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Crypto Market Compass 3. June 2024

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Crypto Market Compass 3. June 2024 Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Indicator” has increased slightly and still signals neutral levels in sentiment

• Cryptoassets underperformed due to a general decline in risk appetite

• Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Indicator” has increased slightly and still signals neutral levels in sentiment

• Bitcoin whales’ transfers from exchanges reach the highest amount since almost 2 years in a sign of increasing institutional appetite for cryptoassets
Chart of the Week

Performance

Last week, cryptoassets underperformed traditional assets like equities due to a general decline in cross-asset risk appetite.

Weekly US spot Bitcoin ETF net inflows were relatively positive with around 171 mn USD but still significantly lower than what we had seen until mid-March. Meanwhile, global Ethereum ETP flows have already picked up following the recent US spot Ethereum ETF approval. It seems as if some investors are already positioning in anticipation of higher net inflows going forward.

Apart from this, we saw very significant whale withdrawals of bitcoins from exchanges that took place on Kraken (Chart-of-the-Week). Whales are defined as network entities that control at least 1,000 BTC. This very significant shift in net exchange transfers by whales happened after whales had just recently sent most bitcoins to exchanges year-to-date.

However, the latest withdrawals represent the highest withdrawals in almost 2 years. Withdrawals of this size are usually very positive for performance as they exacerbate supply illiquidity on exchanges which tends to support prices.

In general, among the top 10 crypto assets, Toncoin, Shiba Inu and BNB were the relative outperformers.

However, overall altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin has declined again compared to the prior week, with only around 45% of our tracked altcoins managing to outperform Bitcoin on a weekly basis.

Sentiment

Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” has increased marginally last week is currently still signalling neutral sentiment.

At the moment, only 5 out of 15 indicators are above their short-term trend.
Last week, there were significant reversals to the downside in the BTC perpetual funding rate and our measure of Cross Asset Risk Appetite (CARA).

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index signals ”Greed” as of this morning.

Performance dispersion among cryptoassets has reversed to the downside again
and remains very low. Most altcoins are still trading in line with Bitcoin.

Altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin has declined compared to the week prior, with only around 45% of our tracked altcoins outperforming Bitcoin on a weekly basis. The decline in altcoin outperformance also signals a renewed underperformance of Ethereum vis-à-vis Bitcoin again.

In general, increasing (decreasing) altcoin outperformance tends to be a sign of increasing (decreasing) risk appetite within cryptoasset markets.

Meanwhile, sentiment in traditional financial markets came off its highs recently, judging by our own measure of Cross Asset Risk Appetite (CARA).

Fund Flows

Last week, we saw another week of positive net inflows into global crypto ETPs of around +183.6 mn USD but significantly lower than the +1bn USD net inflows the week prior.

Global Bitcoin ETPs saw net inflows of +109.7 mn USD last week of which +170.9 mn USD (net) were related to US spot Bitcoin ETFs alone.

Flows into Hong Kong spot Bitcoin ETFs saw minor net outflows of around -5.8 mn USD, according to data provided by Bloomberg.

The ETC Group Physical Bitcoin ETP (BTCE) also saw minor net outflows equivalent to -5.9 mn USD while the ETC Group Core Bitcoin ETP (BTC1) saw net inflows of +1.5 mn USD last week.

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) continued to see negative net flows with approximately -260.6 mn USD last week while other major US spot Bitcoin ETFs
continued to attract more capital.

iShares’ IBIT attracted another +297.7 mn USD in a single week and has now become the biggest Bitcoin ETF in the world.

Global Ethereum ETPs saw a reversal in ETP flows last week, with net inflows of around +73.5 mn USD.

Hong Kong spot Ethereum ETFs that also saw net inflows last week of around +38.2 mn USD, according to data provided by Bloomberg.

Furthermore, the ETC Group Physical Ethereum ETP (ZETH) saw another week of net inflows of +3.3 mn USD last week. The ETC Group Ethereum Staking ETP (ET32) saw neither in- nor outflows last week (+/- 0 mn USD).

Besides, Altcoin ETPs ex Ethereum also experienced some net inflows of around +13.1 mn USD last week.

Besides, Thematic & basket crypto ETPs continued to see minor net outflows of -12.7 mn USD, based on our calculations. In contrast, the ETC Group MSCI Digital Assets Select 20 ETP (DA20) saw neither in- nor outflows last week (+/- 0 mn USD).

Meanwhile, the beta of global crypto hedge funds to Bitcoin over the last 20 trading days continued to decrease to around 0.87. This implies that global crypto hedge funds are still reducing their market exposure and have currently a slight underweight exposure to Bitcoin.

On-Chain Data

Probably the most significant on-chain development last week was the net whale exchange transfers. Bitcoin whales transferred around -49,333 BTC over the past 7 days (Chart-of-the-Week).

Most of these net transfers are attributable to two whale transfers that happened on Kraken last week:

Around ~20k BTC were withdrawn from Kraken at around 4 pm UTC on the 30th of May and another ~15k BTC were withdrawn at around 3 pm UTC on the 31st of May. It is still unclear whether these large transfers were made by an investor, non-financial corporate or even sovereign entity.

In any case, these whale transfers mark a significant shift in net transfers overall as whales had just sent the highest amount of bitcoins to exchanges year-to-date before these outsized withdrawals.

The abovementioned withdrawals also sent BTC on-exchange balances to a fresh 6-year low according to data provided by Glassnode. Only 11.58% of total available BTC supply is currently on exchanges.

The amount of illiquid BTC supply based on a definition by Glassnode has hit an all-time high. This is bound to be a significant tailwind for Bitcoin and Cryptoassets.

Another significant on-chain development last week were internal transfers by Mt. Gox trustee that temporarily put pressure on prices as the market speculated that a larger distribution by this entity was imminent. Although most experts tagged these outflows as genuine outflows at first, they appear to be internal transfers within cold wallets.

At the time of writing, around 141,686 BTC remain in wallets controlled by the Mt. Gox trustee according to data provided by Glassnode. This is certainly a large amount and any distribution of this size would most-likely be associated with significant temporary downside.

Futures, Options & Perpetuals

Last week, BTC futures open interest decreased while and BTC perpetual open interest increased in BTC-terms. The decrease in BTC futures open interest was mostly attributable to a larger decline in CME futures open interest.

That being said, both long and short futures liquidations remained relatively low last week.

The Bitcoin futures basis mostly went sideways last week. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin futures annualized basis rate stands at around 13.7% p.a. However, net short positions in Bitcoin futures contracts on CME reached their highest level on record indicating that traders are increasingly making use of the basis.

Meanwhile, perpetual funding rates continued to stay relatively high signalling decent demand for long perpetual contracts.

Bitcoin options’ open interest declined significantly due to outsized option expires at the end of May. Put-Call open interest ratios also declined indicating that expired puts were mostly not rolled over. Relative put-call volume ratios only spiked temporarily on Tuesday last week.

However, the 25-delta BTC 1-month option skew increased slightly throughout the week, implying an increased demand for puts relative to calls.
BTC option implied volatilities continued to decrease last week. Implied volatilities of 1-month ATM Bitcoin options are currently at around 49.3% p.a.
Bottom Line

• Cryptoassets underperformed due to a general decline in risk appetite

• Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Indicator” has increased slightly and still signals neutral levels in sentiment

• Bitcoin whales’ transfers from exchanges reach the highest amount since almost 2 years in a sign of increasing institutional appetite for cryptoassets

To read our Crypto Market Compass in full, please click the button below:

This is not investment advice. Capital at risk. Read the full disclaimer

© ETC Group 2019-2024 | All rights reserved

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Deutsche Börse välkomnar Börse Stuttgart Commodities som ny emittent

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Sedan i fredag har de första börshandlade råvarorna från Börse Stuttgart Commodities kunnat handlas på Xetra och Börse Frankfurt.

Sedan i fredag har de första börshandlade råvarorna från Börse Stuttgart Commodities kunnat handlas på Xetra och Börse Frankfurt.

EUWAX Gold Core ETC gör det möjligt för investerare att delta i guldprisets utveckling, och erbjuder möjligheten att ta emot fysiskt guld eller en utbetalning i amerikanska dollar. Det är ett börshandlat skuldebrev som backas upp av fysiskt deponerat guld.

EUWAX Gold Traceable ETC gör det möjligt för investerare att delta i guldprisets utveckling. Den börshandlade obligationen backas upp av fysiskt deponerat guld. Guldgruvorna från vilka guldet kommer ut väljs ut av Boerse Stuttgart Commodities GmbH enligt fastställda kriterier. Detta säkerställer guldets spårbarhet, såväl som dess certifierade koldioxidavtryck.

Investerare kan delta i ädelmetallguldets utveckling genom ETCerna utan att behöva äga fysiskt guld.

NamnISIN/
Ticker
AvgiftUtdelnings-
policy
EUWAX Gold Core ETCDE000EWG4CR2
EWGC (EUR)
0,25%Ackumulerande
EUWAX Gold Traceable ETCDE000EWG4TR6
EWGT (EUR)
0,29%Ackumulerande

Produktutbudet inom Deutsche Börses ETF- och ETP-segment omfattar för närvarande totalt 2 435 ETFer, 202 ETCer och 258 ETNer. Med detta urval och en genomsnittlig månatlig handelsvolym på cirka 23 miljarder euro är Xetra den ledande handelsplatsen för ETFer och ETPer i Europa.

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EXSA ETF köper de 600 största aktierna i Europa

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iShares STOXX Europe 600 UCITS ETF (DE)( EXSA ETF) med ISIN DE0002635307, försöker följa STOXX® Europe 600-indexet. STOXX® Europe 600-indexet följer de 600 största europeiska företagen.

iShares STOXX Europe 600 UCITS ETF (DE) (EXSA ETF) med ISIN DE0002635307, försöker följa STOXX® Europe 600-indexet. STOXX® Europe 600-indexet följer de 600 största europeiska företagen.

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,20 % p.a. ETFen replikerar resultatet av det underliggande indexet genom full replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i ETFen delas ut till investerarna (Minst årligen).

iShares STOXX Europe 600 UCITS ETF (DE) är en mycket stor ETF med tillgångar på 6 153 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 13 februari 2004 och har sin hemvist i Tyskland.

Varför EXSA?

Exponering för ett brett utbud av företag från utvecklade länder i Europa

Direktinvesteringar till stora, medelstora och små företag

Regional exponering

Investeringsmål

Fonden strävar efter att följa resultatet för ett index som består av de 600 största företagen från europeiska utvecklade länder.

Handla EXSA ETF

iShares STOXX Europe 600 UCITS ETF (DE)( EXSA ETF)

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
gettexEUREXSA
Stuttgart Stock ExchangeEUREXSA
Bolsa Mexicana de ValoresMXNEXSAN
Borsa ItalianaEUREXSA
SIX Swiss ExchangeEURSXPIEX
XETRAEUREXSA

Största innehav

KortnamnNamnSektorVikt (%)ISINValuta
NOVO BNOVO NORDISK CLASS BHealth Care3.81DK0062498333DKK
ASMLASML HOLDING NVInformation Technology3.60NL0010273215EUR
NESNNESTLE SAConsumer Staples2.29CH0038863350CHF
AZNASTRAZENECA PLCHealth Care2.01GB0009895292GBP
SHELLSHELL PLCEnergy1.96GB00BP6MXD84EUR
NOVNNOVARTIS AGHealth Care1.87CH0012005267CHF
SAPSAPInformation Technology1.73DE0007164600EUR
ROGROCHE HOLDING PAR AGHealth Care1.62CH0012032048CHF
MCLVMHConsumer Discretionary1.61FR0000121014EUR
TTETOTALENERGIESEnergy1.39FR0000120271EUR

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Tariff Turbulence: April’s Policy Whiplash Shakes Markets

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It’s fair to say that most market participants were left disoriented after April’s economic rollercoaster. The month began with the announcement of a 10% “universal” tariff on April 2—an announcement that proved to be anything but universal. Canada and Mexico were excluded, certain sectors and products were exempt, and over 50 countries were instead hit with additional “reciprocal” tariffs ranging from 11% to 50%.

It’s fair to say that most market participants were left disoriented after April’s economic rollercoaster. The month began with the announcement of a 10% “universal” tariff on April 2—an announcement that proved to be anything but universal. Canada and Mexico were excluded, certain sectors and products were exempt, and over 50 countries were instead hit with additional “reciprocal” tariffs ranging from 11% to 50%.

Just days later, confusion deepened when those same reciprocal tariffs were suspended—except for China, where cumulative tariffs reached an effective rate of 145%. Countries across the world scrambled to craft retaliation measures while financial markets struggled to price in the flurry of conflicting announcements on an hour-by-hour basis.

Gold: From Panic to Safe Haven

Gold and gold stocks were swept up in the turmoil during the first volatile week of April. Margin calls, investor panic, broad selling pressure, and a rush to raise cash pushed gold below the $3,000 mark, hitting a monthly low of $2,983.27 on April 8.

However, gold’s safe haven status was soon reaffirmed, rising to new highs throughout the month and trading intraday as high as $3,500 per ounce on April 22.

While other asset classes also began to recover as the month progressed, gold stood out—rising 5.29% in April.

By comparison, the S&P 500 (1) fell 0.68%, the U.S. dollar declined 4.55%, and the Nasdaq2 eked out a modest (but notable) 0.88% gain. Even U.S. Treasuries experienced early selling pressure, with the 10-year yield briefly spiking to 4.5% on April 11 before settling at 4.2% by month-end. Gold ultimately closed April at $3,288.71 per ounce.

Gold Miners: A Tale of Two Halves

Gold miners, as represented by the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDMNTR)3, performed exceptionally well in the first half of the month, outpacing both the metal and broader asset classes. As equity markets rebounded in the latter half, however, investor enthusiasm for gold cooled, and miners lagged.

The month also highlighted the strong correlation between western investment flows and gold pricing. Inflows into global gold bullion ETFs early in April coincided with gold’s rally, while outflows during the final seven trading days contributed to downward price pressure. Still, gold equities—up 6.94% in March—achieved their goal of outperforming bullion and offered effective protection during April’s turbulence.

A Missed Opportunity for Most Investors

With only about 1% of global assets under management currently allocated to the gold sector, it’s clear that the vast majority of investors have missed out on gold’s exceptional performance this year. When we speak with those who are now starting to pay attention, our conversations typically revolve around two key questions:

• Am I too late?

• How much gold should I own in my portfolio?

On the first point, many investors see gold’s 25% surge this year—on top of a 27% gain in 2024—and assume the rally must be nearing its end. Interestingly, these same investors have been actively participating in equity markets that have risen nearly every year for the past 16 years.

Why Gold Still Has Room to Run

The S&P 500 has posted annual gains nearly every year since the 2008 financial crisis—except for 2015, 2018, and 2022—and is up 53% just since the start of 2022. Yet even after the market turmoil of April and an increasingly uncertain outlook, most investors remain hesitant to reduce their equity exposure or reallocate capital.

Gold, by contrast, has seen far less participation. Investment demand remains well below prior peaks. Given the strength of gold’s recent rally, a short-term pullback is neither unexpected nor concerning. In fact, we believe gold is in the process of forming a new, higher base—likely around $3,000 per ounce.

When investors return to gold in a meaningful way—and we believe the case for doing so is growing—the combined force of renewed investment flows and continued strong central bank buying could drive prices significantly higher. Based on historical correlations between ETF holdings and the gold price, a return to 2020 peak ETF levels could translate to an additional $600 per ounce increase.

In our view, it’s not too late to begin building or adding to a position in gold or gold equities.

If your portfolio currently has no gold exposure, now is an ideal time to start.

In today’s environment, having zero allocation to gold is increasingly difficult to justify.

How Much Gold Should You Own?

On the second point—how much gold exposure should I have?—we believe gold should be treated as a core, long-term component of a well-diversified portfolio. A strategic allocation of around 5% is a reasonable starting point for most investors. We do not recommend trading in and out of this core position.

A more tactical approach to complement a core allocation could involve adjusting the size of the position based on macroeconomic trends, as well as determining the appropriate mix between gold bullion and gold miners.

While initial interest in gold often leads investors to start with bullion, we believe gold equities also deserve consideration. Their risk profile may lead to different allocation choices depending on the investor, but they offer leveraged exposure to the gold price—an opportunity every investor should evaluate.

Finally, we recommend taking a basket approach when investing in gold equities. Consistently picking the top performers year after year is difficult, which makes diversification essential in this sector.

To receive more Gold Investing insights, sign up in our subscription center.

Article written by Imaru Casanova

Important Disclosures

All company, sector, and sub-industry weightings as of April 30, 2025, unless otherwise noted.

Please note that VanEck may offer investment products that invest in the asset class(es) or industries included in this communication.

This is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any of the securities mentioned herein. The information presented does not involve the rendering of personalized investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts and other forward-looking statements, which do not reflect actual results.

Please note that the information herein represents the opinion of the author, but not necessarily those of VanEck, and this opinion may change at any time and from time to time. Non-VanEck proprietary information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. Not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results or investment advice. Historical performance is not indicative of future results. Current data may differ from data quoted. Any graphs shown herein are for illustrative purposes only. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of VanEck.

Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss.

Nothing in this content should be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell shares of any investment in any jurisdiction where the offer or solicitation would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction, nor is it intended as investment, tax, financial, or legal advice. Investors should seek such professional advice for their particular situation and jurisdiction.

1 S&P 500 Index is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities. The index is a float-adjusted, market-cap-weighted index of 500 leading U.S. companies from across all market sectors including information technology, telecommunications services, utilities, energy, materials, industrials, real estate, financials, health care, consumer discretionary, and consumer staples. 2NASDAQ Composite Index is a broad-based market index that includes more than 3700 stocks listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. 3NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDMNTR) is a modified market capitalization-weighted index comprised of publicly traded companies involved primarily in the mining for gold.

Any indices listed are unmanaged indices and include the reinvestment of all dividends, but do not reflect the payment of transaction costs, advisory fees or expenses that are associated with an investment in a Fund. Certain indices may take into account withholding taxes. An index’s performance is not illustrative of a Fund’s performance. Indices are not securities in which investments can be made.

Investments in commodities can be very volatile and direct investment in these markets can be very risky, especially for inexperienced investors.

NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index is a service mark of ICE Data Indices, LLC or its affiliates (“ICE Data”) and has been licensed for use by Van Eck Associates Corporation (“VanEck”). VanEck products are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by ICE Data. ICE Data makes no representations or warranties regarding VanEck products or the ability of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to track general stock market performance.

ICE DATA MAKES NO EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, AND HEREBY EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMS ALL WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE WITH RESPECT TO THE NYSE ARCA GOLD MINERS INDEX OR ANY DATA INCLUDED THEREIN. IN NO EVENT SHALL ICE DATA HAVE ANY LIABILITY FOR ANY SPECIAL, PUNITIVE, INDIRECT, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES (INCLUDING LOST PROFITS), EVEN IF NOTIFIED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES.

The S&P 500® Index is a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and/or its affiliates and has been licensed for use by Van Eck Associates Corporation. Copyright © 2025 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global, Inc., and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Redistribution or reproduction in whole or in part are prohibited without written permission of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. For more information on any of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC’s indices please visit www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/. S&P® is a registered trademark of S&P Global and Dow Jones® is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. Neither S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, their affiliates nor their third party licensors make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the ability of any index to accurately represent the asset class or market sector that it purports to represent and neither S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, their affiliates nor their third party licensors shall have any liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions of any index or the data included therein.

Gold investments are subject to the risks associated with concentrating its assets in the gold industry, which can be significantly affected by international economic, monetary and political developments. Investments in gold may decline in value due to developments specific to the gold industry. Foreign gold security investments involve risks related to adverse political and economic developments unique to a country or a region, currency fluctuations or controls, and the possibility of arbitrary action by foreign governments, or political, economic or social instability. Gold investments are subject to risks associated with investments in U.S. and non-U.S. issuers, commodities and commodity-linked derivatives, commodities and commodity-linked derivatives tax, gold-mining industry, derivatives, emerging market securities, foreign currency transactions, foreign securities, other investment companies, management, market, non-diversification, operational, regulatory, small- and medium-capitalization companies and subsidiary risks.

All investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest. As with any investment strategy, there is no guarantee that investment objectives will be met and investors may lose money. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss in a declining market. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.

© Van Eck Associates Corporation.

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