Commodity & FX Outlook – Commodity Supply Cutbacks in Focus, as Central Banks Dictate FX Moves
Highlights
• Commodity supply is being cut back after 5 years of continuous negative price performance.
• Low oil prices are keeping inflation measures subdued globally.
• The outlook for interest rates and central bank stimulus will continue to be the dominant driver for G10 currency pairs
Commodity supply is being cut back after five years of continuous negative price performance. A number of commodities from copper, platinum, corn and even sugar are likely to be in a supply deficit this year. That will help eat into inventory that has built up over the years. Oil will remain in a supply surplus until at least the middle of next year, but the wheels are turning in the right direction, with upstream capital investment being cut back severely in the wake of the drop in oil price over the past year. We identify several shocks that could move commodity prices. Beyond the macroeconomic risks, that could see interest rate increases postponed (which would be gold price positive), weather risks could shock some commodities. We are currently in the most severe El Niño since 1997. Should history be a guide for the future, we could see corn, cocoa and sugar prices rise, while coffee, soy and US natural gas prices are likely to fall.
Low oil prices are keeping inflation measures subdued globally and this will encourage many central banks to continue their aggressive easing stance toward year end and into 2016. Indeed, it is only the US Federal Reserve that we expect to tighten policy this year. A result of the benign inflationary environment, central bank accommodation will continue to be a feature of the currency landscape for the foreseeable future. Policy rates will remain low or negative to support economies and this will predictably exert continued downward pressure on exchange rates. Currency wars will therefore remain a consequence of such stimulatory central bank policy, whether or not it is a stated direct policy objective or not.
The outlook for interest rates and central bank stimulus (alongside uncertainty over the Chinese economic growth path) will continue to be the dominant driver of G10 currency pairs. Volatility has been elevated as policy uncertainty roils markets and remains a key investor concern. Currency volatility has moderated recently and we anticipate more subdued volatility levels in Q4.
For more information contact:
ETF Securities Research team ETF Securities (UK) Limited T +44 (0) 207 448 4336 E info@etfsecurities.com
Important Information
This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the ”FCA”).
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iShares NASDAQ 100 SwapUCITSETF USD (Acc) (N100 ETF) med ISIN IE0001ZFMLN7, försöker följa Nasdaq 100®-indexet. Nasdaq 100®-indexet spårar ett urval av 100 aktier valda bland icke-finansiella aktier noterade på NASDAQ-börsen.
Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,20 % p.a. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda syntetiskt med en swap. Utdelningarna i ETFen ackumuleras och återinvesteras.
iShares NASDAQ 100 SwapUCITSETF USD (Acc) är en mycket liten ETF med 4 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 3 oktober 2024 och har sin hemvist i Irland.
Varför N100?
Exponering mot 100 av de största amerikanska och internationella icke-finansiella aktierna noterade på NASDAQ-börsen.
Exponering för företag inom stora industrigrupper inklusive hårdvara och mjukvara, telekommunikation, detaljhandel/grossisthandel och bioteknik.
Använd i din portfölj för att söka tillväxt på medellång till lång sikt även om fonden också kan vara lämplig för kortsiktig exponering mot index.
Investeringsmål
Fonden strävar efter att uppnå avkastning på din investering, genom en kombination av kapitaltillväxt och inkomst på fondens tillgångar, vilket återspeglar den totala nettoavkastningen för NASDAQ 100-indexet (”Indexet”).
IncomeShares passed three milestones in August. Assets under management climbed to almost $66 million, cumulative fund flows topped $72 million, and turnover across London and Xetra listings reached over $27 million. Palantir paid the highest annualised distribution yield at 57.11%. The sections below break the numbers down in more detail.
Cumulative fund flows
Fund flows track how much money investors put into or take out of IncomeShares ETPs (exchange-traded products). Positive flows mean more money coming in than going out – a sign of demand for the products.
Flows have risen every month this year. In January, they stood at $13.7 million. By the end of August, they reached $72.4 million. That’s over $8 million of new money added in August alone – the biggest increase since May.
Trading turnover
Turnover is the total dollar value of IncomeShares ETPs bought and sold on the exchanges. Higher turnover means more activity and liquidity for investors.
Turnover reached $27.3 million in August – the highest on record and more than double January’s $13.0 million. London listings (USD and GBP combined) made up $14.2 million, with Xetra listings close behind at $13.1 million. Both exchanges have seen steady increases through 2025, showing rising interest in income options strategies across the board.
Note: Figures use IDC FX rates as of the August month-end to convert GBP and EUR into USD. We apply the same August rates to all prior months to compare turnover on a like-for-like basis.
Assets under management (AUM)
AUM is the total value of assets held across all IncomeShares ETPs. It grows when new investors buy in, or when the underlying assets rise in value.
AUM grew from $13.8 million in January to $65.8 million at the end of August. It was also $8 million more than in July. Steady inflows and consistent income distributions are helping the product range build scale.
Distribution yields
Distribution yields represent the annualised income paid to investors as a percentage of the current NAV (net asset value), based on the latest month’s yield. IncomeShares ETPs aim to generate this income from selling options. Yields change each month depending on strategy performance and market volatility.
Annualised August yields (ranked highest to lowest):
Our Palantir ETP topped the list with an annualised yield of 57.11% for August, up from 30.57% in July. The stock was volatile in August, trading between $142 and $190. That wider range increased option premiums, which boosted the ETP’s yield. The ETP sells put options on Palantir stock and holds shares – the strategy used for all our single stock ETPs and the Magnificent 7 product.
The Nasdaq 100 ETP paid an annualised yield of 46.44% in August, up slightly from 44.52% in July. At the other end, Gold+ and Microsoft stayed below 7%, reflecting relatively calmer conditions in their underlying assets.
The table below shows the annalised distribution yields for all IncomeShares ETPs so far this year. Note that the bottom eight ETPs launched in late June, so they only have yields for July and August.
Key takeaways
• Fund flows climbed to $72.4 million, with August adding more than $8 million.
• Turnover hit a record $27.3 million, split almost evenly between London and Xetra.
• Palantir topped the yield table at 57%, with Nasdaq 100 and Coinbase also paying above 40%.