If being a contrarian investor is appealing, palladium should be the new go-to precious metal of choice. In terms of where investors have flocked, gold and silver have been courted at the expense of platinum group metals. Palladium in particular has been ignored. Can palladium turn from laggard to leader?
While low prices and heightened economic uncertainty have justifiably seen investors brace portfolios with the defensive properties that gold and silver offer, investor positioning is stretched. Futures market positioning for both gold and silver are hovering over two standard deviations above the respective five year averages. Indeed, both gold and silver net long speculative positioning is at the highest level on record (data commenced in 1994).
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Platinum futures positioning is at the highest since August 2014, while palladium positioning is plumbing historical depths. Net speculative positioning reached the second lowest level in April 2016 since September 2008 (the lowest level was reached in March 2016). While sentiment has begun to rebound (largely due to short covering – longs still haven’t broken a multi-year downtrend), there is plenty of room to move. Exchange traded product flows (ETP) also highlight the laggard nature of palladium, with palladium the only ETP experiencing outflows in 2016.
Palladium, like platinum, has been in a supply deficit for the past four years and another deficit is expected in 2016. Although large above ground stocks persist, further supply off-take resulting from South African wage negotiations should see the price rally continue. Moreover, auto applications accounting for 69% of demand, automotive market strength will see the market tighten further. Although growth has plateaued, car registrations remain robust, rising 4% in the US, and Chinese registrations have posted growth of over 6% in the year to April, respectively.
Palladium also shows the weakest price growth in 2016, with gains of 9.4%, compared to 20+% gains for the other precious metals. Consensus expectations for prices in the precious metals sector indicate that palladium looks the likely outperformer – Bloomberg survey forecasts indicate around a 9% rally by year-end 2016 for palladium, with all other precious metals expected to decline.
Martin Arnold, Global FX & Commodity Strategist at ETF Securities
Martin Arnold joined ETF Securities as a research analyst in 2009 and was promoted to Global FX & Commodity Strategist in 2014. Martin has a wealth of experience in strategy and economics with his most recent role formulating an FX strategy at an independent research consultancy. Martin has a strong background in macroeconomics and financial analysis – gained both at the Reserve Bank of Australia and in the private commercial banking sector – and experience covering a range of asset classes including equities and bonds. Martin holds a Bachelor of Economics from the University of New South Wales (Australia), a Master of Commerce from the University of Wollongong (Australia) and attained a Graduate Diploma of Applied Finance and Investment from the Securities Institute of Australia.
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The rise of Hyperliquid: DeFi’s record-breaking powerhouse
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Research Newsletter
Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com
Disclaimer
The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.
iShares NASDAQ 100 SwapUCITSETF USD (Acc) (N100 ETF) med ISIN IE0001ZFMLN7, försöker följa Nasdaq 100®-indexet. Nasdaq 100®-indexet spårar ett urval av 100 aktier valda bland icke-finansiella aktier noterade på NASDAQ-börsen.
Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,20 % p.a. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda syntetiskt med en swap. Utdelningarna i ETFen ackumuleras och återinvesteras.
iShares NASDAQ 100 SwapUCITSETF USD (Acc) är en mycket liten ETF med 4 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 3 oktober 2024 och har sin hemvist i Irland.
Varför N100?
Exponering mot 100 av de största amerikanska och internationella icke-finansiella aktierna noterade på NASDAQ-börsen.
Exponering för företag inom stora industrigrupper inklusive hårdvara och mjukvara, telekommunikation, detaljhandel/grossisthandel och bioteknik.
Använd i din portfölj för att söka tillväxt på medellång till lång sikt även om fonden också kan vara lämplig för kortsiktig exponering mot index.
Investeringsmål
Fonden strävar efter att uppnå avkastning på din investering, genom en kombination av kapitaltillväxt och inkomst på fondens tillgångar, vilket återspeglar den totala nettoavkastningen för NASDAQ 100-indexet (”Indexet”).
IncomeShares passed three milestones in August. Assets under management climbed to almost $66 million, cumulative fund flows topped $72 million, and turnover across London and Xetra listings reached over $27 million. Palantir paid the highest annualised distribution yield at 57.11%. The sections below break the numbers down in more detail.
Cumulative fund flows
Fund flows track how much money investors put into or take out of IncomeShares ETPs (exchange-traded products). Positive flows mean more money coming in than going out – a sign of demand for the products.
Flows have risen every month this year. In January, they stood at $13.7 million. By the end of August, they reached $72.4 million. That’s over $8 million of new money added in August alone – the biggest increase since May.
Trading turnover
Turnover is the total dollar value of IncomeShares ETPs bought and sold on the exchanges. Higher turnover means more activity and liquidity for investors.
Turnover reached $27.3 million in August – the highest on record and more than double January’s $13.0 million. London listings (USD and GBP combined) made up $14.2 million, with Xetra listings close behind at $13.1 million. Both exchanges have seen steady increases through 2025, showing rising interest in income options strategies across the board.
Note: Figures use IDC FX rates as of the August month-end to convert GBP and EUR into USD. We apply the same August rates to all prior months to compare turnover on a like-for-like basis.
Assets under management (AUM)
AUM is the total value of assets held across all IncomeShares ETPs. It grows when new investors buy in, or when the underlying assets rise in value.
AUM grew from $13.8 million in January to $65.8 million at the end of August. It was also $8 million more than in July. Steady inflows and consistent income distributions are helping the product range build scale.
Distribution yields
Distribution yields represent the annualised income paid to investors as a percentage of the current NAV (net asset value), based on the latest month’s yield. IncomeShares ETPs aim to generate this income from selling options. Yields change each month depending on strategy performance and market volatility.
Annualised August yields (ranked highest to lowest):
Our Palantir ETP topped the list with an annualised yield of 57.11% for August, up from 30.57% in July. The stock was volatile in August, trading between $142 and $190. That wider range increased option premiums, which boosted the ETP’s yield. The ETP sells put options on Palantir stock and holds shares – the strategy used for all our single stock ETPs and the Magnificent 7 product.
The Nasdaq 100 ETP paid an annualised yield of 46.44% in August, up slightly from 44.52% in July. At the other end, Gold+ and Microsoft stayed below 7%, reflecting relatively calmer conditions in their underlying assets.
The table below shows the annalised distribution yields for all IncomeShares ETPs so far this year. Note that the bottom eight ETPs launched in late June, so they only have yields for July and August.
Key takeaways
• Fund flows climbed to $72.4 million, with August adding more than $8 million.
• Turnover hit a record $27.3 million, split almost evenly between London and Xetra.
• Palantir topped the yield table at 57%, with Nasdaq 100 and Coinbase also paying above 40%.