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Bitcoin Breaks $50K mark; Are We Out of the Bear đŸ» ❄?

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In this report, 21Shares walk you through Bitcoin’s journey toward the $50K mark, Ethereum’s upgrade updates, and how a new experimental token standard has led to a surge in on-chain activity. Last but not least, we’ll give you the key takeaways from Solana’s post-mortem report explaining the cause of its five-hour outage.

In this report, 21Shares walk you through Bitcoin’s journey toward the $50K mark, Ethereum’s upgrade updates, and how a new experimental token standard has led to a surge in on-chain activity. Last but not least, we’ll give you the key takeaways from Solana’s post-mortem report explaining the cause of its five-hour outage.

Bitcoin Breaks the $50K Mark

Last week Bitcoin saw accumulation levels reminiscent of crypto’s bull run in 2021. However, this time around, the accumulation comes with higher accountability and much less noise, thanks to the abscence of bad actors, such as FTX’s former CEO Sam Bankman-Fried, along with growing institutional appetite. Bitcoin miners have also become reserved sellers, cutting their daily sales by about 62.5% from November and December, according to CryptoQuant, despite the drop in fees. This could mean that Bitcoin miners are positioning themselves ahead of the Bitcoin halving scheduled in 62 days.

As shown in Figure 1, selling pressure on GBTC has diminished over the past week, leading spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds to step up as the world’s biggest BTC holder with $34.6 billion in assets under management. However, Bitcoin’s path forward is not without challenges. As covered previously, bankrupt FTX and Genesis are anticipated to liquidate their recovered assets to compensate their customers. Aside from the GBTC it sold in January, FTX has $7B in assets ($560M in BTC, as of December 2023) while Genesis is waiting for the court to greenlight its $1.6B in GBTC to liquidate. We may see some selling pressure, potentially impacting medium-term price movements, unless the accumulation of BTC continues.

Figure 1: Spot Bitcoin ETF Flows (YTD)

Source: Bloomberg

Ethereum Nears Final Stage of Dencun Upgrade as New Token Standard Sparks On-Chain Activity Surge

After the third successful rehearsal on testnet on February 7, Ethereum is set to implement the Dencun upgrade on Mainnet on March 17. This upgrade aims to significantly reduce settlement costs for scaling solutions like Arbitrum and Optimism by introducing a new data container, ”Blobs,” which stores data more efficiently while simplifying transaction verification. Anticipated to cut costs for Layer 2 solutions by around 90%, this milestone aligns with Ethereum’s long-term roadmap to enhance transaction throughput and lower gas expenses for users.

That said, the upgrade wasn’t the only source of enthusiasm for Ethereum as a new token standard has surfaced. Dubbed ERC404, the experimental standard integrates attributes from ERC-20 (fungible), like transferability and divisibility for its fractionalized tokens, and ERC-721 (non-fungible) standard for its unique identifier feature to track the underlying NFT. ERC404 has the potential for native fractionalizing of digital assets like collectibles and tokenized real-world assets such as funds and real estate without needing third-party solutions.

However, its use of a minting and burning mechanism has drawn criticism. Buying the tokens involves minting the NFT, while selling them involves selling the NFT to fractionalize the asset’s ownership into smaller transferable units. This process can incur significant costs, unlike a traditional token swap, due to Ethereum’s high fees. This is clear from the rising fees, which have more than doubled on the network in the past two weeks, as depicted in Figure 2 below. Finally, considering ERC404 stands as an unofficial token standard advocated by independent initiatives, lacking endorsement from the foundation—though this could potentially shift in the future—it has not been subjected to comprehensive auditing, thus posing potential vulnerabilities for projects built upon it. Nevertheless, the new trend shows the willingness to continue pushing innovation on top of the largest smart-contract platform, Ethereum, while increasing its revenue.

Figure 2: Ethereum Transaction Fees

Source: The Block

Solana’s Post Mortem

On February 6, Solana experienced a block production halt lasting approximately five hours due to an identified issue termed an ”infinite recompile loop.” The Solana Foundation has since published a post-mortem outlining what went wrong. This bug, previously encountered in a testnet environment nearly 18 months ago, impacted 95% of validators and halted the finalization of transactions. In essence, The glitch was related to how the blockchain remembers and uses certain pieces of code, causing it to get stuck in a loop and stop processing transactions. Solana developers worked quickly to fix the problem by updating the system and restarting it from a safe point.

They solved the immediate issue by making sure the glitch couldn’t happen again, with plans to make more improvements later. Finally, while Solana experienced outages in the past, its historical price performance indicates that its investors are becoming increasingly immune to such technical issues over time, as shown below in Figure 3. The network’s AuM also surged to an 18-month high, increasing by 11% week-over-week since the incident to reach $1.86B, exemplifying the users’ unfazed confidence in the network.

Figure 3: Solana’s historical performance following five of its previous outages

Source: Blockworks

This Week’s Calendar

Source: 21Shares, Forex Factory

Research Newsletter

Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com

Disclaimer

The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.

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HÄller ETF:er pÄ att ta över?

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I EFN direkt den 3 april diskuterades trenden att handla med börsnoterade fonder, ETF:er. Tillsammans med oss i studion har vi Johanna Englundh, redaktör för Morningstar, för att prata om Àmnet.

I EFN direkt den 3 april diskuterades trenden att handla med börsnoterade fonder, ETF:er. Tillsammans med oss i studion har vi Johanna Englundh, redaktör för Morningstar, för att prata om ämnet.

Den stora skillnaden på ETF:er (Exchange Traded Fund) och traditionella fonder är att ETF:er handlas på börsen som aktier eller andra värdepapper. Vilket innebär att man kan köpa och sälja dem i realtid, till den aktuella kursen.

Johanna Englundh berättar att ETF:er är en stark trend i USA som bland annat drivs av skattemässiga fördelar, vilket vi inte har i Sverige. Det incitamentet till att investera finns därför inte i Sverige vilket även speglas i tillgångarna.

Programledare: Anna Stjernquist

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HFEX ETF investerar i hela Asien men inte i Japan

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HSBC MSCI AC Far East ex Japan UCITS ETF USD (Dist) (HFEX ETF) med ISIN IE00022VXYM7, försöker följa MSCI AC Far East ex Japan-indexet. MSCI AC Far East ex Japan-indexet spÄrar aktiemarknaderna i tillvÀxt- och utvecklade lÀnder i den östasiatiska regionen, exklusive Japan.

HSBC MSCI AC Far East ex Japan UCITS ETF USD (Dist) (HFEX ETF) med ISIN IE00022VXYM7, försöker följa MSCI AC Far East ex Japan-indexet. MSCI AC Far East ex Japan-indexet spårar aktiemarknaderna i tillväxt- och utvecklade länder i den östasiatiska regionen, exklusive Japan.

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,45 % per år. HSBC MSCI AC Far East ex Japan UCITS ETF USD (Dist) är den billigaste ETF som följer MSCI AC Far East ex Japan-indexet. Denna ETF replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom samplingsteknik (köper ett urval av de mest relevanta indexbeståndsdelarna). Utdelningarna i ETFen delas ut till investerarna (kvartalsvis).

HSBC MSCI AC Far East ex Japan UCITS ETF USD (Dist) är en mycket liten ETF med tillgångar på 8 miljoner GBP under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 12 juli 2022 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Investeringsmål

Fonden strävar efter att så nära som möjligt följa avkastningen för MSCI AC Far East ex Japan Index (”Indexet”). Fonden kommer att investera i eller få exponering mot aktier i företag som utgör indexet.

Investeringspolicy

Indexet består av stora och medelstora företag från både utvecklade och tillväxtmarknadsländer i Fjärran Östern (exklusive Japan), enligt definitionen av indexleverantören. Fonden kommer att förvaltas passivt och har som mål att investera i aktier i bolagen i i stort sett samma proportion som i Index. Det kan dock finnas omständigheter då det inte är möjligt eller praktiskt för fonden att investera i alla indexets beståndsdelar.

Om fonden inte kan investera direkt i de företag som utgör indexet kan den få exponering genom att använda andra investeringar såsom depåbevis, derivat eller fonder. Fonden kan investera i kinesiska A-aktier genom Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect och/ eller Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect och i CAAPs eller genom fonder. Fonden kan investera upp till 35 % i värdepapper från en enskild emittent under exceptionella marknadsförhållanden och upp till 10 % i andra fonder. Fonden kan investera upp till 10 % i totalavkastningsswappar och differenskontrakt.

Handla HFEX ETF

HSBC MSCI AC Far East ex Japan UCITS ETF USD (Dist) (HFEX ETF) är en börshandlad fond (ETF) som handlas på London Stock Exchange.

London Stock Exchange är en marknad som få svenska banker och nätmäklare erbjuder access till, men DEGIRO gör det.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
London Stock ExchangeGBPHFEJ
London Stock ExchangeUSDHFEX

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CNE1000002H1China Construction Bank Corp Class HKinaHKD1,19864
TW0002317005Hon Hai Precision Industry Co LtdTaiwanTWD1,15303

Innehav kan komma att förändras

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Expertpanel: ETF:er eller fonder?

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Under livesÀndningen kommer vi att dyka in i hur marknaden för ETF:er eller fonder ser ut och hur du kan navigera olika placeringsstrategier. Vi kommer Àven att beröra hur du kan förhÄlla dig till risker, avgifter och konkreta diversifieringsmodeller.

Under livesändningen kommer vi att dyka in i hur marknaden för ETF:er eller fonder ser ut och hur du kan navigera olika placeringsstrategier. Vi kommer även att beröra hur du kan förhålla dig till risker, avgifter och konkreta diversifieringsmodeller.

Vi tar frågor mot slutet. Vi hoppas på att hinna med alla! Det går bra att ställa frågor i chatten eller i ett DM på Instagram

Expertpanelen består av:

Handelsbanken

Carl-Henrik Lindberg

Chef Passiva Fonder och ETF:er

Nordnet

Ara Mustafa, Investment coach

Nasdaq

Helena Wedin, Chef ETF:er och ETP:er Europa

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