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Crypto Markets Persevere, Investor Appetite for Web 3 Grows, and More!
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10 månader sedanden
Markets continued to tumble on the back of regulatory headwinds in the US and speculation around the soaring transaction fees on the Bitcoin network, signaling unprecedented congestion. Bitcoin and Ethereum fell by 5% and 1% over the past week following the continued banking crisis. One of the biggest winners of last week’s rally was Stacks, which saw an 8.6% increase in returns and an 8% jump in total value locked (TVL) as its use case echoed louder on the back of Bitcoin’s rising transaction fees. In the application layer, Lido accrued the most TVL of 1.4% on the back of ETH inflows in anticipation of its staked ETH withdrawals expected to happen this month.
Figure 1: 7-Day Price and TVL Developments of Cryptoassets in Major Sectors
Source: 21Shares, CoinGecko, DeFi Llama. Close data as of May 8, 2023.
Key takeaways
• The surge in Ordinals inscriptions contributes to Bitcoin network congestion with rising transaction fees.
• Speculation drives BTC outflows from centralized exchanges like Binance, which briefly paused BTC withdrawals.
• Bitcoin continues to grow beyond the store-of-value use case and enters the realm of Decentralized Finance with a new-yet-basic token standard, BRC-20.
• Bitcoin is experiencing its CryptoKitties moment with BRC-20 tokens as Ethereum did during the ICO craze of 2017-2018; this congestion crisis laid the foundation for decentralized applications and scaling solutions.
What happened?
• March 2023: An anonymous on-chain analyst named Domo created BRC-20, a token standard for minting tokens or “inscriptions” that carry text strings on Bitcoin.
• Domo minted $ORDI, which stands as the largest BRC-20 of $73M in market capitalization.
• NFT inscriptions surged on Ordinals, 4.5M at the time of writing
Figure 2: Number of Ordinal Inscriptions’
Source: 21shares on Dune Analytics
• Total transaction fees soared and temporarily exceeded the block subsidy reward of 6.25 BTC for the second time in history.
Figure 3: The Percentage of Fees Accrued from Bitcoin Ordinals
Source: 21shares on Dune Analytics
May 7:
• Speculation spread on Twitter around the reason behind soaring transaction fees; some concluded that the network was under a “Denial of Service attack.”
• Others have immediately rebuffed that conclusion, arguing that the rise in transaction fees is due to the increased demand for the Bitcoin network. However, selling pressure on BTC still increased by 3% overnight.
• Binance paused BTC withdrawals twice on Sunday, for two hours each, due to record-high pending transactions.
May 8:
• Binance resumed withdrawals and announced transaction fees adjustment while exploring integrating the
Lightning Network.
What to expect?
Bitcoin’s growth beyond a Store-of-Value (SoV)
With the recent advancements driven by Ordinals and BRC-20 tokens, Bitcoin is now becoming a platform capable of hosting various use cases beyond payments. The developments surrounding Ordinals will change the public perception of Bitcoin as a stagnant blockchain and introduce novel concepts to help drive talent and innovation to the largest crypto asset by market capitalization. Inscriptions could be the catalyst needed to help trigger the explosive growth of scalability solutions that enable the Bitcoin network to reach its full potential and start offering revenue streams for miners who can’t rely solely on new Bitcoin emissions, as the last bear market has shown. We can argue that Bitcoin is experiencing its CryptoKitties moment with BRC-20 tokens like Ethereum did during the ICO craze of 2017-2018, which then laid the foundation for DeFi and scaling solutions.
Increased Appetite for BRC-20 Token Standard
Although most of the new tokens are meme-coins, to reflect the broader meme craze, it’s only a matter of time until more fundamentally sound applications and use cases enter the market. For example, a forked version of Uniswap V2 on Bitcoin is already deployed, allowing anyone to trade seamlessly and 24/7 Bitcoin-based cryptoassets. We also predict blockchains designed as simple payment networks could introduce comparable standards to onboard more on-chain activity onto their platforms. Litecoin community has already taken the lead with its inauguration of LTC20, a fork of the BRC20 standard, to experiment with asset fungibility on top of its mainnet.
Further, we expect Tier-2 exchanges to list BRC-20 tokens to benefit from their early speculative adoption, although most lack utility so far, and investors should remain cautious. For instance, Gate.io and Crypto.com listed ORDI, the native token of the protocol used to create Bitcoin NFTs, to take advantage of the asset’s surging traded volume, recording close to $100M. We may expect more innovation inspired by the Ethereum ecosystem. Interlay Labs, the company behind the BTC-based DeFi protocol, has already proposed BRC-21, a new token standard that allows for a more sophisticated implementation of tokens like minting and redeeming. An innovation that would introduce the concept of native tokenization on Bitcoin, like US dollar stablecoins.
Figure 4: Breakdown of Bitcoin Marketplaces and Wallets by Processed Volume
Source: Domo on Dune
Growing Attention Towards Scalability Solutions
Figure 5: BTC Average Fee Per Transaction in $
Source: Blockchain.com
We expect more development across the broader scaling infrastructure, such as Stacks, RSK, Liquid, and Rollkit. Scaling solutions are necessary to improve the user experience seamlessly without paying high transaction fees.
We could also expect renewed developer engagement and funding to solve Bitcon’s most crucial problems. On the flip side, it’s possible to expect a community divide where on the one hand, the most conservative participants may want Bitcoin to remain simple. In contrast, others would try to push the boundaries of innovation. The latter received some support already with Lightning’s Taro protocol helping with general token issuance on Bitcoin instead of RGB, which is more relevant for supporting complex financial applications.
Miners’ Revenue to Flourish with Rising Use Cases
Although the explosion of Ordinals has effectively crippled the network via its unusable elevated fees, the development has greatly benefited Bitcoin miners. Before 2023, transaction fees barely made up to 4% of miners’ revenue due to the lackluster demand on the Bitcoin blockspace. However, if the recent speculative wave doesn’t slow down in the near term, we could expect miners’ profit margins to continue to grow incrementally. This should particularly help miners build a cash buffer to weather the uncertainty in the U.S., considering it is their largest stronghold after the miner departure from China in 2021.
For reference, transaction fees have surged by 1,500% from $1.2 to ~$15 in a week. As seen below, Bitcoin miners have generated close to $40M during just the first week of May from transaction fees, a level last seen in June 2021 amidst the last bull market. This is a remarkable milestone as it shows the potential of Bitcoin as a globally trusted settlement layer for a complex ecosystem of applications, combined with being a non-state monetary system.
Figure 6: Bitcoin Miner Revenue Breakdown (Issuance + Transaction Fees)
Source: 21shares on Dune
MEV is likely to manifest on Bitcoin
Figure 7: Bitcoin Transaction Value in $
Source: blockchain.com
The practice of validators, including, excluding, or reordering transactions to extract the most value from fees, otherwise known as Maximum Extractable Value (MEV), could happen to Bitcoin if the network continues to process high-value transactions. There needed to be more incentive for validators to participate in this toxic economic behavior as the Bitcoin network was primarily limited to a simple payments network without any complex logic before 2023.
However, the innovations introduced by Ordinals and BRC20 indicate that more value will be transferred across the network as a function of the issued fungible assets market value. That means miners will be incentivized to reorder transactions from the highest fees to the lowest to profit off this activity. That said, we anticipate that MEV will take place on the Bitcoin network first since most scalability platforms haven’t reached mass adoption.
Potential Resurgence of Increased Block Size Debate to Scale Bitcoin
Figure 8: Bitcoin Mempool Congestion
Source: mempool.space (as of 12 PM, May 9, 2023)
As the Bitcoin network processes five transactions per second on average, the vast influx of demand is crippling the network’s ability to continue processing transactions promptly due to the staggering backlog of 410K pending transactions. The congestion driven by the BRC20 craze might drive some of the community to push once again the idea of increasing Bitcoin block size to accommodate for a higher number of transactions.
Figure 9: Bitcoin Block Size
Source: 21shares on Dune
Block-size wars are a trend that took off in 2017 when the contentious debate brought forward multiple Bitcoin forks, with Bitcoin Cash being the most notable. That said, there’s a strong case against adopting this approach as it reduces BTC’s decentralization since it becomes costlier for nodes to store the entire blockchain history due to its rapidly growing network size. May that be, dissidents could still push the idea of forking BTC, analogous to how Ethereum was forked into multiple protocols following the merge last September, despite lacking any significant community support. However, we don’t expect bifurcated networks to hold any value aking to ETH’s recent forks post the Merge.
Next Week’s Calendar
Source: Forex Factory, CoinMarketCal
Read full report here
Research Newsletter
Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com
Disclaimer
The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.
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ETC Groups grundare och VD Tim Bevan ansluter sig till Proactives William Farrington för att diskutera Bitcoins extraordinära ökning och Bitcoins rally.
För första gången i sin 15-åriga existens slog Bitcoin ett all-time-high genom att under förra veckan handlas över 72 000 USD, vilket visade upp en anmärkningsvärd ökning med 70 % hittills i år och en veckotillväxt på 9 %.
Bevan pratar om ETF-godkännanden, förväntade räntesänkningar, den kommande halveringshändelsen och FOMOs roll i det senaste rallyt.
Chatten växlar till Storbritanniens omfamning av kryptostödda Exchange Traded Notes (ETNs), vad detta betyder för de underliggande spotmarknaderna och varför vakthundar som begränsar denna marknad till professionella investerare skulle kunna begränsa dess expansionspotential.
På det kommande Bitcoin Halving-evenemanget betonade Bevan dess historiska betydelse för att påverka Bitcoins pris, även om han spekulerade i att dess effekt kan variera med de nuvarande marknadsförhållandena.
Trots förväntningar om volatilitet tyder de bestående principerna för utbud och efterfrågan på att Bitcoins pris är inställt på att behålla sin uppåtgående trend.
Handla BTCE ETC
ETC Group Physical Bitcoin (BTCE ETC) är en börsnoterad kryptovaluta som handlas på Euronext Paris och tyska XETRA.
Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRO, Nordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.
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WTEF ETF ger exponering mot amerikanska large caps
Publicerad
9 timmar sedanden
18 mars, 2024WisdomTree US Efficient Core UCITS ETF USD Unhedged Acc (WTEF ETF), med ISIN IE000KF370H3, försöker spåra WisdomTree US Efficient Core UCITS-index. WisdomTree US Efficient Core UCITS-index spårar utvecklingen av en 90 % exponering mot stora amerikanska aktier och en 60 % exponering mot US Treasury Bond Futures med avsikten att leverera en hävstångsposition till en traditionell 60/40-portfölj. De värdepapper som ingår är filtrerade enligt ESG-kriterier (miljö, social och bolagsstyrning).
ETFens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,20 % p.a. WisdomTree US Efficient Core UCITS ETF USD Unhedged Acc är den enda ETF som följer WisdomTree US Efficient Core UCITS-index. Denna ETF replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom samplingsteknik (köper ett urval av de mest relevanta indexbeståndsdelarna). Utdelningarna i den börshandlade fonden ackumuleras och återinvesteras.
WisdomTree US Efficient Core UCITS ETF USD Unhedged Acc är en mycket liten ETF med 1 miljon euro tillgångar under förvaltning. ETFen lanserades den 10 oktober 2023 och har sin hemvist i Irland.
WisdomTree US Efficient Core UCITS ETF (“Fonden”) strävar efter att spåra pris- och avkastningsutvecklingen, före avgifter och utgifter, för WisdomTree US Efficient Core UCITS Index (“Indexet”). Indexet syftar till att leverera en 90 % exponering mot stora amerikanska aktier och 60 % mot amerikanska statsobligationsterminer för att förbättra den riskjusterade avkastningen för en traditionell 60/40-portfölj.
Varför investera?
Öka den riskjusterade avkastningen för en amerikansk aktieinvestering genom att ge en 90 % exponering mot aktier samtidigt som Sharpe-kvoten förbättras tack vare en ränteöverlagring
Förbättra kapitaleffektiviteten vid tillgångsallokering vilket möjliggör ökad exponering mot icke-kärninvesteringar/diversifierande investeringar
Låg avgift, core equity-lösning som kan komplettera andra aktiva och passiva strategier
ETFen är fysiskt uppbackad och UCITS-kompatibel
Potentiella risker
Även om indexet skapades för att få ökad exponering mot amerikanska aktier med extra diversifiering av obligationsterminer för att potentiellt minska volatiliteten, finns det ingen garanti för att detta mål kommer att uppnås
En investering i aktier kan uppleva hög volatilitet och bör betraktas som en långsiktig investering
Denna ETF innehåller hävstångselement som kan leda till avsevärt förstorade förluster i jämförelse med investeringar som inte innehåller hävstångseffekter
Investeringsrisken är koncentrerad till U.S.A.
Handla WTEF ETF
WisdomTree US Efficient Core UCITS ETF USD Unhedged Acc (WTEF ETF) handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Borsa Italiana, Deutsche Boerse Xetra och London Stock Exchange. Av den anledningen förekommer olika kortnamn på samma börshandlade fond.
Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRO, Nordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.
Börsnoteringar
• Cryptoassets pull back after a strong rally as short-term BTC investors are taking profits
• Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Indicator” has declined significantly and currently signals neutral sentiment
• Meanwhile, large investors continue to accumulate bitcoins as Coinbase BTC on-exchange balances just hit a 9-year low
Chart of the Week
Performance
Last week, cryptoassets pulled back after a strong rallye to new all-time highs. The major catalyst for this latest move appears to be related to short-term investors and smaller wallet cohorts taking profits already. The downside move was also exacerbated by an increase in long futures liquidations as well as a deceleration in fund inflows more recently.
However, overall exchange balances imply that the demand overhang for bitcoins is still very much present and that larger investors continue to accumulate bitcoins at a very large scale. Amongst others, this is visible in Coinbase on-exchange balances that have just touched a fresh 9-year low (Chart-of-the-Week).
Thus, the most recent on-chain data suggest that there is currently a renewed redistribution of bitcoins from smaller to larger wallet cohorts taking place.
All in all, Bitcoin was more or less flat compared to last week. However, there was a significant underperformance of Ethereum vis-à-vis Bitcoin that was most likely related to an open letter of two US senators to SEC chairman Gary Gensler who oppose additional crypto spot ETF approvals by the SEC.
Moreover, the influential Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has also reduced his personal probability of an earlier Ethereum ETF approval in May 2024 to around 35% due to less activity between issuers and the SEC relative to the activity in the run-up to the Bitcoin spot ETF approval. However, he also thinks that an Ethereum spot ETF will ultimately be approved at some later point in the future. The underperformance was also accompanied by accelerating net outflows from global Ethereum-based ETPs.
This comes at a time when Ethereum has undergone the so-called Dencun upgrade which amongst others includes the EIP-4844 that promises to increase scalability and reduce fees on Layer 2s. Some major Layer 2s like Base and Arbitrum have already implemented the upgrade and fee reductions are so far very significant.
This will most likely put Ethereum and ETH Layer 2s in a better position to compete with low-cost and highly scalable chains like Solana.
In general, among the top 10 crypto assets, Solana, Avalanche, and Toncoin were the relative outperformers.
Nonetheless, overall altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin was low compared to the week prior, with only 30% of our tracked altcoins managing to outperform Bitcoin on a weekly basis. This was most likely due to a general decline in risk appetite due to the most recent pull-back in Bitcoin.
Sentiment
Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” has declined significantly and currently signals neutral sentiment.
At the moment, 8 out of 15 indicators are above their short-term trend.
There were significant reversals to the downside in BTC perpetual futures funding rate and the short-term holder spent output profit ratio (STH-SOPR).
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index still remains in ”Extreme Greed” territory as of this morning.
Besides, our own measure of Cross Asset Risk Appetite (CARA) has increased again throughout the week which signals ongoing bullish sentiment in traditional financial markets. This index is currently at the highest reading since July 2023.
Performance dispersion among cryptoassets has declined further due to the most recent correction. However, overall performance dispersion still remains relatively high.
In general, high performance dispersion among cryptoassets implies that correlations among cryptoassets are low, which means that cryptoassets are trading more on coin-specific factors and that cryptoassets are increasingly decoupling from the performance of Bitcoin.
At the same time, altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin was relatively unchanged compared to the week prior with only 30% of our tracked altcoins that have outperformed Bitcoin on a weekly basis. However, there was a significant underperformance of Ethereum vis-à-vis Bitcoin last week.
In general, decreasing altcoin outperformance tends to be a sign of declining risk appetite within cryptoasset markets.
Fund Flows
Overall, we saw another week of record net fund inflows in the amount of +2,862.7 mn USD (week ending Friday) based on Bloomberg data across all types of cryptoassets.
Global Bitcoin ETPs continued to see significant net inflows of +2,856.2 mn USD of which +2,565.7 mn (net) were related to US spot Bitcoin ETFs alone. The ETC Group Physical Bitcoin ETP (BTCE) saw net outflows equivalent to -13.3 mn USD last week.
The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) experienced a significant increase in net outflows of approximately -1246.1 mn USD last week. However, this was also more than offset by net inflows into other US spot Bitcoin ETFs which managed to attract +3,812 bn USD (ex GBTC).
Last week on Tuesday (12/03/2024), US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw the highest daily net inflow since trading launch of above 1 bn USD on a single day. However, since then, we have seen a gradual deceleration in net inflows overall and also a reacceleration in net outflows from GBTC which probably also contributed to the most recent downside move. This was also evident in negative NAV discounts of those ETFs towards the end of last week.
Apart from Bitcoin, we saw comparatively small flows into other cryptoassets last week again.
Global Ethereum ETPs even saw significant net outflows last week of around -56.6 mn USD which represents an acceleration of outflows compared to the week prior. Meanwhile, the ETC Group Physical Ethereum ETP (ZETH) had -0.7 mn USD while the ETC Group Ethereum Staking ETP (ET32) was able to attract almost +20.0 bn USD in net inflows last week.
Besides, Altcoin ETPs ex Ethereum managed to attract inflows of around +24.7 mn USD last week.
Thematic & basket crypto ETPs also experienced net inflows of +38.4 mn USD, based on our calculations. The ETC Group MSCI Digital Assets Select 20 ETP (DA20) saw neither in- nor outflows last week (+/- 0.0 mn USD).
Besides, the beta of global crypto hedge funds to Bitcoin over the last 20 trading remained at around 1.00 which implies that global crypto hedge funds have currently a neutral market exposure.
On-Chain Data
The major catalyst for this latest move appears to be related to short-term investors and smaller wallet cohorts taking profits already. Amongst others, this was very visible in the short-term holder spent output profit ratio (STH SOPR) that spiked to the highest reading since May 2019 on Wednesday last week. So, there was a very significant degree of short-term profit-taking.
However, overall exchange balances imply that the demand overhang for bitcoins is still very much present and that larger investors continue to accumulate bitcoins at a very large scale. Amongst others, this is visible in Coinbase on-exchange balances that have just touched a fresh 9-year low (Chart-of-the-Week).
In general, we saw record net outflows from exchanges last week. Both Coinbase and Bitfinex, which is known to be an exchange for larger investors, saw their highest net outflows of 2024 last week which implies a continued high buying interest for bitcoin.
The highest outflows just happened yesterday (Sunday) which implies that larger investors have accumulated into the most recent price correction.
Meanwhile, smaller wallet cohorts have continued to distribute their bitcoins into the most recent rallye. This is particularly visible in net exchange flows by wallet cohort. While large wallet cohorts in excess of 1 mn USD have seen net exchange outflows of -50.4k BTC over the past 7 days, smaller wallet cohorts have sent around +12.7k BTC to exchanges during the same time period.
This observation is corroborated by the fact that Bitcoin whales have taken around -2,878 BTC off exchanges over the past 7 days. Whales are defined as unique entities holding at least 1k coins. The absolute number of whales also continues to grow.
Overall, we have seen the highest weekly net exchange outflows in 2024 last week with around -37.6k BTC net outflows over the past 7 days.
Thus, the most recent on-chain data suggest that there is currently a renewed redistribution of bitcoins from smaller to larger wallet cohorts taking place.
The fact that long-term holders have increasingly been distributing bitcoins can be reconciled with the fact that many long-term holders are actually part of smaller wallet cohorts.
Futures, Options & Perpetuals
The most recent downside move from all-time highs was exacerbated by an increase in long futures liquidations as well. Long futures liquidations spiked above 100 mn USD on Friday last week according to data provided by Glassnode.
Nonetheless, both futures and perpetual open interest managed to increase over the past week. Especially CME saw a significant increase in futures open interest despite the most recent rout which implies that CME futures traders, which is dominated by institutional investors, have continued to increase their exposure to Bitcoin.
The futures basis rate has also remained elevated throughout the past correction at around 24.2% p.a.
In the context of the most recent correction, it is worth noting that the weighted Bitcoin futures perpetual funding rate across multiple derivatives exchanges has not turned negative during the most recent correction. However, funding rates have certainly declined to more moderate levels that do not imply excessive risk-taking to the upside anymore.
BTC options’ open interest has also increased last week. The Put-call open interest continued to decline compared to last week and is now at around 0.56 which does not signal a significant appetite for downside protection. Put-call volume ratios also remained relatively low despite the most recent correction.
However, the 25-delta BTC 1-month option skew increased last week signalling higher bids for puts relative to call options.
However, BTC option implied volatilities have come off the highs recorded on Monday last week. Implied volatilities of 1-month ATM Bitcoin options are currently at around 73.6% p.a.
Bottom Line
• Cryptoassets pull back after a strong rallye as short-term BTC investors are taking profits
• Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Indicator” has declined significantly and currently signals neutral sentiment
• Meanwhile, large investors continue to accumulate bitcoins as Coinbase BTC on-exchange balances just hit a 9-year low
Disclaimer
Important Information
The information provided in this material is for informative purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation or solicitation to conclude a transaction. This document (which may be in the form of a blogpost, research article, marketing brochure, press release, social media post, blog post, broadcast communication or similar instrument – we refer to this category of communications generally as a “document” for purposes of this disclaimer) is issued by ETC Issuance GmbH (the “issuer”), a limited company incorporated under the laws of Germany, having its corporate domicile in Germany. This document has been prepared in accordance with applicable laws and regulations (including those relating to financial promotions). If you are considering investing in any securities issued by ETC Group, including any securities described in this document, you should check with your broker or bank that securities issued by ETC Group are available in your jurisdiction and suitable for your investment profile.
Exchange-traded commodities/cryptocurrencies, or ETPs, are a highly volatile asset and performance is unpredictable. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The market price of ETPs will vary and they do not offer a fixed income. The value of any investment in ETPs may be affected by exchange rate and underlying price movements. This document may contain forward-looking statements including statements regarding ETC Group’s belief or current expectations with regards to the performance of certain asset classes. Forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and there can be no assurance that such statements will be accurate and actual results could differ materially. Therefore, you must not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. This document does not constitute investment advice nor an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy any product or make any investment. An investment in an ETC that is linked to cryptocurrency, such as those offered by ETC Group, is dependent on the performance of the underlying cryptocurrency, less costs, but it is not expected to match that performance precisely. ETPs involve numerous risks including, among others, general market risks relating to underlying adverse price movements and currency, liquidity, operational, legal, and regulatory risks.
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