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Bitcoin ETFs set the stage
The approval of spot bitcoin ETFs in the US this month might prove to be the most consequential moment for the mainstream adoption of crypto assets.
This will take months and years to play out, but in the near term there is a lot for crypto investors to be excited about. Most notable is the upcoming Bitcoin halving, set for the end of April. This event, which we discuss in detail in our 2024 Crypto Investment Outlook, has historically proven to be very positive for prices.
Regardless of where prices go in the short term, our long-term investment case for crypto has never been stronger. In his latest Notes from the CIO, Samir Kerbage looks at the investment case for bitcoin specifically in the wake of the ETF approvals and the forthcoming halving.
It’s sure to be an exciting year. As always, we are greatly appreciative of your trust in us and are here to answer any questions you may have.
-Your Partners at Hashdex
Market Review
The new year started in the same manner as 2023 ended. In the early days of January, the crypto asset market surged, driven by the anticipation of the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs in the US. On the ETF debut day, the 11th, the Nasdaq Crypto Index (NCI) had accumulated a gain of over 10%, reaching a 21-month high.
However, following the ETF launches there was a reversal in this trend for technical reasons, which is worth delving into. GBTC was a bitcoin trust that did not allow redemptions, holding nearly $30 billion in bitcoins accumulated over more than a decade. Investors could only sell their shares in the secondary market, where, in recent years, there were significant discounts compared to the fair value of the shares. With the increased likelihood of a trust-to-ETF conversion, which would allow redemptions, many traders started buying shares at a discount. GBTC’s conversion to an ETF, approved alongside the new bitcoin ETFs, led to a surge in redemptions, both from traders closing their positions and from investors who had been stuck in the position for a long time. The result was that, despite significant inflows observed in other ETFs, the overall net result in the initial days was a substantial outflow of capital, leading to the sale of bitcoins and pushing the price down.
Between the 11th and the 23rd, both the NCI and bitcoin fell approximately 16%. However, during this period, redemptions in GBTC decreased, while investments in other ETFs were more resilient, causing the net flow to turn positive, meaning an influx of capital. This contributed to the recovery observed in the last eight days of the month, during which the NCI rose 9.3%, closing the month with a 1.4% increase. It marked the fifth consecutive month of growth. Similar to December, the standout performer among the index constituents was Arbitrum, with a gain of 15.8%.
For other indices serving as benchmarks for Hashdex products, the month resulted in losses due to the poor performance of most altcoins. Among the sectoral indices from CF Benchmarks, Smart Contracts Platforms, Decentralized Finance, and Digital Culture experienced declines of 7.2%, 8.3%, and 11.4%, respectively. The Vinter Hashdex Risk Parity Momentum Index lost 8.1%.
It was a positive start to the year for NCI and major crypto assets. The impact of bitcoin ETFs in the US will be felt over the coming months and years, as capital is allocated. We remain very optimistic about the prospects for the crypto asset class for this year and beyond.
Top Stories
Bitcoin mining sustainable energy usage hits all-time high of 54.5%
According to the Bitcoin ESG Forecast, bitcoin mining has reached a historical peak of 54.5% utilization of sustainable energy, marking a 3.6% overall increase in sustainable mining throughout 2023. According to the data, bitcoin mining currently stands as the foremost consumer of sustainable energy compared to other global industries.
BlackRock and Moody’s endorse tokenization
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink asserted that ”Bitcoin surpasses any government” and is a potential long-term store of value, particularly in countries where citizens fear their government’s actions or currency devaluation. Fink also highlighted the significance of crypto ETFs on CNBC, envisioning a future where assets are increasingly tokenized. His comments came out not long before credit rating giant Moody’s released their own report highlighting the benefits of tokenization.
Bullish sentiment shifts to Ethereum
Ether (ETH) experienced a pretty significant bullish reversal on its BTC pair early in the month. This move suggests that market participants have started rotating capital to the second largest crypto asset after more than a year of underperformance against BTC, in what could be explained by a narrative shift from spot BTC ETFs to potential spot ETH ETFs coming later in 2024.
This material expresses Hashdex Asset Management Ltd. and its subsidiaries and affiliates (“Hashdex”)’s opinion for informational purposes only and does not consider the investment objectives, financial situation or individual needs of one or a particular group of investors. We recommend consulting specialized professionals for investment decisions. Investors are advised to carefully read the prospectus or regulations before investing their funds. The information and conclusions contained in this material may be changed at any time, without prior notice. Nothing contained herein constitutes an offer, solicitation or recommendation regarding any investment management product or service. This information is not directed at or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Hashdex to any registration or licensing requirements within such jurisdiction. No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of Hashdex. By receiving or reviewing this material, you agree that this material is confidential intellectual property of Hashdex and that you will not directly or indirectly copy, modify, recast, publish or redistribute this material and the information therein, in whole or in part, or otherwise make any commercial use of this material without Hashdex’s prior written consent.
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As April winds down, markets remain on edge, with escalating tariffs and renewed trade tensions keeping volatility in focus. In this summary of our full-length newsletter, we spotlight gold and gold equities, both of which have surged to record levels. We also take a step back from the day-to-day noise in crypto to explore the broader shifts in the regulatory landscape in our latest Whitepaper and present Celestia in detail. Finally, we assess how Moat indexes have held up and evolved amid the turbulence.
Your VanEck Europe team wishes you a great read.
Featured Articles
🥇 Are Gold Mining Equities Regaining Attention Amid Rising Gold Prices?
Gold & Gold mining equities tend to shine during stress periods
Source: VanEck, World Gold Council.
Gold has attracted renewed interest from investors amid concerns about inflation, currency volatility, and overall market uncertainty. Gold mining companies have recently reported improved profit margins and cash generation, with some initiating share buybacks and maintaining relatively strong balance sheets. Despite these developments, many continue to trade below their historical valuation averages.
While historical trends indicate that gold and gold mining equities have outperformed during certain periods of market stress, these patterns may not repeat under different economic conditions. Performance can be influenced by a range of factors including interest rates, central bank policy, geopolitical developments, and investor sentiment.
→ Read more
⚖️ Whitepaper Highlights: How New Crypto Regulations May Shape the Future
Cryptocurrencies are entering a new era. With the re-election of Donald Trump and the implementation of the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation, digital assets are moving into a landscape defined not just by innovation, but also by regulatory clarity.
MiCA’s structured and transparent approach aims to promote legitimacy, safeguard investors, and enhance trust in digital asset markets across Europe. It could also serve as a blueprint for other jurisdictions looking to regulate crypto effectively.
→ Read the Whitepaper Highlights
⛓️ Introduction to Celestia
Most blockchains, like Ethereum or Bitcoin, are monolithic which means they perform all major functions (consensus, data availability, and execution) on a single layer. This design ensures security but according to new modular networks, limits scalability and flexibility.
The modular blockchain thesis, which Celestia is leading, proposes separation of layers and respective responsibilities in the network.
→ Read more
Note: This article in not accessible to our UK readers.
🌊 Riding the Gold Wave
Chasing the Vein: Fund Flows into Gold Miners
Source: Mining.com. Data as of 21 March 2025. Note: Data covers 493 funds with combined assets under management of $62 billion.
U.S. equity markets experienced significant declines during the month of March. Meanwhile, spot gold price recorded new all-time highs, surpassing the $3,000 per ounce mark on 14 March and closing at a record price of $3123.57 on March 31, a 9.30% ($265.73) monthly gain. As of 31 March, gold prices have risen by 93.61% over the past five years (1). Investors should keep in mind that past performance is not representative of future results.
The gold miners, as represented by the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDMNTR), outperformed significantly, up 15.51% during March (2). This gain reflects both their operational leverage to rising gold prices and market perceptions of relative value. However, gold miners can also be subject to heightened volatility, operational risks, and sensitivity to commodity price swings.
While gold and gold equities may serve as diversifiers in a portfolio due to their historically low correlations with many asset classes, investors should remain mindful of the inherent risks, including price volatility, currency movements, and shifts in investor sentiment that can lead to rapid reversals in performance.
→ Read more
🌪️ Moat Stocks Weather Tariff Tumble
Market turbulence in March weighed on stocks. The Moat Index was not immune to the market turmoil, as it declined along with the broad U.S. equity market ending the month lower. However, the Moat Index showed resilience relative to the S&P 500—thanks in part to defensive sector resilience and underweight exposure to mega-caps.
At the same time, the SMID Moat Index lagged small and mid-caps in March. Smaller U.S. stocks were also impacted by global trade tensions and economic growth concerns with the broad small- and mid-cap benchmarks falling during the month. However, year-to-date, the SMID Moat Index remains ahead of the broader small- and mid-cap markets.
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(1) Source: World Gold Council, ICE Data Services, FactSet Research Systems Inc.
(2) Source: Financial Times.
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