bitcoin, positioning itself at the forefront of the corporate “reserve race.” Under the leadership of Bitcoin maximalist Michael Saylor, the company now boasts an $84 billion market cap. But with such an aggressive strategy, how sustainable is its approach—and what risks lie ahead? We break it down in today’s analysis.

Bitcoin price technical analysis: Where are the liquidation levels?

A drop below $72,000 could flush longs, while a breakout above $90,000 may squeeze shorts. One key positive indicator is that Bitcoin continues to print higher lows since March 10, which preserves a bullish market structure in our view. Dive into our technical analysis.

What are real-world assets and why do we need tokenization?

Imagine owning a slice of a skyscraper or a piece of fine art with just a few clicks. Tokenization, the act of converting ownership rights to real-world assets (RWAs) into tradable tokens, has surpassed $10 billion in on-chain value, unlocking global 24/7 access to once-exclusive markets with liquidity, efficiency, and yield. Find out how it works.

Research Newsletter

Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com

Disclaimer

The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.

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BSE0 ETF köper bara företagsobligationer med förfall 2030

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Invesco BulletShares 2030 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Acc (BSE0 ETF) med ISIN IE000I25S1V5, försöker följa Bloomberg 2030 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened-index. Bloomberg 2030 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened Index följer företagsobligationer denominerade i EUR. Indexet speglar inte ett konstant löptidsintervall (som är fallet med de flesta andra obligationsindex). Istället ingår endast obligationer som förfaller under det angivna året (här: 2030) i indexet. Indexet består av ESG (environmental, social and governance) screenade företagsobligationer. Betyg: Investment Grade. Löptid: december 2030 (Denna ETF kommer att stängas efteråt).

Invesco BulletShares 2030 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Acc (BSE0 ETF) med ISIN IE000I25S1V5, försöker följa Bloomberg 2030 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened-index. Bloomberg 2030 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened Index följer företagsobligationer denominerade i EUR. Indexet speglar inte ett konstant löptidsintervall (som är fallet med de flesta andra obligationsindex). Istället ingår endast obligationer som förfaller under det angivna året (här: 2030) i indexet. Indexet består av ESG (environmental, social and governance) screenade företagsobligationer. Betyg: Investment Grade. Löptid: december 2030 (Denna ETF kommer att stängas efteråt).

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,10 % p.a. Invesco BulletShares 2030 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Acc är den billigaste och största ETF som följer Bloomberg 2030 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom samplingsteknik (köper ett urval av de mest relevanta indexbeståndsdelarna). Ränteintäkterna (kupongerna) ackumuleras och återinvesteras.

Invesco BulletShares 2030 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Acc är en mycket liten ETF med tillgångar på 6 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 18 juni 2024 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Produktbeskrivning

Invesco BulletShares 2030 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF Acc syftar till att ge den totala avkastningen för Bloomberg 2030 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened Index (”Referensindexet”), minus avgifternas inverkan. Fonden har en fast löptid och kommer att upphöra på Förfallodagen.

Referensindexet är utformat för att återspegla resultatet för EUR-denominerade, investeringsklassade, fast ränta, skattepliktiga skuldebrev emitterade av företagsemittenter. För att vara berättigade till inkludering måste företagsvärdepapper ha minst 300 miljoner euro i nominellt utestående belopp och en effektiv löptid på eller mellan 1 januari 2030 och 31 december 2030.

Värdepapper är uteslutna om emittenter: 1) är inblandade i kontroversiella vapen, handeldvapen, militära kontrakt, oljesand, termiskt kol eller tobak; 2) inte har en kontroversnivå enligt definitionen av Sustainalytics eller har en Sustainalytics-kontroversnivå högre än 4; 3) anses inte följa principerna i FN:s Global Compact; eller 4) kommer från tillväxtmarknader.

Portföljförvaltarna strävar efter att uppnå fondens mål genom att tillämpa en urvalsstrategi, som inkluderar användning av kvantitativ analys, för att välja en andel av värdepapperen från referensindexet som representerar hela indexets egenskaper, med hjälp av faktorer som index- vägd genomsnittlig varaktighet, industrisektorer, landvikter och kreditkvalitet. När en företagsobligation som innehas av fonden når förfallodag kommer kontanterna som fonden tar emot att användas för att investera i kortfristiga EUR-denominerade skulder.

ETFen förvaltas passivt.

En investering i denna fond är ett förvärv av andelar i en passivt förvaltad indexföljande fond snarare än i de underliggande tillgångarna som ägs av fonden.

Förfallodag: andra onsdagen i december 2026 eller sådant annat datum som bestäms av styrelseledamöterna och meddelas aktieägaren

Handla BSE0 ETF

Invesco BulletShares 2030 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Acc (BSE0 ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
XETRAEURBSE0

Största innehav

NamnCUSIPISINKupongräntaVikt %
Fresenius SE & Co KGaA 5.125% 05/10/30D2R9K1AL3XS26987136955.1252.55%
Mercedes-Benz Group AG 2.375% 22/05/30D1668RZW0DE000A289XG82.3752.19%
Akzo Nobel NV 1.625% 14/04/30N01803YV6XS21565982811.6252.08%
Eni SpA 0.625% 23/01/30T3666JJV9XS21073154700.6251.98%
Prologis International Funding II 2.375% 14/11/30L7763MAD2XS19046903412.3751.78%
REWE International Finance BV 4.875% 13/09/30N74119AA1XS26798981844.8751.65%
CaixaBank SA 4.25% 06/09/30E2R193R97XS26768144994.2501.64%
Verizon Communications Inc 4.25% 31/10/30XS25508811434.2501.64%
Liberty Mutual Group Inc 4.625% 02/12/30U52932BR7XS25616473684.6251.62%
AXA SA 3.75% 12/10/30F0609NBG2XS25372511703.7501.60%

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US regulatory shift provides a beacon for optimism

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Since President Trump appointed Mark Uyeda as acting SEC chair two months ago, many investigations into crypto businesses have been dropped, as the SEC moves away from regulation by enforcement and works to create a framework for digital assets. As regulations become clearer and news flow turns more positive, crypto prices—which dropped sharply this week—should begin to better reflect the new regulatory landscape in the US.

Since President Trump appointed Mark Uyeda as acting SEC chair two months ago, many investigations into crypto businesses have been dropped, as the SEC moves away from regulation by enforcement and works to create a framework for digital assets. As regulations become clearer and news flow turns more positive, crypto prices—which dropped sharply this week—should begin to better reflect the new regulatory landscape in the US.

We believe this regulatory shift could ultimately help trigger the next leg of the current bull run, as investors better understand the significance of regulatory clarity and seek to acquire bitcoin and altcoins at what we believe are currently very favorable levels.

Market Highlights

SEC Dismisses Crypto Enforcement Actions

The SEC dropped its enforcement actions against crypto-related companies Kraken, Consensys, and Cumberland DRW.

This indicates a shift in SEC’s regulatory approach, favoring clearer guidelines over enforcement actions. Such a pivot could foster a more predictable environment, encouraging innovation within the sector.

Banks to Engage in Crypto Activities

The FDIC has rescinded previous guidelines which prevented financial institutions from engaging with crypto activities without prior sign-off.

By removing bureaucratic hurdles, banks may more readily offer crypto-related services, potentially leading to broader adoption and integration of digital assets.

Bitcoin ETFs Inflow Streak Surpassed $1 Billion

US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded a 10-day inflow streak exceeding $1 billion marking the longest such streak in 2025.

This underscores growing institutional and retail investor confidence in Bitcoin as an asset class that helps increase market stability and possibly paving the way for the approval of other crypto-based financial products.

Market Metrics

All NCITM constituents had negative performance last week, with XRP (-10.8%) and UNI (-10.7%) seeing the steepest declines. ETH also experienced a sharp drop (-9.1%), contributing to NCITM’s underperformance relative to BTC (-2.9%). The NCITM -4.2% decline reflects a broader risk-off sentiment in the crypto market, as investors reassess their positions amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties.

NCITM (-4.2%) extended its underperformance last week, deepening year-to-date losses. Traditional indices like the S&P 500 (-1.5%) and Nasdaq 100 (-2.4%) saw smaller declines. The gap between crypto and other risk assets continues to widen, while gold has emerged as the top performer in 2025, gaining nearly 20% amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties. This trend highlights a growing risk-off sentiment, with investors shifting toward defensive assets and away from high-volatility investments.

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