• The SEC has just approved the spot Ethereum ETFs in the US – we expect approximately 1.65 bn USD potential net inflows into US Ethereum ETFs 3 months after trading launch
• If we assumed the historical ”performance multiplier” of 6.15 to Ethereum flows to be true, then a ~15% increase in global Ethereum ETFAuM would be associated with ~92% performance
• The approval marks a significant shift in sentiment within the SEC and among US regulators in general but US investors still received inferior investment vehicles compared to European vehicles
6.5 years
The SEC has just approved spot Ethereum ETFs for trading in the US. Although the exact date of trading launch is unknown and could take a few months, this approval marks a significant shift in sentiment within the SEC and US regulators in general.
The Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) was launched on 14 December 2017. It was the first investment vehicle that allowed professional investors to gain exposure to the second largest cryptoasset – Ethereum.
Nearly 6.5 years later, US investors finally have a more efficient investment vehicle to participate in Ethereum’s performance.
US ETF issuers made last-minute adjustments to their 19b-4 filings to meet the final deadline for the SEC’s decision on VanEck’s spot Ethereum ETF application, which was due on 23 May.
Bloomberg ETF analysts had previously commented that approval could come as early as Wednesday this week, beating consensus expectations for a later approval date. Other applicants included the same companies that applied for a spot bitcoin ETF previously, such as iShares and Fidelity.
The sudden increase in approval odds caught many by surprise, as Bloomberg ETF analysts unexpectedly raised their approval odds from 25% to 75% after the SEC asked exchanges to expedite their 19b-4 filings. Meanwhile, the odds of approval by the end of May on popular betting sites also jumped to over 50%, up from 10% just a few days earlier.
This unexpected rise in approval odds also surprised Ethereum futures short sellers, causing short liquidations in Ethereum futures contracts to surge to their highest level since March.
This caused the price of Ethereum to jump more than 10% in a matter of hours, reversing much of its underperformance against bitcoin this year.
So, the market had already started to anticipate a potential approval.
But what’s next?
How many fund flows should we expect?
Many market observers have tried to guide down expectations for an Ethereum ETF trading launch.
The reason is that the Ethereum spot ETF approval is coming after a bonanza in fund flows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs which is why Bloomberg ETF analysts expect only around 10%-15% of Bitcoin ETF flows to flow into Ethereum ETFs.
At the time of writing, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have already seen cumulative net fund inflows in the amount of +13.2 bn USD since trading launch on the 11th of January 2024.
12.5% of that amount would imply approximately 1.65 bn USD potential net inflows into US Ethereum ETFs.
This amount would currently be equivalent to ~15% of current global Ethereum ETP assets-under-management (AuM) or around 0.7% of Ethereum’s realized cap, i.e. the amount invested on-chain.
What could be the price effect of this approval?
Nonetheless, this amount of capital could potentially still have a very significant impact on Ethereum’s performance going forward.
The reason is that Ethereum’s performance has shown a significantly higher sensitivity to global ETP flows than Bitcoin in the past.
While Bitcoin’s performance sensitivity to global ETP flows was around ~1.0, Ethereum’s performance has shown an average sensitivity of around 6.15 to global ETP flows in the past.
In other words, an increase of global ETH ETPAuM by 1% per week was associated with an average ETH/USD performance of 6.15% per week.
Now, if we assumed the abovementioned ”multiplier” of 6.15 to be true, then a ~15% increase in global Ethereum ETFAuM would be associated with ~92% performance!
That being said, the sensitivity of Ethereum’s performance to weekly ETP flows can vary significantly over time and has been around ~10.5 more recently.
As a caveat, keep in mind that correlation does not imply causation and that higher net inflows could possibly not cause increases in price.
More specifically, we estimate that global Ethereum ETP flows could only explain around 19.6% in the variation of Ethereum over the past 6 months. So, other factors such as macro or coin-specific factors have played a larger role.
What’s special about these Ethereum ETFs?
The approval marks a significant shift in sentiment within the SEC and US regulators more general. The recent passing of the “crypto bill” in the US senate has demonstrated that there is bipartisan consensus on the importance of cryptoassets for the United States.
The fact that the Trump campaign has recently started accepting crypto donations for campaign finance speaks volumes in this regard as Trump had personally shown a rather anti-crypto stance in the past.
Thus, viewed more broadly within the context of recent domestic political developments in the US, this approval could be evidence of a more mainstream acceptance of cryptoassets as a legitimate asset class.
However, US investors still receive a suboptimal investment vehicle for Ethereum: The creation-redemption mechanism is still not done in kind and staking has not been allowed within the filings. Thus, US investors won’t be able to fully capture Ethereum’s total return profile via staking returns that currently amount to around 3.2% p.a.
European investors are once again better served with products that allow investors to participate in these total returns such as the ETC Group Ethereum Staking ETP.
Bottom Line
• The SEC has just approved the spot Ethereum ETFs in the US – we expect approximately 1.65 bn USD potential net inflows into US Ethereum ETFs 3 months after trading launch
• If we assumed the historical ”performance multiplier” of 6.15 to Ethereum flows to be true, then a ~15% increase in global Ethereum ETFAuM would be associated with ~92% performance
• The approval marks a significant shift in sentiment within the SEC and among US regulators in general but US investors still received inferior investment vehicles compared to European vehicles
This is not investment advice. Capital at risk. Read the full disclaimer
Stablecoins are digital currencies tied to assets like the U.S. dollar, offering the price stability needed for payments. They maintain their peg by being backed 1:1 by their underlying fiat currency, with issuers holding equivalent amounts in cash and cash equivalents, making stablecoins a digital representation of those reserves. Their market has doubled to over $235 billion, with daily usage nearly doubling in two years.
Why are stablecoins making headlines now?
Due to their clear product-market fit and growing mainstream adoption, stablecoins have become a top priority for regulation, with both industry leaders and policymakers calling for swift action.
On April 4, the Securities and Exchange Commission’s Division of Corporation Finance finally clarified that stablecoins are not securities if backed one-for-one by USD or similar assets and used for payments or value storage. These “Covered Stablecoins” are not marketed as investments, lack profit incentives, and include protections like reserves, making securities law registration unnecessary for issuance or redemption.
The GENIUS Act, introduced in February and advanced by the U.S. Senate Banking Committee in March, marks a major step toward creating a clear legal framework for stablecoin issuance and oversight. This clarity is driving momentum as Fidelity is set to launch its own stablecoin, and Bank of America is preparing to follow it once legislation is finalized.
Globally, the European Union’s Markets in Crypto Assets (MiCA) framework has already come into effect, reinforcing a broader shift toward formal integration of stablecoins into traditional finance. These developments reflect a growing consensus that stablecoins are emerging as essential infrastructure for global payments, treasury management, and digital asset adoption.
What are the benefits of stablecoins?
Stablecoins are digital currencies designed for fast, low-cost, and stable transactions. Since their launch in 2014, they’ve become a go-to tool for online payments, especially cross-border transfers. As they’re pegged to stable assets like the U.S. dollar or euro, they avoid the wild price swings seen in other cryptocurrencies.
They’re accessible to anyone with internet, making them especially valuable in regions with high inflation or limited banking access, like Argentina or Turkey.
With some built on public blockchains, stablecoins offer transparency, letting users track transfers and supply in real time. For institutions, they also simplify treasury management by acting as efficient digital cash that can be deployed instantly.
Who are the major players in the stablecoin race?
Tether (USDT) and Circle (USDC), the two largest stablecoin issuers, collectively hold over $204 billion in U.S. Treasuries, making them the 14th largest holders globally. Their combined treasury holdings surpass those of entire nations, including Norway and Brazil.
USDT leads with $144 billion in circulation; USDC, backed by Coinbase and known for compliance, has become a trusted digital dollar across global finance.
Why stablecoins matter: A revenue engine for blockchains
Stablecoins generate steady revenue for blockchains like Ethereum and Solana by driving transaction fees with each transfer. With trillions in annual volume, they help sustain network activity beyond speculation.
On Ethereum, for example, USDT and USDC transactions are major contributors to daily gas fees. Year to date, Tether ranks #3 and USDC ranks #5 in terms of total gas consumed. Tether and Circle also dominate daily transaction activity on Ethereum, averaging approximately 12 million and 6 million transactions per day, respectively, making them the top two entities on the network by daily transaction count.
Meanwhile, on Solana, stablecoin activity has surged, helping sustain validator rewards and strengthen protocol economics. In addition to the mainstream utility, stablecoins represent reliable, protocol-level cash flow, making them crypto’s killer use case.
Research Newsletter
Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com
Disclaimer
The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.
Invesco BulletShares 2029 EUR Corporate Bond UCITSETF EUR Dis (BE29 ETF) med ISIN IE000ZC4C5Q1, försöker följa Bloomberg 2029 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened-index. Bloomberg 2029 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened Index spårar företagsobligationer denominerade i EUR. Indexet speglar inte ett konstant löptidsintervall (som är fallet med de flesta andra obligationsindex). Istället ingår endast obligationer som förfaller under det angivna året (här: 2029) i indexet. Indexet består av ESG (environmental, social and governance) screenade företagsobligationer. Betyg: Investment Grade. Löptid: december 2029 (Denna ETF kommer att stängas efteråt).
Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,10 % p.a. Invesco BulletShares 2029 EUR Corporate Bond UCITSETF EUR Dis är den billigaste ETF som följer Bloomberg 2029 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened index. ETFen replikerar resultatet för det underliggande indexet genom samplingsteknik (köper ett urval av de mest relevanta indexbeståndsdelarna). Ränteintäkterna (kuponger) i ETFen delas ut till investerarna (kvartalsvis).
Invesco BulletShares 2029 EUR Corporate Bond UCITSETF EUR Dis är en mycket liten ETF med 1 miljon euro tillgångar under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 18 juni 2024 och har sin hemvist i Irland.
Produktbeskrivning
Invesco BulletShares 2029 EUR Corporate Bond UCITSETFDistsyftar till att tillhandahålla den totala avkastningen för Bloomberg 2029 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened Index (”Referensindexet”), minus avgifternas inverkan. Fonden har en fast löptid och kommer att upphöra på Förfallodagen. Fonden delar ut intäkter på kvartalsbasis.
Referensindexet är utformat för att återspegla resultatet för EUR-denominerade, investeringsklassade, fast ränta, skattepliktiga skuldebrev emitterade av företagsemittenter. För att vara kvalificerade för inkludering måste företagsvärdepapper ha minst 300 miljoner euro i nominellt utestående belopp och en effektiv löptid på eller mellan 1 januari 2029 och 31 december 2029.
Värdepapper är uteslutna om emittenter: 1) är inblandade i kontroversiella vapen, handeldvapen, militära kontrakt, oljesand, termiskt kol eller tobak; 2) inte har en kontroversnivå enligt definitionen av Sustainalytics eller har en Sustainalytics-kontroversnivå högre än 4; 3) anses inte följa principerna i FN:s Global Compact; eller 4) kommer från tillväxtmarknader.
Portföljförvaltarna strävar efter att uppnå fondens mål genom att tillämpa en urvalsstrategi, som inkluderar användning av kvantitativ analys, för att välja en andel av värdepapperen från referensindexet som representerar hela indexets egenskaper, med hjälp av faktorer som index- vägd genomsnittlig varaktighet, industrisektorer, landvikter och kreditkvalitet. När en företagsobligation som innehas av fonden når förfallodag kommer kontanterna som fonden tar emot att användas för att investera i kortfristiga EUR-denominerade skulder.
ETFen förvaltas passivt.
En investering i denna fond är ett förvärv av andelar i en passivt förvaltad indexföljande fond snarare än i de underliggande tillgångarna som ägs av fonden.
”Förfallodag”: den andra onsdagen i december 2029 eller annat datum som bestäms av styrelseledamöterna och meddelas aktieägarna.
Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel Nordnet, SAVR, DEGIRO och Avanza.
Under hypervolatila marknader omvärderar investerare vanligtvis vad de äger. De ser också över vilka investeringar som är bäst lämpade för att navigera i svåra tider. Guld är alltid ett självklart val, och under den nuvarande turbulensen har det inte gjort dem besvikna. Faktum är att gammaldags guld-ETF, börshandlade fonder som investerar i guld slår till och med bitcoinfonder med en enorm marginal.
Marknadsreferenser som SPDR S&P 500 ETF såg stora dippar från 1 januari till 15 april 2025 SPDR-fonden föll med 7,99 procent under den tiden medan iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF sjönk med 10 procent. Samtidigt steg SPDR Gold Shares-fonden, världens största ETF med fysiskt guld som backas upp, med nästan 23 procent. Fonden har tillgångar på över 98 miljarder dollar.
Medan S&P 500 belönade investerare rikligt under 2023 och 2024, ”sedan befrielsedagen, den 2 april i år, har spelplanerna för 2025 ändrats lite”, säger John Kinnane, chef för nyckelkunder på Sprott Asset Management.
Mitt i de krympande marknaderna har det skett en översvämning av ETFer som fysiskt stöds av guld och silver. I april ökade ETFer för ädelmetaller med 6,6 miljarder dollar i nya tillgångar och vann de största nettoinflödena för månaden i råvarukategorin.
Även ETFer för gruvaktier har klarat sig bra. VanEck Gold Miners ETF, till exempel, avkastade över 49 procent för året fram till den 15 april.
Det finns också specialiserade strategier. USCF Gold Strategy Plus Income Fund erbjuder en unik inkomsttwist på guld genom att sälja täckta köpoptioner för att generera intäkter. Den har en 30-dagars SEC-avkastning på 3,36 procent och har hittills i år ökat med 20,72 procent.
”En av guldets bestående egenskaper är att det faktiskt är en okorrelerad tillgång. Investerare av alla slag letar efter låg korrelation så att de i tider av volatilitet – som vi befinner oss i just nu – får en jämnare avkastning för sin totala portfölj”, säger Kinnane.
I februari lanserade Sprott Sprott Active Gold & Silver Miners ETF. Den inkluderar aktier i guld- och silvergruvor i en ETF-ticker med en aktivt förvaltad strategi.
Medan guldlänkade fonder har blomstrat har varken bitcoin eller resten av kryptovalutamarknaden gett investerarna något särskilt skydd.
Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund, ett mått på 10 olika kryptovalutor, inklusive bitcoin, sjönk med 21,28 procent från 1 januari till 15 april. Mindre kryptovalutor, särskilt meme-mynt och tokens, har presterat usla.
Guldets överprestationer har hjälpts av den kraftigt ökande efterfrågan från investerare, men också av köp från centralbanker. 2024 var tredje året i rad som de lade till mer än 1 005 ton till sina globala guldreserver.
”Respondenterna var tydliga med att centralbanksgemenskapen skulle fortsätta att öka sina allokeringar till guld inom kort”, stod det i en rapport om reserver från World Gold Council från 2024.