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Crypto Outlook 25 + Nov. market update and perf attrib of our ETPs

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Prior to my regular monthly crypto update, I am pleased to share few things today, the day that Bitcoin broke 100k USD!

Prior to my regular monthly crypto update, I am pleased to share few things today, the day that Bitcoin broke 100k USD!

Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index Europe ETP (“HDX1”) has won the Digital Assets ETP of the Year award at the ETF Stream Awards 2024! This prestigious recognition places HASH among the best, celebrating its excellence in the European ETF ecosystem.

In addition, we have published our perspectives and outlook for next year: Hashdex 2025 Crypto Investment Oulook – Into the Mainstream.

In this report you will find valuable insights from our team:

• Crypto´s shot: The plan is to fan this spark into a flame – A note from CEO Marcelo Sampaio

• 2025, the Year of Generalisation: Institutional adoption, regulatory advancements, and a surge in opportunities – Samir Kerbage, CIO

• An Ocean of Opportunities: Growing integration of crypto into traditional finance and the digital economy – Pedro Lapenta, Head of Research

• Bitcoin Takes the Leap: On its way to being recognized as a store of value, with record inflows into ETFs – Lucas Santana, Research Analyst

• The Next ”Killer App” and Blockchain Innovations: Stablecoins, scalability, and decentralized applications – Yuri Alter, Research Analyst

• Macro and Institutional Context: Bitcoin halving, demand shock, and a pro-crypto environment in the United States – João Marco Cunha, Head of Portfolio Management

Happy to organise a call with our Research to discuss further about it and share our views.

Following with our November crypto market update and performance attributions of our Crypto Index ETPs.

One thing to note that we have constantly said: Crypto is more than Bitcoin, thus over the long run we are conviced Index investing is the way to go… In the current environment this crypto index investment case is stronger than ever!

See our Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index ETP (HDX1) and Hashdex Crypto Momentum Factor ETP (HDXM) vs iShares Bitcoin ETF since the US elections 505/11 to 04/12, source Bloomberg):

Hashdex Crypto Index ETPs: performances (USD) as of end of November 24

Beta Index ETP – Nasdaq Crypto Index ETP (HASH or HDX1) (largest Crypto Index ETP in Europe): November: +45.7%, YTD +111.62%, 12M +146.42%.

• Smart-Beta Index ETP – Crypto Momentum Index ETP (HAMO or HDXM): November: +62.6%, YTD 70.4%, 12M +127.3%.

Market Update – November 24

November marked a historic month for crypto assets. The Nasdaq Crypto Index (NCI) closed the month with an unprecedented gain of 45.7%, driven by Bitcoin’s rally to new all-time highs and an even stronger performance from smaller-cap crypto assets. Bitcoin surged 38%, surpassing $75,000 the day after Trump’s victory and nearing $100,000 by the end of the month. This incredible performance signals the market’s optimism toward the election of a pro-crypto government in the U.S.

However, Bitcoin’s performance was only part of the story. Altcoins significantly outperformed, as Trump’s victory was interpreted as a signal for regulatory relief and institutional expansion into crypto. XRP and Cardano led the charge, skyrocketing 274% and 219%, respectively. Other notable performers included Solana (+125%), Ethereum (+65%), and Algorand (+210%), all benefiting from renewed optimism and increased adoption across their ecosystems. These results highlight the widespread rally across different segments of the crypto market, underscoring the depth and breadth of November’s momentum.

Nasdaq Crypto Index (NCI) relative to other asset class in November 24

Source: Hashdex, as of 30/11/24, HAMO for Crypto Momentum Index, the underlying of HAMO ETP.

In comparison to traditional markets, the NCI’s 45.7% gain dwarfed the returns of the S&P 500 (+4.2%) and Nasdaq 100 (+6.5%), both of which saw solid but comparatively modest growth following the U.S. election. This month’s results highlight the NCI’s capacity to deliver outsized returns during periods of favorable macroeconomic and political conditions.

Performance attribution:

Nasdaq Crypto Index (NCI)
The NCI’s exceptional performance in November was broad-based, with every constituent delivering positive returns. While Bitcoin (+38%) anchored the index, smaller assets delivered extraordinary gains. XRP (+274%) and Cardano (+219%) were the standouts, benefiting from the perception of regulatory relief under a pro-crypto administration. Other notable contributors included Solana (+125%), Algorand (+210%), and Ethereum (+65%), reflecting the strength of the altcoin market. They were the real driver of the index’s outperformance.

It is important to highlight the diversification role. In November, the NCI outperformed Bitcoin due to its basket containing other crypto assets that delivered better performance. As such, the index is designed to capture the overall development of the market rather than focusing solely on a single asset.

Source: Hashdex, as of 30/11/24.

Crypto Momentum Factor Index

The Crypto Momentum Factor Index gained an impressive 62.5%, driven by its heavy weighting toward high-performing altcoins. Cardano, Hedera, and Algorand were the top performers, with returns exceeding 200%. TRON (TRX), the largest-weighted asset in the index, rose by 21.9%, providing more modest but steady gains.

Source: Hashdex, as of 30/11/24.

Correlation (3m) to traditional asset classes

Source: Hashdex, as of 30/11/24. NCI for Nasdaq Crypto Index.

Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index ETP

Largest Crypto Index ETP in Europe, AUM ~$630m

ISIN: CH1184151731 / Tickers: HASH (SIX and Euronext) or HDX1 (Xetra) – tradable in USD, EUR, CHF and GBP

Hashdex Crypto Momentum Factor ETP

ISIN: CH1218734544 / Tickers: HAMO (SIX and Euronext) or HDXM (Xetra) – tradable in USD, EUR, CHF and GBP

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Is altcoin season finally back? Here’s what investors need to know

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The crypto market is heating up again, and it’s not just Bitcoin in the spotlight. Other cryptocurrencies, also known as altcoins, are also gaining momentum. Earlier this year, we shared a report on why altcoins were struggling to bounce back in 2025. But now, after months of slow and sideways movement, signs are emerging that the long-awaited altcoin season might finally be starting.

The crypto market is heating up again, and it’s not just Bitcoin in the spotlight. Other cryptocurrencies, also known as altcoin, are also gaining momentum. Earlier this year, we shared a report on why altcoins were struggling to bounce back in 2025. But now, after months of slow and sideways movement, signs are emerging that the long-awaited altcoin season might finally be starting.

So, what’s driving this shift? Let’s break it down.

Bitcoin loses ground as other cryptos rise

Bitcoin’s share of the cryptocurrency market has dropped from a high of 65.1% on June 27 to 59.2% this week, marking one of its largest declines this year. In the past, when Bitcoin’s dominance fell below 55%, it usually signaled the start of an ”altcoin season,” when other cryptocurrencies tend to perform better than Bitcoin. We’re not quite there yet, but things seem to be heading in that direction.


Meanwhile, Ethereum has been climbing fast, rising from under $2,350 to a recent high of $3,843, its highest price since March. In past bull runs, Ethereum’s rise has often been an early sign that an ”altcoin season” might be coming. That’s because when Ethereum rises, it typically indicates that investors are shifting funds from Bitcoin to other, more volatile cryptocurrencies, including smaller and newer ones

Altcoin season index flashes a cautious green

According to the Altcoin Season Index by CoinMarketCap, 56 of the top 100 coins have outperformed Bitcoin in the past 90 days, a classic threshold for the beginning of altcoin season. The index currently hovers around 56 points, in early altcoin season territory.


…So where is the money flowing?

The altcoin rally isn’t spread out evenly, and different types of coins are gaining for different reasons:

• Memecoins like Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) are leading the pack, jumping a massive 611% in the last 90 days. SPX6900 (SPX) is also up 285%.

• DeFi tokens such as Aave and Uniswap are getting attention again, thanks to talks about sharing fees with users.

• Older tokens from past crypto cycles are making a comeback. These coins are more familiar and easier to trade, so money is flowing into them first.

• AI-related coins like Virtual and Bittensor are doing well, too.

Meanwhile, Solana has climbed back above $200, and XRP hit a new yearly high of $3.64, helped by the growing excitement around crypto ETFs.

Not a full altcoin season, yet

Even though many altcoins are rising, we’re not seeing the kind of “everything goes up” rally from past altcoin seasons. Instead, the current cycle is more focused, with gains mostly in specific sectors like:

• Projects with real-world use or strong stories

• Hyped memecoins

• Tokens gaining interest from big investors or ETFs

What’s next?

Big-picture events, such as US crypto regulations, expected Fed rate cuts, and China’s economic support, could boost market liquidity. That said, it’s still early. While momentum is growing, true altcoin seasons are only clear in hindsight. For now, things are heating up quickly, but caution is still wise.

Research Newsletter

Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com

Disclaimer

The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.

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HANetf lanserar QUAD ETF mitt i spänningar i Asien

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HANetfs medvd Hector McNeil pratade med Proactive om lanseringen av Future of Defence Indo-Pacific ex-China UCITS ETF (LSE: QUAD).

HANetfs medvd Hector McNeil pratade med Proactive om lanseringen av Future of Defence Indo-Pacific ex-China UCITS ETF (LSE: QUAD).

McNeil förklarade motivationen bakom att rikta in sig på Indo-Stillahavsregionen, efter framgången med HANetfs NATO- och europeiska försvars-ETFer. Han betonade att geopolitisk dynamik, särskilt det ökande trycket från USA på dess asiatiska allierade att öka militära utgifter, formar långsiktiga teman för försvarsinvesteringar.

”Nästa steg i denna globala makrohistoria kommer att vara att den amerikanska regimen, Trump etc. sätter press på sina asiatiska allierade”, sa McNeil. Han pekade på de senaste regionala spänningarna – inklusive konflikterna mellan Indien och Pakistan, Kinas aggression i Taiwansundet och sammandrabbningar mellan Thailand och Kambodja – som katalysatorer som stöder en hållbar försvarsupptrappning.

McNeil namngav viktiga företag i ETFen, såsom Hanwha Aerospace, Korea Aerospace, Mitsubishi och Austal Limited. Han betonade att några av dessa företag har sett begränsade värderingsökningar, vilket tyder på betydande uppåtpotential. Han tillade att QUAD ETF skulle kunna dra nytta av fördelen att vara först med investeringarna och sa: ”Jag tror att vi kan… ta över lejonparten av pengarna inom detta område.”

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ESAB ETF spårar globala företag med höga ESG-betyg

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BNP Paribas Easy MSCI ACWI SRI S-Series PAB 5% Capped UCITS ETF EUR C (ESAB ETF) med ISIN IE0004HBJKG0, försöker följa MSCI ACWI SRI S-Series PAB 5% Capped-index.

BNP Paribas Easy MSCI ACWI SRI S-Series PAB 5% Capped UCITS ETF EUR C (ESAB ETF) med ISIN IE0004HBJKG0, försöker följa MSCI ACWI SRI S-Series PAB 5% Capped-index.

MSCI ACWI SRI S-Series PAB 5% Capped-index spårar globala aktiemarknaders prestanda (utvecklade och tillväxtmarknader) och tar endast hänsyn till företag med höga miljö-, sociala och styrningsbetyg (ESG) i förhållande till sina branschkollegor, för att säkerställa inkluderingen av de bästa klassföretag ur ett ESG-perspektiv. Dessutom är företag som är involverade i följande branscher exkluderade: Kolbrytning för kraftproduktion, konventionell och alternativ olje-/gasutvinning, kraftproduktion från fossila bränslen och kärnenergi. Vikten för varje företag är begränsad till 5 %.

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,20 % per år. BNP Paribas Easy MSCI ACWI SRI S-Series PAB 5% Capped UCITS ETF EUR C är den billigaste och största ETF som följer MSCI ACWI SRI S-serien PAB 5 % Begränsat index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom full replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i ETFen ackumuleras och återinvesteras.

BNP Paribas Easy MSCI ACWI SRI S-Series PAB 5% Capped UCITS ETF EUR C är en liten ETF med tillgångar på 31 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 8 april 2024 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Handla ESAB ETF

BNP Paribas Easy MSCI ACWI SRI S-Series PAB 5% Capped UCITS ETF EUR C (ESAB ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och Euronext Amsterdam.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
Euronext AmsterdamUSDPAACE
Borsa ItalianaEURPAACE
Euronext ParisEURPAACE
XETRAEURESAB

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