Welcome to the State of Crypto Weekly, an investor-focused newsletter from 21shares that dives into the key trends driving the digital asset landscape.

This week, we’re unveiling our Price Predictions series, unpacking the key drivers for the year ahead:

• Where is Bitcoin headed in 2026?
• Why we think Ethereum can go up to $4,200 this year, and what could drag it down to $1,700.

And, should you find yourself in Davos this week, we would love to connect with you. If you’re up for combining alpine views with crypto conversation, please reach out to our President Duncan Moir, Research Strategist Darius Moukhtarzadeh, or Head of Northern Europe Bernhard Wenger.

Predicting prices is arguably the financial world’s favorite game. In the cryptocurrency market, that interest is multiplied by historical narratives around volatility and market reactions. But what really drives prices? And what do we think is on the cards for Bitcoin and Ethereum in 2026?

WHERE IS BITCOIN HEADED IN 2026?

ETF gravity vs. Macro ceiling

The halving’s influence has peaked. By early 2026, Bitcoin’s price will no longer be driven by this supply shift but by how effectively long-term holders absorb sell-offs from ETFs during shifts in the global economy.

WHY WE THINK ETHEREUM CAN GO UP TO $4,200 THIS YEAR…

And what could drag it down to $1,700

Price action is now driven less by the ultrasound money narrative that shaped Ethereum from 2021-2023 and more by ETF flows and whether real economic throughput on Ethereum can translate into sustainable, profitable consumer applications.

This shift has accelerated over the past quarter as Ethereum’s position as the preferred venue for stablecoins and tokenized assets has further consolidated.

In case you missed it

21shares in the world

Commenting on lower inflation data in the US

Crypto research strategist Matt Mena was quoted on CoinDesk: “This morning’s CPI report has provided the definitive anchor the market needed to clear the lingering data fog from late 2025. Core CPI coming in lower than expected reinforces the Fed’s soft landing narrative and increases chances of further cuts this year, even amid political noise around the DOJ’s investigation into Chair Powell.”

Matt was also quoted on Forbes: ”This Supreme Court ruling on federal tariff authority will be a massive volatility driver for both the dollar and risk assets.”

On our radar

What we’re keeping an eye on

Catch Bruna on CNN Brasil

Our senior sales associate, Bruna Cabús, will be on CNN Brasil tomorrow, Tuesday, at 7:30 PM BRT to talk about crypto. In the meantime, connect with her on LinkedIn.

Darius in Davos

Our very own crypto research strategist Darius Moukhtarzadeh will be speaking at Web3 Hub in Davos on Thursday, January 22.

Connect with us today

If you have any questions or want to discuss a product in detail, please visit our website at www.21shares.com

Digitala valutor

Research Newsletter

Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com

Disclaimer

The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.